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1.
ABSTRACTThe trends in hydrological and climatic time series data of Urmia Lake basin in Iran were examined using the four different versions of the Mann-Kendall (MK) approach: (i) the original MK test; (ii) the MK test considering the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation; (iii) the MK test considering the effect of all autocorrelation or sample size; and (iv) the MK test considering the Hurst coefficient. Identification of hydrological and climatic data trends was carried out at monthly and annual time scales for 25 temperature, 35 precipitation and 35 streamflow gauging stations selected from the Urmia Lake basin. Mann-Kendall and Pearson tests were also applied to explore the relationships between temperature, precipitation and streamflow trends. The results show statistically significant upward and downward trends in the annual and monthly hydrological and climatic variables. The upward trends in temperature, unlike streamflow, are much more pronounced than the downward trends, but for precipitation the behaviour of trend is different on monthly and annual time scales. Furthermore, the trend results were affected by the different approaches. Specifically, the number of stations showing trends in hydrological and climatic variables decreased significantly (up to 50%) when the fourth test was considered instead of the first and the absolute value of the Z statistic for most of the time series was reduced. The results of correlations between streamflow and climatic variables showed that the streamflow in Urmia Lake basin is more sensitive to changes in temperature than those of precipitation. The observed decreases in streamflow and increases in temperature in the Urmia Lake basin in recent decades may thus have serious implications for water resources management under the warming climate with the expected population growth and increased freshwater consumption in this region.
Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang 相似文献
2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract Monthly precipitation and temperature trends of 51 stations in the Yangtze basin from 1950–2002 were analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation and temperature data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95 and 99% significance levels were detected. The monthly mean temperature, precipitation, summer precipitation and monthly mean runoff at Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations were analysed. The results indicate that spatial distribution of precipitation and temperature trends is different. The middle and lower Yangtze basin is dominated by upward precipitation trend but by somewhat downward temperature trend; while downward precipitation trend and upward temperature trend occur in the upper Yangtze basin. This is because increasing precipitation leads to increasing cloud coverage and, hence, results in decreasing ground surface temperature. Average monthly precipitation and temperature analysis for the upper, middle and lower Yangtze basin, respectively, further corroborate this viewpoint. Analysis of precipitation trend for these three regions and of runoff trends for the Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations indicated that runoff trends respond well to the precipitation trends. Historical flood trend analysis also shows that floods in the middle and lower Yangtze basin are in upward trend. The above findings indicate that the middle and lower Yangtze basin is likely to face more serious flood disasters. The research results help in further understanding the influence of climatic changes on floods in the Yangtze basin, providing scientific background for the flood control activities in large catchments in Asia. 相似文献
3.
L. Ribeiro 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1840-1852
AbstractToday, more than ever, there is a need to implement robust statistical methods to ensure the proper evaluation of water resources data to support decision makers in water resources planning and management. Graphing or mapping data for visualization is the easiest way to communicate trends, especially to a non-technical audience. This paper describes the use of an approach that combines the Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope test and principal component analysis to detect and map the monthly trends of piezometric time series and their magnitude in the period 1979–2008. The data were obtained in 23 shallow wells in the alluvial aquifers of the Elqui River basin in central Chile, an area characterized by scarce water resources and intense agricultural and mining activities. The results show significant downward trends at the majority of the wells. Because groundwater in these shallow wells is highly dependent on the water in the river and its tributaries, the reasons for these downward trends are mainly related to a decrease of streamflow observed in the Elqui River. The streamflow is derived from mountain snowmelt rather than from rainfall, which showed no flow trend during the same period. 相似文献
4.
An analysis of spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Beijiang River basin, Guangdong Province, China during 1959–2003 was performed using 17 time series (including monthly, annual, wet season, dry season, early flood period and late flood period totals) both on station based and sub‐basin based data sets. Two nonparametric methods (Mann–Kendall and Sen's T) were used for data analysis. The results showed that (1) downward trends of temporal distribution were mostly detected during the early flood period, especially in May, while upward trends were observed in July and the dry season; (2) downward trends of spatial distribution were mostly detected in the southern Beijiang River basin, while upward trends were observed north of this area. Our results indicated a delayed rainy season and a northward trend of the precipitation belt compared to recent years. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better. 相似文献
6.
AbstractStatistically significant FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) and adjusted Hargreaves (AHARG) reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends at monthly, seasonal and annual time scales were analysed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 1 and 5% significance levels. Meteorological data were used from 12 meteorological stations in Serbia, which has a humid climate, for the period 1980–2010. Web-based software for conducting the trend analyses was developed. All of the trends significant at the 1 and 5% significance levels were increasing. The FAO-56 PM ET0 trends were almost similar to the AHARG trends. On the seasonal time scale, for the majority of stations significant increasing trends occurred in summer, while no significant positive or negative trends were detected by the trend tests in autumn for the AHARG series. Moreover, 70% of the stations were characterized by significant increasing trends for both annual ET0 series. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. GrimaldiCitation Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S., 2013. Analysis of trends in reference evapotranspiration data in a humid climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 165–180. 相似文献
7.
Abstract The objectives of this work are: (a) to statistically test and quantify the decreasing trends of streamflow and sediment discharge of the Yellow River in China during 1950–2005, (b) to identify change points or transition years of the decreasing trends, and (c) to diagnose whether the decreasing trends were caused by precipitation changes or human intervention, or both. The results show that significant decreasing trends in annual streamflow and sediment discharge have existed since the late 1950s at three stations located in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River (P?=?0.01). Change-point analyses further revealed that transition years existed and that rapid decline in streamflow and sediment discharge began in 1985 in most parts of the basin (P?=?0.05). Adoption of conservation measures in the 1980s and 1990s corroborates the identified transition years. Double-mass curves of precipitation vs streamflow (sediment) for the periods before and after the transition years show remarkable decreases in proportionality of streamflow (sediment) generation. All percentiles of streamflow and sediment discharge after the transition years showed rapid reduction. In the absence of significantly decreasing precipitation trends, it is concluded that the decreasing trends were very likely caused by human intervention. Relative to the period before the transition, human intervention during 1985–2005 reduced cumulative streamflow by 13.5, 14.3 and 24.6% and cumulative sediment discharge by 29.0, 24.8 and 26.5%, at Toudaoguai, Huayuankou and Lijin, respectively, showing the quantitative conservation effect in the basin. Citation Gao, P., Zhang, X.-C., Mu, X.-M., Wang, F., Li, R. & Zhang, X. (2010) Trend and change-point analyses of streamflow and sediment discharge in the Yellow River during 1950–2005. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 275–285. 相似文献
8.
Jin Huang Jinchi Zhang Zengxin Zhang Chong-Yu Xu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(2):337-351
Water resources and soil erosion are the most important environmental concerns in the Yangtze River basin, where soil erosion and sediment yield are closely related to rainfall erosivity. The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the rainfall erosivity in the Yangtze River basin of China during 1960–2005 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall test is employed to detect the trends during 1960–2005, and the T test is applied to investigate possible changes between 1991–2005 and 1960–1990. Meanwhile the Rescaled Range Analysis is used for exploring future trend of rainfall erosivity. Moreover the continuous wavelet transform technique is using studying the periodicity of the rainfall erosivity. The results show that: (1) The Yangtze River basin is an area characterized by uneven spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in China, with the annual average rainfall erosivity range from 131.21 to 16842 MJ mm ha?1 h?1. (2) Although the directions of trends in annual rainfall erosivity at most stations are upward, only 22 stations have significant trends at the 90 % confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the Jinshajiang River basin and Boyang Lake basin. Winter and summer are the seasons showing strong upward trends. For the monthly series, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, June and July. (3) Generally speaking, the results detected by the T test are quite consistent with those detected by the Mann–Kendall test. (4) The rainfall erosivity of Yangtze River basin during winter and summer will maintain a detected significant increasing trend in the near future, which may bring greater risks to soil erosion. (5) The annual and seasonal erosivity of Yangtze River basin all have one significant periodicity of 2–4 years. 相似文献
9.
A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases. 相似文献
10.
ABSTRACTUnder the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed 相似文献
11.
Hamzeh H. Ramadan 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1516-1529
Abstract Streamflow variability in the Upper and Lower Litani basin, Lebanon was modelled as there is a lack of long-term measured runoff data. To simulate runoff and streamflow, daily rainfall was derived using a stochastic rainfall generation model and monthly rainfall data. Two distinct synthetic rainfall models were developed based on a two-part probabilistic distribution approach. The rainfall occurrence was described by a Markov chain process, while the rainfall distribution on wet days was represented by two different distributions (i.e. gamma and mixed exponential distributions). Both distributions yielded similar results. The rainfall data were then processed using water balance and routing models to generate daily and monthly streamflow. Compared with measured data, the model results were generally reasonable (mean errors ranging from 0.1 to 0.8?m3/s at select locations). Finally, the simulated monthly streamflow data were used to investigate discharge trends in the Litani basin during the 20th century using the Mann-Kendall and Sen slope nonparametric trend detection methods. A significant drying trend of the basin was detected, reaching a streamflow reduction of 0.8 and 0.7 m3/s per decade in January for the Upper and Lower basin, respectively. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Sheng Yue Citation Ramadan, H.H., Beighley, R.E., and Ramamurthy, A.S., 2012. Modelling streamflow trends for a watershed with limited data: case of the Litani basin, Lebanon. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1516–1529. 相似文献
12.
Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya 
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下载免费PDF全文 Vincent Omondi Odongo Christiaan van der Tol Pieter R. van Oel Frank M. Meins Robert Becht Japheth Onyando Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293
Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 106 m3 year?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
ABSTRACT In this study, annual and seasonal precipitation trend analysis was performed in the Euphrates-Tigris basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and discrete wavelet transformation. In this context, it was seen that there is a downward trend in winter, spring and annual precipitation, whereas precipitation has an increasing tendency in summer and autumn seasons, in the greater part of the basin. When annual and seasonal data were decomposed into wavelet components, the most significant trends were observed for high-periodic wavelet components, such as D3 (8-year), D4 (16-year) and D5 (32-year), where these components represent the periods of the precipitation data. Then, the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and trend in precipitation was investigated. In this regard, it was found that there could be a significant relationship between the NAO and precipitation trends of the Euphrates-Tigris basin, especially in winter, based on the wavelet ITA. 相似文献
14.
Abstract To explore the spatial and temporal variations of the reference evapotranspiration (ETref) is helpful to understand the response of hydrological processes to climate changes. In this study, ETref was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method (P-M method) using air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours at 89 meteorological stations during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. The spatial distribution and temporal variations of ETref were explored by means of the kriging method, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) method and the linear regression model, and the causes for the variations discussed. The contribution of main meteorological variables to the variations of ETref was explored. From the results we found that: (1) the spatial distributions of ETref display seasonal variation, with similar spatial patterns in spring, summer and autumn; (2) temporal trends for ETref showed large variation in the upper, middle and lower regions of the basin, most of the significant trends (P?=?0.05) were detected in the middle and lower regions, and, in particular, the upward and downward trends were mainly detected in the middle region and lower region of the basin, respectively; and (3) sensitivity analysis identified the most sensitive variable for ETref as relative humidity, followed by air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed at the basin scale. Citation Yang, Zhifeng, Liu, Qiang & Cui, Baoshan (2011) Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2006 in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1015–1026. 相似文献
15.
Dimitrios Myronidis Dimitrios Fotakis Konstantinos Ioannou Konstantina Sgouropoulou 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(15-16):2005-2019
ABSTRACTTen notable meteorological drought indices were compared on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow. A 730-month dataset of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for 88 catchments in Oregon, USA, representing pristine conditions, was used to compute the drought indices. These indices were correlated with the monthly streamflow datasets of the minimum, maximum and mean discharge, and the discharge monthly fluctuation; it was revealed that the 3-month Z-score drought index (Z3) has the best association with the four streamflow variables. The Mann-Kendall trend detection test applied to the latter index time series mainly highlighted a downward trend in the autumn and winter drought magnitude (DM) and an upward trend in the spring and summer DM (p = 0.05). Finally, the Pettitt test indicated an abrupt decline in the annual and autumn DM, which began in 1984 and 1986, respectively. 相似文献
16.
Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
A seasonal water budget analysis was carried out to quantify various components of the hydrological cycle using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Betwa River basin (43?500 km2) in central India. The model results were satisfactory in calibration and validation. The seasonal water budget analysis showed that about 90% of annual rainfall and 97% of annual runoff occurred in the monsoon season. A seasonal linear trend analysis was carried out to detect trends in the water balance components of the basin for the period 1973–2001. In the monsoon season, an increasing trend in rainfall and a decreasing trend in ET were observed; this resulted in an increasing trend in groundwater storage and surface runoff. The winter season followed almost the same pattern. A decreasing trend was observed in summer season rainfall. The study evokes the need for conservation structures in the study area to reduce monsoon runoff and conserve it for basin requirements in water-scarce seasons.
EDITOR Z.W. KundzewiczASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Hattermann 相似文献
18.
Abstract The water shortage in the Yellow River, China, has been aggravated by rapid population growth and global climate changes. To identify the characteristics of streamflow change in the Yellow River, approximately 50 years of natural and observed streamflow data from 23 hydrological stations were examined. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to detect trends and abrupt change points. The results show that both the natural and the observed streamflow in the Yellow River basin present downward trends from 1956 to 2008, and the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is generally faster than that of the natural streamflow. Larger drainage areas have higher declining rates, and the declining trends are intensified downstream within the mainstream. The possibility of abrupt changes in observed streamflow is higher than in natural streamflow, and streamflow series in the mainstream are more likely to change abruptly than those in the tributaries. In the mainstream, all the significant abrupt changes appear in the middle and latter half of the 1980s, but the abrupt changes occur somewhat earlier for observed streamflow than for natural streamflow. The significant abrupt change for the observed streamflow in the tributaries is almost isochronous with the natural streamflow and occurs from the 1970s to 1990s. It is implied that the slight reduction in precipitation is not the only direct reason for the streamflow variation. Other than the effects of climate change, land-use and land-cover changes are the main reasons for the natural streamflow change. Therefore, the increasing net water diversion by humans is responsible for the observed streamflow change. It is estimated that the influence of human activity on the declining streamflow is enhanced over time. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Miao, C.Y., Shi, W., Chen, X.H., and Yang, L., 2012. Spatio-temporal variability of streamflow in the Yellow River: possible causes and implications. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1355–1367. 相似文献
19.
ABSTRACTHigh-resolution data on the spatial pattern of water use are a prerequisite for appropriate and sustainable water management. Based on one well-validated hydrological model, the Distributed Time Variant Gains Model (DTVGM), this paper obtains reliable high-resolution spatial patterns of irrigation, industrial and domestic water use in continental China. During the validation periods, ranges of correlation coefficient (R) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient are 0.67–0.96 and 0.51–0.84, respectively, between the observed and simulated streamflow of six hydrological stations, indicating model applicability to simulate the distribution of water use. The simulated water use quantities have relative errors (RE) less than 5% compared with the observed. In addition, the changes in streamflow discharge were also correctly simulated by our model, such as the Zhangjiafen station in the Hai River basin with a dramatic decrease in streamflow, and the Makou station in the Pearl River basin with no significant changes. These changes are combined results of basin available water resources and water use. The obtained high-resolution spatial pattern of water use could decrease uncertainty of hydrological simulation and guide water management efficiently.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor X. Fang 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):538-549
Abstract Trend analysis was performed on streamflow data for a collection of stations on the Canadian Prairies, in terms of spring and summer runoff volumes, peak flow rates and peak flow occurrences, as well as an annual volume measure, for analysis periods of 1966–2005, 1971–2005, and 1976–2005. The Mann-Kendall statistical test for trend and bootstrap resampling were used to identify the trends and to determine the field significance of the trends. Partial correlation analysis was used to identify relationships between hydrological variables that exhibit a significant trend and meteorological variables that exhibit a significant trend. Noteworthy results include decreasing trends in the spring snowmelt runoff event volume and peak flow, decreasing trends (earlier occurrence) in the spring snowmelt runoff event peak date and decreasing trends in the seasonal (1 March–31 October) runoff volume. These trends can be attributed to a combination of reductions in snowfall and increases in temperatures during the winter months. 相似文献