共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 379 毫秒
1.
Simulations of subtropical marine low clouds and their radiative properties by nine coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models
participating in the fourth assesment report (AR4) of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) are analyzed. Satellite
observations of cloudiness and radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) are utilized for comparison. The analysis
is confined to the marine subtropics in an attempt to isolate low cloudiness from tropical convective systems. All analyzed
models have a negative bias in the low cloud fraction (model mean bias of −15%). On the other hand, the models show an excess
of cloud radiative cooling in the region (model mean excess of 13 W m−2). The latter bias is shown to mainly originate from too much shortwave reflection by the models clouds rather than biases
in the clear-sky fluxes. These results confirm earlier studies, thus no major progress in simulating the marine subtropical
clouds is noted. As a consequence of the combination of these two biases, this study suggests that all investigated models
are likely to overestimate the radiative response to changes in low level subtropical cloudiness. 相似文献
2.
Freezing of rainwater on a surface is often caused by nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. Forecasting cloudiness, and especially the risk of clearing, on a scale of 1 to 3 h is of interest in the domains of road weather, agriculture, or water management.Cloud amount and the difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed. We conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness.We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for a case from winter 2001/02 in northern Switzerland. An ultra-dense combination of two networks with 70 stations in total is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other parameters. With the aid of our equations, these measurements where converted into cloud maps, including also precipitation seen by radar. We identified a frontal precipitation area, postfrontal clearing, freezing, and the first clouds of a following frontal passage.All these findings will contribute to a better observation and predictability of surface state and other risks connected with radiative cooling. 相似文献
3.
B. C. Weare 《Climate Dynamics》2001,17(2-3):143-150
4.
Erik Velasco Shelley Pressley Rasa Grivicke Eugene Allwine Luisa T. Molina Brian Lamb 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,103(3-4):501-517
The parameterization of the energy balance from a residential and commercial neighborhood of Mexico City was investigated using direct measurements of radiative and heat fluxes carried out during the MILAGRO/MCMA-2006 field campaign as a reference. The measured fluxes were used to evaluate different models of the energy balance based on parameterizations that require standard meteorological observations: ambient temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and cloudiness. It was found that these models reproduce with reasonable accuracy the diurnal features of the radiative and heat fluxes. The largest differences between modeled and observed fluxes correspond to the incoming longwave radiation, mainly due to errors in the cloudiness data. This paper contributes to the understanding of the energy partitioning in (sub)tropical urban environments, particularly in the developing world, where energy balance models have not been evaluated. 相似文献
5.
A control integration with the normal solar constant and one with it increased by 2.5% in the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR） coupled atmosphere-ocean Climate System Model were conducted to see how well the actual realized global warming could be predicted just by analysis of the control results. This is a test, within a model context, of proposals that have been advanced to use knowledge of the present day climate to make ＂empirical＂ estimates of global climate sensitivity. The scaling of the top-of-the-atmosphere infrared flux and the planetary albedo as functions of surface temperature was inferred by examining four different temporal and geographical variations of the control simulations. Each of these inferences greatly overestimates the climate sensitivity of the model, largely because of the behavior of the cloud albedo. In each inference the control results suggest that cloudiness and albedo decrease with increasing surface temperature. However, the experiment with the increased solar constant actually has higher albedo and more cloudiness at most latitudes. The increased albedo is a strong negative feedback, and this helps account for the rather weak sensitivity of the climate in the NCAR model. To the extent that these model results apply to the real world, they suggest empirical evaluation of the scaling of global-mean radiative properties with surface temperature in the present day climate provides little useful guidance for estimates of the actual climate sensitivity to global changes. 相似文献
6.
利用阿拉善高原近40a(1971—2010年)观测年及四季平均总云量,分析其时空变化特征及Hurst指数,并对总云量与降水量、平均气温、日照时数及相对湿度等因子之间的关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)阿拉善高原近40a平均总云量在38.3%~45.8%之间;北部地区年平均总云量减少趋势显著,南部地区呈不明显的减少趋势。(2)年平均总云量与相对湿度呈显著正相关,与降水量、日照时数、平均气温相关不显著。春季、秋季和冬季总云量与降水、相对湿度呈显著正相关,与日照时数显著负相关,与平均气温相关性不显著。夏季总云量和降水量相关不显著,与相对湿度呈显著的正相关,与日照时数和平均气温呈显著的负相关。(3)Hurst指数分析显示,阿拉善高原北部地区年平均总云量、南部地区春季总云量、东北地区夏季总云量未来将显著减少,其余地区年及四季总云量的减少趋势不显著。 相似文献
7.
Summary The distribution of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere over the Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite observations. Two key regions are considered: The eastern Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal which experience maximum upper-level cloudiness in winter and summer respectively. It is found that longwave CRF in the Bay of Bengal during summer is similar to that over the eastern Indian Ocean during winter. On the other hand shortwave CRF magnitude is larger in the Bay of Bengal. These differences explain the net CRF difference between the two regions. The stronger shortwave forcing seems to be related to the Upper-Level Cloudiness being larger over the Bay than over the eastern Indian Ocean. The reasons for the longwave CRF similarities are analysed in more details. Using the results from a convective system classification method, it is first shown that the longwave radiative properties of the individual systems do not vary much from one region to another. The distribution of the different kind of systems, a proxy for the vertical cloudiness structure, does not either indicate strong difference between the regions. It is then proposed that the substantial precipitable water vapour amount observed over the Bay of Bengal damps the effects of the upper-level cloudiness on radiation compared to the relatively dryer eastern Indian Ocean area; yielding to similar LW CRF in both region despite more Upper-Level Cloudiness over the Bay of Bengal. These observations are supported by idealised radiative transfer computations. The distribution of cloudiness and radiative forcing is then analysed over the whole tropical Indian Ocean for each season. July is characterized by a low longwave CRF regime (relative to January) over the most convectively active part of the Ocean. The non linear damping effect of water vapor on longwave CRF is also shown to contribute to this regime. Overall, this study reaffirms the need for simultaneous documentation of the cloud systems properties together with their moist environment in order to understand the overall net radiative signature of tropical convection at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). 相似文献
8.
Estimation of radiation during fair weather cloudy situations of the MESOGERS-84 experiment has been examined using micrometeorological observations and satellite data. Diurnal variation of cloudiness is empirically determined using satellite information as a function of global radiation, and relationships between net incoming radiation and global radiation are analyzed. Particularly, it has been found that a very simple relationship between global radiation, cloudiness and net radiative heat flux proposed by Nielsenet al. (1981) can be used with satellite data and applied to the Mesogers region in Southwest France. The different relationships between cloudiness and radiation are utilized to modify and to validate Taconet'set al. model (1986) to get fluxes related to a cloudy situation without advection. 相似文献
9.
Summary Past investigations of the summertime heat budget over the Tibetan Plateau have not included detailed estimates of radiative cooling (Q
R
) nor have they carefully considered the effects of cloudiness on this term. The various attempts to eyaluate different combinations of heat and moisture budget torms and to understand the sources of energy to the summer armospheric heat source over the plateau are not in agreement, partly because of remaining discrepancies in the radiative and turbulent flux components, and partly because until recently, the conventional data sets needed for independently estimating the total heating and moistening terms have been incomplete. The uncertainties in the radiative term have also led to difficulties in assessing the uncertainties in the other budget terms, since no study to date has assembled a complete enough data set to allow a unified calculation of all budget quantities or to obtain budget closure. Recently published results of Yanai and his colleagues involving apparent heat source calculations for the plateau region based on a much improved FGGE data set, have motivated the examination of whether more detailed radiative calculations can help resolve past discrepancies in the budget terms on a monthly time scale. This study uses a continuous time series of 22-km resolution INSAT geosynchronous satellite measurements and ECMWF profile analyses in conjunction with medium spectral resolution radiative transfer models to estimate the slicrtwave and longwave components of the radiative cooling term and the role of cloudiness on these components for the 1988 summer period. The calculations reveal both meridional and zonal structure in radiative divergence across the plateau associated with the substantial gradients of cloudiness and aridity that dominate the summertime plateau climatology. The calculations also indicate that the magnitudes of both cloud-induced shortwave heating and longwave cooling over the plateau are much greater than over low-elevation regions. Moreover, since cloud-induced longwave cooling exceeds cloud-induced shortwave heating, the bulk effect of clouds is to radiatively cool the plateau atmosphere. The high resolution calculations are reduced to monthly averaged budget quantities for analyzing whether existing discrepancies in the plateau heat budget can be resolved. Although there is no means to rigorously verify the accuracies and representativeness of the individual budget terms, the new radiative estimates combined with the most reliable current estimates of total heating and turbulent fluxes, produce near closure (within 4%) of the plateau heat budget for the June to August period.With 10 Figures 相似文献
10.
青藏高原云对地气系统长波射出辐射(OLR)强迫的气候研究 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
利用地球辐射平衡试验（ＥＲＢＥ）和国际卫星云气修计划（ＩＳＣＣＰ）提供的地气系统长波射出辐射（ＯＬＲ）和云量资料,计算并讨论了青藏高原地气系统各季和年平均总云量对ＯＬＲ的强迫及其所产生的温室效应,揭示了高、低示了高、低云对ＯＬＲ强迫的特点。结果表明：高原的ＯＬＲ云强迫与总云量、高云量都有较好的相关关系,且季节变化明显;ＯＬＲ云强迫和云温室效应的地理分布与高原总云量的分布较为一致;云强迫的年变化一同 相似文献
11.
利用广西南宁站1951~2005年的云量、气温和降水资料,分析了云量变化特征及其与气温、降水的关系,结果表明:总云量和低云量长期变化分别呈减少和增加的趋势,且趋势显著。总云量和低云量季节变化都是在初春或冬春交接季节达到最高值,秋季降到最低值,平均云量白天多于晚上。总云量与平均气温、最高气温有很显著的反相关,与最低气温相关不显著;低云量与最高气温有很显著的反相关,与最低气温有显著的正相关,与平均气温相关不显著。总云量与降水有显著的反相关关系,而低云量与降水相关不显著。 相似文献
12.
Summary Global maps of the monthly mean net upward longwave radiation flux at the ocean surface have been obtained for April, July, October 1985 and January 1986. These maps were produced by blending information obtained from a combination of general circulation model cloud radiative forcing fields, the top-of-the-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing from ERBE and TOVS profiles and sea surface temperature on ISCCP C1 tapes. The fields are compatible with known meteorological regimes of atmospheric water vapor content and cloudiness. There is a vast area of high net upward longwave radiation flux (> 80 W m–2) in the eastern Pacific Ocean throughout most of the year. Areas of low net upward longwave radiation flux (< 40 Wm–2) are the tropical convective regions and extra tropical regions that tend to have persistent low cloud cover. The technique used in this study relies on GCM simulations and so is subject to some of the uncertainties associated with the model. However, all input information regarding temperature, moisture and cloud cover is from satellite data having near global coverage. This feature of the procedure alone warrants its consideration for further use in compiling global maps of the net longwave radiation at the surface over the oceans.With 9 Figures 相似文献
13.
R. S. W. VAN DE WAL M. WILD J. DE WOLDE 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2001,53(1):94-102
This paper focuses on the rôle of accumulation and cloudiness changes in the response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming. Changes in accumulation or cloudiness were often neglected, or coupled to temperature changes. We used model output on temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from a GCM (ECHAM4 T106). The GCM output was used to drive the Greenland model that exists of a vertically averaged ice flow model, coupled to a 1D surface energy balance model that calculates the ablation. Variables are temperature, accumulation and cloudiness. Sensitivity experiments with this model show that changes in accumulation are very important for the ice sheet mass balance, whereas cloudiness is of secondary importance. If the Greenland model is forced by the GCM output, the Greenland model is found to contribute 70% less to sea level rise after 70 years than is indicated by the results presented in the IPCC report. This large discrepancy is mainly due to the fact that the enhanced ablation is strongly compensated by increased accumulation. Comparing the result obtained here with changes in mass balance derived directly from the same general circulation model, indicates a 20% larger contribution to sea level. This increase is due to changes in ice flow, and a different method for the ablation calculation. 相似文献
14.
The simulation of Arctic clouds and their influence on the winter surface temperature in present-day climate in the CMIP3 multi-model dataset 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
We investigate the influence of clouds on the surface energy budget and surface temperature in the sea-ice covered parts of the ocean north of the Arctic circle in present-day climate in nine global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3, CMIP3. Monthly mean simulated surface skin temperature, radiative fluxes and cloud parameters are evaluated using retrievals from the extended AVHHR Polar Pathfinder (APP-x) product. We analyzed the annual cycle but the main focus is on the winter, in which large parts of the region experience polar night. We find a smaller across-model spread as well as better agreement with observations during summer than during winter in the simulated climatological annual cycles of total cloudiness and surface skin temperature. The across-model spread in liquid and ice water paths is substantial during the whole year. These results qualitatively agree with earlier studies on the present-day Arctic climate in GCMs. The climatological ensemble model mean annual cycle of surface cloud forcing shows good agreement with observations in summer. However, during winter the insulating effect of clouds tends to be underestimated in models. During winter, most of the models as well as the observations show higher monthly mean total cloud fractions, associated with larger positive surface cloud forcing. Most models also show good correlation between the surface cloud forcing and the vertically integrated ice and liquid cloud condensate. The wintertime ensemble model mean total cloud fraction (69%) shows excellent agreement with observations. The across-model spread in the winter mean cloudiness is substantial (36?C94%) however and several models significantly underestimate the cloud liquid water content. If the two models not showing any relationship between cloudiness and surface cloud forcing are disregarded, a tentative across-model relation exists, in such a way that models that simulate large winter mean cloudiness also show larger surface cloud forcing. Even though the across-model spread in wintertime surface cloud forcing is large, no clear relation to the surface temperature is found. This indicates that other processes, not explicitly cloud related, are important for the simulated across-model spread in surface temperature. 相似文献
15.
过去60年中国秦岭地区云量变化及原因分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用近50年秦岭地区高山站及邻近2个地面站的气象资料、季风指数及海温资料,初步分析了云量的变化特征和原因,结果表明:(1)秦岭地区云量变化呈减少趋势,其中华山站(高山)、华县和西安站(平原)夜间的低云量分别为-1.74%·(10a)-1,-1.56%·(10a)-1和-4.23%·(10a)-1,白天的分别为-0.73%·(10a)-1,-1.94%·(10a)-1和-4.62%·(10a)-1;(2)夜间高山站总云量比平原站减少的多(-1%·(10a)-1),白天减少的少(<-0.6%·(10a)-1);(3)高山站和平原站四季的低云量都是减少的,除了平原站夏季总云量是增加的外,其他季节均减少。云量变化的主要原因是:(1)局地气溶胶冷却作用,导致地面接收太阳辐射减少,使局地对流减弱,造成低云量减少;(2)由于西太平洋副热带高压面积增大,使秦岭地区总云量减少。 相似文献
16.
Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Robert K. Kaufmann Heikki Kauppi Michael L. Mann James H. Stock 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):729-743
By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record. 相似文献
17.
Joseph Sedlar Michael Tjernström Thorsten Mauritsen Matthew D. Shupe Ian M. Brooks P. Ola G. Persson Cathryn E. Birch Caroline Leck Anders Sirevaag Marcel Nicolaus 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(7-8):1643-1660
Snow surface and sea-ice energy budgets were measured near 87.5°N during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), from August to early September 2008. Surface temperature indicated four distinct temperature regimes, characterized by varying cloud, thermodynamic and solar properties. An initial warm, melt-season regime was interrupted by a 3-day cold regime where temperatures dropped from near zero to ?7°C. Subsequently mean energy budget residuals remained small and near zero for 1 week until once again temperatures dropped rapidly and the energy budget residuals became negative. Energy budget transitions were dominated by the net radiative fluxes, largely controlled by the cloudiness. Variable heat, moisture and cloud distributions were associated with changing air-masses. Surface cloud radiative forcing, the net radiative effect of clouds on the surface relative to clear skies, is estimated. Shortwave cloud forcing ranged between ?50 W m?2 and zero and varied significantly with surface albedo, solar zenith angle and cloud liquid water. Longwave cloud forcing was larger and generally ranged between 65 and 85 W m?2, except when the cloud fraction was tenuous or contained little liquid water; thus the net effect of the clouds was to warm the surface. Both cold periods occurred under tenuous, or altogether absent, low-level clouds containing little liquid water, effectively reducing the cloud greenhouse effect. Freeze-up progression was enhanced by a combination of increasing solar zenith angles and surface albedo, while inhibited by a large, positive surface cloud forcing until a new air-mass with considerably less cloudiness advected over the experiment area. 相似文献
18.
A mesoscale 3D numerical model is described, with which detailed calculations have been made of turbulence and wind characteristics in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), as well as cloud particle size distribution, longwave and solar radiation fluxes and flux divergences, and atmosphere-ocean heat exchange. Based on numerical experiments simulating winter conditions of the Newfoundland energy-active zone of the ocean (EAZO), atmosphere-ocean energy exchange is investigated. It is shown that the basic mechanisms for the EAZO formation involve the following processes: (i) at the hydrological front between cold and warm ocean currents, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat grow significantly; (ii) at this front, in a particular synoptic situation, overcast low-level cloudiness forms, screening solar radiation so that in winter, the radiation budget at the front is reduced, and the radiative flux into the ocean is less than the energy release to the atmosphere; (iii) frequent occurrence of such synoptic situations with cloudiness decreases the oceanic enthalpy and creates negative SST anomalies. The transport of these anomalies by currents to the western coasts of the continents causes anomalies of weather and climate. 相似文献
19.
We evaluate the claim by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009) that “surface temperature can be better described as a trend stationary process with a one-time permanent shock” than efforts by Kaufmann et al. (Clim Change 77:249–278, 2006) to model surface temperature as a time series that contains a stochastic trend that is imparted by the time series for radiative forcing. We test this claim by comparing the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock to the in-sample forecast generated by a cointegration/error correction model that is assumed to be stable over the 1870–2000 sample period. Results indicate that the in-sample forecast generated by the cointegration/error correction model is more accurate than the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations of the cointegration/error correction model generate time series for temperature that are consistent with the trend-stationary-with-a-break result generated by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009), while the time series for radiative forcing cannot be modeled as trend stationary with a one-time shock. Based on these results, we argue that modeling surface temperature as a time series that shares a stochastic trend with radiative forcing offers the possibility of greater insights regarding the potential causes of climate change and efforts to slow its progression. 相似文献
20.
Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) signals have been detected using highly sampled observations from the U.S. DOE ARM Climate Research Facility located at the Tropical Western Pacific Manus site. Using downwelling shortwave radiative fluxes and derived shortwave fractional sky cover, and the statistical tools of wavelet, cross wavelet, and Fourier spectrum power, we report finding major convective signals and their phase change from surface observations spanning from 1996 to 2006. Our findings are confirmed with the satellite-gauge combined values of precipitation from the NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project and the NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation for the same location. We find that the Manus MJO signal is weakest during the strongest 1997?C1998 El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) year. A significant 3?C5-month lead in boreal winter is identified further between Manus MJO and NOAA NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (former leads latter). A striking inverse relationship is found also between the instantaneous synoptic and intraseasonal phenomena over Manus. To further study the interaction between intraseasonal and diurnal scale variability, we composite the diurnal cycle of cloudiness for 21-MJO events that have passed over Manus. Our diurnal composite analysis of shortwave and longwave fractional sky covers indicates that during the MJO peak (strong convection), the diurnal amplitude of cloudiness is reduced substantially, while the diurnal mean cloudiness reaches the highest value and there are no significant phase changes. We argue that the increasing diurnal mean and decreasing diurnal amplitude are caused by the systematic convective cloud formation that is associated with the wet phase of the MJO, while the diurnal phase is still regulated by the well-defined solar forcing. This confirms our previous finding of the anti-phase relationship between the synoptic and intraseasonal phenomena. The detection of the MJO over the Manus site provides further opportunities in using other ground-based remote sensing instruments to investigate the vertical distributions of clouds and radiative heatings of the MJO that currently is impossible from satellite observations. 相似文献