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1.
On the basis of reanalysis data and hydrodynamic modeling the spatial-temporal features of Wallace-Gutzler circulation indices, calculated at daily intervals, are studied. The circulation index extremes are interpreted as “weather regimes” with the alteration closely related to the low frequency variability of the atmospere. The outliers and extreme values are studied using nonparametric statistics and exploratory techniques. On the basis of the experiments performed assessments of the potential predictability of the outlier and extreme value characteristics for the summer and winter seasons are given.  相似文献   

2.
Summary  Climatic fluctuations across Africa are analysed from two century+ records of rainfall at Durban, South Africa and the Nile River flow in southern Egypt. A wavelet transform analysis is applied to the rainfall record to determine the strength of intra-seasonal to decadal rhythms. The annual cycle constitutes 33% of variability, whilst 2.3–4 year cycles account for 10% of the variance. A contingency analysis of flood events reveals a bimodal character with peaks in November and March. The Durban rainfall time series is compared with remote environmental variables. Close relationships are found with the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and the southern oscillation index. Comparisons are made between the southern summer rainfall at Durban (November–March) and northern summer Nile River flow (July–October). Cross-wavelet analysis of the two records indicates a matching of frequency in quasi-biennial and El Ni?o frequency bands. This suggests that the uptake of ‘teleconnections’ governing African climate occurs in a widespread manner. Received February 25, 2000  相似文献   

3.
Rainfall characteristics during the annual rainy season are explored for the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe, for both historic period (1886–1906) and more recent times (1950–2015), based on available daily and monthly precipitation series. Annual and seasonal rainfall trends are determined using the modified Mann-Kendall test, magnitude of trends test and Sen’s slope estimator. Rainfall variability is quantified using the coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI) and standard precipitation index (SPI). Results suggest that contemporary mean annual rainfall may not have changed from that measured during the historic period of 1886–1906. However, the number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) has decreased by 34%, thus suggesting much more concentrated and increased rainfall intensity. A notable shift in both the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season is recorded, particularly during the twenty-first century, which has resulted in a significantly reduced (p < 0.05) length of the rainy season. The combination of a reduced number of rainy days (≥ 1 mm) and a shortened rainy season suggests that long intra-season dry spells have become more common through time and have considerable negative consequences for agriculture and wetland ecosystem in the region. In addition, high spatio-temporal rainfall variability and seasonal PCI values indicate strong seasonality in the rainy season. Based on the SPI results, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences rainfall variability. The results further suggest high uncertainty in rain season characteristics, which requires effective planning for water needs.  相似文献   

4.
In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon (WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991–2001, the reproducibility and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall one: the correlation between observations (from CMAP) and the multi-model ensemble mean is 0.17 and 0.55, respectively. For the Sahelian mode, the correlation is consistent with a low PP of about ~6%. The PP of the Guinean mode is higher, ~44% suggesting a stronger forcing of the sea surface temperature on rainfall variability over this region. Parameters relative to the atmospheric dynamics are on average much more skillful and reproducible than rainfall. Among them, the first mode of variability of the zonal wind at 200 hPa that depicts the Tropical Easterly Jet, is correlated at 0.79 with its “observed” counterpart (from the NCEP/DOE2 reanalyses) and has a PP of 39%. Moreover, models reproduce the correlations between all the atmospheric dynamics parameters and the Sahelian rainfall in a satisfactory way. In that context, a statistical adaptation of the atmospheric dynamic forecasts, using a linear regression model with the leading principal components of the atmospheric dynamical parameters studied, leads to moderate receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and correlation skill scores for the Sahelian rainfall. These scores are however much higher than those obtained using the modelled rainfall.  相似文献   

5.
Summary  The precipitation forecasts of four operational numerical weather prediction models over the Alpine region are evaluated and intercompared for two periods of interest to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The new analysis of Alpine rainfall of Frei and Scha?r (1998) is used to validate the models. It is found that the models have a tendency to overestimate the total precipitation and the frequency of intense rain events over high orography. The skill scores show good consistency between models, except for the ability to forecast light rain or heavy rain events. The partition between convective and stratiform rainfall is rather variable between the models. Received March 15, 1999/Revised July 12, 1999  相似文献   

6.
Summary Estimates of spring precipitation for the inner Alpine dry valley of the upper Inn (Tyrol, Austria) are made back to A.D. 1724 using a ring width chronology of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as predictor. A highly significant agreement in year-to-year ring width changes exists between several chronologies along the dry valley. The dendroclimatic model used for climate reconstruction is a simple linear transfer function that estimates April–June precipitation from current tree-ring width. All verification statistics commonly used in dendroclimatological research are significant ( p < 0.01) and indicate that the reconstructed time series provides valuable information on past spring precipitation variability. Reconstructed spring rainfall deficiencies and surpluses ≥ 20% compared to the long-term mean in 1819, 1832, 1834, 1865, 1885, and in 1780, 1782, 1821, 1853, 1910, respectively, are also documented by local historical records. Furthermore, a comparison is made with an independent climate reconstruction based on historical weather indices valid for the northern side of the Swiss Alps. A fairly good agreement is found between both spring rainfall reconstructions at low frequency intervals during 1755–1862 and 1919–1981. This preliminary study shows that tree-rings can be used to reconstruct spring rainfall variability for inner Alpine dry valleys. Received December 18, 2000 Revised May 28, 2001  相似文献   

7.
Summary  This paper presents a classification of weather types in the Mediterranean Basin based on cluster analysis of the daily occurrences of several surface pressure centers and the subjective identification of 500 hPa trough axis positions (1992–1996). The procedure results in 20 types that explain 69% of overall pressure center variance and which are consistent with the seasonal succession of regional circulation. The development of weather types in winter is primarily controlled by the eastward propagation of barotropic waves while departures from the zonal flow pattern in summer tend to be linked to blocked stationary pools. H1-types with anticyclonic circulation in the Western Mediterranean and cyclonic flow in the eastern part are well interrelated with zonal and anticyclonic general weather types in Central Europe. H2-types featuring a weak Azores Anticyclone interrelate with a variety of meridional circulation types after the Hess and Brezowski (1969) classification. The 20 types explain rainfall variance in the core Mediterranean regions (as defined by principal components) to a high degree while rainfall variance in marginal regions is influenced by circulation patterns not being typical for the Mediterranean Basin. Received January 29, 1999 Revised March 28, 2000  相似文献   

8.
Summary The relationship of summer monsoon over India with the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode has been investigated applying simple statistical techniques. While a long time series of 132 years based on 1871–2002 for both summer monsoon rainfall as well as dipole mode index has been used in this study, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data (1948–2002) are used to examine the circulation features associated with the extreme dipole and monsoon phases. These flow patterns bring out the dynamics of the dipole – monsoon relationship. Lead/lag correlations between the dipole mode index and the Indian monsoon rainfall are computed. Results reveal that numerically the relationship is stronger following the monsoon. The lower troposphere flow patterns at 850 hPa associated with the extreme phases of the dipole and monsoon are consistent with the correlation analysis. Further a strong (weak) summer monsoon favours the development of the negative (positive) dipole event in autumn. The sliding correlations between Indian monsoon rainfall and the dipole mode index suggest that the impact of monsoon over dipole is weakening after 1960s. This weakening relationship has been evidenced by the composites of sea-surface temperature anomalies and circulation patterns. All the above analysis suggests that the summer monsoon has more influence on the dipole mode than vice-a-versa.  相似文献   

9.
Rainfall is a principal element of the hydrological cycle and its variability is important from both the scientific as well as practical point of view. Wavelet regression (WR) technique is proposed and developed to analyze and predict the rainfall forecast in this study. The WR model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and linear regression model. This study uses rainfall data from 21 stations in Assam, India over 102 years from 1901 to 2002. The calibration and validation performance of the models is evaluated with appropriate statistical methods. The root mean square errors (RMSE), N-S index, and correlation coefficient (R) statistics were used for evaluating the accuracy of the WR models. The accuracy of the WR models was then compared with those of the artificial neural networks (ANN) models. The results of monthly rainfall series modeling indicate that the performances of wavelet regression models are found to be more accurate than the ANN models.  相似文献   

10.
Summary Spatial scales of variability in seasonal rainfall over Africa are investigated by means of statistical and numerical techniques. In the statistical analysis spatial structure is studied using gridded 0.5° resolution monthly data in the period 1948–1998. The de-seasonalized time series are subjected to successive principal component (PC) analysis, allowing the number of modes to vary from 10 to 24, producing cells of varying dimension. Then the original rainfall data within each cell are cross-correlated (internal), then averaged and compared with the adjacent cells (external) for each PC solution. By considering the ratio of internal to external correlation, the spatial scales of rainfall variability are evaluated and an optimum solution is found whose cell dimensions are approximately 106 km2. The aspect of scale is further studied for southern Africa by consideration of numerical model ensemble simulations over the period 1985–1999 forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The hindcast products are compared with observed January to March (JFM) rainfall, based on a station-satellite merged analysis of precipitation (CMAP) data at 2.5° resolution. Validations for different sized areas indicate that cumulative standardized errors are greatest at the scale of a single grid cell (104 km2) and decrease 20–30% by averaging over successively larger areas (106 km2).  相似文献   

11.
The spatio-temporal variability in summer rainfall within eastern China is identified based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily rain-gauge precipitation data for the period 1979–2003. Spatial coherence of rainfall is found in the Yangtze Basin, and a wavelet transform is applied to the corresponding principal component to capture the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of Yangtze rainfall. The ensemble mean wavelet spectrum, representing statistically significant intraseasonal variability, shows a predominant oscillation in summer Yangtze rainfall with a period of 20–50 days; a 10–20-day oscillation is pronounced during June and July. This finding suggests that the 20–50-day oscillation is a major agent in regulating summer Yangtze rainfall. Composite analyses reveal that the 20–50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall arises in response to intraseasonal variations in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which in turn is modulated by a Rossby wave-like coupled circulation–convection system that propagates northward and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific. When an anomalous cyclone associated with this Rossby wave-like system reaches the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea, the WNPSH retreats northeastward due to a reduction in local pressure. Under these conditions, strong monsoonal southwesterlies blow mainly toward the SCS–Philippine Sea, while dry conditions form in the Yangtze Basin, with a pronounced divergent flow pattern. In contrast, the movement of an anomalous anticyclone over the SCS–Philippine Sea results in the southwestward extension of the WNPSH; consequently, the tropical monsoonal southwesterlies veer to the northeast over the SCS and then converge toward the Yangtze Basin, producing wet conditions. Therefore, the 20–50-day oscillation of Yangtze rainfall is also manifest as a seesaw pattern in convective anomalies between the Yangtze Basin and the SCS–Philippine Sea. A considerable zonal shift in the WNPSH is associated with extreme dry (wet) episodes in the Yangtze Basin, with an abrupt eastward (westward) shift in the WNPSH generally leading the extreme negative (positive) Yangtze rainfall anomaly by a 3/8-period of the 20–50-day oscillation. This finding may have implications for improving extended-range weather forecasting in the Yangtze Basin.  相似文献   

12.
The study evaluated CORDEX RCMs’ ability to project future rainfall and extreme events in the Mzingwane catchment using an ensemble average of three RCMs (RCA4, REMO2009 and CRCM5). Model validation employed the statistical mean and Pearson correlation, while trends in projected rainfall and number of rainy days were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the magnitudes of trends were determined by Sen’s slope estimator. Temporal and spatial distribution of future extreme dryness and wetness was established by using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results show that RCMs adequately represented annual and inter-annual rainfall variability and the ensemble average outperformed individual models. Trend results for the projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016–2100) for all stations at p < 0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for future climate, although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Model results suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events, particularly towards the end of the century. The findings are important for developing proactive sustainable strategies for future climate change adaption and mitigation.  相似文献   

13.
Summary In dry farming areas, where rainfall is the only source of water for crops, changes in both quantity and distribution of rainfall during the year could affect the economy of an area. Inter-annual variability makes it difficult to assess rainfall variability, especially in areas with Mediterranean climate. In this paper, interannual rainfall variations in the Alt Penedès region were evaluated using 24-h rainfall records at Vilafranca del Penedès (1889–1999) and at Sant Sadurni d’Anoia (1960–1999). The distribution patterns during the year and their changes over the time were also analysed. Rainfall data were normalised and the values corresponding to the percentiles 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 0.9 were calculated to analyse whether they were very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet periods. Annual rainfall and the rainfall recorded during the main rainfall periods during the year and its trend were analysed. Annual rainfall did not show a clear tendency, although during the last decade reduced interannual variability occurred. The percentage of dry years did not increase but the percentage of wet and very wet years decreased. During the last decade, an increase of dry spring seasons andwet autumn seasons was observed, even in normal or wetyears. These changes could affect the timing of whencrops receive water and could therefore affect their yields. Received May 31, 2000/Revised February 26, 2001  相似文献   

14.
Variability in annual mean circulation in southern high latitudes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
 Using a hierarchy of climate models together with observations from gridded analyses, I examine the atmosphere-only and coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the general circulation for the region south of 40 °S. The variability in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) is well simulated by the coupled models. A complication is that the difference between the two analyses used for verification is comparable to the analysis-model differences. An increase in variability is seen within the hierarchy of model runs although even a model without interannual variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) captures most of the observed variability. The temporal variation in MSLP in southern high latitudes has a white spectrum consistent with “random” forcing by weather events and a decoupling from oceanic “integration”. In contrast, the spatial pattern of MSLP variability shows large-scale structure that is consistent between observations and various models, even without interannual variation in SSTs. This shows that the models are sufficiently skillful to reproduce the pattern of observed variability and suggests that the pattern of variability is a characteristic of the land-sea distribution and topography. Received: 18 December 1996/Accepted: 23 May 1997  相似文献   

15.
Urban areas are faced with mounting demands for managing waste and stormwater for a cleaner environment. Rainfall information is a critical component in efficient management of urban drainage systems. A major water quality impact affecting receiving waterbodies is the discharge of untreated waste and stormwater during precipitation, termed wet weather flow. Elimination or reduction of wet weather flow in metropolitan sewer districts is a major goal of environmental protection agencies and often requires considerable capital improvements. Design of these improvements requires accurate rainfall data in conjunction with monitored wastewater flow data. Characterizing the hydrologic/hydraulic performance of the sewer using distant rain gauges can cause oversizing and wasted expenditures. Advanced technology has improved our ability to measure accurately rainfall over large areas. Weather radar, when combined with rain gauge measurements, provides detailed information concerning rainfall intensities over specific watersheds. Knowing how much rain fell over contributing areas during specific periods aids in characterizing inflow and infiltration to sanitary and combined sewers, calibration of sewer system models, and in operation of predictive real-time control measures. Described herein is the design of a system for managing rainfall information for sewer system management, along with statistical analysis of 60 events from a large metropolitan sewer district. Analysis of the lower quartile rainfall events indicates that the expected average difference is 25.61%. Upper quartile rainfall events have an expected average difference of 17.25%. Rain gauge and radar accumulations are compared and evaluated in relation to specific needs of an urban application. Overall, the events analyzed agree to within ± 8% based on the median average difference between gauge and radar.  相似文献   

16.
Summary Climate variations in the Caribbean, largely manifest in rainfall activity, have important consequences for the large-scale water budget, natural vegetation, and land use in the region. The wet and dry seasons will be defined, and the important roles played by the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in modulating the rainfall during these seasons will be discussed. The seasonal climate forecasts in this paper are made by 13 state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) and by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE), whose forecasts are obtained by a weighted combination of the individual CGCM forecasts based on a training period. The success of the models in simulating the observed 1989–2001 climatology of the various forecast parameters will be examined and linked to the models’ success in predicting the seasonal climate for individual years. Seasonal forecasts will be examined for precipitation, sea-surface temperature (SST), 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during the period 1989–2001. Evaluation metrics include root mean square (RMS) error and Brier skill score. It will be shown that the FSUSSE is superior to the individual CGCMs and their ensemble mean both in simulating the 1989–2001 climatology for the various parameters and in predicting the seasonal climate of the various parameters for individual years. The seasonal climate forecasts of the FSUSSE and of the ensemble mean of the 13 state of the art CGCMs will be evaluated for years (during the period 1989–2001) that have particular ENSO and NAO signals that are known to influence Caribbean weather, particularly the rainfall. It will be shown that the FSUSSE provides superior forecasts of rainfall, SST, 2-meter air temperature, and 850 hPa u- and v-wind components during dry summers that are modulated by negative SOI and/or positive NAO indices. Such summers have become a feature of a twenty-year pattern of drought in the Caribbean region. The results presented in this paper will show that the FSUSSE is a valuable tool for forecasting rainfall and other atmospheric and oceanic variables during such periods of drought.  相似文献   

17.
Summary The increasing use of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates, particularly in automatic applications such as operational hydrometeorological modelling or assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, has promoted the development of quality control procedures on radar data. Anomalous propagation (AP) of the radar beam due to deviation from the standard refractivity vertical profile, is one of the factors that may affect seriously the quality of radar observations because of the increase in quantity and intensity of non-precipitating clutter echoes and consequent contamination of the estimated rainfall field. Another undesired effect of AP is the change in the expected radar echo height, which may be relevant when correcting for beam blockage in radar rainfall estimation in complex terrain. The aim of this paper is to study the use of NWP mesoscale forecasts to predict and monitor AP events. A nested 15-km grid resolution version of the MASS model has been used to retrieve refractivity profiles in the coastal area of Barcelona, near a weather radar and a radiosonde station. Using the refractivity profiles two different magnitudes were computed: the vertical refractivity profile of the lowest 1000 m layer and a ducting index which describes the existence and intensity of the most super-refractive layer contained in the lowest 3-km layer. A comparison between model forecasts and radiosonde diagnostics during a six-month period showed that the model tended to underestimate the degree of super-refraction, with a bias of 4 km−1 and RMSE of 11 km−1 in the 1-km vertical refractivity gradient. Further analysis of the data showed that a combination of previous observations and forecasts allowed to produce modified forecasts improving the original direct model output, decreasing substantially the bias, reducing the RMSE by 20% and improving the skill by 40%, beating also radiosonde observations persistence.  相似文献   

18.
Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999  相似文献   

19.
Summary  The existing methods based on statistical techniques for long range forecasts of Indian monsoon rainfall have shown reasonably accurate performance, for last 11 years. Because of the limitation of such statistical techniques, new techniques may have to be tried to obtain better results. In this paper, we discuss the results of an artificial neural network model by combining two different neural networks, one explaining assumed deterministic dynamics within the time series of Indian monsoon rainfall (Model I) and other using eight regional and global predictors (Model II). The model I has been developed by using the data of past 50 years (1901–50) and the data for recent period (1951–97) has been used for verification. The model II has been developed by using the 30 year (1958–87) data and the verification of this model has been carried out using the independent data of 10 year period (1988–97). In model II, instead of using eight parameters directly as inputs, we have carried out Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the eight parameters with 30 years of data, 1958–87, and the first five principal components are included as input parameters. By combining model I and model II, a hybrid principal component neural network model (Model III) has been developed by using 30 year (1958–87) data as training period and recent 10 year period (1988–97) as verification period. Performance of the hybrid model (Model III) has been found the best among all three models developed. Rootmean square error (RMSE) of this hybrid model during the independent period (1988–97) is 4.93% as against 6.83%of the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) using the 16 parameter Power Regression model. As this hybrid model is showing good results, it is now used by the IMD for experimental long-range forecasts of summer monsoon rainfall over India as a whole. Received August 20, 1998/Revised April 20, 1999  相似文献   

20.
Review of numerical methods for nonhydrostatic weather prediction models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Summary ?Currently available computer power allows to run operational numerical weather prediction models at resolutions higher than 10 km. The aim of such high resolution modeling is the prediction of local weather, including orographically induced winds and local precipitation patterns. In this range the hydrostatic approximation is no longer valid and nonhydrostatic models have to be used instead. For several decades these models have been developed for research purposes only, but operational application is now reality. In this paper, the numerical methods used in current nonhydrostatic forecast models will be reviewed and some promising techniques in this field will be discussed. Special attention is given to aspects such as the choice of the vertical coordinate, the efficiency of algebraic solvers for semi-implicit time discretizations, and accurate and non-oscillatory advection schemes. Received July 6, 2001; revision October 12, 2001  相似文献   

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