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1.
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2.
Hourly monitoring of electrical conductivity (EC) of groundwater along with groundwater levels in the 210 m deep boreholes (specially drilled for pore pressure/earthquake studies) and soil Rn gas at 60 cm below ground level in real time, in the Koyna-Warna region (characterized by basaltic rocks, >1500 m thick, and dotted with several sets of fault systems), western India, provided strong precursory signatures in response to two earthquakes (M 4.7 on 14/11/09, and M 5.1 on 12/12/09) that occurred in the study region. The EC measured in Govare well water showed precursory perturbations about 40 h prior to the M 5.1 earthquake and continued further for about 20 h after the earthquake. In response to the M 4.7 earthquake, there were EC perturbations 8 days after the earthquake. In another well (Koyna) which is located 4 km north of Govare well, no precursory signatures were found for the M 4.7 earthquake, while for M 5.1 earthquake, post-seismic precursors were found 18 days after the earthquake. Increased porosity and reduced pressure head accompanied by mixing of a freshwater component from the top zone due to earthquakes are the suggested mechanisms responsible for the observed anomalies in EC. Another parameter, soil Rn gas showed relatively proportional strength signals corresponding to these two earthquakes. In both the cases, the pre-seismic increase in Rn concentration started about 20 days in advance. The co-seismic drop in Rn levels was less by 30% from its peak value for the M 4.7 earthquake and 50% for the M 5.1 earthquake. The Rn anomalies are attributed to the opening and closing of micro-fractures before and during the earthquake. On line monitoring of these two parameters may be useful to check the entire chemistry change due to earthquake which may help to forecast impending earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.  相似文献   

4.
It is shown that temporal variation in hydrochemistry may be attributed, in part, to continuous seismotectonic activity occurring before the onset of the 1995 “Kobe” earthquake, Japan, challenging the “one earthquake–one signal” hypothesis with respect to potential precursory signals to this devastating event. A possible continuous seismotectonic influence on chloride and sulphate ion-concentration is evaluated with aggregate earthquake-information by transforming a multivariate earthquake time series (including coordinates and magnitude) into a one-dimensional time series (considering geometric relationships between earthquakes and the well-site). A piecewise analysis of ion-concentration and seismotectonic-activity time series compares trends and change points between the two time series: a positive correlation (before the proposed onset of the preparation stage) is followed by a negative correlation (during the proposed preparation stage) which, in turn, is succeeded by a positive correlation (after the heaviest aftershock sequences). This suggests that seismotectonic processes occurring before the Kobe earthquake dynamically influenced aquifer characteristics, leading to temporal variations in the hydrochemical time series. Accordingly, a dynamic change in the mixing ratios of waters with different hydrochemical characteristics is proposed as a mechanism for explaining observed variation. The research can be extended by considering vectors in the stress field that lead to changes in the aquifer-well system.The influence of seismotectonics on precursory changes in groundwater composition for the 1995 Kobe earthquake, Japan.  相似文献   

5.
The analysis of earthquake-related signals in hydrochemical time series is still a challenging task. Mostly it is unclear how the geometrical and energetic distribution of earthquakes is influencing variation in the hydrochemical composition of monitoring sites, e.g. located close to volcanoes. Past research showed that linear stress-release models alone are not capable to explain sufficiently observed variation in hydrochemical time series due to earthquake activity. A spring located at the base of Koryaksky Volcano, which has shown hydrochemical variation close to 5, major earthquakes, was chosen to analyse relation patterns between hydrochemical variation and seismicity. A possible mechanism, explaining observed hydrochemical variation, that seismic waves trigger an underground water pumping caused by nucleation of gas bubbles in magma was proposed. Consequences are an increase of discharge, gas content in water and changes in the mixing ratios of waters of different genesis. Based on functions of aggregated earthquake information (E) it is herein shown that seismotectonic-triggered processes have a significant influence on the variation of the hydrochemistry of the spring, lasting longer than two decades. At least seven categories of relation patterns between hydrochemical variation and seismotectonic activity E can be identified. A conducted spectral analysis shows that earthquake activity and hydrochemistry share spikes in frequencies. Results prove that the use of functions of transformed aggregated seismic observations is useful to represent the seismotectonic activity for analysing earthquake-related signals in hydrochemical time series.  相似文献   

6.
Earthquake activity is monitored in real time at the Koyna reservoir in western India, beginning from August 2005 and successful short term forecasts have been made of M ∼ 4 earthquakes. The basis of these forecasts is the observation of nucleation that precedes such earthquakes. Here we report that a total of 29 earthquakes in the magnitude range of 3.5 to 5.1 occurred in the region during the period of August 2005 through May 2010. These earthquakes could broadly be put in three zones. Zone-A has been most active accounting for 18 earthquakes, while 5 earthquakes in Zone-B and 6 in Zone-C have occurred. Earthquakes in Zone-A are preceded by well defined nucleation, while it is not the case with zones B and C. This indicates the complexity of the earthquakes processes and the fact that even in a small seismically active area of only 20 km × 30 km earthquake forecast is difficult.  相似文献   

7.
Earthquakes cause a variety of hydrological phenomena, including changes in the ground water levels in bore wells. The Koyna region in the peninsular shield of India, hitherto considered stable in terms of seismic activity, has been active since 1967. More recently, the earthquakes have been localized to the newly impounded Warna reservoir, which is located south of Koyna, where a burst of seismicity occurred in 1993. The region continues to remain seismically active even after four decades. Twenty-one bore wells were drilled around the seismic source volume in the region to observe water level changes resulting from earthquake phenomena. Our studies have shown coseismic anomalous water level changes to be associated with the moderate earthquakes of April 25, 1997 and February 11, 1998. Our results show that changes in the ground water level in bore wells are correlated with micro-earthquake activity, both preceding and following moderately sized earthquakes. The results have implications in enhancing our understanding of earthquake mechanisms.  相似文献   

8.
Koyna–Warna region in western India is known to be the largest case of the reservoir-triggered seismicity in the world with M6.3 earthquake in 1967. This region continues to be seismically active even after 45 years with occurrences of earthquakes up to M5.0. The porous crustal rocks of Koyna–Warna region respond to changes in the prevailing stress/strain regime. This crustal section is highly fractured and is being fed by rivers and reservoirs. It is also subjected to fluctuating plate boundary forces and significant gravity-induced stresses due to crustal inhomogeneities. These changes induce variations in the water level in bore wells before, during and after an earthquake, and their study can help in understanding the earthquake genesis in the region. The ongoing seismicity thus requires understanding of coupled hydrological and tectonic processes in the region. Water table fluctuations are a reflection of the ongoing hydro-tectonics of the region. The fractal dimension of water levels in the bore wells of the region can be used as measure of the nonlinear characteristics of porous rock, revealing the underlying complexity. In this paper, we present values of correlation dimensions of the water level data in the bore wells using the nonlinear time series methodology. The spatiotemporal changes in the fractal dimensions have also been determined. The results show that hydro-seismically the region behaves as a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system.  相似文献   

9.
An earthquake of Mw 5.1 occurred on March 14, 2005, in the seismically active Koyna–Warna region in western India, the site known for the largest reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) in the world. For more than four decades, earthquakes with M  4.0 have occurred in this region at regular intervals. Impoundment of reservoirs and changes in lake levels can trigger earthquakes by two processes of stress modifications, namely direct loading effect of the reservoir and diffusion through various faults and fractures. In this paper we analysed the reservoir water level data at Koyna and Warna reservoirs prior to the occurrence of the March 14, 2005 earthquake, to explain the dominant mechanism behind its occurrence and its correlation with the observed coseismic changes. We conclude that the diffusion process, not the reservoir load effect, is the dominating mechanism triggering earthquakes in the region. The coseismic changes in deep well water levels sensitive to earth tides are found to be to the order of 1–12 cm.  相似文献   

10.
The Koyna earthquake of M 6.3 on December 10, 1967 is the largest artificial water reservoir triggered earthquake globally. It claimed ～ 200 human lives and devastated the Koyna township. Before the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar Lake created by the Koyna Dam, there were no earthquakes reported from the region. Initially a few stations were operated in the region by the CentralWater and Power Research Station (CWPRS). The seismic station network grew with time and currently the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad is operating 23 broadband seismographs and 6 bore hole seismic stations. Another reservoir, Warna, was created in 1985, which provided a further impetus to Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS). Every year following the monsoon, water levels rise in the two reservoirs and there is an immediate increase in triggered earthquakes in the vicinity of Koyna-Warna reservoirs in the months of August–September. Peak RTS is observed in September and later during December.Another spurt in triggered earthquakes is observed during the draining of the reservoirs in the months of April- May. A comparative study of RTS earthquake sequences and the ones occurring in nearby regions made it possible to identify four common characteristics of RTS sequences that discriminate them from normal earthquake sequences. As the RTS events continue to occur at Koyna in a large number in a limited area of 20 km x 30 km, at shallow depths (mostly 2 to 9 km), the region being accessible for all possible observations and there being no other source of earthquakes within 100 km of Koyna Dam, it was suggested to be an ideal site for near field observations of earthquakes. This suggestion was discussed by the global community at an ICDP sponsored workshop held at Hyderabad and Koyna in 2011. There was an unanimous agreement about the suitability of the site for deep scientific drilling; however, a few additional observations/experiments were suggested. These were carried out in the following three years and another ICDP workshop was held in 2014, which totally supported setting up a borehole laboratory for near field investigations at Koyna. Location of a Pilot Bore-hole was decided on the basis of seismic activity and other logistics. The 3 km deep Pilot Borehole was spudded on December 20, 2016 and completed on June 11, 2017.  相似文献   

11.
山西奇村井水汞动态的映震能力与特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
山西奇村水汞动态受忻定盆地区域水化学特征控制,水汞映震灵敏,对山西境内ML≥4.0级地震有很好的前兆异常反应。水汞异常多为短临异常,对地震的时间预测有较好的参考价值。水汞异常反应与地震活动水平、震源深度等相关。   相似文献   

12.
There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( Vp, Vs) and their ratio (Vp/Vs), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations.  相似文献   

13.
Water level fluctuations in twenty-one observation wells have been monitored for the last 10 years around the seismically active Koyna–Warna region, western India where earthquakes continue to occur even after four decades of the initiation of the seismic activity in the region. Fourteen of the observation wells act as volume strain meters as their water levels show earth tidal signals. Our analysis suggests three types of response of the well water levels to seismo-tectonic effects, i) one to local earthquakes, ii) to regional and teleseismic events, and iii) to local fluctuations in rock strain on regional scale. We observed five cases of co-seismic step-like well water level changes, of the order of few centimeters in amplitude, related to earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.2. All these earthquakes occurred within the network of wells drilled for the study and within 25 km distance of the recording wells. In three cases, drop in well levels preceded co-seismic step-like increases, which may be of premonitory nature. The second type of response is observed to be due to the passing of seismic waves from regional and teleseismic earthquakes like the M 7.7 Bhuj event on January 26, 2001 and the M 9.3 December 26, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. The third type is a well level anomaly of centimeter amplitude coherently occurring in several wells. The anomalies are similar in shape and last for several hours to days.From our studies we conclude that the wells in the network appear to respond to regional strain variations and transient changes due to distant earthquakes. The two factors which are important to co-seismic steps due to local earthquakes are the magnitude and epicentral distance. From the limited number of events we found that all local earthquakes exceeding M ≥ 4.3 have produced co-seismic changes. No such changes were observed for earthquakes below this magnitude threshold.  相似文献   

14.
Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.  相似文献   

15.
Koyna-Warna Region (KWR) is one of the known sites for reservoir triggered seismicity. The continued triggered seismicity over the five decades is restricted to a region of about 600–700 sq. km, which provides a unique opportunity to monitor geophysical anomalies likely to be associated with seismicity of the region. Present study confers temporal gravity changes recorded by gPhone and GRACE satellite and interprets observed changes in conjunction with seismological, geodetic (cGPS) observations and groundwater level measurements. GRACE data suggest that seasonal vertical deformation due to hydrological loading is ～ 2 cm, which corroborates with continuous GPS observations. Seasonal hydrological loading of the region, which is in a phase of reservoir loading, might be influencing the critically stressed KWR leading to the seasonal seismicity of the region. The gPhone gravity data distinctly show co-seismic gravity signals for eight earthquakes of Mw > 2 and gravity anomalies show positive correlation on a logarithmic scale with earthquake released energy. To investigate the cause of gravity changes, an estimate is made for 14th April 2012 earthquake for Mw 4.8 using fault dislocation model. The recorded gravity changes of 189 μGal by gPhone located at a distance of 28 km from the hypocentre is much more than the estimate of ～0.1 μGal calculated for Mw 4.8 Koyna earthquake. Therefore, it is inferred that co-seismic gravity signals for eight earthquakes are primarily caused due to redistribution of mass at shallow depth.  相似文献   

16.
The cause for prolific seismicity in the Koyna region is a geological enigma. Attempts have been made to link occurrence of these earthquakes with tectonic strain as well as the nearby reservoirs. With a view to providing reliable seismological database for studying the earth structure and the earthquake process in the Koyna region, a state of the art digital seismic network was deployed for twenty months during 1996–97. We present preliminary results from this experiment covering an area of 60 × 80 km2 with twenty seismic stations. Hypocentral locations of more than 400 earthquakes confined to 11×25 km2 reveal fragmentation in the seismicity pattern — a NE — SW segment has a dip towards NW at approximately 45°, whilst the other two segments show a near vertical trend. These seismic segments have a close linkage with the Western Ghat escarpment and the Warna fault. Ninety per cent of the seismicity is confined within the depth range of 3–10 km. The depth distribution of earthquakes delimits the seismogenic zone with its base at 10 km indicating a transition from an unstable to stable frictional sliding regime. The lack of shallow seismicity between 0 and 3 km indicates a mature fault system with well-developed gouge zones, which inhibit shallow earthquake nucleation. Local earthquake travel time inversion for P- and S-waves show ≈ 2% higher velocity in the seismogenic crust (0–10 km) beneath the epicentral tract relative to a lower velocity (2–3%) in the adjoining region. The high P- and S-wave velocity in the seismogenic crust argues against the presence of high pressure fluid zones and suggests its possible linkage with denser lithology. The zone of high velocity has been traced to deeper depths (≈ 70 km) through teleseismic tomography. The results reveal segmented and matured seismogenic fault systems in the Koyna region where seismicity is possibly controlled by strain build up due to competent lithology in the seismic zone with a deep crustal root.  相似文献   

17.
The status of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) has been reviewed periodically (Rothé, 1968, 1973; Gupta and Rastogi, 1976; Simpson, 1976; Packer et al., 1979). In the present paper, the significant work carried out during the last three years on RIS is reviewed.An earthquake of magnitude occurred on November 14, 1981 in the vicinity of Aswan Lake, Egypt, 17 years after the filling started in 1964. This event occurred 4 days after the seasonal maximum in the reservoir water level and was followed by a long sequence of aftershocks. Another event of magnitude occurred in the vicinity of Aswan Lake on August 20, 1982. Results of preliminary investigations indicate that this seismic activity is reservoir induced. Recent analyses of induced seismic events at Nurek Reservoir U.S.S.R., show that the second stage of filling during August to December 1976, increasing the maximum depth from 120 m to 200 m, was accompanied by an intense burst of shallow seismic activity. An outward migration from the centre of the reservoir, possibly associated with diffusion of pore pressure, is revealed by the temporal distribution of earthquake foci. A variety of investigations including the in situ measurement of tectonic stress, pore pressure, permeability, distribution of faults, etc., in addition to monitoring seismicity, have been undertaken in the vicinity of the Monticello Reservoir, South Carolina. The largest reservoir induced earthquake is predicted not to exceed magnitude 5.The Koyna Reservoir, India, continues to be the most outstanding example of RIS. Three earthquakes of magnitude 5 occurred in September 1980. Earthquakes of magnitude 4 occur frequently in the vicinity of Koyna, the latest being on February 5, 1983. Events that occurred during the period 1967–1973 have been relocated using better procedures and are found to be much shallower and the epicentres less diffused. Location of 12 earthquakes of Ms 4.0, their foreshocks and aftershocks, that occurred during 1973–1976, composite focal mechanism solutions and related studies are consistent with the delineation of a N-S trending fault through the reservoir area. In a couple of interesting studies it has been demonstrated that earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 in the Koyna region are usually preceded by several magnitude 4 earthquakes in the preceding fortnight. Also, a rate of loading of Koyna reservoir of at least 40 ft/week appears to be a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the occurrence of magnitude 5 earthquakes. Smooth filling/emptying appears to be the key to reduce the hazard of RIS.A map and a table of the reported cases of reservoir induced changes in seismicity through 1982 have been compiled.  相似文献   

18.
The filling of the Koyna reservoir in western India and the associated triggered earthquakes have been well documented. Several studies have suggested that earthquakes are triggered on pre-existing faults in the region due to changes in pore pressure caused by pore pressure diffusion. To study in-situ pore pressure variations twenty-one borewells were drilled in the Koyna-Warna region under an Indo-German research program during 1995–1998. In most of these wells tidal signals are observed in well level variations indicating sensitivity to small strain changes in hydraulically connected, confined aquifers. Those signals, hence, are suitable to reflect variations in the stress field of local rock formations. More than a decade of well level monitoring has shown four types of earthquake related changes. The pre- and post-earthquake changes are mostly interpretative in nature and difficult to substantiate. The co-seismic and transient changes which are observed for local and large teleseismic events are well established. Wells connected to unconfined aquifers also showed changes related to seismicity in case of large magnitude earthquakes at closer distances. Some anomalous water level fluctuations are seen which are not associated with local or teleseismic earthquakes. These changes are coherent in nature and reflect aseismic regional volume strain.  相似文献   

19.
The continued reservoir-triggered seismicity for five decades in Koyna area has been attributed to southward migration of seismicity (during 1967–1992 near and south of Koyna dam and from 1993 onwards mostly near the new Warna reservoir). Spread of seismicity in the vicinity of reservoirs is attributed to pore-pressure diffusion. Moderate size Koyna–Warna earthquakes are found to nucleate at shallow depth (≤ 3 km) due to pore pressure caused by water level fluctuation of reservoir(s). The nucleation zone deepens along the critically stressed permeable fault zone to cause the occurrence of mainshock at the base of seismogenic layer (i.e. 5–10 km). The clustering of foreshocks up to 500 hr prior to several moderate size Koyna earthquakes of magnitude Mw 4–5 has been detected and used for quantifying the nucleation process. A static stress transfer by means of cascade model from one foreshock to next for the generation of foreshocks has been proposed for nucleation model. The nucleation process can be considered as an immediate earthquake precursor for the Koyna-Warna region.  相似文献   

20.
At trenches a few earthquake swarms of low magnitude have been observed before the medium size earthquake swarms. The first swarm was designated as precursory swarm and the second as mainshocks. Seismicity fluctuations before six such mainshocks events of medium size earthquakes of magnitudes ranging from 5.3 to 6.1 occurring in the east belt of Taiwan region have been discussed. A precursory gap between the precursory swarm and mainshock events has been observed. The duration of the gaps increases with magnitudes of the mainshocks suggesting a causal relationship between the two. Regression equations between the largest magnitude in the precursory swarms, the largest mainshock magnitude and the precusory gaps have been given.  相似文献   

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