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1.
The mining of primary metals is critical for a range of modern infrastructure and goods and the continuing growth in global population and consumption means that these primary metals are expected to remain in high demand. However, metallic deposits are, in essence, finite and non-renewable—leading to some concern that we may run out of a given metal in the future. Here, we address this concern by presenting a brief review of the reporting of mineral resource estimates, compiling detailed datasets for national and global trends in mineral resources for numerous metals, and present detailed case studies of major mining projects or fields. The evidence clearly shows strong growth in known mineral resources and cumulative production over time rather than any evidence of gradual resource depletion. In addition, the key factors that already govern existing mining projects and mineral resources are certainly social, environmental and economic in nature rather than geological or related to physical resource depletion. Overall, there is great room for optimism in terms of humankind’s ability to supply future generations with the metals they will require.  相似文献   

2.
Supplying worldwide demand of metallic raw materials throughout the rest of this century may require 5–10 times the amount of metals contained in known ore deposits. This demand can be met only if mineral deposits containing the required masses of metals, in excess of present day ore reserves, exist in the Earth’s crust. It is, by definition, not known whether or not such mineral deposits exist. On the basis of the statistical distribution of metal tonnages contained in known ore deposits, however, it is possible to place constraints on the size distribution of the deposits that must be discovered in order to meet the expected demand. A nondimensional analysis of the distribution of metal tonnages in deposits of 20 metals shows that most of them follow distributions that, although not strictly lognormal, share important characteristics with a lognormal distribution. Chief among these is the observation that frequency falls off symmetrically and geometrically with deposit size, relative to a median deposit size that is approximately equal to the geometric mean deposit size. An immediate consequence of this behavior is that most of the metal endowment is concentrated in deposits that are several orders of magnitude larger than the median deposit size, and that are much rarer than the most common deposits that cluster around the median deposit size. The analysis reveals remarkable similarities among the statistical distributions of most of the metals included in this study, in particular, the fact that distribution of most metals can be fully described with essentially the same value (about 2–3) of the scale parameter, σ, which is the only parameter needed to describe the behavior of a normalized lognormal variable. This observation makes it possible to derive the following general conclusions, which are applicable to most metals—both scarce and abundant. First, it is unlikely that undiscovered mineral deposits of sizes comparable to those that contain most of the known metal endowment exist in sufficient quantities to supply the expected worldwide demand throughout the rest of this century. Second, if the expected demand is to be met, one must hope that very large deposits, perhaps up to one order of magnitude larger than the largest known deposits, exist in accessible portions of the Earth’s crust, and that these deposits are discovered.  相似文献   

3.
The last 50 years saw a dramatic increase in living standards and improvement in the quality of life for many of the world’s poorest. Mortality rates fell, life expectancy rose and per capita incomes swelled. That improvement has been underpinned by technological development and the ubiquitous use of metal and mineral resources. To maintain such progress while addressing climate change and a rising world population, sustainable sources of raw materials will be required, in both developed and developing countries. Delivering the UN Agenda 2030 with its seventeen Sustainable Development Goals and implementing the Paris Agreement of December 2015 will require technologies that consume both traditional and new minerals. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future. Of the 200 or so countries in the world, 60 are open to large-scale mining but 140 are not. New resource governance linkages are needed between existing institutional frameworks so that continuity of global mineral supply is assured over coming decades. Such arrangements would oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, directions of mineral exploration and sustainability of mining and ore processing, raising of consumer awareness and sharing the wealth generated by mining more fairly.  相似文献   

4.
5.
全球锂资源综合评述   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
苏彤  郭敏  刘忠  李权 《盐湖研究》2019,27(3):104-111
发展高效清洁能源是解决能源和环境问题的有效途径,交通电力化和能源储存使全球对锂产品的需求持续快速增加,导致全球对锂资源越来越关注。然而,不同文献报道和不同信息来源的全球锂资源量差别较大,我们在对各种最新报道和公开的信息进行系统分析的基础上,对全球锂资源进行了综合评述。全球卤水锂和矿石锂资源总量为3 190~5 190万吨(以金属锂计),卤水锂和矿石锂分别约占62.6%和37.4%,全球70%以上的卤水锂资源在智利、阿根廷、玻利维亚锂三角地区。以卤水为原料生产锂盐能耗低、成本低,对卤水锂资源会越来越关注,卤水提锂将成为未来锂资源提取的重要方向。  相似文献   

6.
7.
A vital and indisputable link exists between phosphate rock and world food supply. Phosphate rock is the source of phosphorus used to make phosphatic fertilizers, essential for growing the food needed by humans in the world today and in the future. We modeled the depletion of the known reserves and reserve base (which includes reserves) of phosphate rock based on various scenarios for increasing population and future demand for phosphate. Using these scenarios, the presently known reserves will be depleted within about 50 years, and the remainder of the reserve base will be depleted within the next 100 years. For this model, we used rates of growth of demand for phosphate rock of between 1 and 1.7 percent annually. We also examined demand rates that decrease over time toward demand stasis. Growthrate scenarios that stabilize demand at the year 2100 are little different from unconstrained growth. Demand stabilization by 2025 extends the reserve base by only about 50 years. Additional considerations could affect these depletion scenarios, causing them to be substantially too high or too low. Nonetheless, the incluctable conclusion in a world of continuing phosphate demand is that society, to extend phosphate rock reserves and reserve base beyond the approximate 100 year depletion date, must find additional reserves and/ or reduce the rate of growth of phosphate demand in the future. Society must: 91) increase the efficiency of use of known resources of easily minable phosphate rock; (2) discover new, economically-minable resources; or (3) develop the technology to economically mine the vast but currently uneconomic resources of phosphate rock that exist in the world. Otherwise, the future availability of present-cost phosphate, and the cost or availability of world food will be compromised, perhaps substantially.  相似文献   

8.
俄罗斯和中亚五国地域辽阔,土地、森林、水、能源等自然资源丰富,尤其是有色金属矿藏,种类配套齐全,在世界都占有重要地位。俄罗斯和中亚五国与中国在地缘、历史和文化等多方面有着悠久的历史,具有资源开发、经贸合作和科技交流的国际背景和有利条件。俄罗斯和中亚五国十分重视资源开发和原料出口,向主要经济合作伙伴推销资源产品,并很快引起许多国家,尤其是经济发展较快国家的重视。在未来的几年中,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国在土地、电力、建材、机械、畜牧业、信息、交通等领域都有着广阔的合作空间。可以说,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国及其辐射地区市场潜力巨大,待开发的领域空白点较多,特别是里海、西伯利亚的石油和天然气,是21世纪全球最具能源开发前景的地区,而能源勘探与开采领域则是我们未来需要重点发展合作的领域。但是,中亚国家的原料型经济倾向,参与世界经济一体化程度不足,生产和社会基础薄弱,这些问题都阻碍着中亚国家的可持续发展。特别是中亚国家的加工工业和轻工业相对落后,大部分日用消费品依靠进口。这是我国在中亚区域经济合作中充分发挥市场优势、加工业优势的有利条件。所以,资源和经济技术的互补性,对发展中国与中亚五国和俄罗斯双边的区域经济合作都将起到积极作用。展望21世纪的俄罗斯、中亚五国与中国的经贸合作关系,根据俄罗斯和中亚各国资源状况实地调查和统计资料等,对区域资源开发现状与潜力进行了分析,对共同面对的问题,合作的基础和条件及合作前景,都进行了探讨。  相似文献   

9.
Cobalt is obtained mainly as a byproduct of the mining and metallurgical processing of copper and nickel. The amount of minable cobalt has a characteristic supply limit, which is dependent upon demand for copper and nickel. It is considered that cobalt consumption will be affected by the amount mined in the near future, because world demand has been gradually increasing, while the production from copper sulfide ores in Zaire and Zambia, major producing countries, has decreased for political, economical and technological reasons. The world demand for cobalt has surpassed the world mine production, and cobalt sales from the National Defense Stockpile of the United States and exports from Russia and cobalt recovered from stockpiled intermediates contributed to the supply in 1994. It is concluded, from a statistical point of view, that this trend of shortage and high prices for cobalt will continue in the near future.  相似文献   

10.
孙威  毛凌潇  唐志鹏 《地理研究》2016,35(10):1819-1830
利用北京市2012年竞争型投入产出表,构建了敏感度模型,定量分析了最终使用变动1%对某一产业增加值和就业的影响程度。研究表明:① 根据经济敏感度系数,北京应该优先疏解金属制品、机械和设备修理服务等8个产业部门。假设上述产业部门全部疏解,对北京市产业增加值的影响为1.06%,对应的产业增加值减少186.4亿元。② 根据就业敏感度系数,北京应该优先疏解木材加工品和家具、纺织品等8个产业部门。假设上述产业部门全部疏解,对北京市就业人口的影响为1.31%,对应的就业人数减少12.0万人。③ 根据综合敏感度系数和首都核心功能定位,北京应该疏解的产业部门依次是批发和零售、化学产品、食品和烟草、金属冶炼和压延加工品、煤炭采选产品等19个产业部门。  相似文献   

11.
唐山市资源型产业结构及其环境影响分析   总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17  
根据 1 952 - 1 999年唐山市三类产业、工业各部门产值的变化分析了唐山市的产业发展过程 ,结合 1 985- 1 999年汇总企业的万元产值能耗、工业用水量、“三废”排放量 ,比较分析了各工业部门污染源的动态变化 ,剖析了唐山市资源消耗型工业发展过程中的环境影响。通过对环境影响机制的分析 ,认为产业结构的升级和优化是协调唐山市经济发展和环境保护的根本途径和长期任务 ,而改进目前的工业生产方式 ,削减单位产值能耗和污染物排放更为迫切 ,同时应重视环境治理和保护的监督机制的完善和落实。  相似文献   

12.
The enrichment ratio (ER), defined as the ratio of grade of a metal element in a deposit to the crustal abundance of the metal, is proposed for assessing mineral resources. According to the definition, the enrichment ratio of a polymetallic deposit is given as a sum of enrichment ratios of all metals. The relation between ER and the cumulative tonnage integrated from the high ER side of about 4750 deposits in the world is approximated by the combination of three exponential functions crossing at ER values of 16 · 103 and 600. High ER deposits are expected for the commodities Ag, Pb, and Au+Ag, and for epithermal, mesothermal, unconformity-related and vein types. In contrast, low ER deposits are typical for the commodities Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, and U, and for chemically precipitated, Cyprus, laterite, orthomagmatic, pegmatite, placer, porphyry, and sandstone deposits. The critical ER value of the low ER class (the differential metal amount decreases with decreasing ER in the regions lower than the value) is 250 in all deposits, 610 in W+Mo, 2800 in Pb+Zn and 360 in Au+Ag, 530 in massive sulfides, 160 in the orthomagmatic type, 170 in placers, 220 in the porphyry type, 1900 in the replacement type, 580 in the stratabound type, 3400 in the unconformity-related type, and 1700 in vein type deposits. The frequency proportion determined by a keyword and a commodity provides valuable suggestions for mineral exploration: for example, the exploration target for chromite is a deposit characterized as orthomagmatic, whereas the expected commodity of a newly developed orthomagmatic deposit is chromite.  相似文献   

13.
镁、镁资源与镁质材料概述   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
中国盐湖卤水镁资源的开发形势十分严峻。首先是量大,仅青海盐湖集团提钾副产的镁卤量就超过中国海盐副产镁卤总量的3倍;其二是缺少适合开发的大宗镁产品,受中国镁碳酸盐矿物开发的冲击,世界范围内,以海湖卤镁为原料的炼镁企业和氧化镁厂商都逐渐退出行业竞争。镁碳酸盐矿物方面,菱镁矿主要生产镁质耐火材料,中国镁质耐火材料产量和产能居世界首位,且已开始变强并良性发展;白云石主要生产金属镁材料,中国金属镁产量和产能占世界的比例更大,也正努力做强;与另两大类镁质材料形成鲜明对比,镁质化工材料领域的现状是又小又弱,相关发展取决于能否率先将产品做成系列和规模。中国盐湖卤水镁资源过多甚至成为"镁害",但该资源价廉、含杂质少,是镁质化工材料的优质原料,应该在相关领域加大投入。  相似文献   

14.
The Resourcing Future Generations (RFG) program is a global strategy proposed by the International Union of Geological Sciences to meet global demand for natural resources. The Belt and Road (B&R) initiative of China provides a great opportunity for promoting the RFG across much of the Eurasian continent. The countries covered by the B&R initiative are mostly low-income economies. With rapid developments of economy and infrastructure construction, these countries are set to have huge demands for mineral resources in the future. However, the proven mineral reserves in this region are too limited, and the region’s overall level of metal recycling is far from optimistic. These countries are expected to have obstacles in meeting future demands. However, the regional Tethyan metallogenic domain and Central Asia metallogenic district are key areas for new discoveries of mineral resources, possessing a variety of mineral resources with a positive prospecting potential. The B&R initiative of China provides favorable opportunity for mutual beneficial cooperation to improve regional exploration and prospecting through geological mapping, inter-comparison study on Tethyan metallogenic domain, joint assessment of mineral resource potentials, joint training of geological engineers and workers and building information systems.  相似文献   

15.
中国耕地与未来30年食物需求、保障及对策   总被引:22,自引:1,他引:22  
在未来的 30年中 ,中国的人口将继续增长 ,至 2 0 30年达到峰值 1 6亿 ,净增 3亿左右。随着社会经济的发展 ,人民生活水平的提高 ,人均食物需求的量与质越来越高。届时中国食物的保障能力受到国际社会的普遍关注。中国到 2 0 30年 ,满足上述食物需求量 ,食物主要来自耕地的生产潜力和非耕地的食物替代生产两方面。在政策非常强有力、一切从保护耕地出发、严格控制耕地占用和维持动态平衡的条件下 ,到 2 0 30年 ,中国耕地面积可保持 1 31× 1 0 6 hm2。而中国到 2 0 1 0年、 2 0 30年年人均需求粮食分别为 42 0 kg和460 kg,这两个基期年分别需求粮食总量为 5 796× 1 0 8kg和 7360× 1 0 8kg。研究认为 2 0 1 0年、 2 0 30年中国耕地动态变化后食物保障能力分别在 93%和 87%。非耕地资源食物替代是补充食物生产和缓解耕地压力的重要途径。 2 0 30年其食物替代能力可达到 90 0 0 0×1 0 3t,其中草业 3380 0× 1 0 3t,木本粮油 1 70 0 0× 1 0 3t,水域 2 5 82 0× 1 0 3t,野生生物 1 340 0× 1 0 3t,非耕地的事物替代能力达到约 1 0 %。中国食物生产与发展的四个保证 ,一是有效的保护耕地政策 ,二是科学技术进步与科技投入 ,三是构建食物生产体系与保障体系 ,四是高效利用水资源的技术与措施。  相似文献   

16.
The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.  相似文献   

17.
Minerals and the metals derived therefrom are non-renewable resources that deliver a wide range of goods and services to mankind. While their value has been recognized since thousands of years, their large-scale industrial production only really took off after World War II, thanks to the availability of efficient industrial production processes and of a rapidly rising demand, driven by demographic growth, urbanization and growing economic affluence in developed countries. The fast development of the Chinese economy, with about 300 million people reaching middle-class status and migrating to cities, drove a boom demand for minerals and metals of unprecedented magnitude in terms of tonnages consumed, that lasted from 2002 to 2013. Over a century, from 1914 to 2013, the production and consumption of pig iron, manganese and copper grew by a factor of 20, that of chromium by a factor of 182 and that of phosphate by a factor of nearly 42, while humanity grew only by a factor of about 4. Driven by demographic growth, continuing urbanization and growth of the global middle class the demand for minerals and metals will continue to exponentially grow. A scenario is proposed assessing what the theoretical requirements could be up to 2050 for minerals and metals commonly used in the construction industry, to develop infrastructure, for the mass production of metal intensive goods such as cars or in agriculture, to provide our food. The scenario, built on the trends observed since 1950, foresees that, by 2050, the demand for aluminium demand could be eight times the current production levels and the production of cement would need to grow by a factor of 7 to meet the 2050 level of demand. The lead demand would double by 2050. While geological scarcity does not appear to be an issue to feed such a demand, many factors are likely to limit the amount of minerals and metals that can be sustainably produced. Energy and water, both essential to mining, ore processing and metallurgy are likely to be limiting factors, as well as the sustainable management of the enormous amount of waste that would be generated. Public acceptance and access to exploration and mine development financing are other limiting factors to be considered. Inter-generational equity among all the stakeholders is concerned by mining, and intra-generational equity is necessary to ensure that the use of non-renewable natural capital provides benefits that last well beyond the closure of mining operations. This requires equity among stakeholders, including with nature, the silent stakeholder our lives depend on. Overcoming the challenges of the twenty-first century will require the following factors:
  • Decoupling economic growth from its unsustainable negative environmental impacts (UNEP 2011a), inter alia to reduce the pressure on natural resources;
  • Rapid development of a more circular economy based on resource efficiency and the systematic minimization of waste. Flanking policy measures (for instance: European Commission 2016) are needed to close the natural resources loop and avoid the dire predicaments of resources depletion;
  • Institutional strengthening and capacity building to ensure that sustainability agendas are developed and well integrated in corporate strategies and public policies; and
  • Trust among the stakeholders, based on corporate accountability, transparency, stakeholder engagement and reporting of the economic, environmental, governance and social performance of companies.
Failure to act on the above requirements at the global scale is likely to be a source of deep crisis where all humanity could lose.
  相似文献   

18.
Global and Regional Water Availability and Demand: Prospects for the Future   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
One of the most pressing global issues currently facing mankind is the increase in world population and its impact on the availability of freshwater. Recent estimates of water stocks and flows through the world's hydrologic cycle and their spatiotemporal variability illustrate the nature of current and projected water disparities throughout the world. As all such problems manifest themselves at smaller scales, a major challenge in freshwater assessments is how to handle this on different geographical scales. Increasing use of water is creating water shortages in many countries that are projected to have significant population increases in the next 25 years. Humankind is projected to appropriate from 70% to 90% of all accessible freshwater by 2025. Agriculture is the dominant component of human water use, accounting for almost 70% of all water withdrawals. Hence, many of the solutions to water-related food and environmental security come from within agriculture by increasing the efficiency and productivity of water use. Many factors significantly impact the increasing water demand, including population growth, economic growth, technological development, land use and urbanization, rate of environmental degradation, government programs, climate change, and others. Demand management, not increasing supply availability, is the realistic way forward. Although, thanks to market forces, the threatened exhaustion of nonrenewable resources has not happened, renewable resources, such as freshwater, remain problematic because they are vulnerable to human overuse and pollution. Climate change adds further risks and uncertainties to the global picture requiring the adoption of adaptive management in water resources based on monitoring and reevaluation. Although climate change may be perceived as a long-term problem, it needs to be addressed now because decisions today will affect society's ability to adapt to increasing variability in tomorrow's climate. If we are to balance freshwater supply with demand, and also protect the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, a fundamental change in current wasteful patterns of production and consumption is needed. Recognition of the links between rapidly growing populations and shrinking freshwater supplies is the essential first step in making water use sustainable.  相似文献   

19.
我国钾肥需求量逐年增加,80%需要进口,但同时又有大量的低品位非水溶性钾矿资源没有利用,利用非水溶性钾矿生产长效钾肥既能缓解钾肥短缺的矛盾,又可以解决普通钾肥对环境的污染和破坏。长效钾肥原料分布广,生产和施用技术简单,成本低,易于推广普及形成产业化,其对农业可持续发展将会产生重要的促进作用。  相似文献   

20.
未来中国的农业资源综合生产能力与食物保障   总被引:39,自引:3,他引:39  
陈百明 《地理研究》2002,21(3):294-304
首先预测了包括耕地资源和非耕地资源在内的农业资源的未来食物生产能力 ;然后以不同的营养供给量为标准 ,根据人口预测方案估算了未来三个时段的食物需求量 ;最后开展需求量与生产能力的平衡分析。在耕地资源生产的粮食数量与同期需求量的平衡分析中 ,2 0 10年以小康水平的食物结构作为需求标准 ,粮食生产能力略大于粮食需求量 ,2 0 30年和2 0 5 0年以较富裕和富裕水平的食物结构作为需求标准 ,粮食生产能力已小于粮食需求量。说明依靠有限的耕地资源难以满足中国从小康生活到富裕生活过程中的食物需求。以农业资源综合生产能力为基数的供需平衡分析表明 ,未来三个时段农业资源的综合生产能力所提供的食物数量均高于同期需求量。因此必须挖掘非耕地资源的食物生产潜力 ,依靠农业资源综合生产能力才能保障中国从小康生活到富裕生活过程中的食物需求。  相似文献   

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