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1.
Extreme weather events present environmental and social challenges across the Eurasian steppe. In Mongolia much attention is given to drought and dzud (severe winter conditions) impact on rural livelihoods, landscapes and governance. A link between the two events, fostered by international and state agencies, speculates that drought leads to dzud; this has become the widely accepted doctrine. However, the relationship between the two events is assumed rather than analysed. Whilst there may be natural links between climate events, causality is more difficult to establish yet often claimed post-event. This paper stresses Mongolia’s destructive dzuds of 1999–2001 and 2009–2010 in examining drought frequency before dzud events. Findings question the hazard connection as just 3 of 32 examined dzud events were preceded by drought. Investigation did not document a relationship between the disasters; linkages between extreme events were implied rather than established. The human role in disaster also needs to be assessed as preparation, and response are key factors for mitigation. Study results identified a lack of causality between the disasters, suggesting more assiduous investigation of hazards is needed in Mongolia. This can clarify causal factors, identify risk and improve disaster mitigation strategies in Mongolia. 相似文献
2.
Based on the development of railways in desert areas of China, the types, characteristics, schemes, measures and technical systems of wind-sand disaster prevention and control were systematically analyzed in this paper. In view of the regional characteristics of sandy areas and the genres of railway sand damage in China, the results achieved and problems faced of wind-sand hazard and prevention technology in quicksand surface, plateau cold region and Gobi gale area were discussed as a case study. Combined with the expanding trend of railways in desert zone in China at present, starting from the theoretical research and the practice of sand control in engineering, it was proposed that the railway sand harm of complicated terrain and special environment is the key research direction in the field of wind-sand engineering in the future, which is also the crucial and difficult point in the protection and control of railway sand hazard in sandy zones. 相似文献
3.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
4.
南方山地丘陵区地域跨度大,地质灾害孕灾背景复杂、成灾模式多样,是我国地质灾害高易发区。针对南方山地丘陵区地质灾害潜在风险高的问题,在中国地质调查局“南方山地丘陵区地质灾害调查工程”实施进展基础上,对南方山地丘陵区地质灾害控灾的气候动力特征及地质构造背景进行了系统分析,对典型地质灾害成灾模式和多尺度风险调查评价示范性成果进行了总结,揭示了东南沿海地区典型台风地质灾害、南方岩溶塌陷、西南高寒山区冰碛土泥石流及川西高原区火后泥石流形成机理与物源侵蚀机制。在此基础上,开展了南方山地丘陵区基于县域、重点城镇及典型灾害点的多尺度地质灾害风险评价应用示范,相关成果在西南重大工程规划选线及县城搬迁选址中得到应用。 相似文献
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6.
我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。 相似文献
7.
Jin Ju-Liang Fu Juan Wei Yi-Ming Jiang Shang-Ming Zhou Yu-Liang Liu Li Wang You-Zhen Wu Cheng-Guo 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):155-178
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.
相似文献8.
This exploratory study contributes to our knowledge about the relationships between interpersonal communication sources and risk perception regarding natural hazards. Survey data (N?=?186) from a small village in northwest China was used, and the correlations between eight types of interpersonal communication sources related to disaster risk reduction and the perceived severity and perceived likelihood of occurrence of eight types of natural hazards were explored. Past studies have suggested that interpersonal communication sources are more likely to influence individuals in their perceived severity of natural hazards than in their perceived likelihood of occurrence. The results of this study moderately corroborate this finding. The results indicated that different sources have different relationships to risk perception, as positive correlations were found between obtaining information via certain trained science professionals (science teachers, emergency responders, scientific experts) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions, while negative relationships were found between obtaining information via certain personal contacts (other villagers and relatives and friends) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions. However, the strength of these relationships was weak (??0.197?≥?r?≤? 0.245). Age showed statically significant correlations with the perceived severity of most of the natural hazards. Studies with more representative samples and controls for theoretical factors are needed to better understand how interpersonal communication sources affect individuals' natural hazard risk perceptions. 相似文献
9.
Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Ju-Liang Jin Juan Fu Yi-Ming Wei Shang-Ming Jiang Yu-Liang Zhou Li Liu You-Zhen Wang Cheng-Guo Wu 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):155-178
Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support. 相似文献
10.
开展大比例尺高精度的地质灾害评价是当前地质灾害调查所亟需的。根据资料和实地调查,本文以广东汕尾地区陆河县为研究区,从现状地质灾害和潜在地质灾害2个方面选取个数密度、面积密度、体积密度、坡度、断裂密度、岩土体类型、降雨量和人类工程活动8个指标,在ArcGIS软件的支持下,应用地质灾害综合危险性指数法对陆河县的地质灾害及不稳定斜坡的易发性进行区划,评价结果分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区3级,分区面积为低>高>中,灾害密度为高>中>低,研究所得可作为区域地质灾害风险管理的基础之一。 相似文献
11.
Characteristics of dust particles from the desert/Gobi area of northwestern China during dust-storm periods 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
The total suspended particle (TSP) samples were collected from seven urban cities in Gansu province in the periods of dust storms from January to April 2001. These dust events were characterized by about 1-3 days duration, NNW-, NW-, WNW-dominant wind directions, ~15.0 m/s 1-h average wind speeds and ~62.53 mg/m3 TSP levels. In the January-April period, the dust events in northwestern China were mainly induced by the high pressures over Xinjiang or over northwestern Mongolia and by depressions over eastern Asia. TSP samples were analyzed using a JSM-5600LV scanning electron microscope (SEM) equipped with a KEVEX EDX and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry for examining morphologies and major components. In addition, soil samples, collected from 11different sites, were analyzed using X-ray fluorescence for their chemical components. The morphology of the dust particles showed a wide variety of types such as spherical shapes, irregular and sharp-edged shapes, etc., and contained crustal element oxides such as SiO2, Al2O3, Fe2O3, CaO, MgO, K2O, Na2O, and TiO2, similar to the chemical components in the desert/Gobi areas. However, the concentrations of elements such as Cu, V, Pb, Zn and As were wider and higher than those in the soils of the desert/Gobi areas, and their ratios for TSP/desert and TSP/Gobi were about 3~14. The levels of these elements in the urban cities may not be influenced by the dust storms in the desert/Gobi areas, but may be contributed to by anthropogenic sources such as industrial tailings and some polluted materials. 相似文献
12.
一条值得重视的跨国境成矿带--南戈壁-东乌旗铜多金属成矿带 总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20
南戈壁—东乌旗铜多金属成矿带位于中蒙边境东段 ,呈北东东—北东向展布 ,处于古亚洲成矿域北部、古生代蒙古弧形构造带的东段。成矿带内主要出露古生界海相、浅海相碎屑岩、中基性火山岩夹碳酸盐岩建造及晚古生代中酸性 -酸性岩体。在成矿带西段蒙古南戈壁 ,已发现形成于晚古生代的察干苏布尔加和欧玉陶勒盖大型斑岩型铜金钼矿床。通过分析对比认为 ,该成矿带东段中国二连—东乌旗与西段蒙古南戈壁区域成矿地质背景相近 ,铜多金属具有成矿远景。近年 1∶2 0万区域化探普查和异常查证成果进一步表明二连—东乌旗地区含铜多金属矿具有找矿潜力。 相似文献
13.
蒙古国的地质构造史漫长而复杂,华力西运动阶段的南海北陆和中生代的陆内坳陷或断陷格局为煤炭聚集提供了良好条件。含煤面积巨大,有15个含煤盆地或含煤区。冶金煤主要分布在西部和南部地区。现阶段蒙古国主要有4个对华煤炭出口口岸。除此之外还有一个潜在煤炭出口口岸-阿尔山口岸。其中约95%的出口量来自于中部的甘其毛道和策克口岸。基于中国优质冶金煤"近期无忧,远期不足"和东北地区煤炭资源枯竭、开采难度加大的状况,综合分析资源品质、基础设施和市场等条件,认为南戈壁盆地、东戈壁盆地有较好的开发前景。西部地区受制于市场狭小、基础设施落后等因素,在未来的一段时间内前景不乐观。 相似文献
14.
Active faulting and natural hazards in Armenia, eastern Turkey and northwestern Iran 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Arkady S. Karakhanian Vladimir G. Trifonov Herve Philip Ara Avagyan Khaled Hessami Farshad Jamali M. Salih Bayraktutan H. Bagdassarian S. Arakelian V. Davtian A. Adilkhanyan 《Tectonophysics》2004,380(3-4):189-219
Active fault zones of Armenia, SE Turkey and NW Iran present a diverse set of interrelated natural hazards. Three regional case studies in this cross-border zone are examined to show how earthquakes interact with other hazards to increase the risk of natural disaster. In northern Armenia, a combination of several natural and man-made phenomena (earthquakes, landslides and unstable dams with toxic wastes) along the Pambak-Sevan-Sunik fault (PSSF) zone lowers from 0.4 to 0.2–0.3g the maximum permissible level (MPL) of seismic hazard that may induce disastrous destruction and loss of life in the adjacent Vanadzor depression.
In the Ararat depression, a large active fault-bounded pull-apart basin at the junction of borders of Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, an earthquake in 1840 was accompanied by an eruption of Ararat Volcano, lahars, landslides, floods, soil subsidence and liquefaction. The case study demonstrates that natural hazards that are secondary with respect to earthquakes may considerably increase the damage and the casualties and increase the risk associated with the seismic impact.
The North Tabriz–Gailatu fault system poses a high seismic hazard to the border areas of NW Iran, eastern Turkey, Nakhichevan (Azerbaijan) and southern Armenia. Right-lateral strike–slip motions along the North Tabriz fault have given rise to strong earthquakes, which threaten the city of Tabriz with its population of 1.2 million.
The examples illustrate how the concentration of natural hazards in active fault zones increases the risk associated with strong earthquakes in Armenia, eastern Turkey and NW Iran. This generally occurs across the junctions of international borders. Hence, the transboundary character of active faults requires transboundary cooperation in the study and mitigation of the natural risk. 相似文献
15.
针对三峡水利枢纽工程建成蓄水后,涉水新型城镇建设面临的地质灾害及其风险定量评价难问题,在地质灾害精细化调查基础上,以重庆市万州区大周镇集镇区为例,通过分析计算地质灾害的发育特征、稳定性和危害性,构建了基于斜坡单元的危险性评价和基于危险源分析的承灾体易损性评价的城镇尺度地质灾害风险评价框架。定量计算不同重现期降雨极值情景下的斜坡稳定性和不同灾害强度下承灾体易损性,实现了库区集镇区地质灾害风险评价; 基于社会经济发展和地质灾害风险现状分析,提出了大周镇集镇区国土空间规划建议。地质灾害风险评价结果对制定地方发展规划具有指导意义,评价方法对同类沿江城镇地质灾害风险评价具有参考价值。 相似文献
16.
全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次. 相似文献
17.
The biophysical characteristics of a place not only bring variations in natural hazards, but also influence people??s associated perception and response to the hazard. Although these influences are noted in the literature, their relationship has been less explored for planning hazard mitigation and disaster response. This paper evaluates the role of place in a hazardscape by using a case study of the Wellington Region, New Zealand. The study explores the differences between the physical and perceived susceptibility to natural hazards and how this affects people??s response to a hazard. The analysis is based on a questionnaire survey and interviews conducted with local people. It finds that disparities between physical and perceived hazard susceptibility engender different motivations and types of response. A close alignment of the two produces a high response rate for earthquakes and droughts, whereas a significant divergence leads to a poor response as observed for volcanic ash fall. The relationship, however, is not linear, as indicated by the poor response even to such well-perceived hazards as tsunami and bushfire. The reasons behind this uneven response can be related back to place characteristics, such as the nature of hazard susceptibility, as well as factors such as fatalism or blasé effect. It is concluded that mapping physical and perceived susceptibility to hazards over space, understanding their relationship and ultimately narrowing the gap between perception and reality can contribute to effective hazard management at a place. 相似文献
18.
Philipp Schmidt-Thom Stefan Greiving Hilkka Kallio Mark Fleischhauer Jaana Jarva 《Quaternary International》2006,150(1):103
Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding. 相似文献
19.
西南地区发育有我国近30%的地质灾害隐患点,是我国地质灾害成因最复杂、数量最多、灾情最严重的地区之一,为更好地了解西南地区地质灾害研究历史和防灾减灾工作,本文在系统梳理西南地区地质灾害发育分布规律及危害特征现状基础上,简要回顾了二十世纪以来西南地区地质灾害研究的主要历程,并分三个主要阶段对所取得的进展和成效进行了总结。在此基础上,对未来西南地区地质灾害的主要研究趋势进行了展望,提出了西南地区地质灾害研究应重点关注高山极高山区高位远程地质灾害识别技术、特大地质灾害链形成机理与风险防控、基于地质灾害孕灾背景大数据智能挖掘的风险动态评价等,可供西南地区地质灾害研究与防治参考。 相似文献
20.
Wu Cheng-Guo Wei Yi-Ming Jin Ju-Liang Huang Qiang Zhou Yu-Liang Liu Li 《Natural Hazards》2014,75(2):179-197
The Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River, is one of the most serious reaches suffering from ice flood disaster in China. Firstly, according to its characteristics of ice condition evolution and ice disaster, the concept of ice disaster risk of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was defined, the risk factors of ice disaster were discussed, and the theory and method of “risk identification–risk estimation–risk assessment–risk management” for the ice disaster risk analysis of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was proposed. Then, the comprehensive evaluation model of ice disaster risk was established using the projection pursuit, fuzzy clustering and accelerating genetic algorithm method. Finally, the ice disaster risk grade was formulated, and the ice disaster risk of 1991–2010 for the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach was evaluated in this paper. The results show that the application results were consistent with the practical characteristics of water regime, meteorological and ice condition, revealing the rationality of the risk evaluation model. This study aims at enriching and developing the theory and method for the ice disaster risk analysis and providing scientific decision basis for the ice-prevention preparedness of Ningxia–Inner Mongolia Reach, in the upper Yellow River.
相似文献