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1.
We employ the JPL long ephemeris DE-102 to study the inertial motion of the Sun for the period A.D. 760–2100. Defining solar orbits with reference to the Sun's successive close approaches to the solar system barycenter, occurring at mean intervals of 19.86 yr, we find simple relationships linking the inertial orientation of the solar orbit and the amplitude of the precessional rotation of the orbit with the occurrence of the principal prolonged solar activity minima of the current millenium (the Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder minima). The progression of the inertial orientation parameter is controlled by the 900-yr great inequality of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn, while the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965). A new prolonged minimum of solar activity may be imminent. 相似文献
2.
We summarize our experimental data on radiocarbon variations in tree rings covering the last several hundred years. Special attention was devoted to the Maunder Minimum of solar activity which is displayed in 14C. It is shown that the modulation of galactic cosmic rays at Wolf numbersW 0 does really exist and that the 22-yr periodicity at that period is more pronounced than the 11-yr periodicity. The properties of future theoretical models of solar activity are briefly discussed. 相似文献
3.
Yu. A. Nagovitsyn 《Astronomy Letters》2007,33(5):340-345
We have obtained new consistent versions of the 400-yr time series of the Wolf sunspot number W, the sunspot group number G, and the total sunspot area S (or the total sunspot magnetic flux Φ). We show that the 11-yr cycle did not cease during the Maunder minimum of solar activity. The characteristics of the extrema of individual 11-yr cycles in 1600–2005 have been determined in terms of the total sunspot area index. We provide arguments for using alternating (“magnetic”) time series of indices in investigating the solar cyclicity. 相似文献
4.
The amplitude of the 11-year cycle measured in the cosmogenic isotope 10Be during the Maunder Minimum is comparable to that during the recent epoch of high solar activity. Because of the virtual absence of the cyclic variability of sunspot activity during the Maunder Minimum this seemingly contradicts an intuitive expectation that lower activity would result in smaller solar-cycle variations in cosmogenic radio-isotope data, or in none, leading to confusing and misleading conclusions. It is shown here that large 11-year solar cycles in cosmogenic data observed during periods of suppressed sunspot activity do not necessarily imply strong heliospheric fields. Normal-amplitude cycles in the cosmogenic radio-isotopes observed during the Maunder Minimum are consistent with theoretical expectations because of the nonlinear relation between solar activity and isotope production. Thus, cosmogenic-isotope data provide a good tool to study solar-cycle variability even during grand minima of solar activity. 相似文献
5.
6.
Electromagnetic radiation from the Sun is Earths primary energy source. Space-based radiometric measurements in the past two decades have begun to establish the nature, magnitude and origins of its variability. An 11-year cycle with peak-to-peak amplitude of order 0.1 % is now well established in recent total solar irradiance observations, as are larger variations of order 0.2 % associated with the Suns 27-day rotation period. The ultraviolet, visible and infrared spectral regions all participate in these variations, with larger changes at shorter wavelengths. Linkages of solar radiative output variations with solar magnetism are clearly identified. Active regions alter the local radiance, and their wavelength-dependent contrasts relative to the quiet Sun control the relative spectrum of irradiance variability. Solar radiative output also responds to sub-surface convection and to eruptive events on the Sun. On the shortest time scales, total irradiance exhibits five minute fluctuations of amplitude
%, and can increase to as much as 0.015 % during the very largest solar flares. Unknown is whether multi-decadal changes in solar activity produce longer-term irradiance variations larger than observed thus far in the contemporary epoch. Empirical associations with solar activity proxies suggest reduced total solar irradiance during the anomalously low activity in the seventeenth century Maunder Minimum relative to the present. Uncertainties in understanding the physical relationships between direct magnetic modulation of solar radiative output and heliospheric modulation of cosmogenic proxies preclude definitive historical irradiance estimates, as yet.Received: 26 August 2004, Published online: 16 November 2004
Correspondence to: Claus Fröhlich 相似文献
7.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region, influencing storm tracks and creating a dipole pattern of precipitation from north to south across Western Europe. This distinct spatial distribution of precipitation provides a framework that can be potentially used to identify and reconstruct patterns of past NAO-forced climate variability. In this study we use tree-ring width series from Western Europe, in conjunction with principal components analysis and advanced spectral methods, to prospect for quasi-periodic climate signals that are forced by the NAO. We identify a robust 25-yr anti-phased synchronization in climate variability between Scandinavia and the Mediterranean during the 17th–20th centuries. The amplitude of the 25-yr beat displays a long-term modulation in northern and southern Europe, with minimum amplitude during the late Maunder Minimum. This amplitude minimum coincides with a maximum in Δ14C, suggesting a potential solar or oceanic influence on the intensity of the 25-yr band of quasi-periodic variability. 相似文献
8.
Yu. I. Vitinsky 《Solar physics》1978,57(2):475-478
Arguments are presented in favour of the operation of the 11-yr cycle during the Maunder minimum and before it. The laws of differential rotation (1642–1644 and 1899–1901) before the low cycle are shown to differ insignificantly. It is suggested that the Maunder minimum was a result of the 600-yr cycle effect (during its epoch of minimum) on the 80–90 yr cycle. 相似文献
9.
The analysis of the daily measurements of the coronal green line intensity, which have been extensively tested for homogeneity and freedom of trends observed at the Pic-du-Midi observatory during the period 1944–1974, has revealed some characteristic asymmetric variations. A north-south asymmetry of the green line intensity is the main feature of the period 1949–1971 while a south-north one is obvious within 1972–1974 and the minor statistical significance span 1944–1948. On the other hand a significant W-E asymmetry has been confirmed in the whole period 1944–1974. It is noteworthy that the period 1949–1971, where the N-S asymmetry takes place consists a 22-yr solar cycle which starts from the epoch of the solar magnetic field inversion of the solar cycle No. 18 and terminates in the relevant epoch of the cycle No. 20.The combination of N-S and S-N asymmetry with a W-E one makes the NW solar-quarter to appear as the most active of all in the 22-yr cycle 1949–1971, while in the periods 1944–1948 and 1972–1974 the SW quarter is the most active. Finally, from the polar distribution of the green line intensity has been derived that the maximum values of the asymmetries occur in heliocentric sectors ± 10°–20° far from the solar equator on both sides of the central meridian.Physical mechanisms which could contribute to the creation of both N-S and E-W asymmetries of the solar activity and the green line intensity as an accompanied event, like different starting time of an 11-yr solar cycle in the two solar hemispheres, the motion of the Sun towards the Apex, and short-lived active solar longitudes formed by temporal clustering of solar active centers, have been discussed. 相似文献
10.
Paul C. Simon 《Solar physics》1981,74(1):273-291
The solar ultraviolet irradiance measurements in the 120–400 nm wavelength range are reviewed and compared showing still important discrepancies between the irradiance values deduced from the most recent observations.The possible variations of the solar ultraviolet irradiances with the 27-day rotation period of the Sun and with the 11-year activity cycle are presented and discussed on the basis of the available irradiation fluxes obtained during the rising phase of solar cycle 21.The spectral features of both kinds of variation are clearly related to the solar atmospheric layer from which the corresponding radiation is emitted.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands. 相似文献
11.
K. F. Tapping D. Boteler P. Charbonneau A. Crouch A. Manson H. Paquette 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):309-326
We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this
is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit
nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F
10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy
and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate
F
10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F
10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade
model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus
a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir
feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting
errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m−2 lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle. 相似文献
12.
Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as 10Be in ice cores and 14C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the 10Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse–linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse–linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for reconstructing SSNs during individual solar cycles based on 10Be in ice cores. This, in turn, represents a new window for studying short-term changes in solar activity on unprecedented timescales, which may help improve our understanding of the solar dynamo. 相似文献
13.
Solar activity alternates between active and quiet phases with an average period of 11?years, and this is known as the Schwabe cycle. Additionally, solar activity occasionally falls into a prolonged quiet phase (grand solar minimum), as represented by the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century, when sunspots were almost absent for 70?years and the length of the Schwabe cycle increased to 14?years. To examine the consistency of the cycle length characteristics during the grand solar minima, the carbon-14 contents in single-year tree rings were measured using an accelerator mass spectrometer as an index of the solar variability during the grand solar minimum of the 4th century BC. The signal of the Schwabe cycle was detected with a statistical confidence level of higher than 95?% by wavelet analysis. This is the oldest evidence for the Schwabe cycle at the present time, and the cycle length is considered to have increased to approximately 16?years during the grand solar minimum of the 4th century BC. This result confirms the association between the increase of the Schwabe cycle length and the weakening of solar activity, and indicates the possible prolonged absence of sunspots in the 4th century BC as during the Maunder Minimum. Theoretical implications from solar dynamo theory are discussed in order to identify the trigger of prolonged sunspot absence. A possible association between the long-term solar variation around the 4th century BC and terrestrial cooling in this period is also discussed. 相似文献
14.
The modulation model of the solar magnetic cycle for the time interval from 1650 to 1996 A.D. describes an harmonic oscillator with a basic (22.13 ± 0.05)-yr period, which is subjected to amplitude and phase variations that can be represented by a sum of trigonometric series. The simulated sunspot data explain 97.9% of cycle peak height variance and the residual standard deviation is 8.6 mean annual sunspots. A peak height of 139 for cycle 23 occurring in 2001 is predicted, whereas cycle 24 would have a maximum around 132 in 2014. Simulation of the sunspot numbers from 1000 until 2400 A.D. shows that the model recreates recurring minima (Maunder and Spörer Minimum). The prediction also expects a high level of amplitude modulation in the interval 1950–2010 with a rapid decrease afterwards. A greatly reduced cycle activity is reproduced by the simulation from about 2065 to 2100 A.D. No direct explanation of the long-term periodicities of the model can be advanced. The high-frequency contribution of the phase modulation, which accounts for the skewness of the solar cycle, shows coincidences with the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn, but no physical basis for the matching periodicities can be conceived. 相似文献
15.
A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R
z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F
10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field. 相似文献
16.
The purpose of the present communication is to identify the short-term (few tens of months) periodicities of several solar indices (sunspot number, Caii area and K index, Lyman , 2800 MHz radio emission, coronal green-line index, solar magnetic field). The procedure used was: from the 3-month running means (3m) the 37-month running means (37m) were subtracted, and the factor (3m – 37m) was examined for several parameters. For solar indices, considerable fluctuations were seen during the ± 4 years around sunspot maxima of cycles 18–23, and virtually no fluctuations were seen in the ± 2 years around sunspot minima. The spacings between successive peaks were irregular but common for various solar indices. Assuming that there are stationary periodicities, a spectral analysis was carried out which indicated periodicities of months: 5.1–5.7, 6.2–7.0, 7.6–7.9, 8.9–9.6, 10.4–12.0, 12.8–13.4, 14.5–17.5, 22–25, 28 (QBO), 31–36 (QBO), 41–47 (QTO). The periodicities of 1.3 year (15.6 months) and 1.7 years (20.4 months) often mentioned in the literature were seen neither often nor prominently. Other periodicities occurred more often and more prominently. For the open magnetic flux estimated by Wang, Lean, and Sheeley (2000) and Wang and Sheeley (2002), it was noticed that the variations were radically different at different solar latitudes. The open flux for < 45 solar latitudes had variations very similar (parallel) to the sunspot cycle, while open flux for > 45 solar latitudes had variations anti-parallel to the sunspot cycle. The open fluxes, interplanetary magnetic field and cosmic rays, all showed periodicities similar to those of solar indices. Many peaks (but not all) matched, indicating that the open flux for < 45 solar latitudes was at least partially an adequate carrier of the solar characteristics to the interplanetary space and thence for galactic cosmic ray modulation. 相似文献
17.
Although solar ultraviolet (UV) irradiance measurements have been made regularly from satellite instruments for almost 20 years, only one complete solar cycle minimum has been observed during this period. Solar activity is currently moving through the minimum phase between cycles 22 and 23, so it is of interest to compare recent data taken from the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument with data taken by the same instrument during the previous solar minimum in 1985–1986. NOAA-9 SBUV/2 is the first instrument to make continuous solar UV measurements for a complete solar cycle. Direct irradiance measurements (e.g., 205 nm) from NOAA-9 are currently useful for examining short-term variations, but have not been corrected for long-term instrument sensitivity changes. We use the Mgii proxy index to illustrate variability on solar cycle time scales, and to provide complementary information on short-term variability. Comparisons with contemporaneous data from Nimbus-7 SBUV (1985–1986) and UARS SUSIM (1994–1995) are used to validate the results obtained from the NOAA-9 data. Current short-term UV activity differs from the cycle 21–22 minimum. Continuous 13-day periodicity was observed from September 1994 to March 1995, a condition which has only been seen previously for shorter intervals during rising or maximum activity levels. The 205 nm irradiance and Mgii index are expected to track very closely on short time scales, but show differences in behavior during the minimum between cycles 22 and 23. 相似文献
18.
Ann T. Mecherikunnel 《Solar physics》1998,177(1-2):11-23
Simultaneous solar total irradiance observations performed by absolute radiometers on board satellites during the quiet-Sun period between solar cycles 21 and 22 (1985–1987), are analyzed to determine the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for the solar minimum. During the quiet-Sun period the total solar irradiance, UV irradiance, and the various solar activity indices show very little fluctuation. However, the absolute value of the solar total irradiance derived from the observations differ within the accuracy of the radiometers used in the measurements. Therefore, the question often arises about a reference value of the solar total irradiance for use in climate models and for computation of geophysical, and atmospheric parameters. This research is conducted as a part of the Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22). On the basis of the study we recommended a reference value of 1367.0 ± 0.04 W m-2 for the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for a truly quiet Sun. We also find that the total solar irradiance data for the quiet-Sun period reveals strong short-term irradiance variations. 相似文献
19.
Martin F. Woodard 《Solar physics》1988,114(1):21-28
A study of the solar total irradiance data of the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite shows a small but formally significant shift in the frequencies of solar acoustic (p-mode) oscillations between the epochs of maximum and minimum solar activity. Specifically, the mean frequency of the strongest p-mode resonances of low spherical-harmonic degree (l = 0–2) is approximately 1.3 parts in 104 higher in 1980, near the time of sunspot maximum, than in 1985, near sunspot minimum. The observed frequency shift may be an 11-yr effect but the precise mechanism is not clear. 相似文献
20.
The Maunder Minimum is the period between 1645 and 1715. Its main characteristic is abnormally low and prolonged solar activity. However, some authors have doubted the low level of solar activity during that period by questioning the accuracy and objectivity of the observers. This work presents a particular case of a sunspot observed during the Maunder Minimum with an unusual shape of its umbra and penumbra: a hexagon. This sunspot was observed by Cassini in November 1676, just at the core of the Maunder Minimum. This historical observation is compared with a twin case that occurred recently in May 2016. The conclusion reached is that Cassini’s record is another example of the good quality of the observations that were made during the Maunder Minimum, showing the meticulousness of the astronomers of that epoch. This sunspot observation made by Cassini does not support the conclusions of Zolotova and Ponyavin (Astrophys. J. 800, 42, 2015) that professional astronomers in the seventeenth century only registered round sunspots. Finally, a discussion is given of the importance of this kind of unusual sunspot record for a better assessment of the true level of solar activity in the Maunder Minimum. 相似文献