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1.
A recent review of ozone observations and model predictions designed to determine the credibility of current stratospheric models, arrived at the following conclusions. Aside from prompt variations at altitudes above 30 km, observed variations in stratospheric ozone cannot be explained by the process of catalytic destruction; i.e. past variations in the ozone layer have been controlled by processes not included in current models. Past episodic stratospheric injections of oxides of nitrogen and chlorine have not induced changes in total ozone identifiable in the observational data. Species concentrations from different models differ greatly; by up to two orders of magnitude in some features. Even models with highly unlikely chemical reaction rates compute species concentration profiles currently considered to be in reasonable agreement with available observations. Observations of stratospheric species, particularly nitrous oxide and nitric acid, suggest that the natural stratospheric source of odd nitrogen has been underestimated by most models by 2- to 5-fold. These apparent disparities between observations and theory suggest flaws or omissions in our understanding of stratospheric ozone and a need for caution in accepting the predictions of current stratospheric models.A slightly amended but unupdated version of an invited paper presented at the Environmental Health Sciences Symposium: SST Pollution and Skin Cancer at the 50th Anniversary Congress of the Pan American Medical Association, Hollywood, Florida, October 25–29, 1976. Editor's Note: This paper, while containing an unsual number of personal opinions - which are, commendably, stated as such - does focus on an important controversy. Thus, it is published in the interest of stimulating further debate on the subject.  相似文献   

2.
Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of “alarmism”: of over-interpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change. In particular, we discuss recent studies showing that at least some of the key attributes of global warming from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases have been under-predicted, particularly in IPCC assessments of the physical science, by Working Group I. We also note the less frequent manifestation of over-prediction of key characteristics of climate in such assessments. We suggest, therefore, that scientists are biased not toward alarmism but rather the reverse: toward cautious estimates, where we define caution as erring on the side of less rather than more alarming predictions. We call this tendency “erring on the side of least drama (ESLD).” We explore some cases of ESLD at work, including predictions of Arctic ozone depletion and the possible disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, and suggest some possible causes of this directional bias, including adherence to the scientific norms of restraint, objectivity, skepticism, rationality, dispassion, and moderation. We conclude with suggestions for further work to identify and explore ESLD.  相似文献   

3.
Zahari Zlatev 《Climatic change》2010,101(3-4):447-483
The gradual increase in temperature is one of the most pronounced trends of climatic changes in the atmosphere. The pollution levels depend essentially on the emissions (both on the human-made emissions and on the biogenic emissions) as well as on the chemical reactions which take place during the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere. Since both the chemical reactions and the biogenic emissions depend on the temperature, it is obvious that the gradual increase of the temperature will have some effect on pollution levels. The impact of climatic changes on high ozone levels, which may have damaging effects on human health, is studied in this paper. Eight European suburban areas were selected. These areas are densely populated and, therefore, increased ozone pollution levels may cause harm to a great number of human beings living there. All experiments indicate that, although the changes of the ozone concentrations are relatively small, some critical levels, which are related to ozone concentrations and which may have damaging effects, will be significantly exceeded as a result of the warming trend in the future climate.  相似文献   

4.
Based on the ozone and aerological sounding data at Syowa Station (69o 00'S, 39o35'E), Antarctica during 1966－1979 and Lhasa Station (39o40'N, 91o08'E), Tibetan Plateau during 1979－1983, the processes of temperature increase in spring over the Tibetan Plateau and the Antarctica are compared in this paper, and the relationship between the increase of air temperature and variation of total ozone and ozone partial pressure is analyzed. It is found that: (1) The process of temperature increase over the Tibetan Plateau is quite different from that over the Antarctica in spring. This is a proof that the heating effects of their ground surface on the atmosphere are of great difference; (2) Sudden increase of total ozone is always associated with sudden warming in the stratosphere over the Antarctica, but sudden decrease of total ozone is associated with sudden warming in the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau in spring; and (3) There is a good positive correlation, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.85, between the temperature increase and variation of ozone partial pressure in the stratosphere over the Antarctica in spring.  相似文献   

5.
Summary A case study and statistical evaluations provide evidence that so-called ozone mini-hole events over Europe, where a rapid drop of total ozone is followed by complete recovery after a few days, are due to the northeascward motion of patches of air with low total ozone content. These patches appear to originate in subtropical latitudes. They correlate well with minima of potential vorticity near the tropopause. Contour dynamics is invoked to explain some basic features of the deformation and northward motion of the mini-holes as well as the related large-scale flow structures.  相似文献   

6.
Previous studies (e.g., Dessler et al., 1996; Haigh, 1984) have discussed the effect of cloud on modelled ozone distribution through changes in the radiative heating in the lower stratosphere. Here the relationship is investigated using an interactive chemical-radiative- transport 2D model. It is shown that, while similar cooling in the lower stratosphere due to high cloud is found, the effect on ozone is not as previously expected. The inclusion of high cloud is found to bring about a warming of the troposphere, resulting in a net heating in the lower stratosphere. This strengthens the circulation, leading to a decrease in total tropical ozone. Importantly, the effect of the cloud-induced temperature changes on heating rates does not combine linearly with the direct radiative effect of cloud changes. The possibility of a link between the high cloud increases and total ozone decreases observed in some regions during strong El Niño episodes is investigated. The possible impact on ozone of a global trend in high cloud cover is also discussed.  相似文献   

7.
Increasing greenhouse gases and likely ozone recovery will be the two most important factors influencing changes in stratospheric temperatures in the 21st century. The radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases will cause cooling in the stratosphere, while ozone recovery will lead to stratospheric warming. To investigate how stratospheric temperatures change under the two opposite forcings in the 21st century, we use observed ozone and reanalysis data as well as simulation results from four coupled oceanic and atmo- spheric general circulation models （GISS-ER, GFDL-CM20, NCAR-CCSM3, and UKMO-HadCM3） used in the IPCC （Intergovernment Panel for Climate Change） Fourth Assessment Report （AR4）. Observational analysis shows that total column ozone and lower stratospheric temperatures all show increasing in the past 10 years, while middle stratospheric temperatures demonstrate cooling. IPCC AR4 simulations show that greenhouse forcing alone will lead to stratospheric cooling. However, with forcing of both increasing greenhouse gases and ozone recovery, the middle stratosphere will be cooled, while the lower stratosphere will be warmed. Warming magnitudes vary from one model to another. UKMO-HadCM3 generates relatively strong warming for all three greenhouse scenarios, and warming extends to 40 hPa. GFDL-CM20 and NCAR-CCSM3 produce weak warming, and warming mainly exists at lower levels, below about 60 hPa. In addition, we also discuss the effect of temperature changes on ozone recovery.  相似文献   

8.
Previous studies have found amplified warming over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia in summer since the mid-1990s relative to elsewhere on the Eurasian continent, but the cause of the amplification in these two regions remains unclear. In this study, we compared the individual contributions of influential factors for amplified warming over these two regions through a quantitative diagnostic analysis based on CFRAM (climate feedback-response analysis method). The changes in surface air temperature are decomposed into the partial changes due to radiative processes (including CO2concentration, incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, surface albedo, water vapor content, ozone concentration, and clouds) and non-radiative processes (including surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes). Our results suggest that the enhanced warming over these two regions is primarily attributable to changes in the radiative processes, which contributed 0.62 and 0.98 K to the region-averaged warming over Europe-West Asia (1.00 K) and Northeast Asia (1.02 K), respectively. Among the radiative processes, the main drivers were clouds, CO2concentration, and water vapor content. The cloud term alone contributed to the mean amplitude of warming by 0.40 and0.85 K in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia, respectively. In comparison, the non-radiative processes made a much weaker contribution due to the combined impact of surface sensible heat flux, surface latent heat flux, and dynamical processes, accounting for only 0.38 K for the warming in Europe-West Asia and 0.05 K for the warming in Northeast Asia.The resemblance between the influential factors for the amplified warming in these two separate regions implies a common dynamical origin. Thus, this validates the possibility that they originate from the Silk Road pattern.  相似文献   

9.
根据2001～2003年期间获得的大气臭氧探空资料,揭示了北京地区上空对流层顶高度的某些变化特征及其对上对流层(UT)和下平流层(LS)区域内大气臭氧含量变化的影响.结果显示:北京地区上空对流层顶高度的平均值约11.1 km,其变化范围为7.7～14.4 km,臭氧层顶始终处在对流层顶下方约0.9 km高度处.对流层顶高度变化与臭氧总量变化之间的关系相对较弱.通常情况下,LS中的臭氧积分量明显高于UT中的相应值,并且二者呈相反的季节变化特征.北京地区上空仲夏和初秋季节第一对流层顶出现的频数明显减少,在第一对流层顶消失的情况下,LS中的臭氧积分量明显减少,而UT中的臭氧积分量明显增加,臭氧量减少最多发生在200～100 hPa层次中,而臭氧量增幅最大的层次是400～250 hPa.  相似文献   

10.
This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal features of the low frequency Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), its oceanic and atmospheric footprint and its associated hydroclimate impact. To accomplish this, we compare and evaluate the representation of AMO-related features both in observations and in historical simulations of the twentieth century climate from models participating in the IPCC’s CMIP5 project. Climate models from international leading research institutions are chosen: CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, UKMO-HadCM3 and ECHAM6/MPI-ESM-LR. Each model employed includes at least three and as many as nine ensemble members. Our analysis suggests that the four models underestimate the characteristic period of the AMO, as well as its temporal variability; this is associated with an underestimation/overestimation of spectral peaks in the 70–80 year/10–20 year range. The four models manifest the mid-latitude focus of the AMO-related SST anomalies, as well as certain features of its subsurface heat content signal. However, they are limited when it comes to simulating some of the key oceanic and atmospheric footprints of the phenomenon, such as its signature on subsurface salinity, oceanic heat content and geopotential height anomalies. Thus, it is not surprising that the models are unable to capture the majority of the associated hydroclimate impact on the neighboring continents, including underestimation of the surface warming that is linked to the positive phase of the AMO and is critical for the models to be trusted on projections of future climate and decadal predictions.  相似文献   

11.
东亚低纬地区局地Hadley环流特征及其与大气臭氧的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
利用1975—2008年NCEP/NCAR的逐月平均风场资料及1975—2001年ECMWF的逐月多层臭氧质量混合比资料,用大气环流三维分解方法研究了东亚低纬度地区之局地Hadley环流的结构及年代际演变特征,分析了该区域局地Hadley环流异常时对应大气臭氧的空间距平分布。研究结果表明:(1)东亚低纬度地区局地Hadley环流既与纬圈平均Hadley环流具有明显的季节变化,但又具有明显区别于纬圈平均Hadley环流的自身结构特征:除冬季存在明显向南、向北输送的两闭合环流圈外,局地Hadley环流在其余季节均以向南输送为主;(2)该局地Hadley环流具有不同于纬圈平均Hadley环流的年代际演变特征,在整个研究时段上以振荡变化为主,并没有表现出象纬圈平均值那样明显的增强趋势;(3)区域赤道上空平流层20～50 hPa大气臭氧的正负距平异常中包含有局地Hadley环流的异常信息:当局地Hadley环流异常强时,区域赤道上空20～50 hPa大气臭氧有一显著负距平异常中心,反之亦然。  相似文献   

12.
Wilhelm May 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):283-313
In this study, concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases as well as the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are prescribed to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled climate model so that the simulated global warming does not exceed 2°C relative to pre-industrial times. The climatic changes associated with this so-called “2°C-stabilization” scenario are assessed in further detail, considering a variety of meteorological and oceanic variables. The climatic changes associated with such a relatively weak climate forcing supplement the recently published fourth assessment report by the IPCC in that such a stabilization scenario can only be achieved by mitigation initiatives. Also, the impact of the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations on the simulated climatic changes is investigated. For this particular climate model, the 2°C-stabilization scenario is characterized by the following atmospheric concentrations of the well-mixed greenhouse gases: 418 ppm (CO2), 2,026 ppb (CH4), and 331 ppb (N2O), 786 ppt (CFC-11) and 486 ppt (CFC-12), respectively. These greenhouse gas concentrations correspond to those for 2020 according to the SRES A1B scenario. At the same time, the anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load and stratospheric ozone concentrations are changed to the level in 2100 (again, according to the SRES A1B scenario), with a global anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emission of 28 TgS/year leading to a global anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load of 0.23 TgS. The future changes in climate associated with the 2°C-stabilization scenario show many of the typical features of other climate change scenarios, including those associated with stronger climatic forcings. That are a pronounced warming, particularly at high latitudes accompanied by a marked reduction of the sea-ice cover, a substantial increase in precipitation in the tropics as well as at mid- and high latitudes in both hemispheres but a marked reduction in the subtropics, a significant strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the tropical upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere in the extratropics accompanied by a pronounced intensification of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and a strengthening of the westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics throughout the troposphere. The magnitudes of these changes, however, are somewhat weaker than for the scenarios associated with stronger global warming due to stronger climatic forcings, such as the SRES A1B scenario. Some of the climatic changes associated with the 2°C-stabilization are relatively strong with respect to the magnitude of the simulated global warming, i.e., the pronounced warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic region, the strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient at the northern high latitudes and the general increase in precipitation. Other climatic changes, i.e., the El Niño like warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the corresponding changes in the distribution of precipitation in the tropics and in the Southern Oscillation, are not as markedly pronounced as for the scenarios with a stronger global warming. A higher anthropogenic sulphate aerosol load (for 2030 as compared to the level in 2100 according to the SRES A1B scenario) generally weakens the future changes in climate, particularly for precipitation. The most pronounced effects occur in the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics, where also the main sources of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols are located.  相似文献   

13.
利用民意调查数据,以相关研究作为补充,分析美国公众对全球变暖的认知、减缓行为和气候政策的支持等。分析表明,大部分美国民众认为全球在变暖,但很多人不了解全球变暖与温室气体的关系,把全球变暖混为大气污染和臭氧层耗竭等;不到一半的公众认为全球变暖对个人和美国是现实威胁,更多的公众认为全球变暖对后代和发展中国家是严重威胁;大部分公众认为减缓全球变暖需要改变现有的生活方式和行为,他们愿意选择较容易从事和成本低的行为减少碳排放,但不愿意从根本上改变生活方式,改变自驾车、乘飞机长途旅游这些碳排放量更大的行为;公众普遍支持政府采取措施限制温室气体排放,但不希望所采取的措施对就业和经济带来不利影响;支持通过技术进步和减免税收等措施提高能效,减少碳排放,但大部分反对为节能而提高能源税收。  相似文献   

14.
Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation is investigated based on measurements at BEO station, peak Moussala (2,925 m a.s.l.), for the period 09 August 2006 to 29 January 2008. Ozone concentration data are collected with UV-analyzer “Environnement O3 42” and meteo data with weather station “Vaisala”. There are measurements of 7Be. Data from NOAA HYSPLIT model for particle trajectories are also used. Eight wind directions and three ranges of wind velocities are employed in the analysis. A comparison of ozone concentrations in upward and downward air transport according to HYSPLIT model is made. The number of cases with ozone concentration above 63 ppb has been counted. Mann–Whitney nonparametric test is employed as a basic statistical method. Correlation between atmosphere pressure and tropospheric ozone content is made. The same is done for 7Be and ozone. The main conclusion is that there is not any local or regional pollution effect detectable at peak Moussala, but most of the ozone measured is due to emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x over a larger region. There could be some regional sources of ozone building substances in southwest direction from peak Moussala. Air transported from the north quarter has higher ozone concentrations compared to the south quarter. In vertical direction, upward transport of air masses shows higher values of ozone concentration. Higher wind velocity is associated with low ozone concentrations at peak Moussala. The annual course of ozone concentration has summer maximum and winter minimum. There is right connection between air pressure and ozone concentration. The same is valid for the correlation between 7Be and ozone. Diurnal ozone course shows daytime maximum in winter and nighttime maximum in summer.  相似文献   

15.
Analyses of emissions, and consequent chlorine loading, show that projected use of 2,2-dichloro-1,1,1-trifluoroethane (HCFC-123) will result in a virtually indiscernible impact on stratospheric ozone. Parametric scenarios uphold this conclusion, even for extreme levels of emissions far exceeding those of current technologies and practices. Additional scenarios reaffirm the conclusion for continued use – beyond the scheduled phaseout date – as a refrigerant in closed systems. By contrast, use of this compound offers unique opportunities to reduce global warming. Moreover, time-dependent analyses show that the minimal contribution to stratospheric chlorine from HCFC-123 emissions will not peak until more than a decade after the residual peaks of chlorine and bromine, from prior chlorofluorocarbon and halon releases, subside. While no single index exists to compare the relative demerits of ozone depletion and climate change, three conclusions are clear. First, reversal of the buildup of bromine and chlorine (i.e., healing of the ozone layer) is underway and progressing on target, while sufficient practical remedies for global climate change are far more difficult. Second, the analyses show that phaseout of all chlorinated, and conceptually – but much less probably – all brominated, compounds of anthropogenic origin targets some compounds that provide environmental benefits. Most chlorinated and brominated compounds do warrant phaseout; the exceptions are those with very short atmospheric lifetimes, and consequent low ozone depletion potential (ODP), that also offer offsetting environmental benefits. And third, since new global environmental concerns may, and probably will, be identified in the future, a more scientific approach is needed to determine environmental acceptability or rejection.  相似文献   

16.
Time sclice experiments are performed with the atmospheric GCM ARPEGE, developed at Météo-France, to study the impact to increases in the atmospheric carbon dioxide. This spectral model runs at T42 horizontal resolution with 30 vertical layers including a comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric resolution and a prognostic parameterization of the ozone mixing ratio. The model is forced in a 5-year control run by climatological SSTs and sea-ice extents in order to obtain an accurate simulation of the present-day climate. Two perturbed runs are performed using SSTs and sea-ice extents for doubled CO2 concentration, obtained from transient runs performed by two coupled atmospheric-oceanic models run at the Max Planck Institute (MPI) in Hamburg and the Hadley Centre (HC). A global surface temperature warming of 1.6 K is obtained with the MPI SST anomalies and 1.9 K with the HC SST anomalies. The precipitation rate increases by 4.2% (and 4.7%). The features obtained in the stratosphere (a cooling increasing with the altitude and an increase in the ozone mixing ratio) are not sensitive to the oceanic forcing. On the contrary, the anomalies in the troposphere such as a warming increasing with altitude, an acceleration of westerly jets and a raised cloud height, depend on the oceanic forcing imposed in the two perturbed runs. Special attention is given to continental areas where the impact of the oceanic forcing is studied over eight regions around the globe. Regions sensitive to oceanic forcing such as Europe are identified in contrast with areas where the patterns are driven by land-surface physical processes, such as over continental Asia. Finally, the Köppen classification is applied to the climate simulated in the three experiments. Both doubled CO2 runs show the same predominance of global warming over precipitation changes in the Kbppen analyses.  相似文献   

17.
Releases of halocarbons into the atmosphere over the last 50 years are among the factors that have contributed to changes in the Earth’s climate since pre-industrial times. Their individual and collective potential to contribute directly to surface climate change is usually gauged through calculation of their radiative efficiency, radiative forcing, and/or Global Warming Potential (GWP). For those halocarbons that contain chlorine and bromine, indirect effects on temperature via ozone layer depletion represent another way in which these gases affect climate. Further, halocarbons can also affect the temperature in the stratosphere. In this paper, we use a narrow-band radiative transfer model together with a range of climate models to examine the role of these gases on atmospheric temperatures in the stratosphere and troposphere. We evaluate in detail the halocarbon contributions to temperature changes at the tropical tropopause, and find that they have contributed a significant warming of ~0.4 K over the last 50 years, dominating the effect of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases at these levels. The fact that observed tropical temperatures have not warmed strongly suggests that other mechanisms may be countering this effect. In a climate model this warming of the tropopause layer is found to lead to a 6% smaller climate sensitivity for halocarbons on a globally averaged basis, compared to that for carbon dioxide changes. Using recent observations together with scenarios we also assess their past and predicted future direct and indirect roles on the evolution of surface temperature. We find that the indirect effect of stratospheric ozone depletion could have offset up to approximately half of the predicted past increases in surface temperature that would otherwise have occurred as a result of the direct effect of halocarbons. However, as ozone will likely recover in the next few decades, a slightly faster rate of warming should be expected from the net effect of halocarbons, and we find that together halocarbons could bring forward next century’s expected warming by ~20 years if future emissions projections are realized. In both the troposphere and stratosphere CFC-12 contributes most to the past temperature changes and the emissions projection considered suggest that HFC-134a could contribute most of the warming over the coming century.  相似文献   

18.
In accordance with numerous investigations, global climate warming due to the increased greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere can significantly influence the environment already in the near decades. In order to mitigate or prevent possible adverse consequences of this warming the technologies on reducing greenhouse gas emissions as well as a deliberate interference with climate, including its control, are under consideration. Let us analyze the present investigations on the estimate of the influence of a simultaneous increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and in the stratospheric aerosol on the global and regional climate, ozone layer, and World Ocean acidification. It is noted that the production and subsequent maintenance of the artificial aerosol layer in the stratosphere could, in principle, eliminate or retard climate warming, but it would be accompanied by a decrease in the global precipitation, especially in the tropical zone. Furthermore, the stratospheric aerosol screen does not solve the problem of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which in turn results in the further World Ocean acidification, and thus has an adverse effect on the marine part of the biosphere. Political and ethic issues connected with the deliberate global man interference with the natural environment are also under considerations.  相似文献   

19.
气候和气候变化领域的研究进展   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文
该文回顾了过去几十年来中国气象科学研究院在气候和气候变化研究方面的成果, 主要包括对我国历史气候资料的恢复、重建和整理, 气候区划, 对我国气温和降水的研究, 对青藏高原温度和降水、近地层与边界层地-气过程, 大气热源特征和臭氧变化的研究, 古气候模拟, 对气候变化的预测理论和方法以及气候和气候变化对我国社会、经济的影响等方面的研究。近50年中国气象科学研究院收集大量气候资料并整理出版了《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》; 对风能等资源进行了气候区划; 明确了近几十年中国地区在20世纪40年代和90年代出现了两个暖期, 20世纪50—60年代出现了相对冷期; 在全球变暖的背景下, 以四川为中心的西南地区自20世纪50年代到80年代一直在变冷; 20世纪80年代以后, 多雨带由华北南移到长江中下游地区; 提出青藏高原近地层与边界层地-气过程的综合物理图像; 发现青藏高原夏季臭氧低值中心; 模拟出青藏高原隆起过程中中国气候变化特征; 揭示出东亚季风环流系统及其成员; 设计了多种预报方法; 还将气候和气候变化研究成果向国家经济转化。  相似文献   

20.
Changes in the duration of the photosynthetically active period strongly influence the changes in the carbon sequestration potential of boreal forests under climatic warming. In this paper, current theories on the effects of environmental variables such as spring air and soil temperature, photoperiod and chilling temperatures on the timing and initiation of photosynthesis in boreal deciduous and coniferous trees are discussed. Different dynamic phenological modeling approaches are reviewed, and model simulations are utilized to demonstrate model predictions under changing climatic conditions. A process-based forest ecosystem model is applied to estimate the relative importance of the duration of the photosynthetically active period on the amount of annual gross primary production and net primary production of boreal coniferous forests. All applied modeling approaches predict an increasing duration of the photosynthetically active period as a result of climatic warming. However, the magnitude of the response to increasing temperature varies between models and therefore affects the predictions of the changes in production.  相似文献   

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