共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 203 毫秒
1.
After living one of the most intense metal price cycles, several ongoing macroeconomic phenomena with the potential of structurally redefining the long-run supply and demand for metals, and raising divergency regarding where the metal prices are trending, it is suitable to evaluate the dynamics in the metal prices, especially focus on the long cyclical components. This article studies in detail the cyclical components of the real prices of base metals, iron ore, and gold, applying band-pass filters and a novel decomposition over time series with length as far as 1800. The main findings are: (1) the long cyclical components in real prices are highly correlated among them and with the proposed long economic cycles, (2) short and medium cyclical components are more relevant in explaining the price deviations from their trend, but the long cyclical component is not negligible, (3) co-movement in base metals is strong for all the cyclical components, but decreasing as cyclical frequency increases, and (4) prices are either sideways or upward-trending depending on the assumptions for correction of the US Consumer Price Index, which suggests that the supply side of these industries, in the best case, only offset the cost increases by depletion.
相似文献2.
Alberto E. Patiño Douce 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):71-90
Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials. 相似文献
3.
Based upon a large database, this paper analyzes the record of bauxite mine production, exploration success, and resource depletion and evaluates the availability of bauxite reserves in the near future. The record clearly shows that for the past 50 years world bauxite production rose by an annual increase of over 5% while per capita consumption rose during the same period by about 4%. Time trends of the world bauxite reserve life index (RLI); that is, known world reserves of a given year divided by world production of the same year, are episodic and seem to follow bauxite price cycles. The present-day RLI indicates adequate bauxite supply for about 180 years and is the same as it was in 1950. However, if an annual growth rate of 5% is considered, the currently known reserves will be exhausted within the next 20 years and the reserve base will be adequate for not more than 25 years. This scenario is based, of course, on the unrealistic assumption that future exploration efforts fail to discover additional reserves. Evaluation of the quality, in terms of bauxite signatures, and quantity of presently known bauxite prospects that may be mined in future suggests that there is sufficient potential for adequate bauxite supply for the next 20 to 25 years at least. Bauxite signatures cover a wide range of values that allows selection of the most favorable bauxite prospects for future mining, both in economic as well as environmental terms. Although, there is the general believe that the world abundance of bauxite resources will ensure sufficient supply to meet future demands significant additional reserves have to be discovered if exponential growth rates continue. As the question of future bauxite supply is subject to economic and geologic principles one has to take into consideration that increasing exploration maturity in many mineral provinces will make it difficult to locate additional bauxite reserves and that decreasing real commodity prices will influence the level of investment in bauxite exploration. 相似文献
4.
The mining of primary metals is critical for a range of modern infrastructure and goods and the continuing growth in global population and consumption means that these primary metals are expected to remain in high demand. However, metallic deposits are, in essence, finite and non-renewable—leading to some concern that we may run out of a given metal in the future. Here, we address this concern by presenting a brief review of the reporting of mineral resource estimates, compiling detailed datasets for national and global trends in mineral resources for numerous metals, and present detailed case studies of major mining projects or fields. The evidence clearly shows strong growth in known mineral resources and cumulative production over time rather than any evidence of gradual resource depletion. In addition, the key factors that already govern existing mining projects and mineral resources are certainly social, environmental and economic in nature rather than geological or related to physical resource depletion. Overall, there is great room for optimism in terms of humankind’s ability to supply future generations with the metals they will require. 相似文献
5.
Edmund Nickless 《Natural Resources Research》2018,27(2):143-158
The last 50 years saw a dramatic increase in living standards and improvement in the quality of life for many of the world’s poorest. Mortality rates fell, life expectancy rose and per capita incomes swelled. That improvement has been underpinned by technological development and the ubiquitous use of metal and mineral resources. To maintain such progress while addressing climate change and a rising world population, sustainable sources of raw materials will be required, in both developed and developing countries. Delivering the UN Agenda 2030 with its seventeen Sustainable Development Goals and implementing the Paris Agreement of December 2015 will require technologies that consume both traditional and new minerals. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future. Of the 200 or so countries in the world, 60 are open to large-scale mining but 140 are not. New resource governance linkages are needed between existing institutional frameworks so that continuity of global mineral supply is assured over coming decades. Such arrangements would oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, directions of mineral exploration and sustainability of mining and ore processing, raising of consumer awareness and sharing the wealth generated by mining more fairly. 相似文献
6.
The Rare Earth Elements: Demand,Global Resources,and Challenges for Resourcing Future Generations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The rare earth elements (REE) have attracted much attention in recent years, being viewed as critical metals because of China’s domination of their supply chain. This is despite the fact that REE enrichments are known to exist in a wide range of settings, and have been the subject of much recent exploration. Although the REE are often referred to as a single group, in practice each individual element has a specific set of end-uses, and so demand varies between them. Future demand growth to 2026 is likely to be mainly linked to the use of NdFeB magnets, particularly in hybrid and electric vehicles and wind turbines, and in erbium-doped glass fiber for communications. Supply of lanthanum and cerium is forecast to exceed demand. There are several different types of natural (primary) REE resources, including those formed by high-temperature geological processes (carbonatites, alkaline rocks, vein and skarn deposits) and those formed by low-temperature processes (placers, laterites, bauxites and ion-adsorption clays). In this paper, we consider the balance of the individual REE in each deposit type and how that matches demand, and look at some of the issues associated with developing these deposits. This assessment and overview indicate that while each type of REE deposit has different advantages and disadvantages, light rare earth-enriched ion adsorption types appear to have the best match to future REE needs. Production of REE as by-products from, for example, bauxite or phosphate, is potentially the most rapid way to produce additional REE. There are still significant technical and economic challenges to be overcome to create substantial REE supply chains outside China. 相似文献
7.
近年来有关温室气体,特别是CO2浓度上升导致的全球气候变暖将引起灾难性后果的理论,已成为全球关注和讨论的重点.本研究通过分析和总结器测资料和最近2000 a来温度序列,得出如下观点和结论：1）全球变暖是客观存在的,但是全球升温的幅度存在不确定性;2）人类活动和自然因素共同影响着气候变暖,仅从自然因素方面考虑未来存在降温的可能,因此未来温度的变化趋势很难预测;3）过去2000 a来冷暖变化频繁交替,最近100 a来的升温速率是否是过去2000 a中最大的时期存在不确定性.因此,在得出明确结论之前,需要进一步加大研究力度,明确这些不确定性. 相似文献
8.
Multiscale simulation of fluvio‐deltaic stratigraphy was used to quantify the elements of the geometry and architectural arrangement of sub‐seismic‐scale fluvial‐to‐shelf sedimentary segments. We conducted numerical experiments of fluvio‐deltaic system evolution by simulating the accommodation‐to‐sediment‐supply (A/S) cycles of varying wavelength and amplitude with the objective to produce synthetic 3‐D stratigraphic records. Post‐processing routines were developed in order to investigate delta lobe architecture in relation to channel‐network evolution throughout A/S cycles, estimate net sediment accumulation rates in 3‐D space, and extract chronostratigraphically constrained lithosomes (or chronosomes) to quantify large‐scale connectivity, that is, the spatial distribution of high net‐to‐gross lithologies. Chronosomes formed under the conditions of channel‐belt aggradation are separated by laterally continuous abandonment surfaces associated with major avulsions and delta‐lobe switches. Chronosomes corresponding to periods in which sea level drops below the inherited shelf break, that is, the youngest portions of the late falling stage systems tract (FSST), form in the virtual absence of major avulsions, owing to the incision in their upstream parts, and thus display purely degradational architecture. Detailed investigation of chronosomes within the late FSST showed that their spatial continuity may be disrupted by higher‐frequency A/S cycles to produce “stranded” sand‐rich bodies encased in shales. Chronosomes formed during early and late falling stage (FSST) demonstrate the highest large‐scale connectivity in their proximal and distal areas, respectively. Lower‐amplitude base level changes, representative of greenhouse periods during which the shelf break is not exposed, increase the magnitude of delta‐lobe switching and favour the development of system‐wide abandonment surfaces, whose expression in real‐world stratigraphy is likely to reflect the intertwined effects of high‐frequency allogenic forcing and differential subsidence. 相似文献
9.
Hannah L. Owens 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(12):1339-1345
Increases in sea surface temperature have led to distributional changes in many commercially exploited fish species. These changes have already led to conflict over mackerel fisheries, arising from demand for fair resource apportionment and desire to manage the fishery sustainably. In order to develop adaptable management strategies for complex ocean fishery systems, policymakers and researchers must move beyond a reactive producer–consumer relationship to develop proactive, supportive collaborations. The history of U.S. national fisheries management is presented as an example of this transition. Building cooperative capacity over the last two centuries has lead to a more systematic understanding of the oceans, and has led to success in reducing the number of overfished stocks. Similar development of cooperation between policymakers and researchers on an international scale may be the surest way to develop management strategies adaptable enough to withstand challenges posed by future climate change. 相似文献
10.
Steven J. Balogh Daniel R. Engstrom James E. Almendinger Charlene McDermott Jie Hu Yabing H. Nollet Michael L. Meyer D. Kent Johnson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(4):623-639
Sediment cores from Lake Pepin, a natural lake on the Upper Mississippi River, reveal the historical trends in trace metal
use and discharge in the watershed. Lead-210 dated concentration profiles of trace metals (Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, V, Zn)
in sediment cores from throughout the lake generally showed low and stable concentrations prior to settlement (circa 1830),
peak concentrations between 1940 and 1975, and substantial decreases thereafter. Whole-lake sediment accumulation rates increased
greatly over the period of record, from 79,000 metric tons year−1 prior to 1830, to 876,000 metric tons year−1 during the 1990s. Whole-lake accumulation rates of most trace metals peaked in the 1960s but decreased sharply after that.
Sediment and trace metal accumulation rates decreased in the downstream direction, and approximately two-thirds of the sediment
and trace metal mass accumulated in Lake Pepin since 1800 was deposited in the upper 30% (by area) of the lake. The dramatic
declines in trace metal concentrations and accumulation rates in Lake Pepin sediments since 1970 coincide with increased pollution
control and prevention efforts throughout the watershed, including the implementation of secondary treatment at a large municipal
wastewater treatment plant upstream.
This is one of eight papers dedicated to the “Recent Environmental History of the Upper Mississippi River” published in this
special issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology. D.R. Engstrom served as guest editor of the special issue. 相似文献
11.
2019年4~10月,以博斯腾湖西岸表面流人工湿地为研究对象,测定该人工湿地的进水口、出水口采样点水体中的重金属离子含量,利用进水口和出水口水体中Mn、Fe、Cu、Zn、Cd、Ni、As和Cd离子含量,计算人工湿地对这些水体中重金属离子的去除率。研究结果表明,博斯腾湖西岸表面流人工湿地对水体中Fe离子、Mn离子、Cu离子、Zn离子、Ni离子、Cr离子、As离子和Cd离子的去除率分别为84.63%、57.24%、52.82%、47.44%、44.74%、42.42%、41.94%和33.33%;夏季人工湿地对水体中重金属离子的去除率大于春季和秋季。 相似文献
12.
The study was conducted to quantify the concentration and distribution of metals (Cd, Zn, Ni, Cu, Pb, and Fe) in the surface sediments and to assess the status of metal contaminations in the Klang River, Malaysia. The concentrations of metals (μg∕g, Fe%, dry weight) were as follows: 0.57-2.19 μg∕g Cd; 31.89-272.33 μg∕g Zn; 5.96-24.47 μg∕g Ni; 10.57-52.87 μg∕g Cu; 24.23-64.11 μg∕g Pb and 1.56%-3.03% Fe. Sequential extraction technique (SET) showed that mean anthropogenic portions of metals were in the order of Zn (60.22%), Cu (56.01%), Cd (45.63%), Ni (42.08%), Pb (33.22%) and Fe (10.26%). The highest concentrations of metals ( p<0.05) were found in the stations located close to industrial parks and highly populated areas. The results of the present study showed that the effectiveness of total organic carbon (TOC) contents in controlling the distribution and enrichment of metals was a more important factor compared to grain size. The study also indicated that the control of metals pollution from direct influx of domestic wastes and insufficiently treated industrial wastes in the Klang River was an important and desirable way to minimize the detrimental effects of metals. 相似文献
13.
14.
Alberto E. Patiño Douce 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):97-124
Supplying worldwide demand of metallic raw materials throughout the rest of this century may require 5–10 times the amount of metals contained in known ore deposits. This demand can be met only if mineral deposits containing the required masses of metals, in excess of present day ore reserves, exist in the Earth’s crust. It is, by definition, not known whether or not such mineral deposits exist. On the basis of the statistical distribution of metal tonnages contained in known ore deposits, however, it is possible to place constraints on the size distribution of the deposits that must be discovered in order to meet the expected demand. A nondimensional analysis of the distribution of metal tonnages in deposits of 20 metals shows that most of them follow distributions that, although not strictly lognormal, share important characteristics with a lognormal distribution. Chief among these is the observation that frequency falls off symmetrically and geometrically with deposit size, relative to a median deposit size that is approximately equal to the geometric mean deposit size. An immediate consequence of this behavior is that most of the metal endowment is concentrated in deposits that are several orders of magnitude larger than the median deposit size, and that are much rarer than the most common deposits that cluster around the median deposit size. The analysis reveals remarkable similarities among the statistical distributions of most of the metals included in this study, in particular, the fact that distribution of most metals can be fully described with essentially the same value (about 2–3) of the scale parameter, σ, which is the only parameter needed to describe the behavior of a normalized lognormal variable. This observation makes it possible to derive the following general conclusions, which are applicable to most metals—both scarce and abundant. First, it is unlikely that undiscovered mineral deposits of sizes comparable to those that contain most of the known metal endowment exist in sufficient quantities to supply the expected worldwide demand throughout the rest of this century. Second, if the expected demand is to be met, one must hope that very large deposits, perhaps up to one order of magnitude larger than the largest known deposits, exist in accessible portions of the Earth’s crust, and that these deposits are discovered. 相似文献
15.
鸟类在湿地生态系统监测与评价中的应用 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
湿地是鸟类的聚居地,一方面湿地为鸟类提供了不可替代的生境,另一方面鸟类的分布、数量、繁殖、生理等特征对湿地所承受的种种干扰有所响应。因而鸟类可以作为湿地生态系统监测与评价的指标。从湿地植被、湿地水环境、湿地生物多样性、湿地污染、湿地生态系统监测与评价几方面论述了鸟类作为指示生物的作用。鸟类是湿地中主要的顶级消费者,其生存与低营养级生物乃至无机环境密切相关,而且所处营养级与人类更接近,所以鸟类作为指示生物不仅适于快速的生态系统水平的评价,也对人类所面临的环境风险有参考价值。在未来的湿地生态系统监测与评价中,繁殖分布范围大的鸟类、顶级肉食性鸟类应当受到足够的重视。 相似文献
16.
Recent Environmental Change and Human Impact on Svalbard: The Lake-Sediment Geochemical Record 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
As part of a broader investigation into recent environmental change on Svalbard, the inorganic geochemical record of six lake-sediment cores was analysed. The major temporal trends in sediment elemental composition are driven by variations in two contrasting sediment components, both derived from catchment soils: (1) mineral matter, and (2) soil organic matter (SOM), enriched in Fe and Mn oxides and heavy metals. Two environmental impacts are recorded in most or all of the lake sediment sequences. An up-core increase in organic matter can be partly attributed to diagenetic effects, but also requires an enhanced supply of SOM relative to mineral matter. In addition, the central and southern sites all show a ca. 1970 event characterised by an enhanced mineral matter accumulation rate. This requires either an enhanced allochthonous supply or an enhanced mobilisation of littoral sediments. In either case a regional-scale driving force, such as a shift in climate, is required. At five of the lakes the sediment heavy metal concentration profiles can be explained entirely by natural factors. However, at Tenndammen (U), situated close to the Svalbard’s largest settlement at Longyearbyen, possible anthropogenic Pb enrichment is found. Comparison of observed and expected heavy metal profiles (based on Greenland ice-core data) shows that the lakes are generally too insensitive to have recorded a long-transported heavy metal pollution signal. 相似文献
17.
Quantifying the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across plantation forests is central in deriving accurate and reliable knowledge and understanding of the extent to which these species contribute to the global carbon cycle and towards minimizing climate change effects. The principal objective of this study was to quantify the variability and allocation patterns of aboveground carbon stocks across Pinus and Eucalyptus plantation forests, tree-structural attributes (i.e. stems, barks, branches and leaves) and age groups, using models developed based on remotely sensed data. The results of this study demonstrate that aboveground carbon stocks significantly (α = 0.05) vary across different plantation forest species types, structural attributes and age. Pinus taeda and Eucalyptus grandis species contained aboveground carbon stocks above 110 t C ha−1, and Eucalyptus dunii had 20 t C ha−1. Across plantation forest tree structural attributes, stems contained the highest aboveground carbon stocks, when compared to barks, branches and leaves. Aboveground carbon stock estimates also varied significantly (α = 0.05) with stand age. Mature plantation forest species (i.e. between 7 and 20 years) contained the highest aboveground carbon stock estimates of approximately 120 t C ha−1, when compared to younger species (i.e. between 3 and 6 years), which had approximately 20 t C ha−1. The map of aboveground carbon stocks showed distinct spatial patterns across the entire study area. The findings of this study are important for understanding the contribution of different plantation forest species, structural attributes and age in the global carbon cycle and possible climate change moderation measures. Also, this study demonstrates that data on vital tree structural attributes, previously difficult to obtain, can now be easily derived from cheap and readily-available satellite data for inventorying carbon stocks variability. 相似文献
18.
Anne-Lise Mariet Fabrice Monna Frédéric Gimbert Carole Bégeot Christophe Cloquet Simon Belle Laurent Millet Damien Rius Anne-Véronique Walter-Simonnet 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2018,60(3):399-412
A 157-cm-long sediment core from Longemer Lake in the Vosges Mountains of France spans the past two millennia and was analyzed for trace metal content and lead isotope composition. Trace metal accumulation rates highlight three main input phases: Roman Times (cal. 100 BC–AD 400), the Middle Ages (cal. AD 1000–1500), and the twentieth century. Atmospheric contamination displays a pattern that is similar to that seen in peat bogs from the region, at least until the eighteenth century. Thereafter, the lake sediment record is more precise than peat records. Some regional mining activity, such as that in archaeologically identified eighteenth-century mining districts, was detected from the lead isotope composition of sediment samples. Compositional data analysis, using six trace metals (silver, arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead and zinc), enabled us to distinguish between background conditions, periods of mining, and of other anthropogenic trace metal emissions, such as the recent use of leaded gasoline. 相似文献
19.
20.
Historical trace metal loading to a large river recorded in the sediments of Lake St. Croix,USA 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Steven J. Balogh Laura D. Triplett Daniel R. Engstrom Yabing H. Nollet 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(2):517-530
The global cycling of anthropogenic trace metals intensified during the twentieth century, impacting aquatic systems throughout
the world. There are, however, few quantitative records showing the history of this contamination in large rivers. Here we
present a well-dated sedimentary record of trace metal accumulation in Lake St. Croix, a natural riverine lake on the St.
Croix River (Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA), revealing the history of heavy metal inputs to the river over the past 200 years.
Concentrations of Hg, Pb, Ag, Cd, Cr and Zn and stable Pb isotopes were measured in eight 210Pb-dated sediment cores collected from profundal depositional areas throughout the lake. Time trends of trace metal concentrations
and accumulation rates differed greatly between the upper lake (above Valley Creek) and the lower lake, reflecting contrasting
sediment sources along the flow axis of the lake. For most of the study period (1800–2000 AD), sediment deposited throughout
the lake derived almost exclusively from the suspended sediment load carried by the main-stem river into the lake. From 1910
through 1970, however, large inputs of eroded soils and stream channel sediments from side-valley tributaries resulted in
greatly increased sediment and trace metal accumulation in the lower lake. Anthropogenic accumulation rates of Hg, Pb, Cd,
Zn, and Ag in the upper lake correlate well with those from Square Lake, a small, relatively undisturbed nearby lake that
has received trace metal inputs almost exclusively via atmospheric deposition. The similarity of these records suggests that
atmospheric deposition was primarily responsible for trace metal accumulation trends in upper Lake St. Croix. Trace metal
accumulation in the lower lake was also strongly influenced by atmospherically derived inputs, but metal contributions from
native soils were important, as well, during the period of elevated sediment inputs from side-valley tributaries. Concentrations
and accumulation rates of trace metals in both upper and lower lake sediments have decreased substantially since the 1970s
due to decreased atmospheric inputs and sediment loadings, but accumulation rates remain well above pre-settlement values.
Metal inputs to Lake St. Croix have been far lower than those to nearby Lake Pepin, located on the Mississippi River downstream
of the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area, but there nevertheless remains a clear record of anthropogenic impact on the
relatively pristine St. Croix River. 相似文献