共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 906 毫秒
1.
Zhang Yu 《地理学报(英文版)》1996,(2)
ThespatialdistriblltionofcropcultivatedinChina,especiallyofcroptyPes,vanetiesandcroppingsystems,lspnnclpallydeterm1nedbyclimaticcondltions,andarelatlvestableconcentratedroponaldistributionpattemhasbeenformedinrecat4Oyears.Temporally,cropWeldshowsanincrementaltrendandanoscillationpattenlonlargeandmesialtimescalesbecauseoftheianuenceofagnculturaltechnologyandsoclalfaCtors,respeCtively.ThesharPvariationofaghculturalproduCtsinquantityandqualityfromyeartoyearispnnc1pallycausedbyclimate.This,onth… 相似文献
2.
特色种植的空间持续性及其影响因素研究——以河南省封丘县树莓产业为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
以河南省封丘县树莓产业为例,基于实地调查,从特色种植的空间扩散网络、村域种植规模变化、不同类型村空间分布特征、整体参与村空间集聚特征4方面对特色种植的空间持续性进行分析发现：特色种植空间扩散网络密度低,空间持续性不强,但其变化的空间范围一定,集聚特征明显。运用AMOS21.0对以上现象的影响因素进行分析发现：① 农户自身特性,尤其是冒险性精神对其持续种植时长影响较大;② 资金、技术、信息等生产条件获取越便利,农户持续种植时间越长;③ 政府推动对农户持续种植具有正向作用;④ 资源环境,尤其是土壤特性和能人带动对村域种植规模影响深刻;⑤ 距离区位对村域持续种植的影响弱于基础设施条件。 相似文献
3.
2008 年中国种植业地理集聚与专业化格局 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
目前对农业地理集聚和专业化发展的研究较少。本文通过计算和比较中国2008 年种植业不同分类层次中类、小类和细类的平均基尼系数、平均Moran’s I指数和各层次农作物的专业化指数发现, 在中国省域层次上(不包括港、澳、台地区), 种植业具有一定的地理集聚态势, 且种植业划分越细, 空间集聚和专业化生产趋势越明显。从大类看, 种植业生产分布相对分散, 各省在大类上“大而全”的生产, 但从较小类上更加集聚和专业化。中国种植业区域专业化生产格局已逐步出现。大宗农产品的区域专业化程度较低, 而经济作物区域专业化程度很高。虽然具体的空间集聚格局是由各地的自然条件和各种农作物生产条件的匹配程度来决定的, 但政府决策、制度变革等社会因素在区域专业化生产上起着重要作用, 是对自然集聚格局的优化调节。定量测度种植业地理集聚与专业化发展的空间格局, 找出进行农业区域化、规模化和专业化生产具有潜力的具体区位, 可以加大政府对种植业空间布局调控优化的作用, 对各地区制定具体的农业政策具有重要意义。 相似文献
4.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):468-472
The application of composite suitability mapping integrated with a geographic information system is progressing at a much faster rate than the methodological improvements necessary for optimal use in the public planning context. The use of value functions is suggested as an alternative scaling procedure that is scientifically and operationally preferable to existing procedures. Value functions limit the operational subjectivity and enhance the potential for replication and verification of the analysis. Value functions are conducive to increased automation of the land planning and decision process while being comprehensible to non-expert decision-makers and the public. 相似文献
5.
George F. Hepner 《The Professional geographer》1984,36(4):468-472
The application of composite suitability mapping integrated with a geographic information system is progressing at a much faster rate than the methodological improvements necessary for optimal use in the public planning context. The use of value functions is suggested as an alternative scaling procedure that is scientifically and operationally preferable to existing procedures. Value functions limit the operational subjectivity and enhance the potential for replication and verification of the analysis. Value functions are conducive to increased automation of the land planning and decision process while being comprehensible to non-expert decision-makers and the public. 相似文献
6.
采用机制法对作物生产潜力模型进行了光、温、水、土逐级订正,对海伦地区的主要粮食生产潜力进行估算;并选取产量衰减量、资源满足率和资源增产潜力三个指标评价了农业资源的利用效率。结果表明,光合生产潜力为16801.4kg/hm2,光温生产潜力为12483.9kg/hm2,气候生产潜力为9799.1kg/hm2,农业自然生产潜力为8248.4 kg/hm2。如果以光温生产潜力作为目标产量,海伦地区尚有74.01%的上升潜力,且玉米的资源增产潜力高于大豆。社会经济因素是影响生产潜力实现的重要因素,自然资源中温度对产量的限制作用最大,其次是水分和土壤。在此基础上结合实地考查,对当地的粮食生产资源进行了系统分析,寻找影响粮食产量持续增长的限制性因素。 相似文献
7.
J. Christopher Brown Lisa Rausch Verônica Gronau Luz 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):249-259
Brazilian agricultural census data at the municipal level are used to develop and map a simple index of staple food versus nonstaple food agriculture for Brazil over time (1996–2006). The results show spatial variation in the direction and degree of the shift toward or away from staple food cropping across Brazil. The index is presented as an important methodological step toward a systematic geographic understanding of crop share changes surrounding food versus fuel and other nonfood crop production. 相似文献
8.
三峡库区规模农地时空变化特征及其驱动机制 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
探讨库区农地利用的转型及其机制,可反映中西部结合带、山区、库区的农村变化和人与环境关系的变化,为典型山区的农业多功能转型发展方向提供科学依据。选取三峡库区腹地5个区县为研究区,通过定义“规模农地”相关概念,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件并结合SPSS、地理空间探测器等技术手段对规模农地的变化与机制进行分析。研究发现：规模农地的转移来源主要由耕地和灌木林地组成,除部分高山反季节蔬菜,规模农地的增长一般发生在低海拔地区,且在坡度30°范围内均有分布;不同类型的规模农地空间变化有所不同,但均与道路和乡镇级行政中心的关系明显。斑块水平上,高程、坡度等自然因素对规模农地的贡献相对较大;乡镇水平上以道路交通、农业人口密度等社会经济与人文因素驱动力为主;区域水平上,各区县的驱动因子影响力较研究区整体尺度更为显著。规模农地的变化与发展受多种因素驱动,但农业政策始终是各驱动因素的主导,不同水平的行为主体会促使规模农地发展趋向不同的方向,但原则上均受国家农业发展现状与政府政策导向影响。 相似文献
9.
采用模糊层次分析方法,综合考虑自然资源条件和市场需求,分析并提出陇南山区白龙江流域各垂直气候层中农业各部门的优先发展顺序,为山区大农业发展提供决策依据。 相似文献
10.
Rezaul Mahmood Mark Meo David R. Legates Mark L. Morrissey 《The Professional geographer》2003,55(2):259-273
Agricultural practices in Bangladesh are largely dependent on the monsoonal rainfall. Historically, Bangladesh often experiences severe droughts and floods during the monsoon months, with significant crop losses during both extreme conditions. This article provides a quantitative assessment of potential monsoon‐season aman rice for four transplanting dates: 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. A crop‐growth simulation model, the CERES‐Rice, is applied to sixteen locations representing major rice‐growing regions of Bangladesh to determine baseline yield estimates for four transplanting dates. The applications were conducted for 1975 through 1987. Average potential yield in Bangladesh is 6,907, 5,039, 3,637, and 1,762 kg ha?1 for the above transplanting dates, respectively. In other words, Bangladesh would obtain 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent less yield for 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting, respectively, than for 1 June transplanting. Potential yield vulnerability is the least for 1 June transplanting (up to 5 percent) and the highest (up to 66 percent) for 15 July transplanting date. The model applications show that regional variations exist for potential yield and yield vulnerability for a particular transplanting date. In addition, response of yield and vulnerability for a region changes with transplanting dates. 相似文献
11.
中国农业氧化亚氮排放情景研究 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用国际应用系统分析研究所的"牲畜和粮食产量动态模型",模拟出2000-2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布,然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N2O排放量。结果显示,2000年我国农业N2O排放量为1533ktN2O,到2030年将增加到2000ktN2O左右,增长31%;农田N2O排放占农业N2O总排放量的80%,2030年农田N2O的排放量比2000年增长37%。由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同,各情景的N2O排放量不同,其中INMIC_低情景中N2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景。我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北,江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省,到2030年,黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N2O增加量在30ktN2O以上。硝化抑制剂作为N2O的减排措施,从2015年开始实施,减排效率由4%上升到16%。采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N2O排放。 相似文献
12.
西藏"一江两河"中部地区的农业发展与农田沙漠化 总被引：18，自引：6，他引：12
一江两河中部地区是西藏农业生产的主要区域, 也是沙漠化土地最集中、危害最严重的区域之一。作者分析了区域内农业开发、农业耕作制度改变和土壤肥力变化对农田风蚀的影响, 初步得出: 盲目开垦、不合理的农作制度和薄弱的农田基础条件加剧了农田沙漠化的发生、发展, 造成目前区域内约5万hm2占区域内总耕地面积47%以上的农田遭受风沙危害, 并呈扩展态势。为了有效的防治农田沙漠化的发生、发展, 建议加强农田防护林等基础建设, 大力发展草田间作、草田轮作等草地农业模式, 建立适宜的传统农作与现代技术结合、经济效益与生态效益结合的农作制度, 扩大冬小麦、冬青稞、油菜和豆科作物、豆科饲料等冬春季节覆盖农田地表的作物面积。 相似文献
13.
中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。 相似文献
14.
Kent M. McGregor 《自然地理学》2013,34(6):551-565
Most scenarios of greenhouse-gas climatic change predict a warmer drier Great Plains environment. The goal of this research was to determine the resulting change in soil moisture and to relate this to changes in agricultural productivity. Soil moisture was used in regression-based models to predict yields for the four major grain crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum. The results indicate that a warmer drier climate would reduce yields for the summer crops throughout the state. The yield for winter wheat also decreased in the western part of the state but actually increased in eastern Kansas. Corn and soybeans could decline in the dry land crop mix in eastern Kansas as wheat becomes a more viable alternative. Thus, the results imply possible geographic shifts in the crop belts in Kansas. [Key words: climatic change, agricultural production, soil moisture.] 相似文献
15.
Brazil seeks to rapidly increase its agricultural production to meet future demands, especially for sugarcane, which is an agricultural commodity and a biofuel source. In this paper, we explore how to achieve this increase without compromising existing forestlands. We propose that it is possible to substantially expand sugarcane production in Brazil while avoiding further environmental losses and the indirect land use changes often associated with them, such as deforestation. This task could be accomplished by converting existing pasturelands with agricultural potential into cropland. A great deal of pastureland exists in Brazil. Thus, we addressed the following questions in this study: (1) where are the most suitable pasturelands for sugarcane located geographically and (2) what potential do these pasturelands have for sugarcane production regarding their physical suitability and other significant factors, such as infrastructure availability and socioeconomic factors. We conducted a land suitability analysis using a spatial location model based on multicriteria decision-making and geographic information systems (GIS) to identify the cultivated pasturelands most suitable for conversion to sugarcane production in Brazil. “What if” scenarios were built to determine how changes in the subjectively derived weights of the priority criteria would modify the spatial distribution of the suitability classes relative to the MCDA model and demonstrate the robustness of the crop suitability assessment. The most suitable pastureland areas for conversion to sugarcane production were predominantly located in Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Pará. These zones have large contiguous areas of pasture with moderate and high agricultural potentials for sugarcane production. The total estimated area of cultivated pasturelands with moderate or high suitability for sugarcane production was 50 million hectares, which is much larger than the area currently used for sugarcane production in Brazil. 相似文献
16.
21世纪中国农业与农村可持续发展方向和策略 总被引：48，自引：6，他引：48
中国是一个历史悠久的农业大国，农民占全国总人口的70％，农村占城镇居民点建成面积的86．1％，农业只占国民生产总值的17．2％，中国的基本国情决定了农业、农村、农民在国民经济和现代化建设中的关键地位；加入WTO后的中国农业和农村经济发展，既迎来了新的机遇，也将面临更大的挑战；基于对中国农业与农村经济发展特点与问题的初步分析，提出了21世纪中国农业与农村可持续发展应选择产业化，生态化，国际化和地区化的发展方向与模式，并将重点在优化制度环境、完善保障体系和突破结构制约等几个方面进行深化改革与创新。 相似文献
17.
基于空间信息的烤烟种植适宜性 评价与轮作规划 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
基于遥感计算的气温和土壤水分及DEM计算的太阳辐射等地表参数代替站点观测数据,采用100m×100m栅格和适宜性评价指数对泸西县的烤烟种植适宜性进行评价,分析其空间分布规律。在此基础上,进行了烤烟的烟田轮作规划与核查监督。研究表明,泸西县的烤烟种植最适宜区的耕地利用率偏低,仅为28.1%,尚有2165ha的最适宜耕地有待开发利用。烤烟轮作率虽然逐年增长,最高也仅为63.7%,离95%的目标轮作率仍存在较大差距。适宜性评价时,利用遥感和DEM计算的地表参数代替观测站点的插值数据,能获得可靠的数据支持,弥补因观测站点缺失而导致的数据失真。基于空间信息的轮作规划与核查监督,可有效改善烤烟轮作率,提高烤烟的质量和产量。 相似文献
18.
Hawai‘i's agricultural landscape was previously dominated by large monocrop plantations of sugar cane and pineapple, but following a sweeping series of plantation closures beginning at the end of the twentieth century, that era has concluded. The last spatial assessment of Hawai‘i's agricultural footprint was completed in 1980, during the active plantation period. Here we present the results of a 2015 statewide assessment of the commercial crop footprint for Hawai‘i, based on World-View 2 satellite imagery and supporting datasets. We analyzed changes relative to the 1980 baseline on both a statewide and regional basis, to better understand how Hawai‘i's agricultural system has evolved in the post-plantation era. Sugar cane and pineapple saw dramatic reductions during this period, collectively losing more acres (257,000) than were planted for all crops combined (152,000) in 2015. Idle plantation lands and past plantation-era investments in irrigation and other infrastructure have created opportunities for other types of agriculture, despite rising land values, new and existing tropical diseases, and other challenges. Seed crops, primarily for genetically modified corn trials, were the second largest crop in 2015 (24,000 acres) despite having no mapped footprint in 1980. Commercial forestry, also absent in 1980, covered 23,000 acres in 2015. Macadamia nut, coffee, and diversified agriculture also all saw significant gains in their footprints, with coffee plantings increasing >250% during this period. Despite these gains, the Hawaiian Islands continue to have an extremely low degree of self-reliance for food production. The Oahu plain, adjacent to the major population center of Honolulu, has the most potential for considerably increasing the production of local produce, but without changes in consumption patterns and significant efforts to protect agricultural land from development, any increases in local food production will continue to be incremental. The post-plantation agricultural landscape in Hawaii is smaller, more diversified, and more nimble than it was in 1980, reflecting inter-island geographic differences in land use, history, and ownership. Mapping and assessing spatial changes in agricultural activity over time can provide valuable insights for decision-makers and communities as they continue to define what agriculture should look like in the post-plantation era. Our results suggest that Hawai‘i's agricultural landscape and overall production capability will continue to contract without substantial changes in policy and practice. 相似文献
19.
19802000北京市农业土地生产性的变动分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1980、1990、2000年的统计资料和实地走访观察,本文分析了北京市乡镇一级的粮食作物、蔬菜作物和果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化。研究认为:1980年北京农业生产分布格局与土地生产性为比较典型的杜能模式;随着农业经营的多样化,1990年和2000年北京农业土地生产性呈现出多样的分布格局;北京粮食作物、蔬菜作物、果品作物的分布格局及农业土地生产性近20年的变化与此阶段的农业生产政策、农业以外的社会经济活动变化有较强的关联性;对北京以上问题的研究为验证杜能、辛克利亚、布莱昂特城市周边农业地域研究经典理论的演变提供了实证案例。 相似文献
20.
基于1978—2017年中国种植业发展的专业化测算,本研究对中国种植业发展的时空特征进行了回顾和评价,创新性地运用聚类分析的方法对中国种植业的发展阶段进行划分,总结了各阶段中国种植业的发展特征。研究发现：① 各省区市种植业的专业化系数FRi逐步增强;相较于全国平均水平,东北地区和东部地区的专业化系数FRi具有较好的基础和较快的增速,中部地区和西南地区则刚好相反,西北地区的基础及增速与全国平均水平持平。② 6种农产品的地方化系数FIj均获得不同程度的增长,粮食、棉花和油料增长较快,糖料、水果和蔬菜增长较慢;糖料为高度地方化农产品,棉花和水果长期表现为高度地方化,粮食、蔬菜和油料属于低度地方化农产品。③ 相较于农业总产值10.66%的年均增速,中国种植业发展的国家专业化系数Fmn保持平稳而缓慢的增长趋势,年均增长仅2.83%。④ 可将1978—2017年中国种植业发展划分为四个阶段,即1978—1983年的第一阶段为奠定制度基础阶段、1984—1995年的第二阶段为稳步复苏和扩张阶段、1996—2014年的第三阶段为市场化改革和产业化发展深入阶段、2015—2017年的第四阶段为追求全面发展的改革创新阶段。本研究对于梳理改革开放以来中国种植业发展具有重要的指导意义,可为种植业专业化相关政策的制定提供参考依据。 相似文献