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1.
The origin of Antarctic precipitation: a modelling approach   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The contribution of different moisture sources to Antarctic precipitation for present‐day and glacial conditions is estimated with the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Despite its low horizontal resolution (8°×10°), this model simulates reasonably well the broad features of the observed present‐day hydrological cycle. Simulated present‐day Antarctic precipitation is dominated throughout the year by moisture from a subtropical/midlatitude band (30°S−60°S). The moisture supplied to a given coastal area of Antarctica originates mostly in the adjacent oceanic basin; closer to the pole, other oceanic basins can also contribute significantly. Replacing the present‐day sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice cover in the GCM with those from the CLIMAP oceanic reconstruction for the last glacial maximum (LGM), greatly increases the simulated latitudinal temperature gradient, with the consequence of slightly enhancing the contribution of low latitude moisture to Antarctic precipitation. It also changes the seasonality of the different contributions and thus their budget, particularly in coastal regions. Because the nature of LGM tropical SSTs is still under debate, we performed an additional LGM simulation in which the tropical SSTs are reduced relative to those of CLIMAP. The resulting decrease in the latitudinal gradient brings the relative contributions to Antarctic precipitation more in line with those of the present‐day simulation.  相似文献   

2.
Climate model simulations available from the PMIP1, PMIP2 and CMIP (IPCC-AR4) intercomparison projects for past and future climate change simulations are examined in terms of polar temperature changes in comparison to global temperature changes and with respect to pre-industrial reference simulations. For the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago), the models are forced by changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The MH PMIP1 atmosphere-only simulations conducted with sea surface temperatures fixed to modern conditions show no MH consistent response for the poles, whereas the new PMIP2 coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models systematically simulate a significant MH warming both for Greenland (but smaller than ice-core based estimates) and Antarctica (consistent with the range of ice-core based range). In both PMIP1 and PMIP2, the MH annual mean changes in global temperature are negligible, consistent with the MH orbital forcing. The simulated last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) to pre-industrial change in global mean temperature ranges between 3 and 7°C in PMIP1 and PMIP2 model runs, similar to the range of temperature change expected from a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP simulations. Both LGM and future climate simulations are associated with a polar amplification of climate change. The range of glacial polar amplification in Greenland is strongly dependent on the ice sheet elevation changes prescribed to the climate models. All PMIP2 simulations systematically underestimate the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Greenland temperature change, while some of the simulations do capture the reconstructed glacial–interglacial Antarctic temperature change. Uncertainties in the prescribed central ice cap elevation cannot account for the temperature change underestimation by climate models. The variety of climate model sensitivities enables the exploration of the relative changes in polar temperature with respect to changes in global temperatures. Simulated changes of polar temperatures are strongly related to changes in simulated global temperatures for both future and LGM climates, confirming that ice-core-based reconstructions provide quantitative insights on global climate changes. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

3.
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4.
Global warming simulations are performed with a coupled climate model of reduced complexity to investigate global warming–marine carbon cycle feedbacks. The model is forced by emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse agents from scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by CO2 stabilization profiles. The uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the ocean is reduced between 7 to 10% by year 2100 compared to simulations without global warming. The reduction is of similar size in the Southern Ocean and in low‐latitude regions (32.5°S‐32.5°N) until 2100, whereas low‐latitude regions dominate on longer time scales. In the North Atlantic the CO2 uptake is enhanced, unless the Atlantic thermohaline circulation completely collapses. At high latitudes, biologically mediated changes enhance ocean CO2 uptake, whereas in low‐latitude regions the situation is reversed. Different implementations of the marine biosphere yield a range of 5 to 16% for the total reduction in oceanic CO2 uptake until year 2100. Modeled oceanic O2 inventories are significantly reduced in global warming simulations. This suggests that the terrestrial carbon sink deduced from atmospheric O2/N2 observations is potentially overestimated if the oceanic loss of O2 to the atmosphere is not considered.  相似文献   

5.
The recent discovery of an anomalous enrichment in 17O isotope in atmospheric sulfate has opened a new way to investigate the oxidation pathways of sulfur in the atmosphere. From laboratory investigations, it has been suggested that the wet oxidation of sulfur in rain droplets was responsible for the excess 17O. In order to confirm this theory, sulfur and oxygen isotope ratios of different primary sulfates produced during fossil fuel combustion have been investigated and are reported. None of these samples exhibits any anomalous oxygen or sulfur isotopic content, as compared to urban sulfate aerosols. These results, in agreement with the laboratory investigations, reinforce the idea of an aqueous origin for the oxygen-17 anomaly found in tropospheric sulfates.  相似文献   

6.
 The LMDz variable grid GCM was used to simulate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ky Bp.) climate of Greenland and Antarctica at a spatial resolution of about 100 km.The high spatial resolution allows to investigate the spatial variability of surface climate change signals, and thus to address the question whether the sparse ice core data can be viewed as representative for the regional scale climate change. This study addresses primarily surface climate parameters because these can be checked against the, limited, ice core record. The changes are generally stronger for Greenland than for Antarctica, as the imposed changes of the forcing boundary conditions (e.g., sea surface temperatures) are more important in the vicinity of Greenland. Over Greenland, and to a limited extent also in Antarctica, the climate shows stronger changes in winter than in summer. The model suggests that the linear relationship between the surface temperature and inversion strength is modified during the LGM. The temperature dependency of the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere alone cannot explain the strong reduction in snowfall over central Greenland; atmospheric circulation changes also play a crucial role. Changes in the high frequency variability of snowfall, atmospheric pressure and temperature are investigated and possible consequences for the interpretation of ice core records are discussed. Using an objective cyclone tracking scheme, the importance of changes of the atmospheric dynamics off the coasts of the ice sheets, especially for the high frequency variability of surface climate parameters, is illustrated. The importance of the choice of the LGM ice sheet topography is illustrated for Greenland, where two different topographies have been used, yielding results that differ quite strongly in certain nontrivial respects. This means that the paleo-topography is a significant source of uncertainty for the modelled paleoclimate. The sensitivity of the Greenland LGM climate to the prescribed sea surface conditions is examined by using two different LGM North Atlantic data sets. Received: 23 October 1997 / Accepted: 17 March 1998  相似文献   

7.
We have studied the distribution of 327 clay mineral particles retrieved from four Antaretic ice smaples corresponding to present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. Illite, chlorite, smectite and kaolinite were identified in all samples. Focusing on kaolinite, because of its use as a possible tracer of low latitude soils, we find a significantly smaller amount for LGM samples while the dust concentration in snow during the LGM was about 30 times higher than for present climate conditions. This can be interpreted as change in the contribution of the Australian source with climate.A second approach was based on the modeling of the desert dust cycle using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under both present-day and ice age conditions. Unlike mineralogical results, the model suggests the prevalence of the Australian dust source in the deposits over East Antarctica under both present-day and LGM climate conditions. However the model fails to reproduce the strong increase in dust deposits during the LGM. This discrepancy could be partly due to the lack of a higher latitude dust source in the model.The stronger dust input recorded in ice cores for the LGM could be related to an additional active high latitude source (possibly close to South America) overlapping the atmospheric background coming from low latitude areas.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Meteorological and glaciological analyses are integrated to examine the precipitation trends during the last three decades over the ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland. For Antarctica, the best data source is provided by glaciologically-measured trends of snow accumulation, and for limited sectors of East Antarctica consistency with precipitation amounts calculated from the atmospheric water balance equation is obtained. For Greenland, precipitation rates parameterized from atmospheric analyses yield the only comprehensive depiction. The precipitation rate over Antarctica appears to have increased by about 5% over a time period spanning the accumulation means for the 1955–65 to 1965–75 periods, while over Greenland it has decreased by about 15% since 1983 with a secondary increase over the southern part of the ice sheet starting in 1977. At the end of the 10-year overlapping period, the global sea-level impact of the precipitation changes over Antarctica dominates that for Greenland and yields a net ice-sheet precipitation contribution of roughly 0.02 mm yr–1. These changes are likely due to marked variations in the cyclonic forcing affecting the ice sheets, but are only weakly reflected in the temperature regime, consistent with the episodic nature of cyclonic precipitation. These conclusions are not founded on high quality data bases. The importance of such changes for understanding global sea-level variations argues for a modest research effort to collect simultaneous meteorological and glaciological observations in order to describe and understand the current precipitation variations over both ice sheets. Some suggestions are offered for steps that could be taken.With 8 Figures  相似文献   

9.
The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ18O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ18O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ18O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ18O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ18O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.  相似文献   

10.
The present work summarises the results of a 2‐year study of wet‐only sequential deposition in 2 rural areas (Alcan¯iz and Morella) located at different distances from a large coal‐fired power station. Precipitation chemistry was characterised by relatively high , Ca2+ and average concentrations. Sequential study of single precipitation events showed that concentrations of most of the ions studied decreased exponentially throughout single precipitation events, with a sharper decrease in concentrations at the beginning of the event. Usually, 40 to 80% of the wet‐only deposition of major ions occurred in the first 2 mm. pH measurements, ranging from 5.6 to 8.1, showed a decrease in the pH values throughout a precipitation event. Deposition levels of Ca2+ and accounted for the neutralisation of major acidic species in the precipitation events except in 5 rain episodes sampled at Morella. The sequential study of the evolution of the ratio during a single precipitation allowed us to identify potential acidic rainfall fractions after an initial volume of precipitation, after most of the Ca2+ in atmospheric particles had been scavenged. A higher neutralisation capacity was deduced for Alcan¯iz owing to the higher atmospheric levels of natural carbonates and .  相似文献   

11.
The development of the future atmospheric chemical composition is investigated with respect to NO y and O3 by means of the off‐line coupled dynamic‐chemical general circulation model ECHAM3/CHEM. Two time slice experiments have been performed for the years 1992 and 2015, which include changes in sea surface temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, emissions of CFCs, NO x and other species, i.e., the 2015 simulation accounts for changes in chemically relevant emissions and for a climate change and its impact on air chemistry. The 2015 simulation clearly shows a global increase in ozone except for large areas of the lower stratosphere, where no significant changes or even decreases in the ozone concentration are found. For a better understanding of the importance of (A) emissions like NO x and CFCs, (B) future changes of air temperature and water vapour concentration, and (C) other dynamical parameters, like precipitation and changes in the circulation, diabatic circulation, stratosphere‐troposphere‐exchange, the simulation of the future atmosphere has been performed stepwise. This method requires a climate‐chemistry model without interactive coupling of chemical species. Model results show that the direct effect of emissions (A) plays a major rôle for the composition of the future atmosphere, but they also clearly show that climate change (B and C) has a significant impact and strongly reduces the NO y and ozone concentration in the lower stratosphere.  相似文献   

12.
Many researchers have reported the widespread occurrence of excess 210 Po in the global atmosphere and suggested probable sources such as resuspension of top soils, stratospheric aerosols, sea spray of the surface micro‐layer, volcanic emission, and bio‐volatile 210Po species from the productive ocean. We have observed excess 210Po on aerosols in the coastal atmosphere of the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. On‐board measurements in the Chesapeake Bay atmosphere show that the increase of this excess 210Po is dependent upon wind speed. Simultaneously measured activity ratios of 7Be/210Pb and 210Pb/222Rn argue against either higher altitude air or continental soils as the source of this excess. We hypothesize that the excess 210Po originates mainly from surface waters either by the sea‐spray of the surface microlayer, or more likely, by gas exchange. We conclude gas exchange as the mechanism since the polonium excess increases linearly with wind speed over a threshold of 3 m s−1(mean) similar to other gases (i.e., CO2, SF6 , and DMS). In addition, higher 210Po excess with lower 222Rn is observed in on‐shore marine air at Lewes, DE. This suggests sea‐air exchange of volatile Po along with other bio‐volatile species (i.e., DMS, DMSe, and MMHg) in the coastal productive ocean during high wind speeds.  相似文献   

13.
This study compares the synoptic-dynamic relationship between two phases of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and winter precipitation isotopes at 73 sites across the contiguous USA. We use the spatial pattern of isotope slope—the rate of changes in precipitation isotope ratios with distance—to identify features in the seasonal precipitation isotope fields related to climatic patterns, PNA positive and PNA negative. Our results show relationships between zones of high isotope slopes and the spatial position of the polar jet stream and juxtaposition of air masses associated with the PNA pattern. During a positive PNA winter, zones of high isotope slope in the eastern USA shift southward. This change is coincident with a southward displacement of the polar jet stream in this region, which leads to a greater frequency of polar air masses and 18O-depleted isotope values of precipitation in the region. In the western USA, zones of high slope shift eastward during the positive PNA winter, associated with more frequent penetration of tropical air masses that bring 18O-enriched precipitation to the region. Differences in δ18O/temperature relationships between the PNA-positive and -negative winters and contrasting δ18O/temperature behaviors in the eastern and western USA provide support for the role of variation in moisture source and transport as a control on the isotopic patterns. These findings highlight the importance of synoptic climate driven by PNA pattern in determining the spatial patterns of precipitation isotopes and provide constraints on paleo-water isotope interpretation and modern isotope hydrological processes.  相似文献   

14.
Long‐range transport of anthropogenic and biogenic CO2 to a remote site in the Arctic is studied. A limited area, off‐line, Eulerian atmospheric transport model is used, and the results are compared to the observed CO2 concentration at the "Ny‐Alesund International Arctic Research and Monitoring Facility". Inventories of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and estimates of biogenic CO2 emissions are used to investigate the respective impact of these emissions on Arctic CO2 variations during 4 winter months. A direct comparison of the modelled and observed concentrations reveals remarkably good timing in the modelled variations as compared to the observed variations for most of the time. The correlation of observed versus modelled CO2 concentration is significant at the 95% confidence level. The biogenic and the anthropogenic CO2 emissions are shown to have approximately equal influence on Arctic CO2 variations during winter. Europe is found to be the dominant source of anthropogenic CO2 at the monitoring station, while Siberia and Northern America have little influence on Arctic CO2, during the months studied. These results contradict Engardt and Holmén whose results indicate that the lower‐Ob region in western Siberia has a large impact on Arctic CO2.  相似文献   

15.
Although the isotopic composition of precipitation is widely used in global climate change studies, use of water vapour isotopes is considerably more limited. Here we present the results from 9 yr of atmospheric vapour measurements in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a site in Israel. The measurements show a strong mean seasonal cycle of about 4‰ in 18O (peaking around July). This seasonality could not be adequately explained by changes in surface interactions or in air mass trajectories, as usually invoked for variations in local precipitation. We could explain this cycle only as a combination of three components: (1) rainout effects; (2) temperature and relative humidity control of the initial vapour and (3) seasonal variations in the vertical mixing across the top of the planetary boundary layer. This last component is emphasized in the current study, and it was shown to be a significant factor in the seasonal cycle features. The measurements were also compared with an isotope-enabled GCM (CAM2) run, which exhibited a markedly different seasonal cycle. Such comparisons with vapour isotopes data could help in constraining models better.  相似文献   

16.
The analyses of low-resolution models simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP) climate have revealed a large discrepancy between all the models and pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstructions. In general, the models are too warm relative to the observations, especially in winter, where the difference is of the order of 10°C over western Europe. One of the causes of this discrepancy may be related to the low spatial resolution of these models. To assess the impact of using high-resolution models on simulated climate sensitivity, we use three approaches to obtain high-resolution climate simulations over Europe: first an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a stretched grid over Europe, second a homogeneous T106 AGCM (high resolution everywhere on the globe) and last a limited area model (LAM) nested in a low-resolution AGCM. With all three methods, we have performed simulations of the European climate for present and LGM conditions, according to the experimental design recommended by the Palaeoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Model results have been compared with updated pollen-based palaeoclimatic indicators for temperature and precipitation that were initially developed in PMIP. For each model, a low-resolution global run was also performed. As expected, the low-resolution simulations underestimate the large cooling indicated by pollen data, especially in winter, despite revised slightly warmer reconstructions of the temperatures of the coldest month, and show results in the range of those obtained in PMIP with similar models. The two high-resolution AGCMs do not improve the temperature field and cannot account for the discrepancy between model results and data, especially in winter. However, they are able to reproduce trends in precipitation more closely than their low-resolution counterparts do, but the simulated climates are still not as arid as depicted by the data. Conversely, the LAM temperature results compare well with climate reconstructions in winter but the simulated hydrological cycle is not consistent with the data. Finally, these results are discussed in regard of other possible causes for discrepancies between models and palaeoclimatic reconstructions for the LGM European climate.  相似文献   

17.
 Seventeen simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO2, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs. Received: 9 September 1998 / Accepted: 18 March 1999  相似文献   

18.
An aerosol dynamics model, AEROFOR2, is developed in the context of the BIOFOR project focussing on boreal forest aerosol. It is the second version of a Lagrangian type box model AEROFOR for investigating the formation and growth of particles under clear sky atmospheric conditions. Particles can consist of soluble and insoluble material and the particle population can be externally or internally mixed. AEROFOR2 includes gas phase chemistry and aerosol dynamics, and calculates the number and composition distributions of particles as functions of time. Observed growth rates of the nucleation mode particles after a typical nucleation event are 2–3 nm/h. The model simulations predict that 3·107 molecules cm−3 of insoluble organic vapour and less than 6·106 molecules cm−3 of soluble vapour condensing onto particles are enough to make them grow in good agreement with the observed growth rates. Then the source rate of the organic vapour must be an order of 105 molecules cm−3 s−1, and its saturation vapour density should be below 106 molecules cm−3. If the aerosol was initially an internal mixture of soluble (70%) and insoluble (30%) constituents it transformed to an externally mixed aerosol during the simulation. By applying the externally‐mixed aerosol based on measured soluble volume fractions, it was concluded that the modelled soluble fraction of the nucleation mode was too low in comparison with the measurements, and thus, a part of the condensable organic vapour must be water soluble.  相似文献   

19.
Boron isotope variations in the atmosphere   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
We report here the first measurements of boron isotope ratios in the maritime atmosphere together with those of precipitation. The δ11B values of atmospheric condensates in the western North Pacific and Japanese coast and snow in Tokyo range from −12.8 to +5.1‰ and from −0.4 to +0.4‰, respectively, which are significantly lower than those of rainwater (+18.9 to +34.7‰) collected mostly over the North Pacific. Since the 11B/10B ratios of the atmosphere are lower than those of volcanic emissions (δ11B=+2.3 to +21.4‰), we must seek sources for atmospheric boron other than volcanism. We postulate that the sea may be an important supplier for atmospheric boron under some dynamic conditions and that boron isotope fractionation during evaporation from seawater and removal from the atmosphere may account for the large variations of 11B/10B ratios observed in the atmosphere and precipitation.  相似文献   

20.
孙岚  吴国雄  孙菽芬 《气象学报》2000,58(2):179-193
利用陆面过程模式 SSi B与 IAP/LASG发展的 L9R1 5AGCM的耦合 1 0 a积分试验 ,研究了全球尺度大气与地表的水分和能量交换以及陆地与大气环流和气候的相互作用。模拟表明 :SSi B模式可模拟出陆地上较为真实的表面通量及其日变化 ,较好地定量描述土壤 -植被 -大气连续体系 ( SPAC)中能量和水分的传输过程。因此 ,将其引入气候模式中能够模拟出比 CTL- AGCM更合理的气候平均状态、水汽分布以及水汽输送的气候特征 ,特别是亚洲夏季风水汽输送独特的地域性 ,再现了大气环流 ,尤其是陆面气候的基本特征。并指出 ,陆面过程参数化的引进及其陆面状况的变化显著地改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。利用改进的再循环降水模式 ,进一步研究了陆面过程参数化明显改进降水模拟的物理机制。指出全球陆地 ,特别是盛夏北半球干旱、半干旱地区的再循环降水率明显减小 ,与陆面上表面潜热通量的显著减小区一致 ,从而克服了许多未耦合陆面过程的 AGCMs因对地表水过程非常简单地参数化导致的普遍存在着整个陆地降水偏高 ,改善了全球陆地上的水分平衡状况。因此 ,在充分耦合的陆气环流模式中模拟的降水分布与实况接近。  相似文献   

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