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1.
J. Ndiritu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1704-1717
Abstract

Raingauge measurements are commonly used to estimate daily areal rainfall for catchment modelling. The variation of rainfall between the gauges is usually inadequately captured and areal rainfall estimates are therefore very uncertain. A method of quantifying these uncertainties and incorporating them into ensembles of areal rainfall is demonstrated and tested. The uncertainties are imposed as perturbations based on the differences in areal rainfall that result when half of the raingauges are alternately omitted. Also included is a method of: (a) estimating the proportion rainfall that falls on areas where no gauges are located that are consequently computed as having zero rain, and (b) replacing them with plausible non-zero rainfalls. The model is tested using daily rainfall from two South African catchments and is found to exhibit the expected behaviour. One of the two parameters of the model is obtained from the rainfall data, while the other has direct physical interpretation.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Ndiritu, J., 2013. Using data-derived perturbations to incorporate uncertainty in generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfall. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1704–1717.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

Recently developed rainfall network design techniques are discussed and compared. Present day hydrological studies require high levels of accuracy from collected data. Also, scientists need to know the degree of accuracy of the information they use. The existing rainfall network in the Kizilirmak basin must be redesigned in order to meet the required level of accuracy preset by rainfall data users. The three following techniques were applied: optimum interpolation procedure which is a flexible method; variance of mean areal rainfall; and the analysis of variance. The existing network of 52 gauges is redesigned so that the network will have an average root mean square error (rmse) of ? 32 mm and the percentage of the area with rmse > 36 mm is limited to 10%. It is found that the proposed criteria are satisfied by a network of 53 gauges of which eight were newly established and seven of the existing ones removed.  相似文献   

3.
ABSTRACT

The network density for the estimation of areal rainfall is determined by the method of optimum estimation. This method considers local variations as well as inter-station characteristics of rainfall over an area while assigning weights to gauges for the estimation of areal rainfall. The network density required for different tolerable errors in the estimation of areal rainfall for the months June-September, for the monsoon season, and for the year, was determined for different sized areas over Vidarbha, a meteorological subdivision of India. The errors in estimations of areal rainfall obtained by the method of optimum estimation are smaller than those obtained by the arithmetic mean.  相似文献   

4.
Synopsis

In areas of accentuated relief, some of the basic assumptions made in the use of standard methods of assessing areal mean rainfall are often untenable. It is shown in this paper, that, not only does topography affect the actual rainfall distribution, but that the areal variability, measured as the correlation between any two points, is also dependent on the relief. Two methods are used to show this. Once method compares the areal variability of a flat area to one of accentuated relief, while the second method relates areal variability to topographic factors using a multiple regression technique.

The conclusions reached are then used for three purposed. The first is to develop a method of ascribing objectively areas or points to a particular raingauge, taking into account the nature of the terrain. The second is to establish a procedure for estimating the rainfall at ungauged points, by taking into account the rainfall at a selected nearby rainguage and the topographic situation of the points, and the third purpose is to provide means of establishing a correction factor to be applied to a raingauge reading in order that the reading may more accurately represent the area ascribed to it.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

A stochastic weather generator has been developed to simulate long daily sequences of areal rainfall and station temperature for the Belgian and French sub-basins of the River Meuse. The weather generator is based on the principle of nearest-neighbour resampling. In this method rainfall and temperature data are sampled simultaneously from multiple historical records with replacement such that the temporal and spatial correlations are well preserved. Particular emphasis is given to the use of a small number of long station records in the resampling algorithm. The distribution of the 10-day winter maxima of basin-average rainfall is quite well reproduced. The generated sequences were used as input for hydrological simulations with the semi-distributed HBV rainfall–runoff model. Though this model is capable of reproducing the flood peaks of December 1993 and January 1995, it tends to underestimate the less extreme daily peak discharges. This underestimation does not show up in the 10-day average discharges. The hydrological simulations with the generated daily rainfall and temperature data reproduce the distribution of the winter maxima of the 10-day average discharges well. Resampling based on long station records leads to lower rainfall and discharge extremes than resampling from the data over a shorter period for which areal rainfall was available.  相似文献   

6.
BIBLIOGRAPHIE     
SUMMARY

The apparent precision of estimated areal rainfall is affected by persistent areal pattern. The areal pattern and random variations can be separated by correlation between records in two periods of a network of gauges.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

A method was developed for allocating an area likely to be shared by a raingauge station. Average areal precipitation was found by weighting the rainfall at the gauging station in terms of the product of distances enclosing it or radiating from it. The method was applied to two real and two hypothetical basins and the results were compared with those obtained by existing techniques.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

A mathematical model is built which enables daily estimates to be made of the areal mean rainfalls for a basin using rainfall observations at a reference station of the same climature* but which may be situated at some distance from the basin. The method consists of:

  1. (1) determining the probabilities of the characteristic types of association between areal mean rainfalls of varying magnitude at the basin and rainfall events of various types at the reference station.

  2. (2) establishing the conditional distributions of areal mean rainfalls at the basin.

  3. (3) estimating the areal mean rainfalls at the basin (a) by the Monte Carlo method and (b) by accepting that the mean basin rainfalls and the reference station rainfall are, in their respective statistical distributions, fractiles of the same order.

Finally, the validity of the simulated series is checked by means of various tests.  相似文献   

9.
Abstract

A digital computer model of basin regime was developed for the Negev Desert Highlands, a region which experiences a mean annual rainfall of about 100 mm. The model was based on 13 years of rainfall and runoff records. Relationships obtained from experiments were used to determine areal distribution of rainfall, infiltration rates of soils, effects of slope angle on runoff, stone cover, rainfall intensity, antecedent rainfall, basin size, soil crust, overland flow and channel losses. These relationships also explain how ancient civilizations were able to collect ample water from small basins in order to establish stable agricultural settlements.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

A procedure for calculating areal rainfall, based on recent innovations in finite element analysis, is presented. The procedure involves the use of interpolation functions, allowing an accurate representation of the shape and relief of the catchment, with numerical integration performed by Gaussian quadrature. Each raingauge is allotted two weights, one associated with the rainfall reduced to a datum, and the other with the rainfall-altitude relationship. The latter weight effectively removes any systematic errors due to altitudinal bias of the network.

The rainfall-altitude relationship, derived for individual storms and for synoptic situations for a small area, is used to show that errors due to the bias of the network can be considerable.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

To investigate the consequences of climate change on the water budget in small catchments, it is necessary to know the change of local precipitation and temperature. General Circulation Models (GCM) cannot provide regional climate parameters yet, because of their coarse resolution and imprecise modelling of precipitation. Therefore downscaling of precipitation and temperature has to be carried out from the GCM grids to a small scale of a few square kilometres. Daily rainfall and temperature are modelled as processes conditioned on atmospheric circulation. Rainfall is linked to the circulation patterns (CPs) using conditional probabilities and conditional rainfall amount distribution. Both temperature and precipitation are downscaled to several locations simultaneously taking into account the CP dependent spatial correlation. Temperature is modelled using a simple autoregressive approach, conditioned on atmospheric circulation and local areal precipitation. The model uses the classification scheme of the German Weather Service and a fuzzy rule-based classification. It was applied in the Aller catchment for validation using observed rainfall and temperature, and observed classified geopotential pressure heights. GCM scenarios of the ECHAM model were used to make climate change predictions (using classified GCM geopotential heights); simulated values agree fairly well with historical data. Results for different GCM scenarios are shown.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

A forecasting model is developed using a hybrid approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple regression analysis (MRA) to predict the total typhoon rainfall and groundwater-level change in the Zhuoshui River basin. We used information from the raingauge stations in eastern Taiwan and open source typhoon data to build the ANN model for forecasting the total rainfall and the groundwater level during a typhoon event; then we revised the predictive values using MRA. As a result, the average accuracy improved up to 80% when the hybrid model of ANN and MRA was applied, even where insufficient data were available for model training. The outcome of this research can be applied to forecasts of total rainfall and groundwater-level change before a typhoon event reaches the Zhuoshui River basin once the typhoon has made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan.  相似文献   

13.
ABSTRACT

In southeastern Arizona, almost all summer rainfall results from widely-scattered high-intensity afternoon or evening thunderstorms of limited areal extent. For eleven years of record on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Tombstone, Arizona, about 70 percent of the annual rainfall of 11 1/2 inches and over 95 percent of the annual runoff occurred in July, August, and early September. In contrast, about 5 percent of the rainfall occurred in the previous 3 months, and about 25 percent in the remaining 6 1/2 months.

Therefore, summer rainfall, although highly variable, represented the most dependable source of water to the Walnut Gulch watershed. On the average, significant rainfall was recorded on some part of the watershed on 40 percent of the days in the critical July-August period. The maximum frequency was 3 out of every 4 days in 1955, and the minimum 3 out of every 10 days in 1960.

The wettest year was 1955, with a continuous rainy period of 47 days; whereas, the driest was 1960, with the longest rainy period lasting only 5 days. The longest summer drought during the period of record occurred in 1962, when no rain fell for 17 days in August, following a 14-day rainy period in late July.

As yet, there are not enough data to determine reliable expectancies for summer rainy or drought periods.  相似文献   

14.
ABSTRACT

Due to more frequent extreme rainfall incidents in recent years, many large cities are considering the construction of new drainage systems to cope with rainfall in the order of 100-year events. In such cases, T-year point rainfall events should be supplemented with areal reduction factors (ARF) to avoid overdesign. To facilitate an initial design, a procedure based on using Chicago Design Storms (CDS) in combination with intensity–duration–area (IDA) curves was developed to produce CDS-ARF input rainfall. By means of the time of concentration, a specific instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) was obtained for each subcatchment. Combination of CDS-ARF rains and the subcatchment IUHs using convolution integrals was used to produce inflow hydrographs to the drainage system. A sequential design procedure that successively includes subcatchments for the entire drainage system in the downstream direction is implemented and exemplified ensuring a consistent initial design.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Spatial rainfall patterns and seasonal variability were assessed for a mountainous river basin with monsoon climate. Factors were identified that could explain this variability, and a GIS-supported method to determine the areal distribution of precipitation was developed. To find acceptable regression equations, a division had to be made between rainfall stations dominated by the southwest-monsoons and the northeast-monsoons, respectively. Distance to the southwestern border was the main explaining factor for precipitation at southwest-monsoon dominated stations. For northeast-monsoon dominated stations, altitude and slope were the most important factors. The basin was divided into pixels with characteristics typical for northeast- or southwest-monsoon dominated rainfall stations to allow calculation of spatial rainfall. The difference when comparing regression-based estimates with Thiessen-based estimates was small when considering the annual estimates for the whole basin. However, when analysing seasonal rainfall or sub-catchments, the differences between Thiessen-based and regression-based estimates were significant.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Mathematical models developed for quantification of sediment transport in hydrological watersheds require data collected through field or laboratory experiments, but these are still very rare in the literature. This study aims to collect such data at the laboratory scale. To this end, a rainfall simulator equipped with nozzles to spray rainfall was constructed, together with an erosion flume that can be given longitudinal and lateral slopes. Eighty experiments were performed, considering microtopographical features by pre-forming a rill on the soil surface before the start of each experiment. Medium and fine sands were used as soil, and four rainfall intensities (45, 65, 85 and 105 mm h-1) were applied in the experiments. Rainfall characteristics such as uniformity, granulometry, drop velocity and kinetic energy were evaluated; flow and sediment discharge data were collected and analysed. The analysis shows that the sediment transport rate is directly proportional to rainfall intensity and slope. In contrast, the volumetric sediment concentration stays constant and does not change with rainfall intensity unless the slope changes. These conclusions are restricted to the conditions of experiments performed under rainfall intensities between and 105 mm h-1 for medium and fine sands in a 136-cm-wide, 650-cm-long and 17-cm-deep erosion flume with longitudinal and lateral slopes varying between 5 and 20%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor G. Mahé

Citation Aksoy, H., Unal, N.E., Cokgor, S., Gedikli, A., Yoon, J., Koca, K., Inci, S.B., Eris, E., and Pak, G., 2013. Laboratory experiments of sediment transport from bare soil with a rill. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1505–1518.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

EPSAT-NIGER (Estimation of Precipitation by SATellite—NIGER experiment) has been designed to improve the understanding of the precipitation systems of Sudano-Sahelian Africa and to develop operational rainfall estimation algorithms for this region. It is based on the combined use of a very dense raingauge network (93 gauges over a study area of 16 000 km2) and a C-band weather radar system. The experiment is scheduled to last three years, 1990–1992. The network pattern, a regular grid with nodes spaced at 12.5 km and a 16 gauge target area where the distance between stations is decreased to 1 km, has allowed for some preliminary studies on the rainfall distribution at various space and time scales. Whereas the long term average rainfall gradient is uniform, rainfall increasing north to south, a single rainy season can be markedly different. The local variability may be extremely large. That variability is enhanced at smaller sampling time steps and the computation of reference areal rainfall for satellite imagery validation is extremely sensitive to the design of the ground-based validation system. The joint processing of gauge and radar data has led to the identification of a few typical features of the drop size distribution of the African squall lines, which could lead to deriving specific algorithms for radar calibration in this region. The data provided by EPSAT-NIGER will be used in various international projects for the assessment of water input from the atmosphere to the continent over the Sahel.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

Rainfall is the most important water resource in central and western Sudan, a region affected by the recent drought in Africa. A general methodology for studying the annual rainfall process is presented and applied to data from central and western Sudan. It is assumed that certain time series models adequately describe the annual rainfall process in the region. Based on this assumption, the drought frequencies are calculated in the subregions with stationary series. The theory of runs is applied in calculating drought frequencies using a data generation method.  相似文献   

19.
In this study an equation for estimating the error involved in the areal average rain rate considering the inter-station correlation was derived and applied for two cases: the first compared two storm events with different inter-station correlations, and the second evaluated the seasonal variation of estimation error of monthly rainfall. Similar cases, but without considering the rainfall seasonality, were also investigated for the comparison. This study was applied to the Geum River Basin with 28 rain gauge measurements, each having more than 30 years of rainfall data. A summary of the application results follows: (1) When considering the inter-station correlation, the estimation error involved in the areal average rain rate became significantly decreased proportional to the inter-station correlation. (2) The estimation error of monthly areal average rainfall showed strong seasonality with high ones during the wet season and lower ones during the dry season. (3) The estimation error was well proportional to the areal average rain rate as well as to its standard deviation. The ratio of estimation error to the areal average rain rate itself was estimated to be about 0.1 for the case of assuming no inter-station correlations, but decreased to 0.06 for the case of considering the inter-station correlations between measurements. (4) The relation between the standard deviation of areal average rain rate and the estimation error became much stronger than that between the areal average rain rate itself and the estimation error. The ratio of estimation error to the standard deviations of rain rate amount was estimated to be about 0.2 for the case of assuming no inter-station correlations, but decreased to 0.1 for the case of considering the inter-station correlations. This relation was found to be valid for any case of accumulation time such as in daily, monthly, or annual rainfall data.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract

The uncertainty associated with a rainfall–runoff and non-point source loading (NPS) model can be attributed to both the parameterization and model structure. An interesting implication of the areal nature of NPS models is the direct relationship between model structure (i.e. sub-watershed size) and sample size for the parameterization of spatial data. The approach of this research is to find structural limitations in scale for the use of the conceptual NPS model, then examine the scales at which suitable stochastic depictions of key parameter sets can be generated. The overlapping regions are optimal (and possibly the only suitable regions) for conducting meaningful stochastic analysis with a given NPS model. Previous work has sought to find optimal scales for deterministic analysis (where, in fact, calibration can be adjusted to compensate for sub-optimal scale selection); however, analysis of stochastic suitability and uncertainty associated with both the conceptual model and the parameter set, as presented here, is novel; as is the strategy of delineating a watershed based on the uncertainty distribution. The results of this paper demonstrate a narrow range of acceptable model structure for stochastic analysis in the chosen NPS model. In the case examined, the uncertainties associated with parameterization and parameter sensitivity are shown to be outweighed in significance by those resulting from structural and conceptual decisions.

Citation Parker, G. T. Rennie, C. D. & Droste, R. L. (2011) Model structure and uncertainty for stochastic non-point source modelling applications. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 870–882.  相似文献   

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