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1.
Using series of daily average temperature observations over the period of 1961–1999 of 701 meteorological stations in China, and
simulated results of 20 global climate models (such as BCCR_BCM2.0, CGCM3T47) during the same period as the observation,
we validate and analyze the simulated results of the models by using three factor statistical method, achieve the results of multi-
model ensemble, test and verify the results of multi-model ensemble by using the observation data during the period of
1991–1999. Finally, we analyze changes of the annual mean temperature result of multi-mode ensemble prediction for the period
of 2011–2040 under the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. Analyzed results show that: (1) Global climate models can reproduce
Chinese regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, especially in low latitudes and eastern China. (2) With the
factor of the trend of annual mean temperature changes in reference period, there is an obvious bias between the model and the
observation. (3) Testing the result of multi-model ensemble during the period of 1991–1999, we can simulate the trend of temperature
increase. Compared to observation, the result of different weighing multi-model ensemble prediction is better than the same
weighing ensemble. (4) For the period of 2011–2040, the growth of the annual mean temperature in China, which results from
multi-mode ensemble prediction, is above 1 °C. In the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, under the emission scenarios
of A2, A1B and B1, the trend of growth in South China region is the smallest, the increment is less than or equals to 0.8 °C; the
trends in the northwestern region and south of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the largest, the increment is more than 1 °C. 相似文献
2.
Based on data from six meteorological stations in the permafrost regions, 60 boreholes for long-term monitoring of permafrost
temperatures, and 710 hand-dug pits and shallow boreholes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the spatiotemporal variability of
permafrost degradation was closely examined in relation to the rates of changes in air, surface, and ground temperatures. The decadal
averages and increases in the mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) from 1961–2010 were the largest and most persistent
during the last century. MAATs rose by 1.3 °C, with an average increase rate of 0.03 °C/yr. The average of mean annual ground
surface temperatures (MAGSTs) increased by 1.3 °C at an average rate of 0.03 °C/yr. The rates of changes in ground temperatures
were ?0.01 to 0.07 °C/yr. The rates of changes in the depths of the permafrost table were ?1 to +10 cm/yr. The areal extent of
permafrost on the QTP shrank from about 1.50×106 km2 in 1975 to about 1.26×106 km2 in 2006. About 60% of the shrinkage in
area of permafrost occurred during the period from 1996 to 2006. Due to increasing air temperature since the late 1980s, warm
(>?1 °C) permafrost has started to degrade, and the degradation has gradually expanded to the zones of transitory (?1 to ?2 °C)
and cold (相似文献
3.
YanWei Zhang WenShou Wei FengQing Jiang MingZhe Liu WenWen Wang Lei Bai KaiFeng Li Rui Shao ZhiWen Dong 《寒旱区科学》2012,4(1):0074-0082
This study examines spatial and temporal changes in 16 extreme temperature indices at 37 weather stations in Xinjiang and
their associations with changes in climate means during 1961–2008. Linear regression analyses reveal that significant increasing
trends in temperature were observed over Xinjiang, with the rate of 0.13 °C/decade, 0.24 °C/decade, and 0.52 °C/decade
for annual mean temperature, annual maximum, and minimum temperature, respectively. Annual frequency of cool nights
(days) has decreased by -2.45 days/decade (-0.86 days/decade), whereas the frequency of warm nights (days) has increased
by 4.85 days/decade (1.62 days/decade). Seasonally, the frequencies of summer warm nights and days are changing more rapidly
than the corresponding frequencies for cool nights and days. However, normalization of the extreme and mean series
shows that the rate of changes in extreme temperature events are generally less than those of mean temperatures, except for
winter cold nights which are changing as rapidly as the winter mean minimum temperatures. These results indicate that there
have been seasonally and diurnally asymmetric changes in extreme temperature events relative to recent increases in temperature
means in Xinjiang. 相似文献
4.
A regional climate model, RegCM3, coupled with an online dust module, is used to simulate the radiative forcing (RF) and temperature response of dust aerosols over East Asia in the latest decade (2000–2009). The simulation results show that the geographical and seasonal differences of dust aerosols distribution over East Asia are obvious. There exist two extremes of dust aerosols with column burden (CB) greater than 1,000 mg/m2; one is in the Taklimakan Desert of the Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region, China, and the other is in the Badain Jaran Desert of the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, China. The maximum value of CB appears in spring, the secondary maximum in winter, and the minimum in autumn. The RF of dust aerosols has distribution characteristics similar to CB. The regional averaged RF over East Asia at the top of atmosphere (TOARF) is ?1.72 W/m2 in spring and ?1.17 W/m2 in autumn, and that at the surface (SURRF) is ?4.34 W/m2 in spring and ?2.33 W/m2 in autumn. The temperature at the surface is decreased by dust aerosols; the regional averaged temperature decrease over East Asia is 0.154 °C in spring and 0.085 °C in autumn. There are different impacts of dust aerosols on air temperature at different heights. The air temperature is decreased by dust aerosols in the lower troposphere, but the extent of the decrease diminishes with increasing height. The air temperature is in fact increased by dust aerosols at the height of 300–400 hPa in spring, which is greatly different from that in autumn. 相似文献
5.
Mountains have been described as the water towers of the world. Almost all major rivers have their sources in mountains; glaciers are important water resources that contribute meltwater to river discharge. Glaciers participate in the global water cycle and, with their solid water storage, are an important component of the water balance. As solid reservoirs, glaciers continue to receive the mass nourishment of solid precipitation from the atmosphere, and their meltwater feed and regulate river discharge. Physical changes in glaciers are an indicator of climate change. Over the past half century, the global temperature has increased by 1–2 °C, which emphasizes the urgent task of monitoring glaciers and predicting their trend. As an example, we have investigated, researched, and surveyed Glacier No.1 in the Urumqi River source, Tianshan (abbr. Glacier No.1 Tianshan or Glacier No.1) for half a century. We have found an increase by degrees of the glacial regression during the last 400 years and discovered a terminal moraine which is forming today. The global temperature is rising continually, while the local glacial temperature is 0.4 times that of the global temperature change. Thus, we forecast that Glacier No.1 Tianshan will disappear during the late 21st Century (2074–2100 A.D.). 相似文献
6.
The characteristics of long-distance dust transport from Asia to the United States over the Pacific Ocean are statistically analyzed using OMI AI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument Aerosol Index) data during 2005–2007. The results show that there is a high correlation of AI (the correlation coefficients are as high as 0.83 in March, 0.62 in April and 0.54 in May) between the Mongolia Gobi Desert and the west coast region of the United States (40°–50°N, 120°–130°W), indicating a strong source-receptor area relationship. Through calculating the lag correlation coefficient of the dust propagation time, we determined that the dust propagation time from the Mongolia Gobi Desert to the west coast of the United States is about 6–7 days at the 99% confidence level. 相似文献
7.
With globe warming, road safety will change dramatically, especially within the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost regions. Because
of higher elevation and better atmospheric transparency, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has stronger radiation than other regions,
which can change the daily variation of ground surface temperature on the Plateau. The awning measure (shading board) is one of
the actively protected permafrost measures, which was adopted along the Qinghai-Tibet railway and highway and the Qing-Kang
Highway in China. Field test results show that embankment surface month mean net radiation is 60–130 W/m2, but the value is
below 20 W/m2 under the shading board, and the reducing level of natural net radiation is 80%–90%. The shading board reduced
the heat flow entering into the embankment by 80%–90% or more, with heat entering into the soil on the common embankment,
but emitting from the embankment under the shading board. At the same time, ground surface temperature under the shading
board is 6–8 °C lower than the exposed embankment. Test results show that the shading board measure can rapidly and effectively
reduce net radiation and heat flow into the embankment, decrease embankment surface and interior temperature, effectively delay
increase rate of soil temperature under globe warming, ensure stability and safety of the embankment, and guarantee unblocked
road projects in cold and permafrost regions. 相似文献
8.
The Medieval Climate Anomaly(MCA, AD950–1250) is the most recent warm period lasting for several hundred years and is regarded as a reference scenario when studying the impact of and adaptation to global and regional warming. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of temperature variations on decadal–centennial scales during the MCA for four regions(Northeast, Northwest, Central-east, and Tibetan Plateau) in China, based on high-resolution temperature reconstructions and related warm–cold records from historical documents. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to analyze the time series. The results showed that for China as a whole, the longest warm period during the last 2000 years occurred in the 10 th–13 th centuries, although there were multi-decadal cold intervals in the middle to late 12 th century. However, in the beginning and ending decades, warm peaks and phases on the decadal scale of the MCA for different regions were not consistent with each other. On the inter-decadal scale, regional temperature variations were similar from 950 to 1130; moreover, their amplitudes became smaller, and the phases did not agree well from 1130 to 1250. On the multi-decadal to centennial scale, all four regions began to warm in the early 10 th century and experienced two cold intervals during the MCA. However, the Northwest and Central-east China were in step with each other while the warm periods in the Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau ended about 40-50 years earlier. On the multi-centennial scale, the mean temperature difference between the MCA and Little Ice Age was significant in Northeast and Central-east China but not in the Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. Compared to the mean temperature of the 20 th century, a comparable warmth in the MCA was found in the Central-east China, but there was a little cooling in Northeast China; meanwhile, there were significantly lower temperatures in Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau. 相似文献
9.
《地理学报(英文版)》2017,(3)
Based on the statistical method and the historical evolution of meteorological stations,the temperature time series for each station in Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are tested for their homogeneity and then corrected.The missing data caused by war and other reasons at the 8 meteorological stations which had records before 1950 is filled by interpolation using adjacent observations,and complete temperature time series since the establishment of stations are constructed.After that,according to the representative analysis of each station in different time periods,the temperature series of Hunan Province during 1910–2014 are built and their changes are analyzed.The results indicate that the annual mean temperature has a significant warming trend during 1910–2014 and the seasonal mean temperature has the largest rising amplitude in winter and spring,followed by autumn,but no significant change in summer.Temperature variation over Hunan Province has several significant warm-cold alternations and more frequent than that in whole China.Annual and seasonal mean temperatures except summer and autumn have abrupt warming changes in the recent 100 years.The wavelet analysis suggests that the annual and four seasonal mean temperatures in recent 100 years have experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm. 相似文献
10.
Climate change is likely to affect hydrological cycle through precipitation,evapotranspiration,soil moisture etc.In the present study,an attempt has been made to study the climate change and the sensitivity of estimated evapotranspiration to each climatic variable for a semi-arid region of Beijing in North China using data set from 1951 to 2010.Penman-Monteith method was used to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration(ETo).Changes of ETo to each climatic variable was estimated using a sensitivity analysis method proposed in this study.Results show that in the past 60 years,mean temperature and vapor pressure deficit(VPD) were significantly increasing,relative humidity and sunshine hours were significantly decreasing,and wind speed greatly oscillated without a significant trend.Total precipitation was significantly decreasing in corn season(from June to September),but it was increasing in wheat season(from October to next May).The change rates of temperature,relative humidity,VPD,wind speed,annual total precipitation,sunshine hours and solar radiation were 0.42℃,1.47%,0.04 kPa,0.05 m·s–1,25.0 mm,74.0 hours and 90.7 MJ·m–2per decade,respectively.In the past 60 years,yearly ETo was increasing with a rate of 19.5 mm per decade,and total ETos in wheat and corn seasons were increasing with rates of 13.1 and 5.3 mm per decade,respectively.Sensitivity analysis showed that mean air temperature was the first key factor for ETo change in the past 60 years,causing an annual total ETo increase of 7.4%,followed by relative humidity(5.5%) and sunshine hours(–3.1%);the less sensitivity factors were wind speed(0.7%),minimum temperature(–0.3%) and maximum temperature(–0.2%).A greater reduction of total ETo(12.3%) in the past 60 years was found in wheat season,mainly because of mean temperature(8.6%) and relative humidity(5.4%),as compared to a reduction of 6.0% in ETo during corn season due to sunshine hours(–6.9%),relative humidity(4.7%) and temperature(4.5%).Increasing precipitation in the wheat season will improve crop growth,while decreasing precipitation and increasing ETo in the corn season induces a great pressure for local government and farmers to use water more efficiently by widely adopting water-saving technologies in the future. 相似文献
11.
河南省棉花的气候风险研究 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
地理过渡带附近的农业气候风险度对气候变化有较为敏感的响应。作者在前人对农作物适宜度研究的基础上，建立棉花气候适宜度模型和风险度指标，对河南省棉花气候风险度进行了深入的分析。研究发现．近40年米河南省棉花气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势．其中降水量对气候风险度增加的作用最重要．而且气候适宜度及其变率对风险度的变化的影响在不同时期有不同的表现；风险度的增加速度有明显的区域差异性和过渡性．在东西方向上．东部平原区的风险度变化快于西部山区．其中黄淮平原中南部与伏牛山区的对比最为显著．在南北方向上．黄淮平原中南部到黄河中游谷地的快速增长带与黄河下游沿岸到中游北侧的低速增长带的对比特别明显．这主要是地形过渡带和气候过渡带作用的结果；风险度的变化过程也有明显的区域差异性．跳跃式变化是河南东部风险度变化中的重要特点．这种突变特点在南北方向上有明显的纬度差异性；在河南西部山地的风险度变化中，跳跃式变化很少见，尽管该区近40年棉花气候风险度的变化倾向仍为增加趋势．但自20世纪80年代末以来．风险度逐渐减小． 相似文献
12.
13.
The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades. 相似文献
14.
气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。 相似文献
15.
16.
Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%, >20% and >30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest. 相似文献
17.
青海东部史前文化对气候变化的响应 总被引：14，自引：5，他引：9
对青海东部史前文化的分布进行比较研究,表明史前文化在空间上不断扩大,较为显著的扩大曾发生过两次;同时以黄河谷地和湟水谷地为通道,史前文化从东向西不断扩展。青海东部史前文化分布与温度有显著的正相关,尤其是与日平均气温 ≥10 oC期间的积温关系最密切;且史前文化变迁与气候变化在时相上具有一致性。初步证明了史前文化的发展、扩张与气候变化呈显著的相关性,而气候变化是引起这种变化的深层原因,因此气候成为青海史前文化变迁的重要激发因子,它对文明的分布、传播、扩展、演变都产生了重要影响。 相似文献
18.
Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China
into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases
with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in
the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus
sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by
temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases
with increasing latitude. At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is
low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate
risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because
of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the
high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward
and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of >10%, >20% and
>30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing
from southeast to northwest. 相似文献
19.
黄河上游气候变化对地表水的影响 总被引：29，自引：2，他引：27
利用1961~2002年黄河上游唐乃亥水文站水文资料及同期该流域气象资料,研究黄河上游流域气候变化及其对地表水资源的影响,结果表明: 黄河上游年流量呈现出逐年减少趋势,20世纪90年代以来减少趋势更为明显;黄河上游流域气候变化表现出气温升高、降水减少和蒸发增大的干旱化趋势,这一变化趋势在90年代以来尤为突出;气温升高、降水量减少和蒸发量增大是导致黄河上游流量减少的气候原因,其中降水量是影响流量的主要气候因子,降水量的减少特别是夏季降水量的减少直接导致了黄河上游流量的减少。 相似文献
20.
DING Yongjian YANG Jianping LIU Shiyin CHEN Rensheng WANG Genxu SHEN Yongping WANG Jian XIE Changwei ZHANG Shiqing 《地理学报》2003,13(2):172-180
Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×104 km2. Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×104 km2. Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River. 相似文献