Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Weiguang Wang  Quanxi Shao  Tao Yang  Shizhang Peng  Wanqiu Xing  Fengchao Sun  Yufeng Luo 《水文研究》2013,27(8):1158-1174

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The relative contributions of alpine and subalpine ecosystems to the water balance of a mountainous,headwater catchment          下载免费PDF全文

John F. Knowles  Rory Cowie  Morgan Zeliff  Holly R. Barnard  Sean P. Burns  Peter D. Blanken  Jennifer F. Morse  Mark W. Williams 《水文研究》2015,29(22):4794-4808

Climate change is affecting the hydrology of high‐elevation mountain ecosystems, with implications for ecosystem functioning and water availability to downstream populations. We directly and continuously measured precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) from both subalpine forest and alpine tundra portions of a single catchment, as well as discharge fluxes at the catchment outlet, to quantify the water balance of a mountainous, headwater catchment in Colorado, USA. Between 2008 and 2012, the water balance closure averaged 90% annually, and the catchment ET was the largest water output at 66% of precipitation. Alpine ET was greatest during the winter, in part because of sublimation from blowing snow, which contributed from 27% to 48% of the alpine, and 6% to 9% of the catchment water balance, respectively. The subalpine ET peaked in summer. Alpine areas generated the majority of the catchment discharge, despite covering only 31% of the catchment area. Although the average annual alpine runoff efficiency (discharge/precipitation; 40%) was greater than the subalpine runoff efficiency (19%), the subalpine runoff efficiency was more sensitive to changes in precipitation. Inter‐annual analysis of the evaporative and dryness indices revealed persistent moisture limitations at the catchment scale, although the alpine alternated between energy‐limited and water‐limited states in wet and dry years. Each ecosystem generally over‐generated discharge relative to that expected from a Budyko‐type model. The alpine and catchment water yields were relatively unaffected by annual meteorological variability, but this interpretation was dependent on the method used to quantify potential ET. Our results indicate that correctly accounting for dissimilar hydrological cycling above and below alpine treeline is critical to quantify the water balance of high‐elevation mountain catchments over periods of meteorological variability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Stephen K. Hamilton  M. Z. Hussain  Christopher Lowrie  B. Basso  G. P. Robertson 《水文研究》2018,32(5):655-663

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.  相似文献   

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland     

Piotr Ilnicki  Ryszard Farat  Krzysztof Górecki  Piotr Lewandowski 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1117-1134

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.