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1.
ABSTRACT

Multisource rainfall products can be used to overcome the absence of gauged precipitation data for hydrological applications. This study aims to evaluate rainfall estimates from the Chinese S-band weather radar (CINRAD-SA), operational raingauges, multiple satellites (CMORPH, ERA-Interim, GPM, TRMM-3B42RT) and the merged satellite–gauge rainfall products, CMORPH-GC, as inputs to a calibrated probability distribution model (PDM) on the Qinhuai River Basin in Nanjing, China. The Qinhuai is a middle-sized catchment with an area of 799 km2. All sources used in this study are capable of recording rainfall at high spatial and temporal resolution (3 h). The discrepancies between satellite and radar data are analysed by statistical comparison with raingauge data. The streamflow simulation results from three flood events suggest that rainfall estimates using CMORPH-GC, TRMM-3B42RT and S-band radar are more accurate than those using the other rainfall sources. These findings indicate the potential to use satellite and radar data as alternatives to raingauge data in hydrological applications for ungauged or poorly gauged basins.  相似文献   

2.
The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.  相似文献   

3.
Satellite and reanalysis precipitation products are widely utilized for streamflow simulation, which is one critical hydrological application, especially for ungauged regions. Possible ways to improve streamflow simulation are investigated in this study by merging multi-source precipitation products, or directly merging streamflow simulated with different precipitation products. Two satellite-based precipitation products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (3B42 Version 7) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and one reanalysis precipitation product, National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) are selected. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is used to merge multi-source precipitation estimates and streamflow simulations. The results show that merging multi-source precipitation products made little difference to improve streamflow simulation. Merging multi-source streamflow simulations using the BMA generally achieved better performance on streamflow simulation, indicating that this approach is more efficient than merging multi-source precipitation products.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are used to describe the hydrological behaviour of a river catchment. Many different models exist to simulate the physical processes of the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Some of them are based on simple and easy-to-handle concepts, others on highly sophisticated physical and mathematical approaches that require extreme effort in data input and handling. Recently, mathematical methods using linguistic variables, rather than conventional numerical variables applied extensively in other disciplines, are encroaching in hydrological studies. Among these is the application of a fuzzy rule-based modelling. In this paper an attempt was made to develop fuzzy rule-based routines to simulate the different processes involved in the generation of runoff from precipitation. These routines were implemented within a conceptual, modular, and semi-distributed model-the HBV model. The investigation involved determining which modules of this model could be replaced by the new approach and the necessary input data were identified. A fuzzy rule-based routine was then developed for each of the modules selected, and application and validation of the model was done on a rainfall-runoff analysis of the Neckar River catchment, in southwest Germany.  相似文献   

5.
Book reviews     
Abstract

Statistical and deterministic modelling estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies that can affect flood-plain ecology in the upper Ahuriri River catchment, a mountainous high country catchment in the New Zealand Southern Alps, were evaluated. Statistical analysis of 46 years of historical data showed that floods are best modelled by the generalized extreme value and lognormal distributions. We evaluated application of the HEC-HMS model to this environment by modelling flood events of various frequencies. Model results were validated and compared with the statistical estimates. The SCS curve number method was used for losses and runoff generation, and the model was very sensitive to curve number. The HEC-HMS flood estimates matched the statistical estimates reasonably well, and, over all return periods, were on average approximately 1% greater. However, the model generally underestimated flood peaks up to the 25-year event and overestimated magnitudes above this. The results compared well with other regional estimates, including studies based on L-moments, and showed that this catchment has smaller floods than other similarly-sized catchments in the Southern Alps.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor H. Aksoy

Citation Caruso, B.S., Rademaker, M., Balme, A., and Cochrane, T.A., 2013. Flood modelling in a high country mountain catchment, New Zealand: comparing statistical and deterministic model estimates for ecological flows. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 328–341.  相似文献   

6.
ABSTRACT

We evaluated precipitation estimates, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42V7), CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis), GHCN-D (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Version 3.24), and Daymet, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The suitability and quality of TRMM, CFSR and Daymet in forcing the SWAT-based hydrological model was examined by means of model calibration. A calibrated TRMM-driven model slightly overestimated streamflow, while a calibrated CFSR-driven model performed worst. The Daymet-driven model performance was as good as the GHCN-D-driven model in reproducing observations. In addition, the temperature was far less sensitive compared with precipitation in driving SWAT. TRMM 3B42V7 showed great potential in streamflow simulation. The results and findings from this study provide new insights into the suitability of precipitation products for hydrological and climate impact studies in large basins, particularly those in typical climates and physiographic settings similar to the Midwestern USA.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

Different approaches used in hydrological modelling are compared in terms of the way each one takes the rainfall data into account. We examine the errors associated with accounting for rainfall variability, whether in hydrological modelling (distributed vs lumped models) or in computing catchment rainfall, as well as the impact of each approach on the representativeness of the parameters it uses. The database consists of 1859 rainfall events, distributed on 500 basins, located in the southeast of France with areas ranging from 6.2 to 2851 km2. The study uses as reference the hydrographs computed by a distributed hydrological model from radar rainfall. This allows us to compare and to test the effects of various simplifications to the process when taking rainfall information (complete rain field vs sampled rainfall) and rainfall–runoff modelling (lumped vs distributed) into account. The results appear to show that, in general, the sampling effect can lead to errors in discharge at the outlet that are as great as, or even greater than, those one would get with a fully lumped approach. We found that small catchments are more sensitive to the uncertainties in catchment rainfall input generated by sampling rainfall data as seen through a raingauge network. Conversely, the larger catchments are more sensitive to uncertainties generated when the spatial variability of rainfall events is not taken into account. These uncertainties can be compensated for relatively easily by recalibrating the parameters of the hydrological model, although such recalibrations cause the parameter in question to completely lose physical meaning.

Citation Arnaud, P., Lavabre, J., Fouchier, C., Diss, S. & Javelle, P. (2011) Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 397–410.  相似文献   

8.
Rainfall data are a fundamental input for effective planning, designing and operating of water resources projects. A well‐designed rain gauge network is capable of providing accurate estimates of necessary areal average and/or point rainfall estimates at any desired ungauged location in a catchment. Increasing network density with additional rain gauge stations has been the main underlying criterion in the past to reduce error and uncertainty in rainfall estimates. However, installing and operation of additional stations in a network involves large cost and manpower. Hence, the objective of this study is to design an optimal rain gauge network in the Middle Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia. The optimal positioning of additional stations as well as optimally relocating of existing redundant stations using the kriging‐based geostatistical approach was undertaken in this study. Reduction of kriging error was considered as an indicator for optimal spatial positioning of the stations. Daily rainfall records of 1997 (an El Niño year) and 2010 (a La Niña year) were used for the analysis. Ordinary kriging was applied for rainfall data interpolation to estimate the kriging error for the network. The results indicate that significant reduction in the kriging error can be achieved by the optimal spatial positioning of the additional as well as redundant stations. Thus, the obtained optimal rain gauge network is expected to be appropriate for providing high quality rainfall estimates over the catchment. The concept proposed in this study for optimal rain gauge network design through combined use of additional and redundant stations together is equally applicable to any other catchment. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

Data-based mechanistic (DBM) models can offer a parsimonious representation of catchment dynamics. They have been shown to provide reliable accurate flood forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this work, the DBM methodology is applied to forecast flash floods in a small Alpine catchment. Compared to previous DBM modelling studies, the catchment response is rapid. The use of novel radar-derived ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts based on analogues to drive the DBM model allows the forecast horizon to be increased to a level useful for emergency response. The characterization of the predictive uncertainty in the resulting hydrological forecasts is discussed and a framework for its representation illustrated.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

A biannual survey of physico-chemical quality indices of 104 irrigation-water wells located in a cultivated plain of a Mediterranean island catchment was conducted using a multi-parameter probe. The campaign was planned so as to differentiate between the dry and wet seasons. The acquired data constituted the test bed for evaluating the results and the features of four spatial interpolation methods, i.e. ordinary kriging, universal kriging, inverse distance weighted and nearest neighbours, against those of the recently introduced bilinear surface smoothing (BSS). In several cases, BSS outperformed the other interpolation methods, especially during the two-fold cross-validation procedure. The study emphasizes the fact that both in situ measurements and good mathematical techniques for studying the spatial distribution of water quality indices are pivotal to agricultural practice management. In the specific case studied, the spatio-temporal variability of water quality parameters and the need for monitoring were evident, as low irrigation water quality was encountered throughout the study area.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.  相似文献   

12.
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13.
Abstract

Gridded meteorological data are available for all of Norway as time series dating from 1961. A new way of interpolating precipitation in space from observed values is proposed. Based on the criteria that interpolated precipitation fields in space should be consistent with observed spatial statistics, such as spatial mean, variance and intermittency, spatial fields of precipitation are simulated from a gamma distribution with parameters determined from observed data, adjusted for intermittency. The simulated data are distributed in space, using the spatial pattern derived from kriging. The proposed method is compared to indicator kriging and to the current methodology used for producing gridded precipitation data. Cross-validation gave similar results for the three methods with respect to RMSE, temporal mean and standard deviation, whereas a comparison on estimated spatial variance showed that the new method has a near perfect agreement with observations. Indicator kriging underestimated the spatial variance by 60–80% and the current method produced a significant scatter in its estimates.

Citation Skaugen, T. & Andersen, J. (2010) Simulated precipitation fields with variance-consistent interpolation. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(5), 676–686.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

A novel approach is presented for combining spatial and temporal detail from newly available TRMM-based data sets to derive hourly rainfall intensities at 1-km spatial resolution for hydrological modelling applications. Time series of rainfall intensities derived from 3-hourly 0.25° TRMM 3B42 data are merged with a 1-km gridded rainfall climatology based on TRMM 2B31 data to account for the sub-grid spatial distribution of rainfall intensities within coarse-scale 0.25° grid cells. The method is implemented for two dryland catchments in Tunisia and Senegal, and validated against gauge data. The outcomes of the validation show that the spatially disaggregated and intensity corrected TRMM time series more closely approximate ground-based measurements than non-corrected data. The method introduced here enables the generation of rainfall intensity time series with realistic temporal and spatial detail for dynamic modelling of runoff and infiltration processes that are especially important to water resource management in arid regions.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Tarnavsky, E., Mulligan, M. and Husak, G., 2012. Spatial disaggregation and intensity correction of TRMM-based rainfall time series for hydrological applications in dryland catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 248–264.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km2 tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D., 2012. Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1543–1561.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT

This study examines the performance of three hydrological models, namely the artificial neural network (ANN) model, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning-D (HBV-D) model, and the Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) over the upper reaches of the Huai River basin. The assessment is done by using databases of different temporal resolution and by further examining the applicability of SWIM for different catchment sizes. The results show that at monthly scale the performance of the ANN model is better than that of HBV-D and SWIM. The ANN model can be applied at any temporal scale as it establishes an artificial precipitation–runoff relationship for various time scales by only using monthly precipitation, temperature and runoff data. However, at daily scale the performance of both HBV-D and SWIM are similar or even better than the ANN model. In addition, the performance of SWIM at a small catchment size (less than 10 000 km2) is much better than at a larger catchment size. In view of climate change modelling, HBV-D and SWIM might be integrated in a dynamical atmosphere-water-cycle modelling rather than the ANN model due to their use of observed physical links instead of artificial relations within a black box.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the question of whether a lumped hydrological model driven with lumped daily precipitation time series from a univariate single-site weather generator can produce equally good results compared to using a multivariate multi-site weather generator, where synthetic precipitation is first generated at multiple sites and subsequently lumped. Three different weather generators were tested: a univariate “Richardson type” model, an adapted univariate Richardson type model with an improved reproduction of the autocorrelation of precipitation amounts and a semi-parametric multi-site weather generator. The three modelling systems were evaluated in two Alpine study areas by comparing the hydrological output with respect to monthly and daily statistics as well as extreme design flows. The application of a univariate Richardson type weather generator to lumped precipitation time series requires additional attention. Established parametric distribution functions for single-site precipitation turned out to be unsuitable for lumped precipitation time series and led to a large bias in the hydrological simulations. Combining a multi-site weather generator with a hydrological model produced the least bias.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

The generation of reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPEs) through use of raingauge and radar data is an important issue. This study investigates the impacts of radar QPEs with different densities of raingauge networks on rainfall–runoff processes through a semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoir rainfall–runoff model. The spatial variation structures of the radar QPE, raingauge QPE and radar-gauge residuals are examined to review the current raingauge network, and a compact raingauge network is identified via the kriging method. An analysis of the large-scale spatial characteristics for use with a hydrological model is applied to investigate the impacts of a raingauge network coupled with radar QPEs on the modelled rainfall–runoff processes. Since the precision in locating the storm centre generally represents how well the large-scale variability is reproduced; the results show not only the contribution of kriging to identify a compact network coupled with radar QPE, but also that spatial characteristics of rainfalls do affect the hydrographs.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Pan, T.-Y., Li, M.-Y., Lin, Y.-J., Chang, T.-J., Lai, J.-S., and Tan, Y.-C., 2014. Sensitivity analysis of the hydrological response of the Gaping River basin to radar-raingauge quantitative precipitation estimates. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1335–1352. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923969  相似文献   

19.
Probable maximum flood (PMF) event estimation has challenged the scientific community for many years. Although the concept of the PMF is often applied, there is no consensus on the methods that should be applied to estimate it. In PMF estimation, the spatio-temporal representation of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) as well as the choice of modelling approach is often not theoretically founded. Moreover, it is not clear how these choices influence PMF estimation itself. In this study, combinations of three different spatio-temporal PMP representations and three different modelling approaches are applied to determine the PMF of a mesoscale basin keeping the antecedent catchment conditions and the total precipitation amount constant. The nine resulting PMF estimations are used to evaluate each combination of methods. The results show that basic methods allow for a rough estimation of the PMF. In cases where a physically plausible and reliable estimation is required, sophisticated PMP and PMF estimation approaches are recommended.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione  相似文献   

20.
In a context of water scarcity in Peruvian Pacific catchments as a crucial issue for Peru, added to the paucity of data availability, we propose a methodology that provides new perspectives for freshwater availability estimation as a base reference for unimpaired conditions. Under those considerations, a regional discharge of 709 m3/s to the Pacific Ocean is estimated with a significant increasing trend of about 43 m3/s per decade over the 1970 – 2010 period. To represent the multidecadal behaviour of freshwater runoff along the region, a regional runoff analysis is proposed based on hydrological modelling at annual and monthly time step for unimpaired conditions over the whole 1970 – 2010 period. Differential Split‐Sample Tests are used to assess the hydrological modelling robustness of the GR1A and GR2M conceptual lumped models, showing a satisfactory transposability from dry to wet years inside the thresholds defined for Nash–Sutcliffe and bias criteria. This allowed relating physical catchment characteristics with calibrated and validated model parameters, thus offering a regional perspective for dryland conditions in the study area (e.g., the anticlockwise hysteresis relationship found for seasonal precipitation–runoff relationship) as well as the impacts of climate variability and catchment characteristics.  相似文献   

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