共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
A. D. Rao P. L. N. Murty Indu Jain R. S. Kankara S. K. Dube T. S. Murty 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(3):1431-1441
The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding. 相似文献
2.
Xinyu Jiang Nobuhito Mori Hirokazu Tatano Lijiao Yang Yoko Shibutani 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(1):35-53
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area. 相似文献
3.
Jiang Xinyu Mori Nobuhito Tatano Hirokazu Yang Lijiao Shibutani Yoko 《Natural Hazards》2015,84(1):35-49
This paper estimates property loss and business interruption loss under scenarios of storm surge inundation to explore the economic impact of climate change on Ise Bay, Japan. Scenarios-based analyses are conducted with respect to Typhoon Vera, which caused the most severe storm surge in the recorded history of Japan in 1959. Four different hazard scenarios are chosen from a series of typhoon storm surge inundation simulations: Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the past seawall; Typhoon Vera’s landfall with respect to the condition of the current seawall; intensifying Typhoon Vera, but retaining its original tracks; and intensifying Typhoon Vera, but choosing the worst tracks from various possible typhoon tracks. Our economic loss estimation takes advantage of fine geographical scale census and economic census data that enable us to understand the spatial distribution of property loss and business interruption loss as well as identify the most potentially affected areas and business sectors on a sub-city scale. By comparing the property loss and business interruption loss caused by different hazard scenarios, the effect of different seawalls is evaluated and the economic impact of future climate change is estimated. The results indicate that although the current seawall can considerably reduce the scale of losses, climate change can cause Ise Bay to experience more serious storm surge inundation. Moreover, the resulting economic losses would increase significantly owing to a combination of climate change and the worst track scenario. It is, therefore, necessary to consider more countermeasures to adapt to climate change in this area.
相似文献4.
5.
V. Ranga Rao B. R. Subramanian R. Mohan R. Kannan T. Mageswaran T. Arumugam B. Rajan 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(2):453-465
A very severe cyclonic storm ‘Thane’ developed over the Bay of Bengal during 25–30 December 2011, crossed the Tamilnadu coast between Pondicherry and Cuddalore (southeast coast of India) in early hours of 30 December with a wind speed 120–140 km/h. The offshore tide record reveals that the surge started to generate around 1100 hours on 29 December 2011 with a height 0.4 m and later raised to 0.68 m at the time of land fall, that is, early hours (0000 hours) of 30 December 2011. Field reconnaissance survey on surge run-up and inundation distance at 15 selected locations of cyclone affected areas reveals that the vulnerability levels are highly variable along the coast. The inundation distance extended up to 30–230 m landward from the shoreline and run-up reached to 1.6–3.2 m above chart datum depending upon the cross-shore geometry of the location. In the areas (Verranampattinam, Chinamudaliyar kuppam and Silver beach) near cyclone landfall, the run-up was up to 2.5–3.2 m and the inundation distance extended up to a maximum of 230 m. However, in the areas located about 150 km north of cyclone landfall, the run-up limited from 1.6 to 1.7 m and the inundation distance extended up to only a maximum of 169 m. The inundation distance is mainly influenced by the slope of the beach. In the areas having beach slope between 1 in 135 and 1 in 220, the inundation distance was 210–230 m. However, in the areas having beach slope 1 in 17 to 1 in 34, the inundation distance is restricted between 35 and 50 m. 相似文献
6.
Flood Hazard Assessment for a Hyper-Tidal Estuary as a Function of Tide-Surge-Morphology Interaction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Charlotte Lyddon Jennifer M. Brown Nicoletta Leonardi Andrew J. Plater 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(6):1565-1586
Astronomical high tides and meteorological storm surges present a combined flood hazard to communities and infrastructure. There is a need to incorporate the impact of tide-surge interaction and the spatial and temporal variability of the combined flood hazard in flood risk assessments, especially in hyper-tidal estuaries where the consequences of tide and storm surge concurrence can be catastrophic. Delft3D-FLOW is used to assess up-estuary variability in extreme water levels for a range of historical events of different severity within the Severn Estuary, southwest England as an example. The influence of the following on flood hazard is investigated: (i) event severity, (ii) timing of the peak of a storm surge relative to tidal high water and (iii) the temporal distribution of the storm surge component (here in termed the surge skewness). Results show when modelling a local area event severity is most important control on flood hazard. Tide-surge concurrence increases flood hazard throughout the estuary. Positive surge skewness can result in a greater variability of extreme water levels and residual surge component, the effects of which are magnified up-estuary by estuarine geometry to exacerbate flood hazard. The concepts and methodology shown here can be applied to other estuaries worldwide. 相似文献
7.
8.
Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004
as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm
surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We
computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane
effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey
14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record.
Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km2 of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's
volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during
the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest
phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l−1) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality
effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms
of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe
hurricane effect. 相似文献
9.
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation. 相似文献
10.
Jeff Callaghan 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(2):129-153
Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical cyclone numbers in the Cairns region, with twice as many impacts occurring during La Niña conditions than during El Niño. Several case studies are presented of cyclone impacts on Cairns. Rapidly developing cyclones are a particularly difficult forecast problem, as they can strike the city with less than 24 hours warning. Serious inundation from storm surge often occurs some time after landfall at Cairns. 相似文献
11.
In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates. 相似文献
12.
Nicolas Bruneau Juergen Grieser Thomas Loridan Enrica Bellone Shree Khare 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):649-667
Catastrophe risk models are used to assess and manage the economic and societal impacts of natural perils such as tropical cyclones. Large ensembles of event simulations are required to generate useful model output. For example, to estimate the risk due to wind-driven storm surge and waves in tropical cyclone risk models, computationally efficient parametric representations of the wind forcing are required to enable the generation of large ensembles. This paper presents new results on the impact of including explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning in parametric wind models used to force storm surge and wave simulations in a catastrophe risk modelling context. Extra-tropical transitioning is particularly important in modelling risk on the Japanese coastline, as roughly 40 % of typhoons hitting the Japanese mainland are transitioning before landfall. Using both a historical and idealized track set, we compare maximum storm surge and wave footprints along the Japanese coastline for models that include, and do not include, explicit representations of extra-tropical transitioning. We find that the inclusion of extra-tropical transitioning leads to lower storm surge (10–20 %) and waves (5–15 %) on the southern Japanese coast, with significantly higher storm surge and waves along the northern coast (25–50 %). The results of this paper demonstrate that useful risk assessment of coastal flood risk in Japan must consider the extra-tropical transitioning process. 相似文献
13.
ABSTRACTThis study investigates the storm surge caused by Typhoon Hato, which severely affected Macau, Hong Kong, and other coastal cities in China on 23 August 2017. A typhoon and storm surge coupling model demonstrated that the maximum storm surge height reached nearly 2.5?m along the coast of Macau, while that in Hong Kong was slightly below 2?m. Furthermore, a field survey of urban flooding revealed evidence of a 2.25-m inundation in downtown Macau and a 0.55-m inundation on Lantau Island, Hong Kong, which were likely exacerbated by a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and surface water runoff over a complex hilly terrain. Significant wave overtopping and runup also occurred in beach and port areas. A typhoon track analysis confirmed that several comparably strong typhoons have followed similar ESE to WNW trajectories and made landfall in the Pearl River Delta in the last few decades. Although Hato was not the strongest of these storms, its forward speed of about 32.5?km/h was remarkably faster than those of other comparable typhoons. Higher levels of storm signal warnings were issued earlier in Hong Kong than in Macau, raising questions about the appropriate timing of warnings in these two nearby areas. Our analysis of the storm’s pattern suggests that both regions’ decisions regarding signal issuance could be considered reasonable or at least cannot be simply blamed, given the rapid motion and intensification of Hato and the associated economic risks at stake. 相似文献
14.
15.
G. Muthusankar C. Lakshumanan V. Pradeep-Kishore S. Eswaramoorthi M. P. Jonathan 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):2401-2409
A study on the possible inundation limit in SE coast of India was carried out using various physical, geological and satellite imageries. The coastal inundation hazard map was prepared for this particular region as it was affected by many cyclones, flooding, storm surge and tsunami waves during the last six decades. The results were generated using various satellite data (IRS-P6 LISS3; LANDSAT ETM; LANDSAT-5 ETM; LANDSAT MSS) and digital elevation models (ASTER GLOBAL DEM), and a coastal vulnerability index was generated for the entire coastal stretch of Nagapattinam region in SE coast of India. The coastal area which will be submerged totally due to a 1–5 m rise in water level due to any major natural disaster (tsunami or cyclone) indicates that 56–320 km2 will be submerged in this particular region. The results suggest that nearly 7 towns and 69 villages with 667,477 people will be affected and indicate that proper planning needs to be done for future development. 相似文献
16.
Gazi Md. Khalil 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(1):11-24
Bangladesh, with its repeated cycle of floods, cyclones, and storm surges, has proved to be one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world. During the years from 1797 to 1991, Bangladesh has been hit by 60 severe cyclones (mostly accompanied by storm surges). This paper gives a brief account of these disasters with particular reference to the wind speed, surge height, loss of life, and damage to crops and properties, etc.In order to protect the coastal areas of Bangladesh from cyclonic storm surges and floods, a major system of embankments was constructed during the 1960s and 1970s, but this is now in need of rehabilitation. The Cyclone Protection Project, which was approved by the World Bank in 1989, would rehabilitate some of the existing embankments, build new embankments, and construct roads. Locally available materials, indigenous technology, and cheap surplus manpower should be used in this project. A variety of fruit trees should be planted along the dikes and roads.To the south-western part of Bangladesh bordering the Bay of Bengal, lies the world's largest single mangrove tract, known as the Sunderban, which covers a total area of 571 500 ha. This mangrove forest is of extreme importance since it provides efficient protection to life and property against cyclones and storm surges. But due to deforestation, the width of the mangrove belt is being rapidly diminished. The author therefore lays emphasis on coastal afforestation.Absolute security against cyclone hazard is probably out of the question, but an effective cyclone warning response can definitely reduce loss of life and damage to property. The author discusses the current conditions for cyclone forecasting and warning in Bangladesh, and then puts forward some proposals for improving the Cyclone Preparedness Programme. 相似文献
17.
M. Mohapatra G. S. Mandal B. K. Bandyopadhyay Ajit Tyagi U. C. Mohanty 《Natural Hazards》2012,63(3):1601-1620
Hazards associated with tropical cyclones are long-duration rotatory high-velocity winds, very heavy rain and storm tide. India has a coastline of about 7,516?km of which 5,400?km is along the mainland. The entire coast is affected by cyclones with varying frequency and intensity. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the nodal government agency that provides weather services related to cyclones in India. However, IMD has not identified cyclone-prone districts following any specific definition though the districts for which cyclone warnings are issued have been identified. On the other hand, for the purpose of better cyclone disaster management in the country, it is necessary to define cyclone proneness and identify cyclone-prone coastal districts. It is also necessary to decide degree of hazard proneness of a district by considering cyclone parameters so that mitigation measures are prioritised. In this context, an attempt has been made to prepare a list of cyclone hazard prone districts by adopting hazard criteria. Out of 96 districts under consideration, 12, 45, 31 and 08 districts are in very high, high, moderate and low categories of proneness, respectively. In general, the coastal districts of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are more prone and are in the high to very high category. The cyclone hazard proneness factor is very high for the districts of Nellore, East Godawari, and Krishna in Andhra Pradesh; Yanam in Puducherry; Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara and Jagatsinghpur in Orissa; and South and North 24 Parganas, Medinipur and Kolkata in West Bengal. The results give a realistic picture of degree of cyclone hazard proneness of districts, as they represent the frequency and intensity of land falling cyclones along with all other hazards like rainfall, wind and storm surge. The categorisation of districts with degree of proneness also tallies with observed pictures. Therefore, this classification of coastal districts based on hazard may be considered for all the required purposes including coastal zone management and planning. However, the vulnerability of the place has not been taken into consideration. Therefore, composite cyclone risk of a district, which is the product of hazard and vulnerability, needs to be assessed separately through detailed study. 相似文献
18.
Meso-scale atmospheric events promote phytoplankton blooms in the coastal Bay of Bengal 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
K MANEESHA V V S S SARMA N P C REDDY Y SADHURAM T V RAMANA MURTY V V SARMA M DILEEP KUMAR 《Journal of Earth System Science》2011,120(4):773-782
The Bay of Bengal is considered to be a low productive region compared to the Arabian Sea based on conventional seasonal observations.
Such seasonal observations are not representative of a calendar year since the conventional approach might miss episodic high
productive events associated with extreme atmospheric processes. We examined here the influence of extreme atmospheric events,
such as heavy rainfall and cyclone Sidr, on phytoplankton biomass in the western Bay of Bengal using both in situ time-series observations and satellite derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) and sea surface temperature (SST). Supply of nutrients through the runoff driven by episodic heavy rainfall (234 mm) on
4–5 October 2007 caused an increase in Chl a concentration by four times than the previous in the coastal Bay was observed within two weeks. Similar increase in Chl a, by 3 to 10 times, was observed on the right side of the cyclone Sidr track in the central Bay of Bengal after the cyclone Sidr. These two episodic events caused phytoplankton blooms in the western Bay of Bengal which enhanced ~40% of fishery production
during October–December 2007 compared to that in the same period in 2006. 相似文献
19.
Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying
capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric
pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to
point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding
potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic
for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even
greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches
of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the
hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the
bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down)
water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from
southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case.
Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to
redistribute mass. 相似文献
20.
Hurricane surge events have caused devastating damage in active-hurricane areas all over the world. The ability to predict surge elevations and to use this information for damage estimation is fundamental for saving lives and protecting property. In this study, we developed a framework for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identifying areas that are more prone to them. The approach is based on the joint probability method with optimal sampling (JPM-OS) using surge response functions (SRFs) (JPM-OS-SRF). Derived from a discrete set of high-fidelity storm surge simulations, SRFs are non-dimensional, physics-based empirical equations with an algebraic form, used to rapidly estimate surge as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approach angle and landfall location). The advantage of an SRF-based approach is that a continuum of storm scenarios can be efficiently evaluated and used to estimate continuous probability density functions for surge extremes, producing more statistically stable surge hazard assessments without adding measurably to epistemic uncertainty. SRFs were developed along the coastline and then used to estimate maximum surge elevations with respect to a set of hurricane parameters. Integrating information such as ground elevation, property value and population with the JPM-OS-SRF allows quantification of storm surge-induced hazard impacts over the continuum of storm possibilities, yielding a framework to create the following risk-based products, which can be used to assist in hurricane hazard management and decision making: (1) expected annual loss maps; (2) flood damage versus return period relationships; and (3) affected business (e.g., number of business, number of employees) versus return period relationships. By employing several simplifying assumptions, the framework is demonstrated at three northern Gulf of Mexico study sites exhibiting similar surge hazard exposure. The framework results reveal Gulfport, MS, USA is at relatively more risk of economic loss than Corpus Christi, TX, USA, and Panama City, FL, USA. Note that economic processes are complex and very interrelated to most other human activities. Our intention here is to present a methodology to quantify the flood damage (i.e., infrastructure economic loss, number of businesses affected, number of employees in these affected businesses and sales volume in these affected businesses) but not to discuss the complex interactions of these damages with other economic activities and recovery plans. 相似文献