共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 468 毫秒
1.
Ruirui Sun Xiaoling Wang Zhengyin Zhou Xuefei Ao Xiaopei Sun Mingrui Song 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(3):1547-1568
Dam-break floods have been of increasing concern to safety engineers and decision makers. The presence of complex terrain in inundation areas multiplies the simulation difficulty of flood routing. In previous studies, representing the flood routing parameters empirically does not reflect the characteristics of flood routing, which strongly influences the accurate assessment of the dam-break consequences. The basis for carrying out dangerous reservoir reinforcement is just engineering safety, without considering the actual situation of downstream areas. In this study, a comprehensive risk analysis of the dam-break flood was implemented based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. First, coupled with the volume of fluid method, a three-dimensional k–? turbulence mathematical model was developed for flood routing in complex inundation areas. Then, based on the flow parameters obtained through computational fluid dynamics modeling, the attribute measure methodology was used for the evaluation of consequences combined with the calculation of the dam-break consequences (loss of life, economic loss, social and environmental influence). Furthermore, a methodology containing the combined weight method and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution method was proposed for risk ranking of dangerous reservoirs due to its logical consideration of scalar values that simultaneously account for both the best and worst alternatives. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to provide information about the stability of risk ranking. The aforementioned model and methodology are applied to a case involving five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin in China for Part II of this study. 相似文献
2.
The risk analysis of reservoir regulation in the flood season is crucial and provides the valuable information for reservoir flood control, safety operation, and decision making, especially under climate change. The purpose of this study is to propose a framework for reasonably estimating the variation of reservoir regulation risk including the dam extreme risk and the overtopping risk during the flood season under climate change. The framework consists of an integrated diagnostic system for detecting the climate abrupt change time, a copula function-based bivariate statistical approach for modeling the dependence between the flood peak and flood volume, a Monte Carlo simulation for generating numerous random flood peak–volume pairs, and a risk calculation model for routing the design flood hydrographs to obtain the frequency curve of the maximum water level reached in front of dam and evaluating the reservoir regulation risk. The methodology was implemented in the Chengbihe reservoir in south China by using the 55-year (1963–2017) hydrometeorological data, including temperature, evaporation, precipitation, and streamflow, in the flood season. Results show that the hydrometeorological series during the flood season changed abruptly in 1992 and the entire data can be divided into two periods (1963–1992 and 1993–2017). The dam extreme risk and overtopping risk during the two periods are assessed, respectively, and a comparison analysis is made based on different flood limit water-level schemes (185.00–188.50 m). It demonstrates that both the dam extreme risk and the dam overtopping risk increase under the influence of climate change. The dam extreme risk increases by 22.91–95.03%, while the climate change-induced increase in the dam overtopping risk is between 38.62 and 123.59%, which indicates that the dam overtopping risk is more sensitive to climate change than the dam extreme risk. The risk evaluations in the study are of great significance in the safety operation and risk management of reservoirs under future climate change.
相似文献3.
In dam safety assessment, it is customary to focus on stability analysis, and the safety factor is regarded as an assessment
index that cannot correctly reflect the effect of multi-factors and variable uncertainty. The factors that induce dam breaks
are complex and uncertain; however, three primary ones can be identified: hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability.
In this paper, the risk probability and the dam break threshold value for each factor individually, as well as coupled factors,
are studied. The threshold value is acquired using the relationship formula between risk probability and dam type. The Dongwushi
reservoir located in the Hebei province of China is taken as a case study. The results show that the dam break threshold values
for hydrological factors, seepage and bank slope instability are 2.53, 2.02 and 2.69, respectively. The integrated dam break
threshold value for the coupled factors is 1.25, which indicates that the dam is under serious stress according to the established
risk assessment standard. The safety factor is calculated as 1.15 using the Bishop method, which indicates that the dam is
under serious stress. The results obtained by the proposed method are consistent with those of the Bishop method. Finally,
the proposed theory and method are introduced into a dam safety evaluation system (DSES) for convenient and efficient dam
safety management. 相似文献
4.
现有针对河湖水系连通伴生风险分析的方法或不具备物理过程模拟,或缺乏对风险随机性的探讨。以沂沭河水系连通工程为例,在水力学模型的基础上,考虑连通河网不同河流洪峰相关性,创建随机水情条件下河湖水系连通伴生风险分析模型。通过1 200组水情条件,对沂沭河水系上游进行洪水过程模拟,针对橡胶坝可能造成的洪峰叠加问题,提出不同洪水重现期下橡胶坝运行调度风险管控建议。结果表明:① 50年一遇与100年一遇洪水重现期条件下,均呈现出橡胶坝坝址处水位风险极高（概率P>0.8）,流速风险较低（P < 0.3）的规律,且每当橡胶坝高度升高25%的设计坝高时,沂河与沭河坝前水位风险皆提高约70%,沭河坝址处流速风险降低约50%。②若在汛前塌坝下泄蓄水,人为洪峰的叠加会使沭河中下游河段产生极高风险。③通过划分水位、流速综合洪水风险安全域,洪水重现期50年一遇时,建议沂沭河橡胶坝在汛前调节至低于50%设计坝高,且控制沭河水深和流速分别在12 m和2.23 m/s以内,可以降低水位和流速风险至低风险（P < 0.4）;洪水重现期100年一遇时,需将橡胶坝调至25%设计坝高以下,或者汛前尽早缓慢塌坝下泄蓄水,才能有效降低沂沭河水系防洪压力。 相似文献
5.
溃坝风险后果分析是水库大坝风险评估的重要内容。影响溃坝风险后果的因素多,作用机理复杂,导致不同研究方法的分析结果与实际后果之间均存在较大差异。从风险后果的内涵出发,建议风险后果可分为生命损失、经济损失和环境影响3个基础类别;分析国外研究成果与应用情况,明确从基于历史资料构建经验模型到基于致灾机理构建物理模型的发展趋势;分析中国溃坝风险后果评估现状,明确结合致灾机理的经验模型分析、半定量评价和区域损失叠加计算三类研究方法在准确性和实用性方面的优点与不足;提出应从加强致灾机理分析、注重准确性与实用性的结合、重视非工程措施的重要作用和在应用中不断改进等4个方面采取措施,提高风险后果研究水平和实际应用效果。 相似文献
6.
三峡水库蓄水后水深的增加导致洪水传播过程中沙峰滞后于洪峰的时间增加,利用洪峰和沙峰异步运动特性进行沙峰排沙调度是减缓水库淤积的重要手段之一。采用三维数值模型SCHISM（Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model）研究三峡库区洪峰和沙峰的异步运动规律,基于2013年的汛期水沙传播过程验证模型的可靠性和准确性,初步分析不同洪水位下洪峰和沙峰的异步运动特性。结果表明:数值模型能够准确地模拟三峡水库汛期洪峰和沙峰长距离的传播过程;坝前蓄水位对洪峰传播时间的影响不大,但是对沙峰传播时间的影响较为显著;坝前水位增加使水流的流速减小和挟沙能力降低,沙峰传播速度减慢且峰值沿程不断降低,最终导致库区中沙峰滞后于洪峰出现的时间沿程越来越长。研究结果可为进一步优化三峡水库的沙峰排沙调度等提供科学依据。 相似文献
7.
洪水资源利用有助于缓解北方地区的水资源紧缺形势,风险适度性作为洪水资源利用三大适度性之一,用于指导洪水资源的合理开发与安全利用。在水库汛限水位调整中,提出采用不同频率设计洪水进行不同汛限水位条件下的洪水调节计算,并结合水库的经济与生态供水目标进行长系列用水调度模拟和供水效益分析,综合确定风险适度性的方法。对密云水库的计算分析表明,主汛期汛限水位从原设计的147.00 m安全抬高至目前的152.00 m是可靠的,其风险阈值上限为153.20 m;后汛期汛限水位可从目前的154.00 m安全抬高至155.40 m。两种情况下水库供水保证率可以分别提高0.30%和0.01%,且大坝和下游防护区的防洪风险率分别为0.01%和1%,与原设计一致,满足洪水资源安全利用的风险适度性要求。 相似文献
8.
受地形影响,西南山区水源以水库为主,由于大部分水库修建时间较早,在西南季风气候降水集中影响下,存在较大的溃坝风险。溃坝洪水突发性与破坏性极强,进行水库溃坝洪水计算及洪水演进分析,是在水库大坝发生突发性安全事故时科学应对的基础。结合西南山区实际,优选溃坝洪水计算与洪水演进模型,并以云南省昌宁县河西水库为例,分析确定相关参数,分析指出了西南山区水库溃坝形态以全溃为主,具有溃坝洪水量极大、洪水演进迅速的特点。研究不仅可为河西水库制定大坝安全管理应急预案提供技术支撑,也能为该地区水库溃坝洪水及其演进分析提供参考借鉴。 相似文献
9.
10.
防洪系统风险分析的研究评述 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
以风险的基本概念(风险的定义、特征和风险分析方法)为基础，在排雨水道涵洞设计、堤防河道行洪、水库大坝安全、洪水及风险管理决策等诸方面对防洪系统风险分析的研究进展加以评述，并对其发展进行了展望。 相似文献
11.
12.
The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making. 相似文献
13.
14.
目前在尾矿坝稳定性和溃坝模拟分析方面,对溃口位置及水砂的流动状态难以做出准确判断。将尾矿坝稳定性和溃坝模拟有机结合,采用FLAC3D计算正常水位、洪水位、漫顶水位三种工况下尾矿坝稳定性,并利用Rhino与Fluent建立尾矿库及下游精细地形,开展尾矿库溃坝水砂在不同时刻及不同地形下的流动状态研究分析。结果表明:（1）浸润线的埋深随尾矿库水位的升高而变小,由正常水位升高至洪水位时浸润线埋深下降5～8 m,漫顶水位时坝顶浸润线沿坡面向下运移约8 m;（2）库水位对剪切带及尾矿坝稳定性有显著影响,从正常水位到洪水位时,剪切带纵向上不断向坝体内部延伸,横向上不断向坝脚延伸,剪切应变率增大为5.78×10?5,尾矿坝稳定系数由1.80下降至1.32;（3）达到坝顶时剪切带急剧缩短,而剪切应变率进一步增大为3.32×10?4,尾矿坝稳定系数由1.32下降到1.18。溃坝水砂的流动状态受地形影响明显,在山谷中表现为范围减小、流速增大的汇聚流动,在平坦农田处表现为范围增大、流速减小的发散流动特点。 相似文献
15.
以介于微分方程和概率论之间的边缘数学分支随机微分方程的数学模型,对水库调洪过程中的随机现象和规律进行数学描述和分析,试图全面正确地综合各种不确定性因素对库水位随机过程的影响.根据水库蓄洪量具有Wiener过程特性的分析,推导了带有随机输入项和随机初始条件的调洪演算Ito方程.在此基础上,运用Fokker-Planck向前方程,求介了调洪过程库水位的概率密度分布.计算成果表明,运用随机微分方程进行水库的调洪演算,有利于正确分析水库调洪的随机过程和进一步开展水库泄洪风险分析. 相似文献
16.
17.
复杂巨型滑坡形成机制三维离散元模拟分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
滑坡位于金沙江下游某拟建的大型水电站库区左岸,距坝址较近,总体积约为2 560万m3,属特大型滑坡,其稳定与否将直接威胁到大坝安全和水库正常运营。由于滑坡成因复杂,对其进行合理评价和科学预测尚有困难。为此,结合野外详细勘查资料的分析,对其形成机制进行了定性分析,认为主要以滑移-弯曲型为主,局部可能存在滑移-拉裂或蠕滑-拉裂变形。在此基础上,运用三维离散元数值模拟分析方法,再现了其变形破坏演化过程,进一步证实了其滑移-弯曲型变形破坏机制,很好地解释了主滑带低于现今河床、主滑体南侧边界比较模糊等原因,从而为其发展演化趋势、稳定性和危害性评价提供了有力依据。 相似文献
18.
Xiaoling Wang Wenlong Chen Zhengyin Zhou Yushan Zhu Cheng Wang Zhen Liu 《Natural Hazards》2017,86(3):1147-1174
Dense buildings are the major factor affecting urban flood routing. Currently, the study of urban dam-break flood routing primarily focuses on a simplified terrain model and 2D shallow water equations, which ignore the effects of dense urban buildings. Furthermore, the complex interactions between the dam-break wave and the wall surfaces of buildings are not reflected in the results. To tackle these problems, three-dimensional flood routing with a high-precision digital model of an urban area is studied in this paper. Firstly, the vector data of various land types is extracted from a remote sensing image, and the NURBS algorithm based on the TIN algorithm is introduced to construct a three-dimensional terrain model. Coupled with the vector data and the terrain model, a three-dimensional digital model of the urban area is established. Next, a three-dimensional \(k{-}\varepsilon\) turbulence model is proposed for the flood routing simulation. A polyhedral grid with a second-order accuracy and a discrete format is used to divide the digital model of the urban area, and the governing equations are solved using the PISO algorithm. Finally, the superiority of the 3D mathematical model and the computational efficiency of the polyhedral mesh model are validated according to the urban flood routing experiments of Testa and Soares-Frazão. An urban reservoir, located in SZ City, China, is modelled to show that a dam-break flood in an urban area exhibits significant three-dimensional characteristics. Moreover, due to the surrounding buildings, the flood exhibits complex three-dimensional turbulence phenomena, including collision, reflection and vortices. 相似文献
19.
为定量评估分蓄洪工程启用过程中蓄滞洪区的洪水风险等级,创建了基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型。该模型采用二维水动力学模块计算蓄滞洪区的洪水演进过程,利用洪水中人体跌倒失稳公式及洪水中房屋、农作物损失的计算关系式,评估各类受淹对象的洪水风险等级。然后将二维水动力学模块计算的洪水要素与两个物理模型试验值进行对比,表明二维水动力学模块的计算精度良好。最后计算了荆江分洪工程启用时分洪区内洪水的演进过程,并评估洪灾中群众的危险等级和财产损失。计算结果表明:洪水演进至140 h时,蓄滞洪区群众、房屋、水稻和棉花的平均损失率分别为85%、59%、63%和72%。模型中提出的采用基于受淹对象失稳机制的洪水风险分析方法,比以往经验水深法划分风险等级的适用性更好,不仅能为洪水风险管理及蓄滞洪区启用标准制定提供参考,也能推广应用于溃坝或堰塞湖溃决等极端洪水风险评估。 相似文献
20.
Jiaxu Jin Chenguang Song Bing Liang Yijun Chen Menglei Su 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(18):654
Earthquake is one of the most important factors that leads to the liquefaction of tailings and to the instability of the tailings reservoir. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the instability mechanism of the tailings reservoir under seismic load. In this study, the dynamic characteristics of the tailings reservoir under seismic load were investigated by carrying out a model test on the dynamic characteristics of the tailings dam. A model test of tailings dam failure and the dynamic characteristics model of the tailings reservoir under seismic load were established. Additionally, the dynamic characteristics under a seismic load were investigated. Additionally, the correctness of the dynamic characteristics model of the tailings reservoir was verified by numerical calculation. Researches show that with the increase in input peak acceleration, pore water pressure, earth pressure, and the horizontal and vertical displacements of the dam monitoring points are gradually increased. However, the acceleration amplification factor shows a declining trend. In the process of increasing the input peak acceleration, the saturation line and the lifting speed increases gradually. There is no obvious slip surface in the failure of the tailings dam, and the overall sliding is shown by the failure mode. The tailings reach each of the downstream sections. The mud height increases to the peak value, and then decreases gradually until stagnation. The results of this study can provide the theoretical basis and reference values for the stability analysis of a tailings reservoir under a seismic load, and the results are of great significance for controlling the risk factors in the operation of tailings reservoir, reducing the risk of tailings production safety, preventing the occurrence of tailing pond accidents, protecting the property safety of the downstream residents and enterprises, maintaining social stability around the reservoir area and creating a good ecological environment. 相似文献