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1.
Urban hailstorms are rarely studied in detail. This work documents five urban storms in Alberta where damage has, on three occasions, set the record for Canada's most costly natural disaster. Information from newspapers, insurance companies, and disaster assistance programs was utilized to supplement meteorological records and information obtained from public surveys.The record-breaking hail swath which accompanied the 1987 Edmonton tornado was mapped using over 800 responses to an unprecedented newspaper survey. Tennis ball sized hail struck 125 km2 of the city. Record-sized hailstones for Alberta were collected. Citizens' measurements of giant hailstones were compared to laboratory measurements. The rural storms were tracked using lightning detector information and damage was mapped using crop insurance and disaster assistance claims. The tornado-bearing storm was found to have a unique track.A late-season hailstorm which struck Calgary in 1991 was mapped using homeowner insurance claims organized by postal areas. Nine out of thirty areas had claims rates exceeding 50%, mainly for shingle replacement. Experiences of claims adjustors and an informal public survey were also utilized. Rural storms were mapped using weather radar and crop losses. The radar beam was strongly attenuated when it passed through hail-bearing storms and, thus, its ability to detect large hail was compromised.Weather conditions, urban and rural damaged areas, and insurance payments were compared for all five local hailstorms. These storms were discussed within the context of the long history of Alberta hail research and current trends in technology implementation. Forecasting of these hailstorms using conventional severe weather indicators was difficult in Calgary because of that city's proximity to the mountains. Hailstorms that struck Munich, Denver, and Toowoomba (Australia) were also discussed, and the hailstones collected from the great Munich storm were compared to those collected from the Edmonton storms. 相似文献
2.
新疆冰雹灾害经济损失评估及风险区划研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
基于1984-2014年新疆雹灾受灾面积、总成灾面积、农作物播种面积、新疆生产总值及以县为单位的雹灾频次等统计数据,构建雹灾经济损失指标和风险度指标,进行新疆冰雹灾害评估研究。其中雹灾经济损失指标可用于评价新疆雹灾经济损失的趋势变化,风险度指标可借助GIS空间信息处理技术形成新疆雹灾风险区划。研究表明：雹灾经济损失总体呈波动上升趋势,且受环境不稳定度的影响较大,二者保持着较好的正相关性。新疆冰雹灾害总体以中、低度风险为主,高风险次之。高风险区主要集中在喇叭形河谷地带的伊犁地区及其两侧的阿克苏、博州等地,建议通过调整农业产业结构、提升人工防雹能力等方式降低上述区域的雹灾损失。 相似文献
3.
Hailstorms represent one of the major sources of damage and insurance loss to residential, commercial, and agricultural assets in several parts of Central Europe. However, there is little knowledge of hail risk across Europe beyond local historical damage reports due to the relative rarity of severe hail events and the lack of uniform detection methods. Here we present a new stochastic catalog of hailstorms for Europe. It is based on satellite observations of overshooting cloud tops (OT) that indicate very strong convective updrafts and hail reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). Historic hail events are defined based on OT detections from satellite infrared brightness temperatures between 2004 and 2011 for the warm seasons (April–September). The satellite-based historical event properties are complemented by hailstone observations from ESWD to stochastically simulate more than 1 million individual events with an event footprint resolution of 10 km. The final hail event catalog presented in this paper is the first one with a spatial event distribution that is based on a single homogeneous observation source over Europe. Areas of high hail probability or hail risk are found over Central and Southern Europe, including mountainous regions such as the Alps or the Pyrenees. Another region of relatively high hail risk is present over central Eastern Europe. 相似文献
4.
渭干河-库车河绿洲是南疆地区主要棉花生产基地之一, 随着气候变化和棉花种植面积的日益扩大, 雹灾对棉花生产的危害日趋严重. 利用该地区4个气象站44 a逐一地面降雹过程资料和33 a灾情信息, 对冰雹时空变化特征、活动规律、强度、受灾面积和影响因素等进行研究. 结果表明: 降雹空间分布为北部靠山地带多于南部平原地带, 受灾面积的空间分布则相反; 降雹以周期短、强季节性特征为主, 各县中等以上降雹天气占80%以上, 降雹趋于高发和强发的态势. 降雹频次与气温和降水呈较好的相关性, 冰雹多发年气温偏低、降水偏多, 冰雹少发年气温偏高、降水偏少. 位于南部靠近沙漠的沙雅县受灾最为严重, 雹灾与降雹强度、地域、季节和作物面积及类型等有关, 该地区棉花受灾机率大. 相似文献
5.
In this paper we study the effect of operating time of AgI ground acetonic generatorsbefore hailing on the hail characteristics (size and hardness), and hailfall crop damages.The study was carried out in a large area of northern Spain over an area of 12,000 km2.Data are available from 1,984 hailstorms that occurred from May to September in theperiod 1982–1987. By using several Stepwise Logistic Regression Models, a statisticalsignificant (p < 0.05) decrease shows up in hailfall crop damage due to hail prevention.This effect is due to the influence of ground seeding on the hardness and mainly on thesize of hailstones. 相似文献
6.
This paper summarises work undertaken at the Natural Hazards ResearchCentre with regard to the compilation, climatological analysis and lossmodelling application of hailstorm data for the greater Sydney region. Itdiscusses the results from two associated research areas: ENSO-relatedclimatological analysis of hailstorm data, and insurance sector orientedrisk assessment of hail losses in the Sydney basin. The two complementaryprojects led to the development of HailAUS, the first hail loss model for amajor urban area in Australia. The hazard occurrence module of the hailloss model is based on a comprehensive, good quality hail data set, whoseinterannual variability has previously been analysed with regard to the ENSOsignal. The paper presents the major results of the local hail data climatology,and outlines the structure of the hail loss model. The important practicalapplications that result from the collection and analysis of good qualityclimatological data are noted. 相似文献
7.
1961-2014年新疆冰雹灾害时空分布特征 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过整理、 普查得到1961-2014年新疆以县为单位的雹灾频次、 受灾面积、 经济损失的样本序列, 在此基础上定义了表征雹灾程度的无量纲数损失指数. 结果表明: 新疆雹灾频次集中出现在阿克苏地区、 博州、 石河子地区, 5-8月为多发期, 6月最多. 雹灾的年际变化呈现出2～5 a的短周期和7～8 a的长周期, 20世纪60、 70年代为新疆雹灾的少发期, 1980-1994年、 2001-2014年为雹灾的两个集中高发期. 按照地区累计灾损指数将新疆雹灾划分为5个等级, 阿克苏地区属严重雹灾区, 喀什地区、 塔城地区、 伊犁州属重雹灾区, 石河子地区、 博州、 昌吉州、 巴州、 克拉玛依市属中雹灾区, 阿勒泰地区、 克州、 和田地区、 哈密地区属轻雹灾区, 吐鲁番地区和乌鲁木齐市属微雹灾区. 相似文献
8.
This paper presents hail characteristics for two separate periods (1981–1990,1991–1999) in the western part of the hail protected area along the Croatianand Slovenian border. The first period is characterised by full application ofhail suppression technology. The protected area was covered with a sufficientnumber of hail suppression rockets, rockets launching was permitted across theSlovenian border aimed at early seeding, and Slovenia in that time had also theoperative hail suppression system. The second period is characterised withsignificantly lower application of hail suppression technology compared withfirst period. During the independence war in Croatia, because of a lack ofrockets and other objective circumstances, appropriate rocket hail suppressionwas missing. This work examines whether hail characteristics on the border areahave changed, taking into account the changes in suppression. Results show thatthe average diameter of hailstones and duration of hailfall slightly increasedin second period. Also, there is an increase in the number of areas with alarger ratio of hail producing heavy damage, compared with first period. On thebasis of data from five meteorological stations, it is visible that, as a resultof implementation of the hail suppression system, the average number of dayswith solid precipitation on that area in period April–October has reduced,compared with the period when there was no hail suppression system. 相似文献
9.
基于灾损评估的青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用青海高原1961-2010年42个气象站逐次冰雹过程及其灾情信息, 采用滑动平均、 标准归一化及线性回归等方法, 在分析致灾因子危险性、 承灾体易损性评估指标的基础上, 建立了冰雹灾害区划模型, 并结合ArcGIS9.3平台得到青海高原冰雹灾害风险区划图. 结果表明: 青海东部农业区、 环青海湖地区、 柴达木盆地东部及三江源地区中东部为易受冰雹灾害影响的特高风险或高风险区域; 祁连山地区为中风险区, 而低风险区则位于柴达木盆地中、 西部. 区划结果与历史冰雹灾情基本吻合, 旨在为该区防灾减灾提供科学依据. 相似文献
10.
This article assesses the extent and costs of lightning-related damage and disruption in Canada. Lightning routinely damages
property and disrupts economic and social activities. Affected sectors include health; property and casualty insurance; forestry;
electricity generation, transmission, and distribution; agriculture; telecommunications; transportation; and tourism and recreation—the
first four sectors are the most important in terms of contributing to overall impacts and costs. Secondary data and extrapolations
from U.S. studies were used to develop cost estimates for the health, property, forestry, and electricity sectors. Aggregated,
annual lightning-related damage and disruption costs in Canada range from CA$600 million to CA$600 million to CA1 billion. Forestry and electricity
damages accounted for over 85% of the total. The estimates are both preliminary and conservative. In terms of continued research,
additional or more refined studies using Canadian empirical data are warranted for the insurance and electricity sectors.
Detailed insurance claim or outage data would permit analysis at the storm level and potentially discern finer-scaled risk
patterns. Further effort is also required to evaluate risk or damage prevention measures, particularly those that relate to
expanded or enriched use of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network data by both public and private sector clients. Both
the degree of adoption and efficacy or cost-effectiveness should be investigated. 相似文献
11.
Qing Sun Zaiqiang Yang Xianghong Che Wei Han Fangmin Zhang Fang Xiao 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(1):69-88
The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions. 相似文献
12.
Alec Paul 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(4):345-352
A climatological-cartographic study of nine years of crop-hail insurance data in Saskatchewan shows that a high proportion of total damages is done by storms which leave long, narrow tracks or swaths of hail at the ground. These individual hailstorms are long lived. At least 76 swaths 150 km or more in length occurred during the nine summers, indicating storm lifetimes of at least 3 h. More than half of these travelling thunderstorms persisted for 5 h or more, a few for as long as 8 to 10 h. Such longevity may permit improved forecasting and warning of the hail hazard from 50–60% of these storms. 相似文献
13.
A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
14.
In February 2010, 19 fatalities and economic damage were caused by a regional landslide episode in the state of Michoacán, México. The municipalities of Angangueo, Ocampo, Tiquicheo de Nicolás Romero, Tuxpan, and Tuzantla were severely damaged, with Angangueo being the most affected. The event involved a series of debris flows, of which four were the most significant; these four caused 16 deaths in addition to considerable damage to roads, electricity, and the water supply system, with indirect consequences in crop production, cattle farming, and tourism. The area affected by these four flows was calculated as 282?km2, with an estimated 697,346?m3 of mobilized material. General observations indicated that the initiation sources of the debris flows were on deforested zones. The present research is concentrated on the Angangueo basin, an area situated within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. Given the lack of rain gauges in the area of interest, records from neighboring points were used to build a comprehensive overview of the extreme precipitation event that triggered the devastating debris flows. The nearest rain gauge, Laguna del Fresno, situated 21?km to the south, recorded 204?mm of rainfall from 1 to 5 February, equivalent to 30% of the mean annual rainfall. Moreover, during a 24-h period the El Bosque rain gauge recorded 144.5?mm of precipitation, the equivalent of 2,270% of the mean rainfall for the same month (6.36?mm). The occurrence of a hailstorm preceding the rainfall event is notable; conditions in the superficial soil layer would have included an increased pore water pressure. Presumably, before the 2,000-year return period extreme rainfall event, thawing of hail and consequent moisture and/or pore-pressure increase result in decreased frictional strength. This paper presents a spatial analysis of the distribution of these landslides, mainly debris flows, as well as general observations on the triggering mechanism, the strength properties of the materials involved, and the societal impact. 相似文献
15.
南疆近60 a来冰雹灾害时空变化特征分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
冰雹是新疆主要灾害性天气之一, 利用新疆南疆各地州1949-2008年发生的冰雹频次及其造成的受灾农田面积、 经济损失、 死亡牲畜等资料, 分析了南疆冰雹频次时空变化特征及各县市雹灾灾情.结果表明: 南疆冰雹发生频次近60 a间呈明显上升趋势, 1950年代至1980年代中期发生频次较低, 1986年开始发生频次显著上升, 至1991年达最高值, 由1996年起又减少到2003年谷底.冰雹发生主要集中在3-10月, 其中6月频次最多, 年均3.6次, 其次5月为3.1次. 巴州、 阿克苏、 喀什和克州以春末到夏季型降雹为主, 和田以春季型降雹为主.冰雹一天之内多发生在白天到傍晚时段, 持续时间多为1~20min. 南疆冰雹空间分布上西北部多于东南部, 山脉的背风坡多于迎风坡, 山间盆地多于开阔平原.对各地州而言, 阿克苏冰雹发生频次最多, 属于严重雹灾区; 喀什和巴州次于阿克苏, 属于重雹灾区; 克州与和田冰雹发生频次较少, 属于中雹灾区. 冰雹受灾农田面积和经济损失随着工农业生产总值的增长而增加, 而且增长速度比经济增长速度快. 建议加大防雹投入力度, 建立人工防雹系统, 以减少雹灾损失, 遏制工农业发达地区雹灾损失严重和随着国民经济的增长雹灾损失增加的现象. 相似文献
16.
利用C波段新一代多普勒天气雷达监测资料和探空数据,对新疆南疆阿克苏地区西部绿洲2009-2015年28个降雹个例、32个对流风暴降雹单体进行分析,把发生在该区域的暴雹单体分为弱、中、强等三种类型,并综合分析不同强度降雹单体的“初生”、“跃增”和“酝酿”三个冰雹云生命史关键阶段的空间分布、演变规律以及不同温度层之间的关系,筛选出了能够提前识别各类冰雹云的雷达回波特征参量及指标阈值,并以此作为判识因子,建立了三种冰雹云提前识别及预警概念模型,同时对其识别能力进行验证,获得了三类冰雹云80%以上的识别准确率和合适的早期识别与有效作业指挥时间提前量,为该区域强冰雹云的早期识别与有效实施人工防雹作业决策提供科学依据。 相似文献
17.
18.
The results of the analysis of long-term radar research of the hailstorms over the central part of the Northern Caucasus are presented. Radar observations which formed the basis of experimental material were carried out continuously from the moment of the first radar echo registration until complete dissipation of the hailstorm. The computerized system of collecting, processing and the analysis of the radar information was used. Time discretization of the radar parameters of the full spatial observation averaged 3 min. Statistical sampling of radar data included 392 hail cells, for each of which the time distributions of the radar parameters both measured and calculated using the computerized system were compiled. Distribution of the hailstorms first radar echo formation zones over the observation region was compiled. Areas with the maximum frequency of the hailstorms first radar echo formation were defined. The hailstorm trajectories were analyzed. Four main types of hail cell trajectories were selected, which included 86 % of the supercells and 64 % of the long-lived multicells. The dynamic parameters of the hail core formation and development were analyzed. The hail storm characteristics of the Northern Caucasus are compared to the hail storms of Mendoza, Argentina, and Alberta, Canada. The bases of the organization of regional hail suppression services which use the rocket technology of cloud seeding are presented. The results of the cloud seeding operations during recent years are shown. 相似文献
19.
The results of the analysis of long-term radar research of the hailstorms over the central part of the Northern Caucasus are presented. Radar observations which formed the basis of experimental material were carried out continuously from the moment of the first radar echo registration until complete dissipation of the hailstorm. The computerized system of collecting, processing and the analysis of the radar information was used. Time discretization of the radar parameters of the full spatial observation averaged 3 min. Statistical sampling of radar data included 392 hail cells, for each of which the time distributions of the radar parameters both measured and calculated using the computerized system were compiled. Distribution of the hailstorms first radar echo formation zones over the observation region was compiled. Areas with the maximum frequency of the hailstorms first radar echo formation were defined. The hailstorm trajectories were analyzed. Four main types of hail cell trajectories were selected, which included 86 % of the supercells and 64 % of the long-lived multicells. The dynamic parameters of the hail core formation and development were analyzed. The hail storm characteristics of the Northern Caucasus are compared to the hail storms of Mendoza, Argentina, and Alberta, Canada. The bases of the organization of regional hail suppression services which use the rocket technology of cloud seeding are presented. The results of the cloud seeding operations during recent years are shown.
相似文献20.
硬岩隧道开挖过程中的岩爆灾害与隧道围岩的应力状态密切相关，卸压爆破可减缓围岩体应力集中程度，是一种直接有效的岩爆防治措施。以巴陕高速公路米仓山隧道岩爆段卸压爆破为例，运用GDEM-BlockDyna(块体动力学仿真系统)软件进行考虑高地应力和岩体非均质性条件的隧道分步开挖数值模拟分析；将卸压爆破作为唯一变量，进行了两组方案(是否进行卸压爆破)的数值模拟对比分析，并结合微震监测数据，对隧道围岩卸压爆破效果进行检验。结果表明:在隧道围岩分步开挖过程(未进行卸压爆破)的模拟中，围岩出现起裂损伤，应力集中和局部裂纹贯通等现象，并可能诱发岩爆灾害；在围岩卸压爆破条件下，围岩应力集中以及损伤程度有所降低，岩爆风险得到抑制。对比两组模拟结果，损伤均集中于拱顶及拱底，损伤半径比值(卸压/未卸压)分别为3.4倍(拱顶)、1.47倍(拱底)，损伤体积比值(卸压/未卸压)为5.36倍，但区域最大损伤量值从1(未卸压)降低到0.6(卸压)，且围岩应力峰值降低约5 MPa，应力梯度降低0.8 MPa ·m-1，表明围岩仍具有自稳能力，岩爆发生风险降低。相关结果可为隧道高地应力围岩段实施卸压爆破和合理设计卸压爆破方式提供理论依据。 相似文献