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1.
We present further steps in our analysis of the early anthropogenic hypothesis (Ruddiman, Clim Change 61:261–293, 2003) that increased levels of greenhouse gases in the current interglacial, compared to lower levels in previous interglacials, were initiated by early agricultural activities, and that these increases caused a warming of climate long before the industrial era (～1750). These steps include updating observations of greenhouse gas and climate trends from earlier interglacials, reviewing recent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture, and describing a simulation by a climate model with a dynamic ocean forced by the low levels of greenhouse gases typical of previous interglacials in order to gauge the magnitude of the climate change for an inferred (natural) low greenhouse gas level relative to a high present day level. We conduct two time slice (equilibrium) simulations using present day orbital forcing and two levels of greenhouse gas forcing: the estimated low (natural) levels of previous interglacials, and the high levels of the present (control). By comparing the former to the latter, we estimate how much colder the climate would be without the combined greenhouse gas forcing of the early agriculture era (inferred from differences between this interglacial and previous interglacials) and the industrial era (the period since ～1750). With the low greenhouse gas levels, the global average surface temperature is 2.7 K lower than present day—ranging from ～2 K lower in the tropics to 4–8 K lower in polar regions. These changes are large, and larger than those reported in a pre-industrial (～1750) simulation with this model, because the imposed low greenhouse gas levels (CH4 = 450 ppb, CO2 = 240 ppm) are lower than both pre-industrial (CH4 = 760 ppb, CO2 = 280 ppm) and modern control (CH4 = 1,714 ppb, CO2 = 355 ppm) values. The area of year-round snowcover is larger, as found in our previous simulations and some other modeling studies, indicating that a state of incipient glaciation would exist given the current configuration of earth’s orbit (reduced insolation in northern hemisphere summer) and the imposed low levels of greenhouse gases. We include comparisons of these snowcover maps with known locations of earlier glacial inception and with locations of twentieth century glaciers and ice caps. In two earlier studies, we used climate models consisting of atmosphere, land surface, and a shallow mixed-layer ocean (Ruddiman et al., Quat Sci Rev 25:1–10, 2005; Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008). Here, we replaced the mixed-layer ocean with a complete dynamic ocean. While the simulated climate of the atmosphere and the surface with this improved model configuration is similar to our earlier results (Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008), the added information from the full dynamical ocean is of particular interest. The global and vertically-averaged ocean temperature is 1.25 K lower, the area of sea ice is larger, and there is less upwelling in the Southern Ocean. From these results, we infer that natural ocean feedbacks could have amplified the greenhouse gas changes initiated by early agriculture and possibly account for an additional increment of CO2 increase beyond that attributed directly to early agricultural, as proposed by Ruddiman (Rev Geophys 45:RG4001, 2007). However, a full test of the early anthropogenic hypothesis will require additional observations and simulations with models that include ocean and land carbon cycles and other refinements elaborated herein.  相似文献   

2.
Accurate replication of the processes associated with the energetics of the tropical ocean is necessary if coupled GCMs are to simulate the physics of ENSO correctly, including the transfer of energy from the winds to the ocean thermocline and energy dissipation during the ENSO cycle. Here, we analyze ocean energetics in coupled GCMs in terms of two integral parameters describing net energy loss in the system using the approach recently proposed by Brown and Fedorov (J Clim 23:1563?C1580, 2010a) and Fedorov (J Clim 20:1108?C1117, 2007). These parameters are (1) the efficiency ?? of the conversion of wind power into the buoyancy power that controls the rate of change of the available potential energy (APE) in the ocean and (2) the e-folding rate ?? that characterizes the damping of APE by turbulent diffusion and other processes. Estimating these two parameters for coupled models reveals potential deficiencies (and large differences) in how state-of-the-art coupled GCMs reproduce the ocean energetics as compared to ocean-only models and data assimilating models. The majority of the coupled models we analyzed show a lower efficiency (values of ?? in the range of 10?C50% versus 50?C60% for ocean-only simulations or reanalysis) and a relatively strong energy damping (values of ???1 in the range 0.4?C1?years versus 0.9?C1.2?years). These differences in the model energetics appear to reflect differences in the simulated thermal structure of the tropical ocean, the structure of ocean equatorial currents, and deficiencies in the way coupled models simulate ENSO.  相似文献   

3.
On tropospheric adjustment to forcing and climate feedbacks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Motivated by findings that major components of so-called cloud ??feedbacks?? are best understood as rapid responses to CO2 forcing (Gregory and Webb in J Clim 21:58?C71, 2008), the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative effects from forcing, and the subsequent responses to global surface temperature changes from all ??atmospheric feedbacks?? (water vapour, lapse rate, surface albedo, ??surface temperature?? and cloud) are examined in detail in a General Circulation Model. Two approaches are used: applying regressions to experiments as they approach equilibrium, and equilibrium experiments forced separately by CO2 and patterned sea surface temperature perturbations alone. Results are analysed using the partial radiative perturbation (??PRP??) technique. In common with Gregory and Webb (J Clim 21:58?C71, 2008) a strong positive addition to ??forcing?? is found in the short wave (SW) from clouds. There is little evidence, however, of significant global scale rapid responses from long wave (LW) cloud, nor from surface albedo, SW water vapour or ??surface temperature??. These responses may be well understood to first order as classical ??feedbacks????i.e. as a function of global mean temperature alone and linearly related to it. Linear regression provides some evidence of a small rapid negative response in the LW from water vapour, related largely to decreased relative humidity (RH), but the response here, too, is dwarfed by subsequent response to warming. The large rapid SW cloud response is related to cloud fraction changes??and not optical properties??resulting from small cloud decreases ranging from the tropical mid troposphere to the mid latitude lower troposphere, in turn associated with decreased lower tropospheric RH. These regions correspond with levels of enhanced heating rates and increased temperatures from the CO2 increase. The pattern of SW cloud fraction response to SST changes differs quite markedly to this, with large positive radiation responses originating in the upper troposphere, positive contributions in the lowest levels and patterns of positive/negative contributions in mid latitude low levels. Overall SW cloud feedback was diagnosed as negative, due to the substantial negative SW feedback in cloud optical properties more than offsetting these. This study therefore suggests the rapid response to CO2 forcing is (apart from a possible small negative response from LW water vapour) essentially confined to cloud fraction changes affecting SW radiation, and further that significant feedbacks with temperature occur in all cloud components (including this one), and indeed in all other classically understood ??feedbacks??.  相似文献   

4.
We describe the evolutionary response of northern and southern hemisphere summer monsoons to orbital forcing over the past 280,000 years using a fully coupled general circulation ocean-atmosphere model in which the orbital forcing is accelerated by a factor of 100. We find a strong and positive response of northern (southern) summer monsoon precipitation to northern (southern) summer insolation forcing. On average, July (January) precipitation maxima and JJA (DJF) precipitation maxima have high coherence and are approximately in phase with June (December) insolation maxima, implying an average lag between forcing and response of about 30° of phase at the precession period. The average lag increases to over 40° for 4-month precipitation averages, JJAS (DJFM). The phase varies from region to region. The average JJA (DJF) land temperature maxima also lag the June orbital forcing maxima by about 30° of phase, whereas ocean temperature maxima exhibit a lag of about 60° of phase at the precession period. Using generalized measures of the thermal and hydrologic processes that produce monsoons, we find that the summer monsoon precipitation indices for the six regions all fall within the phase limits of the process indices for the respective hemispheres. Selected observational studies from four of the six monsoon regions report approximate in-phase relations of summer monsoon proxies to summer insolation. However other observational studies report substantial phase lags of monsoon proxies and a strong component of forcing associated with glacial-age boundary conditions or other factors. An important next step will be to include glacial-age boundary condition forcing in long, transient paleoclimate simulations, along with orbital forcing.  相似文献   

5.
As a first qualitative assessment tool, LOVECLIM has been used to investigate the interactions between insolation, ice sheets and the East Asian Monsoon at the Marine Isotopic Stage 13 (MIS–13) in work by Yin et?al. (Clim Past 4:79–90, 2008, Clim Past 5:229–243, 2009). The results are in need of validation with a more sophisticated model, which is done in this work with the ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model. As in the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity, LOVECLIM, ARPEGE shows that the northern hemispheric high insolation in summer leads to strong MIS–13 monsoon precipitation. Data from the Chinese Loess Plateau indicate that MIS–13 was locally a warm and humid period (Guo et?al. in Clim Past 5:21–31, 2009; Yin and Guo in Chin Sci Bull 51(2):213–220, 2006). This is confirmed by these General Circulation Model (GCM) results, where the MIS–13 climate is found to be hotter and more humid both in the presence and absence of any added ice sheets. LOVECLIM found that the combined effects of the ice sheets and their accompanying SSTs contribute to more precipitation in eastern China, whilst in ARPEGE the impact is significant in northeastern China. Nonetheless the results of ARPEGE confirm the counter-intuitive results of LOVECLIM where ice sheets contribute to enhance monsoon precipitation. This happens through a topography induced wave propagating through Eurasia with an ascending branch over northeastern China. A feature which is also seen in LOVECLIM. The SST forcing in ARPEGE results in a strong zonal temperature gradient between the North Atlantic and east Eurasia, which in turn triggers an atmospheric gravity wave. This wave induces a blocking Okhotskian high, preventing the northwards penetration of the Meiyu monsoon front. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST is found through the factor separation method, yielding an increase in the Meiyu precipitation, though a reduction of the Changma precipitation. The synergism between the ice sheets and SST play a non-negligible role and should be taken into consideration in GCM studies. Preliminary fully coupled AOGCM results presented here further substantiate the finding of stronger MIS–13 monsoons and a reinforcement from ice sheets. This work increases our understanding of the signals found in the paleo-observations and the dynamics of the complex East Asian Summer Monsoon.  相似文献   

6.
Glacial geologic studies in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes (40–54°S) indicate renewed glacial activity in southern South America (Patagonia) and New Zealand’s (NZ) South Island starting at ～7 kyr, the so-called neoglaciation. Available data indicate that neoglacial advances in these regions occurred during a rising trend in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, lower-than-present but increasing summer insolation and seasonality contrasts. In this paper we examine the climatological context in which neoglaciations occurred through analysis of the complete Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP2) database of simulations at 6 kyr for the SH. We observe that the amplitude of the annual insolation cycle in the SH did not change significantly at 6 kyr compared to the pre-industrial values, the largest difference occurring in autumn (MAM, negative anomalies) and spring (SON, positive anomalies). The simulated changes in temperatures over the SH respond to the insolation changes, with a 1–2 month delay over the oceans. This results in a reduced amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation over most continental regions, except over Patagonia and NZ, that show a slight increase. In contrast, large-scale circulation features, such as the low and upper level winds and the subtropical anticyclones show an amplified annual cycle, as a direct response to the increased/decreased insolation during the transitional seasons SON/MAM. In the annual mean, there is a small but consistent equatorward shift of the latitude of maximum wind speed of 1–3° over the entire SH, which results in a small increase of wind speed over the South Pacific and Atlantic Oceans north of ～50°S and a widespread decline south of 50°S. PMIP2 simulations for 6 kyr, indicate that in the annual mean, the SH mid-latitudes were colder, wetter and with stronger winds north of about 50°S. These conditions are consistent with the observed neoglacial advances in the region, as well as with terrestrial paleoclimate records from Patagonia that indicate cooling and a multi-millennial rising trend in Southern Westerly Wind intensity starting at ～7.8 kyr.  相似文献   

7.
The El Ni?o phenomenon is the Earth??s strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Ni?o is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Ni?o event. At present, the next El Ni?o will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23?C27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.  相似文献   

8.
The dynamics of a low-order coupled wind-driven ocean–atmosphere system is investigated with emphasis on its predictability properties. The low-order coupled deterministic system is composed of a baroclinic atmosphere for which 12 dominant dynamical modes are only retained (Charney and Straus in J Atmos Sci 37:1157–1176, 1980) and a wind-driven, quasi-geostrophic and reduced-gravity shallow ocean whose field is truncated to four dominant modes able to reproduce the large scale oceanic gyres (Pierini in J Phys Oceanogr 41:1585–1604, 2011). The two models are coupled through mechanical forcings only. The analysis of its dynamics reveals first that under aperiodic atmospheric forcings only dominant single gyres (clockwise or counterclockwise) appear, while for periodic atmospheric solutions the double gyres emerge. In the present model domain setting context, this feature is related to the level of truncation of the atmospheric fields, as indicated by a preliminary analysis of the impact of higher wavenumber (“synoptic” scale) modes on the development of oceanic gyres. In the latter case, double gyres appear in the presence of a chaotic atmosphere. Second the dynamical quantities characterizing the short-term predictability (Lyapunov exponents, Lyapunov dimension, Kolmogorov–Sinaï (KS) entropy) displays a complex dependence as a function of the key parameters of the system, namely the coupling strength and the external thermal forcing. In particular, the KS-entropy is increasing as a function of the coupling in most of the experiments, implying an increase of the rate of loss of information about the localization of the system on its attractor. Finally the dynamics of the error is explored and indicates, in particular, a rich variety of short term behaviors of the error in the atmosphere depending on the (relative) amplitude of the initial error affecting the ocean, from polynomial (at 2 + bt 3 + ct 4) up to exponential-like evolutions. These features are explained and analyzed in the light of the recent findings on error growth (Nicolis et al. in J Atmos Sci 66:766–778, 2009).  相似文献   

9.
Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions ??drivers??: population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III 2007). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723?C725, 2002). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production??or p×g??through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.  相似文献   

10.
The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6?ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6?ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6?ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.  相似文献   

11.
Yew-Kwang Ng 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):109-127
Recent discussion of climate change focuses on the trade-off between present and future consumption and hence correctly emphasizes the discount rate. Stern (2007) favours immediate and strong actions of environmental protection, but this has been questioned as the discount rate used is much lower than the market or commonly used rates. Focussed only on consumption trade-off, the use of these higher discount rates completely reverses the need for strong actions. However, an even more important problem has been largely neglected. This is the avoidance of catastrophes that may threaten the extinction of the human species. But ??we lack a usable economic framework for dealing with these kinds of ... extreme disasters?? (Weitzman, J Econ Lit 45(3):703?C724, 2007, p. 723). To analyse this, the comparison of marginal utility with total utility is needed. As happiness studies suggest a low ratio of marginal to total utility and as scientific and technological advances (especially in brain stimulation and genetic engineering) may dramatically increase future welfare, immediate and actions stronger than proposed by Stern may be justified despite high discount rates on future consumption, as discount rates on future utility/welfare should be much lower.  相似文献   

12.
Both the magnitude and timescale of climate change in response to anthropogenic forcing are important consideration in climate change decision making. Using a familiar, yet simple global energy balance model combined with a novel method for estimating the amount of gain in the global surface temperature response to radiative forcing associated with timescales in the range 100?C103?years we show that the introduction of large-scale circulation such as meridional overturning leads to the emergence of discrete gain?Ctimescale relationships in the dynamics of this model. This same feature is found in the response of both an intermediate complexity and two atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models run to equilibrium. As a result of this emergent property of climate models, it is possible to offer credible partitioning of the full equilibrium gain of these models, and hence their equilibrium climate sensitivity, between two discrete timescales; one decadal associated with near surface ocean heat equilibration; and one centennial associated with deep ocean heat equilibration. Timescales of approximately 20 and 700?years with a 60:40 partitioning of the equilibrium gain are found for the models analysed here. A re-analysis of the emulation results of 19 AOGCMs presented by Meinshausen et al. (Atmos Chem Phys Discuss 8:6153?C6272, 2008) indicates timescales of 20 and 580?years with an approximate 50:50 partition of the equilibrium gain between the two. This suggests near equal importance of both short and long timescales in determining equilibrium climate sensitivity.  相似文献   

13.
The orbital configuration at the end of the last interglacial, 115,000 years BP (115 ky BP), was such that the Northern Hemisphere seasonal contrast was decreased when compared to the last interglacial maximum, 126 ky BP. Climatic reconstructions argue for increased latitudinal surface temperature and salinity gradients in the North Atlantic at 115 ky BP compared to 126 ky BP. According to proxy measurements the high-latitude ocean freshening may be explained by enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection which would have then led to decreased deep convection activity in the northern seas. To evaluate such re-adjustments of the atmospheric circulation to the insolation forcing changes, we have explored the changes in atmospheric energy balance and transport with two AGCM experiments, one for each climate. We show that the northward increase in static heat transport at 115 ky BP to 126 ky BP constitutes a first order response to the changing insolation. It tends to equalise the heat balance of the atmosphere. Despite sea surface temperatures fixed (SSTs) to present-day this feature is strongly amplified by the air–sea heat flux exchanges. By comparing with OAGCM experiments for the same periods, we find that the simulated surface ocean heat flux responses to insolation forcing are similar whether the ocean is allowed to vary or not. The latent heat transport does not undergo the same changes as the dry static one. On an annual basis, it decreases over the high northern latitudes. This is the result of summer modification of moisture sources and transient activity. The latter appears to affect latent heat transport much more than the dry static one. The winter response, however, differs from the summer response which dominates the annual mean. There is an enhanced northward atmospheric moisture advection during winter at 115 ky BP, which is responsible for the freshening of high-latitude ocean during this season. This result seems to confirm the hypothesis inferred from marine data.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
The paper discusses the impact of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of various types of precipitation. A 146-year-long precipitation record from Kraków spanning the period 1863?C2008 was used alongside a calendar prepared by Nied?wied? (1981, 2009) describing circulation types covering the period 1873?C2008 and air masses and atmospheric fronts covering the period 1951?C2008 in southern Poland. The influence of atmospheric circulation on precipitation was measured using the frequency, conditional probability and average daily totals of precipitation. Circulation types, air masses and atmospheric fronts exerted influences on precipitation as a result of the seasonal variations of the thermal and moisture properties of air masses. The impact is best expressed by circulation types as these combine the aspect of cyclonicity/anticyclonicity with that of the direction of air advection, the two elements which determine the physical properties of the air. On average, liquid precipitation prevailed in all circulation types, except the Ea type in which snowfall dominated over liquid precipitation. Depending on the season, one of the three types of circulation, Wa, Wc and Bc, were shown to coincide with the greatest amount of liquid and thunderstorm precipitation. There was no single dominant circulation type for mixed precipitation or snowfall. In summer, the circulation types Nc, NEc, Cc and Bc were the most favourable to liquid and thunderstorm precipitation in terms of both probability and totals. In winter, snowfall was the most favoured by the Ec type. Frontal precipitation was twice as likely to occur as air mass precipitation, with the exception of snowfall which was predominantly an air mass type of precipitation in terms of probability, but its greatest totals were recorded on atmospheric fronts.  相似文献   

16.
We evaluate the claim by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009) that “surface temperature can be better described as a trend stationary process with a one-time permanent shock” than efforts by Kaufmann et al. (Clim Change 77:249–278, 2006) to model surface temperature as a time series that contains a stochastic trend that is imparted by the time series for radiative forcing. We test this claim by comparing the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock to the in-sample forecast generated by a cointegration/error correction model that is assumed to be stable over the 1870–2000 sample period. Results indicate that the in-sample forecast generated by the cointegration/error correction model is more accurate than the in-sample forecast generated by the trend stationary model with a one-time permanent shock. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations of the cointegration/error correction model generate time series for temperature that are consistent with the trend-stationary-with-a-break result generated by Gay et al. (Clim Change 94:333–349, 2009), while the time series for radiative forcing cannot be modeled as trend stationary with a one-time shock. Based on these results, we argue that modeling surface temperature as a time series that shares a stochastic trend with radiative forcing offers the possibility of greater insights regarding the potential causes of climate change and efforts to slow its progression.  相似文献   

17.
It has recently been suggested that the structure and strength of the meridional overturning circulation in the global ocean is governed by the input of mechanical energy to the system by winds and tides. However, it is not clear how this suggestion relates to the existence of multiple equilibria of the meridional overturning circulation, which depends on thermohaline feedbacks and is more consistent with a buoyancy-driven view of the circulation. Both theories have been illustrated by box models in the past (Stommel in Tellus 13:224–230, 1961; Gnanadesikan in Science 283:2077–2079, 1999). Here we incorporate these two theories into a single box model in an attempt to reconcile the roles of mechanical and buoyancy forcing in driving the meridional overturning circulation. The box model has two equilibrium solutions, one with sinking at high northern latitudes as in the present-day Atlantic, and one without. The circulation is mechanically driven, but the northern sinking can be thought of as a release valve which acts as a sink of potential energy when the surface water at high northern latitudes is dense enough to convect. While the source of energy comes from mechanical forcing, the presence or otherwise of multiple equilibria is therefore determined by thermohaline feedbacks. In some areas of parameter space an oscillation between the model’s two circulation regimes occurs, reminiscent of a bipolar seesaw.  相似文献   

18.
The Arrhenius expressions and the data plotted in Figure 2 of Rodriguez et al. 2008 give rate coefficients of approximately 2?×?10-8 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 at 255 K. Such values are approximately two orders of magnitude larger than expected from simple collision theory (Finlayson-Pitts and Pitts 1986). The rate coefficients reported at sub-ambient temperatures are substantially greater than the gas kinetic limit and are not physically plausible. The rate coefficients reported by Rodriguez et al. imply a long range attraction between the reactants which is not reasonable for reaction of neutral species such as chlorine atoms and unsaturated alcohols. We also note that the pre-exponential A factors (10-23-10-20) and activation energies (?15 kcal mol-1) are not physically plausible. We conclude that there are large systematic errors in the study by Rodriguez et al. (Atmos Chem 59:187–197, 2008).  相似文献   

19.
We use an early twentieth century (1908?C1958) atmospheric reanalysis, based on assimilation of surface and sea level pressure observations, to contrast atmospheric circulation during two periods of persistent drought in North America: 1932?C1939 (the ??Dust Bowl??) and 1948?C1957. Primary forcing for both droughts is believed to come from anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs): a warm Atlantic and a cool eastern tropical Pacific. For boreal winter (October?CMarch) in the 1950s, a stationary wave pattern originating from the tropical Pacific is present, with positive centers over the north Pacific and north Atlantic ocean basins and a negative center positioned over northwest North America and the tropical/subtropical Pacific. This wave train is largely absent for the 1930s drought; boreal winter height anomalies are organized much more zonally, with positive heights extending across northern North America. For boreal summer (April?CSeptember) during the 1930s, a strong upper level ridge is centered over the Great Plains; this feature is absent during the 1950s and appears to be linked to a weakening of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ). Subsidence anomalies are co-located over the centers of each drought: in the central Great Plains for the 1930s and in a band extending from the southwest to the southeastern United States for the 1950s. The location and intensity of this subsidence during the 1948?C1957 drought is a typical response to a cold eastern tropical Pacific, but for 1932?C1939 deviates in terms of the expected intensity, location, and spatial extent. Overall, circulation anomalies during the 1950s drought appear consistent with the expected response to the observed SST forcing. This is not the case for the 1930s, implying some other causal factor may be needed to explain the Dust Bowl drought anomalies. In addition to SST forcing, the 1930s were also characterized by massive alterations to the land surface, including regional-scale devegetation from crop failures and intensive wind erosion and dust storms. Incorporation of these land surface factors into a general circulation model greatly improves the simulation of precipitation and subsidence anomalies during this drought, relative to simulations with SST forcing alone. Even with additional forcing from the land surface, however, the model still has difficulty reproducing some of the other circulation anomalies, including weakening of the GPLLJ and strengthening of the upper level ridge during AMJJAS. This may be due to either weaknesses in the model or uncertainties in the boundary condition estimates. Still, analysis of the circulation anomalies supports the conclusion of an earlier paper (Cook et?al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:4997, 2009), demonstrating that land degradation factors are consistent with the anomalous nature of the Dust Bowl drought.  相似文献   

20.
Orbital forcing of the climate system is clearly shown in the Earths record of glacial–interglacial cycles, but the mechanism underlying this forcing is poorly understood. Traditional Milankovitch theory suggests that these cycles are driven by changes in high latitude summer insolation, yet this forcing is dominated by precession, and cannot account for the importance of obliquity in the Ice Age record. Here, we investigate an alternative forcing based on the latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG), which is dominated by both obliquity (in summer) and precession (in winter). The insolation gradient acts on the climate system through differential solar heating, which creates the Earths latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) that drives the atmospheric and ocean circulation. A new pollen-based reconstruction of the LTG during the Holocene is used to demonstrate that the LTG may be much more sensitive to changes in the LIG than previously thought. From this, it is shown how LIG forcing of the LTG may help explain the propagation of orbital signatures throughout the climate system, including the Monsoon, Arctic Oscillation and ocean circulation. These relationships are validated over the last (Eemian) Interglacial, which occurred under a different orbital configuration to the Holocene. We conclude that LIG forcing of the LTG explains many criticisms of classic Milankovitch theory, while being poorly represented in climate models.  相似文献   

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