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Heidi Kreibich Philip Bubeck Michael Kunz Holger Mahlke Stefano Parolai Bijan Khazai James Daniell Tobia Lakes Kai Schröter 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2279-2304
Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions. 相似文献
3.
A geo-ontology-based approach to decision-making in emergency management of meteorological disasters
Ontology as a kind of method for knowledge representation is able to provide semantic integration for decision support in emergency management activities of meteorological disasters. We examine a meteorological disaster system as composed of four components: disastrous meteorological events, hazard-inducing environments, hazard-bearing bodies, and emergency management. The geospatial characteristics of these components can be represented with geographical ontology (geo-ontology). In this paper, we propose an ontology representation of domain knowledge of a meteorological disaster system descending from an adapted geospatial foundation ontology, designed to formally conceptualize the domain terms and establish relationships between those concepts. The class hierarchy and relationships of the proposed ontology are implemented finally at top level, domain level/task level, and application level. The potential application of the ontology is illustrated with a case study of prediction of secondary disasters and evacuation decision of a typhoon event. The multi-level ontology model can provide semantic support for before-, during-, after-event emergency management activities such as risk assessment, resource preparedness, and emergency response where the formed concepts and their relationships can be incorporated into reasoning sentences of these decision processes. Furthermore, the ontology model is realized with a universally used intermediate language OWL, which enables it to be used in popular environments. This work will underlie the semantic integration among human beings, between heterogeneous systems and between human beings and systems, enable spatial semantic reasoning, and will be useful in guiding advanced decision support in emergency management of meteorological disasters. 相似文献
4.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2008,340(9-10):644-650
The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies. 相似文献
5.
2010年8月8日凌晨,舟曲县城北侧三眼峪沟和罗家峪沟暴发了自1949年以来强度最大的特大山洪泥石流灾害。本文基于现场调查,对三眼峪沟泥石流的运动特征进行了分析。该流域泥石流的特征显示,三眼峪沟"8.8"泥石流在流域中游已基本形成,但是,由于沟谷不同地段沟谷形态及固体物质的特征不同,泥石流在冲淤和流量方面差异显著。三眼峪沟的两个支沟汇合后,泥石流流量迅速增大,但其最大峰值流量未形成叠加,主沟出山口处最大峰值流量达1833.18m3/s。 相似文献
6.
Stav Shapira Tsafrir Levi Yaron Bar-Dayan Limor Aharonson-Daniel 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1059-1074
The use of casualty modeling in the field of disaster management is well established. Nevertheless, it is currently based almost exclusively on damage to the built environment and fails to consider additional factors that may influence the number of casualties in a given event, such as behavioral features of the exposed population. The present study has taken an innovative approach and integrated behavioral traits of residents in a high-risk area in northern Israel, near the Dead Sea Transform, into a well-known casualty estimation simulation. The expected behavioral characteristics of residents during an earthquake, in city sectors with different socioeconomic rankings, were assessed using a designated survey and were applied into the casualty estimation process. In order to test the sensitivity of the behavioral factor, twelve synthetic earthquake scenarios were designed. The results shed light on the relationship between specific behavioral strategies and casualty projections and suggest that loss estimation models that do not take behavioral factors into account may overestimate the projected number of casualties. Households with low socioeconomic status were found to be more vulnerable in terms of risk of injury and death compared with those ranked higher. The present study shows the importance of raising public awareness regarding proper behavior prior to and during the event which can help increase resilience of communities, mitigate risks and losses and ultimately save lives. Further implications of these results and possible ways of improving casualty modeling and community resilience are also discussed. 相似文献
7.
H. G. H. Wildberg L. Bischoff A. Baumann 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1989,103(2):253-262
U-Pb data of zircons from various gneisses of the eastern Sierra de Guadarrama, Central Spain, make it possible to reconstruct the pre-Hercynian and Hercynian history of this area: (1) upper intercept ages (2400 Ma for meta-igneous and 2000 Ma for meta-sedimentary rocks) of discordias defined by data of anhedral zircon fractions document the existence of Early Proterozoic crust; (2) lower intercept minimum ages of anhedral zircon fractions show radiogenic lead loss at about 540 Ma due to a thermal event leading to volcanism and emplacement of granitoid rocks into Precambrian crust: growth of euhedral zircons is possibly related to this event; (3) lower intercept minimum ages of about 380 Ma defined by anhedral zircon fractions in meta-sedimentary rocks prove an Early Hercynian event. According to present knowledge on the metamorphism in the Sierra de Guadarrama this event could be explained in terms of a Barrow-type medium-pressure metamorphism. The inferred Cadomian igneous event relates the geological history of Central Spain with that of western Africa to the south and Brittany to the north. Furthermore, similarities of the crustal evolution in the area studied and other internal zones of the Hercynian belt (Moldanubian zone, French Central Massiv) are confirmed. The Early Hercynian event for the first time affected all the rocks of the area together. The pre-Hercynian evolution of the two complexes is different and the present association of the basement rocks may be explained by thrusting or in terms of Early-Hercynian nappe transport. 相似文献
8.
Julia Olson 《Geoforum》2010,41(2):293-303
The oceans are not only being transformed through privatization as management moves towards market mechanisms, the oceans are also being “zoned”, with zoning increasingly proposed as the ideal conduit for weighting different uses of the ocean. This is concomitant with a move towards ecosystem-based management that also partakes in a policy environment imbued with the commodification of nature, in which environmental services are ranked and valued according to neoliberal percepts. Crucial to these projects are the utilization of GIS technologies. This paper considers these zones of preservation and sites of conflict through an ethnographic case study of the scallop fisheries of New England, examining conflicts between harvesters, different projects to map the fishery, and ongoing efforts to reseed scallop beds. The paper explores how participants themselves articulate the changing practices of fishing and farming, redefining boundaries of nature and culture. While reseeding projects, for example, arguably participate in the market logic of neoliberalism, at the same time they may resist and redefine the terms, as communities see themselves sowing the seeds of their own sustainability and changing the terms of what counts, literally, as nature. 相似文献
9.
羌塘盆地在中生代晚期发生一次重要的构造运动,导致盆地结束海相沉积历史并形成区域性不整合。对该期构造事件发生的时代以及其对盆地油气成藏与保存的影响一直存在争议。本文根据近年来对羌塘盆地地层时代的新认识,结合盆地沉积埋藏和油气生成过程分析,认为该构造事件主要发生于早-晚白垩世之间(~100Ma),为班公湖-怒江洋盆最终闭合和拉萨-羌塘地块碰撞的结果。构造事件与盆地主要烃源岩该的生烃同时,盆地内与构造事件有关的圈闭构造为油气成藏提供了良好的场所,是盆地的主要评价和勘探目标。 相似文献
10.
鄂尔多斯盆地延长期浊积岩、震积岩、凝灰岩等事件沉积垂向上均发育典型的沉积序列,可根据其沉积序列进行识别。其主要形成于长6期至长8期,平面上分布在盆地西南部的深湖区。从形成机制上看,构造运动触发了火山活动和强烈的地震。地震活动又触发（辫状河）三角洲前缘沉积物向深湖区移动,由牵引流转化为浊流。这几种事件沉积与油气聚集关系密切。浊积岩、震积岩具有一定的储集能力,构成深水区油气的主要储集体;而凝灰岩促进了优质烃源岩的形成,并加速其演化过程。 相似文献
11.
Precambrian aluminous paragneisses in the Hara Lake area of northeastern Saskatchewan are characterized by the stable association
of cordierite and garnet with either sillimanite or biotite; alkali feldspar is an important mineral of this association.
The aluminous gneisses are interlayered with pyroxene-plagioclase gneisses that contain orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, hornblende,
and biotite. The gneisses in the study area and in the adjacent Charcoal Lake area were metamorphosed under conditions of
the granulite facies. The petrologic evidence is consistent with a first metamorphic event during which the association sillimanite-biotite
was stable, followed by a second event during which cordierite-garnet was stable. Consideration of mineral assemblages and
mineral chemistries of the aluminous gneisses in terms of experimentally established or thermodynamically derived reactions
suggests that recrystallization from the sillimanite-biotite association to cordierite-garnet took place at 680 °–750 °C and
3.2–4.4 kb. 相似文献
12.
Quantitative basin characterisation to refine debris-flow triggering criteria and processes: an example from the Italian Western Alps 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper investigates rapid channelized debris flow related to rainfalls in small alpine basins. Its goal is to evaluate
and correlate different geological and technical aspects with predisposing and triggering factors that can control these phenomena.
The study area is the upper part of the Susa Valley where 12 small basins were selected. For each of them, lithological, geomorphological,
climatic and technical information were mapped and analysed. Debris-flow triggering conditions, flow and depositional processes
were related to physical characteristics of the basin that can be easily measured and quantified. At least three different
groups of basins were found: G1) basins with one event each 4–6 years, characterised by massive or blocky calcareous rocks,
G2) basins with more than one event per year that show an abundance of layered or sheared fine-grained rocks and G3) basins
with recurrence levels exceeding 10 years, activated only by heavy and prolonged rainfalls, marked by massive or blocky coarse-grained
igneous rocks. Furthermore, important morphometric differences were found. These considerations are useful in terms of hazard
zonation and risk mitigation. 相似文献
13.
Landslide risk: some issues that determine societal acceptance 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
This paper illustrates approaches to landslide risk acceptance in various parts of the world in the context of the willingness to accept that risk, the willingness to pay to reduce the risk, and the willingness to alter the environment in the process. These factors are interlinked using the ternary ??willingness diagram?? which is also used to demonstrate how such willingness may change over time and to compare a range of generic approaches to landslide remediation as well as different conceptual approaches to landslide risk management. The willingness construct is intended to provide a readily understood framework for infrastructure owners and operators, amongst others, to understand how their approach to risk management compares with those in other regions, countries and contexts. Issues relevant to the response of society and groups of individuals to landslide risk, its acceptance and management include cultural factors, regulation and planning, budgetary constraints, vehicular vulnerability, and the often limited size of the event footprint compared to the vulnerability shadow that is cast are also discussed. 相似文献
14.
Assessing debris-flow hazard in a watershed in Taiwan 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
This paper presents the results of a pilot study for assessing debris-flow hazards using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River is investigated in this pilot study. Factors that are believed to be critical to the occurrence of debris flow are identified and considered in the assessment of debris-flow hazards. Using the spatial analysis feature of GIS, the impact of these factors, expressed in terms of debris-flow hazard (DH) index, is calculated. By taking a simple summation of all DH indexes according to each factor, the overall debris-flow hazard at a particular watershed may be assessed. The applicability of the proposed approach for analyzing the watershed of the Chen-Yu-Lan River has been confirmed with the field observations in a recent typhoon event. 相似文献
15.
New forms of hazards generated by extreme weather pose new challenges to emergency management. The purpose of this paper is to identify a typical evolution dynamics by analyzing coupling and embeddedness in risk evolution via critical infrastructure system under extreme weather. Evidence from the snow event in early 2008, China, is used to draw the viewpoint and support the argument. The paper identifies the dynamics that how a natural hazard of extreme weather evolves into a social crisis and how coupling and embeddedness contribute to the evolution. This paper makes it evident that the impact of natural hazard to a society can obtain amplification through coupling and embeddedness. Therefore, new challenges in risk evolution should become a highlighted direction for further research. This paper sheds light on a new profile for social impact research of natural hazard and provides new insights into systems thinking on emergency management. 相似文献
16.
《Geoforum》2014
Biosecurity, in broad terms, aims to reduce the impact and incidence of threats to life through regulatory means. For reasons we raise in this paper, such regulation can often lead to the specification of disease free processes within the food and farming industry, with biosecurity success measured in terms of the degree of compliance with and allegiance to modern farming practice. We counter this progressive narrative in three ways. First we draw on UK-based qualitative fieldwork with vets, farmers and pigs to demonstrate how biosecure farming and disease freedom are translated and qualified, in practice, to pathogen free, pathogen management and ultimately to configuring health through immunity management. Second, these translations demonstrate how building health is dependent on spatial and microbiological diversity rather than uniformity. Crucially, health involves patch-work and situated knowledge practices that are under threat within an industry increasingly marked by control and homogeneity. Third, in conceptual terms, we argue that while pig farming is organised through both biosecurity and a biopolitical regulation of life, immunity opens up political space for exploring an alternative politics of life, one where farmers and others are not so much made responsible for disease prevention, but make valued contributions to understandings of animal health and food security. 相似文献
17.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies. 相似文献
18.
A high-resolution unstructured grid two-dimensional finite-element model was applied to simulate the storm surge associated
with the October 2010 extratropical storm in Lake Winnipeg. The wind and pressure fields from two high-resolution weather
forecast models were used to drive the hydrodynamic model. The model results were compared with the observed water levels
at several stations during the storm event. The model-predicted storm surge in the range of 0.6–1.5 m is comparable with observations
in the southern basin of Lake Winnipeg. Model results are further analyzed to assess the transport of water between north
and south basins of Lake Winnipeg during the event. Computed water surface elevations at specific locations at the outlet
of the rivers and embayments indicate that the model needs some improvements in terms of grid resolution in those areas. 相似文献
19.
《Sedimentology》2018,65(3):952-992
Hybrid event beds comprising both clean and mud‐rich sandstone are important components of many deep‐water systems and reflect the passage of turbulent sediment gravity flows with zones of clay‐damped or suppressed turbulence. ‘Behind‐outcrop’ cores from the Pennsylvanian deep‐water Ross Sandstone Formation reveal hybrid event beds with a wide range of expression in terms of relative abundance, character and inferred origin. Muddy hybrid event beds first appear in the underlying Clare Shale Formation where they are interpreted as the distal run‐out of the wakes to flows which deposited most of their sand up‐dip before transforming to fluid mud. These are overlain by unusually thick (up to 4·4 m), coarse sandy hybrid event beds (89% of the lowermost Ross Formation by thickness) that record deposition from outsized flows in which transformations were driven by both substrate entrainment in the body of the flow and clay fractionation in the wake. A switch to dominantly fine‐grained sand was accompanied initially by the arrest of turbulence‐damped, mud‐rich flows with evidence for transitional flow conditions and thick fluid mud caps. The mid and upper Ross Formation contain metre‐scale bed sets of hybrid event beds (21 to 14%, respectively) in (i) upward‐sandying bed set associations immediately beneath amalgamated sheet or channel elements; (ii) stacked thick‐bedded and thin‐bedded hybrid event bed‐dominated bed sets; (iii) associations of hybrid event bed‐dominated bed sets alternating with conventional turbidites; and (iv) rare outsized hybrid event beds. Hybrid event bed dominance in the lower Ross Formation may reflect significant initial disequilibrium, a bias towards large‐volume flows in distal sectors of the basin, extensive mud‐draped slopes and greater drop heights promoting erosion. Higher in the formation, hybrid event beds record local perturbations related to channel switching, lobe relocations and extension of channels across the fan surface. The Ross Sandstone Formation confirms that hybrid event beds can form in a variety of ways, even in the same system, and that different flow transformation mechanisms may operate even during the passage of a single flow. 相似文献
20.
Failure Mechanism of a Shallow Landslide at Tun-Sardon Road Cut Section of Penang Island,Malaysia 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The occurrences of shallow landslides in residual soils of Penang hilly areas are common in rainy days. The failure mechanisms
of a shallow landslide occurred at km 3.9 road in Tun-Sardon area of Penang Island have been simulated using two different
methods of slope stability analysis. The results indicate that the failure was initiated locally inside the slope and then
propagated further to induce total failure. The failure propagation was started from initial local failure zone and was driven
by mobilized shear strength along the shear plane. The slope was marginally stable with an overall factor of safety of 1.32
before it failed to a rainfall event on September 6, 2008. It is found from back calculation that the rain infiltration raised
the temporary water level and reduced the shearing strength of soil to a minimum level with increased pore water pressure
to trigger the failure. This paper suggests further research on shallow landslide of Penang Island considering the direct
rainfall infiltration effect in terms of groundwater pressure-head distribution inside the slope. 相似文献