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1.
We use three measures of aridity, the Köppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and arid lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions.  相似文献   

2.
We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO2 for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.  相似文献   

3.
The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.  相似文献   

4.
For two reasons it is important to study the sensitivity of the global climate to changes in the vegetation cover over land. First, in the real world, changes in the vegetation cover may have regional and global implications. Second, in numerical simulations, the sensitivity of the simulated climate may depend on the specific parameterization schemes employed in the model and on the model's large-scale systematic errors. The Max-Planck-Institute's global general circulation model ECHAM4 has been used to study the sensitivity of the local and global climate during a full annual cycle to deforestation and afforestation in the Mediterranean region. The deforestation represents an extreme desertification scenario for this region. The changes in the afforestation experiment are based on the pattern of the vegetation cover 2000 years before present when the climate in the Mediterranean was more humid. The comparison of the deforestation integration to the control shows a slight cooling at the surface and reduced precipitation during the summer as a result of less evapotranspiration of plants and less evaporation from the assumption of eroded soils. There is no significant signal during the winter season due to the stronger influence of the mid-latitude baroclinic disturbances. In general, the results of the afforestation experiment are opposite to those of the deforestation case. A significant response was found in the vicinity of grid points where the land surface characteristics were modified. The response in the Sahara in the afforestation experiment is in agreement with the results from other general circulation model studies.  相似文献   

5.
Late Quaternary terrestrial and marine pollen records from the Canterbury Plains and Banks Peninsula suggest that climates during the peak of Marine Isotope Stage 7 (MIS 7) were similar to those prevailing during stage 5e and the Holocene. Podocarp forest (notably Prumnopitys taxifolia—matai) characterises each interglaciation. In contrast, marine records from DSDP 594 cores, off the east coast of Canterbury, indicate that stage 7 was dominated by montane forest (Libocedrus sp. and Phyllocladus). This suggests temperatures as much as 3 °C colder than indicated by the Banks Peninsula assemblage. Age control from both sites appears to be robust. Some of the differences may be related to the taphonomy of the pollen at both sites. DSDP 594 may reflect a more southerly catchment of fluvially and aeolian-derived pollen than does the Banks Peninsula site.Banks Peninsula was alternately separated from, and joined to, the mainland as Quaternary sea levels fell and rose. Assuming modern ocean current patterns, during interglacials the south–north Southland Current would have swept through the seaway separating the island from the mainland, diverting the flow of rivers embouching on the Canterbury coast, and moving sediments and fluvially transported pollen northwards. Little of this material would have reached DSDP 594, nor, if wind patterns were similar to those of today, would wind-borne pollen from Banks Peninsula have reached the site. It is probable that vegetation on the Peninsula was consistently distinct from that recorded at DSDP 594, which has a more southerly derivation.In contrast to the high mountain areas of the South Island, the low levels of grass pollen in the available record suggest that the Peninsula retained a woody vegetation over much of its area during glacial periods. This was favoured by the physiography of the area, with a variety of micro-climates, and by the extensive areas available for colonisation at times of low sea level. The podocarp forest of MIS 7 was replaced by an open shrubby vegetation in which Leptospermum and Kunzea (Leptospermum-type pollen) was locally dominant, and in which Plagianthus, Phyllocladus, Coprosma and Myrsine were prominent. Charcoal is associated with this change. Most of the recorded taxa, with the exception of Phyllocladus, are present on the Peninsula today. A gap in the pollen record coincides with the Last Interglacial and Last Glaciation, but a return of forest vegetation is documented in the later Holocene.The reconstructions do not exclude the possibility of a cooler stage 7. They do highlight the importance of excluding local/regional non-climatic effects before interpreting climate change from data sets, and reinforce the necessity of testing marine records against compatible terrestrial ones.  相似文献   

6.
New pollen and radiocarbon data from an 8.6-m coastal section, Cape Shpindler (69°43′N; 62°48′E), Yugorski Peninsula, document the latest Pleistocene and Holocene environmental history of this low Arctic region. Twelve AMS 14C dates indicate that the deposits accumulated since about 13,000 until 2000 radiocarbon years BP. A thermokarst lake formed ca. 13,000–12,800 years BP, when scarce arctic tundra vegetation dominated the area. By 12,500 years BP, a shallow lake existed at the site, and Arctic tundra with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Salix, Saxifraga, and Artemisia dominated nearby vegetation. Climate was colder than today. Betula nana became dominant during the Early Preboreal period about 9500 years BP, responding to a warm event, which was one of the warmest during the Holocene. Decline in B. nana and Salix after 9500 years BP reflects a brief event of Preboreal cooling. A subsequent increase in Betula and Alnus fruticosa pollen percentages reflects amelioration of environmental conditions at the end of Preboreal period (ca. 9300 years BP). A decline in arboreal taxa later, with a dramatic increase in herb taxa, reflects a short cold event at about 9200 years BP. The pollen data reflect a northward movement of tree birch, peaking at the middle Boreal period, around 8500 years BP. Open Betula forest existed on the Kara Sea coast of the Yugorski Peninsula during the Atlantic period (8000–4500 years BP), indicating that climate was significantly warmer than today. Deteriorating climate around the Atlantic–Subboreal boundary (ca. 4500 years BP) is recorded by a decline in Betula percentages. Sedimentation slowed at the site, and processes of denudation and/or soil formation started at the beginning of the Subatlantic period, when vegetation cover on Yugorski Peninsula shifted to near-modern assemblages.  相似文献   

7.
Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031–2060, when a 2 °C global warming is most likely to occur, are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis, under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas, the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 °C in spring and winter, while it reaches 4 °C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected, along with 2–4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in heatwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria, and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month, starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture, energy, tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture, crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast, summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk, an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland, whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the Mediterranean, coupled with improved climate conditions in northern Europe, may lead to a gradual decrease in summer tourism in the Mediterranean, but an increase in spring and autumn.  相似文献   

8.
One response of vegetation to future increases in atmospheric CO2 may be a widespread increase in stomatal resistance. Such a response would increase plant water usage efficiency while still allowing CO2 assimilation at current rates. The associated reduction in transpiration rates has the potential of causing significant modifications in climate on regional and global scales.This paper describes the effects of a uniform doubling of the stomatal resistance parameterization in a global climate model (GENESIS). The model includes a land-surface transfer scheme (LSX) that accounts for the physical effects of vegetation, including stomatal resistance and transpiration, which is described in detail in an appendix. The atmospheric general circulation model is a heavily modified version of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1 with new treatments of clouds, penetrative convection, planetary boundary layer mixing, solar radiation, the diurnal cycle, and semi-Lagrangian transport of water vapor. The other surface models include multi-layer models of soil, snow and sea ice, and a 50-m slab ocean mixed layer.The effects of doubling the stomatal resistance parameterization are largest in heavily forested regions: tropical South America, and parts of the Northern Hemispheric boreal forests in Canada, Russia and Siberia in summer. The primary surface changes are a decrease in evapotranspiration, an increase in upward sensible heat flux, and a surface-air warming. Secondary effects include shifts in the ITCZ which cause large increases in precipitation, soil moisture and runoff in western tropical South America, and decreases in these quantities in northern subtropical Africa. Noticeable changes in relative humidity, cloudiness and meridional circulation occur throughout the troposphere. The global effects on atmospheric temperature and specific humidity are small fractions of those found in other doubled CO2 experiments. However, unlike doubled CO2 the signs of those changes combine to give relatively large reductions in relative humidity and cloudiness. It is suggested that the stomatal-resistance effect and other plant responses to large-scale environmental perturbations should be included in models of future climate.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper, we examine the orbital signal in Earth's climate with a coupled model of intermediate complexity (ECBilt). The orbital influence on climate is studied by isolating the obliquity and precession signal in several time-slice experiments. Focus is on monsoonal systems with emphasis on the African summer monsoon. The model shows that both the precession and the obliquity signal in the African summer monsoon consists of an intensified precipitation maximum and further northward extension during minimum precession and maximum obliquity than during maximum precession and minimum obliquity. In contrast to obliquity, precession also influences the seasonal timing of the occurrence of the maximum precipitation. The response of the African monsoon to orbital-induced insolation forcing can be divided into a response to insolation forcing at high northern latitudes and a response to insolation forcing at low latitudes, whereby the former dominates. The results also indicate that the amplitude of the precipitation response to obliquity depends on precession, while the precipitation response to precession is independent of obliquity. Our model experiments provide an explanation for the precession and obliquity signals in sedimentary records of the Mediterranean (e.g., Lourens et al. [Paleoceanography 11 (1996) 391, Nature 409 (2001) 1029]), through monsoon-induced variations in Nile river outflow and northern Africa aridity.  相似文献   

10.
Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.  相似文献   

11.
Environmental change in the Sahel–Sudan zone of West Africa has been a major issue in development debates over the last decades. Using remote sensing based land cover change analysis, archival data, national and international statistical data, and household interviews, we analyze the drivers of environmental change in Eastern Saloum in Central East Senegal as well as the local perceptions of these changes and adaptation. Being part of the ground nut basin, Eastern Saloum has witnessed rapid environmental degradation caused by the conversion of forest and savanna areas to agricultural land during the last 20–30 years and by a combination of decline in precipitation, soil degradation, a diversity of policies with little concern for the environment, fluctuating markets and population pressure. Farmers perceive the environmental change mainly as land degradation and poor soil fertility, though recent extensification of agriculture counters this effect and has led to increased vegetation cover in marginal areas. They identified erratic climate, agricultural policies, insufficient food production and desire to increase income as the main drivers of change in the area. We conclude that while climate variability has influenced environmental change in the area, various types of State interventions in agriculture and global market fluctuations appear to have been the main underlying causes of environmental degradation.  相似文献   

12.
Tropical climatology through the last glacial cycle is believed to have ranged from colder, windier conditions at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to relatively warm, stable conditions during the Holocene. Changes in strength of the South Asian monsoon have previously been determined from a variety of proxy data and have been attributed primarily to changes in radiative forcing, although tropical sea surface temperature (SST) is known to play a fundamental role in regulating monsoon strength and is also believed to have changed throughout the late Quaternary.In this study, the monsoons simulated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) configured for the mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.) and for the LGM (21,000 years B.P.) are compared. The colder and windier conditions simulated for the LGM produced a summer monsoon whose westerly winds are stronger and whose precipitation and snowfall into the eastern Himalaya are increased, with drier conditions over the rest of the Indian subcontinent and over most of southwest Asia.The mid-Holocene monsoon circulation is stronger than today, and annual mean snow accumulation is increased over the northwestern Himalaya. These changes in precipitation and snow accumulation are analyzed in terms of the altered atmospheric circulations, which are in turn driven by changes in radiative forcing, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height. All of these factors are therefore demonstrated to be important in governing the spatial distribution of snow and ice deposition in the Himalaya during the late Quaternary, and are likely to have contributed to the observed asynchroneity of Himalayan glaciation and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume.  相似文献   

13.
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14.
The effect of vegetation on the Younger Dryas (YD) climate is studied by comparing the results of four experiments performed with the ECHAM-4 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM): (1) modern control climate, (2) simulation with YD boundary conditions, but with modern vegetation, (3 and 4) identical to (2), but with paleo-vegetation. Prescribing paleo-vegetation instead of modern vegetation resulted in temperature anomalies (both positive and negative) of up to 4°C in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, mainly as an effect of changes in forest cover (change in albedo). Moreover, changes in precipitation and evaporation were found, most notably during December–January–February (DJF) in the tropics and were caused by the replacement of forests by grasslands. These results are consistent with other model studies on the role of vegetation changes on climate and they suggest that it is important in paleoclimate simulation studies to prescribe realistic vegetation types, belonging to the period of interest. However, in our case the addition of YD vegetation did not improve the agreement with proxy data in Europe, as the temperatures were increasing during winter compared to the YD simulation with modern vegetation. It must be noted that this increase was not statistically significant. The model-data mismatch suggests that other factors probably played an important role, such as permafrost and atmospheric dust. We infer that during the last glacial-interglacial transition, the time lag between the first temperature increase and the northward migration of trees, estimated at 500–1000 years, could have delayed the warming of the Eurasian continent. The relatively open vegetation that existed during the early stages of the last glacial-interglacial transition had a relatively high albedo, thus tempering warming up of the Eurasian land surfaces.  相似文献   

15.
Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.  相似文献   

16.
This study describes surface cyclone activity associated with the interannual variability in summer precipitation in northern Eurasia and how that activity may be connected to other climate signals. An east–west seesaw oscillation of precipitation across Siberia is the primary mode of interannual variability in the summer hydrological cycle over northern Eurasia. This variation occurs at sub-decadal timescales of about 6–8 years. The spatial characteristics of cyclone frequency and cyclone tracks at the two poles in variability [eastern Siberia (ES)-wet–western Siberia (WS)-dry and WS-wet–ES-dry] were examined, and temporal variability in regional cyclone frequency was compared to basin-scale precipitation variability. The analysis period was from 1973 to 2002, when the precipitation variability signal was predominant.Cyclone behavior suggested that the regions of enhanced (reduced) cyclone activity coincided with regions of increased (decreased) precipitation in each phase of the oscillation. Such behavior reflects the zonal displacement of the track of frequent storm activity that accompanies the changes in precipitation. Comparisons of the temporal characteristics confirmed the importance of regional cyclone frequency on precipitation variability in both eastern and western Siberia. Low-frequency changes in regional cyclone activity may produce the precipitation oscillation. We used various climate signals to explore connections between regional precipitation and cyclone activity in Siberia. Results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the preceding winter is significantly and negatively correlated with summer surface cyclone frequency and precipitation over western Siberia. Enhanced (reduced) summer cyclone activity and precipitation in western Siberia follows low- (high-) winter NAO. However, the physical mechanisms linking summer cyclone activity and precipitation over western Siberia with the preceding climate conditions associated with the winter NAO remain unclear.  相似文献   

17.
Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH4, N2O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season.  相似文献   

18.
The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

19.
Using a recently developed global vegetation distribution, topography, and shorelines for the Early Eocene in conjunction with the Genesis version 2.0 climate model, we investigate the influences that these new boundary conditions have on global climate. Global mean climate changes little in response to the subtle changes we made; differences in mean annual and seasonal surface temperatures over northern and southern hemispheric land, respectively, are on the order of 0.5°C. In contrast, and perhaps more importantly, continental scale climate exhibits significant responses. Increased peak elevations and topographic detail result in larger amplitude planetary 4 mm/day and decreases by 7–9 mm/day in the proto Himalayan region. Surface temperatures change by up to 18°C as a direct result of elevation modifications. Increased leaf area index (LAI), as a result of altered vegetation distributions, reduces temperatures by up to 6°C. Decreasing the size of the Mississippi embayment decreases inland precipitation by 1–2 mm/day. These climate responses to increased accuracy in boundary conditions indicate that “improved” boundary conditions may play an important role in producing modeled paleoclimates that approach the proxy data more closely.  相似文献   

20.
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