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1.
Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the 3D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem, i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters, randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties.Five probabilistic models of earthquake-induced displacement were developed based on the non-exceedance of a limited value criterion. Moreover, a probabilistic model for dynamic slope stability analysis was developed based on 3D dynamic safety factor.These models are formulated and incorporated within a computer program (PTDDSSA).A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the developed models by applying those models to a well-known landslides (Selset landslide) under different levels of seismic hazard.The parametric study was conducted to evaluate the effect of different input parameters on the resulting critical failure width, 3D dynamic safety factor, earthquake-induced displacement and the probability of failure. Input parameters include: average values and coefficients of variations of water table, cohesion and angle of friction for effective stress analysis, scales of fluctuations in both distance and time, hypocentral distance, earthquake magnitude, earthquake strong shaking period, etc.The hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude were found to have major influence on the earthquake-induced displacement, probability of failure (i.e. probability of allowable displacement exceedance), and dynamic 2D and 3D safety factors. 相似文献
2.
Newmark永久位移是评价边坡在地震时稳定性的一个重要指标,近年来广泛应用于地震边坡危险性评价中。传统Newmark永久位移法在计算临界加速度时假定其为常数,未考虑滑动面上抗剪强度参数的变化,过低估计了边坡的永久位移。为了解决这一问题,本文从岩土结构理论获得思路,详细分析滑块底面抗剪强度参数在地震中的变化过程,以边坡震动过程中黏聚力逐步丧失为基本思路,在黏聚力符合一定概率分布的基础上,提出了一种利用蒙特卡罗法模拟其动态减小过程从而实现临界加速度动态变化的计算方法。经过算例计算,黏聚力和临界加速度体现了地震过程中边坡滑块黏聚力和临界加速度的动态变化,位移大小符合地震边坡实际位移的常规数值。本文提出的蒙特卡罗法实现动态黏聚力和动态临界加速度的计算过程与地震时程相对应,不仅在一定程度上解决了抗剪强度参数的动态变化问题,还解决了传统Newmark位移计算中永久位移比实际位移偏小的问题。 相似文献
3.
本文以天水地区为研究区,结合地震潜在震源区模型和Newmark位移预测方程,采用概率地震危险性分析方法,计算了该地区50年超越概率10%水平下的Newmark位移。同时,根据天水地区50年超越概率10%下的阿里亚斯烈度,并结合Newmark位移与阿里亚斯烈度的关系式,计算了天水地区在遭受50年超越概率10%下的阿里亚斯烈度影响时,潜在滑坡体产生的Newmark位移分布。通过比较上述两种方法得到的天水地区不同Newmark位移的分布特征,本文认为二者虽然存在较大差异,但其空间分布特征均能反映天水地区每个场点处的相对滑坡危险性。对滑坡危险性水平进行分区的结果显示,天水地区60%以上的区域具有高地震滑坡危险性,50%以上的区域具有甚高地震滑坡危险性。本文的研究结果可以作为天水地区地震危险性及风险评估的参考资料,也可以作为天水地区城市规划、土地使用规划、地震应急准备以及其它公共政策制定的参考资料。 相似文献
4.
地震滑坡危险性评估可为震后应急响应等提供科学的决策依据。纽马克位移法可不依赖同震滑坡编目快速评估同震滑坡危险性。工程岩体物理力学参数是该方法的核心参数之一,但其赋值过于单一,难以反映复杂地质背景下岩体强度的空间差异性。针对上述问题,本文在分析地震滑坡影响因子的基础上,选择距断层距离、高程和距水系距离作为影响岩体强度的评价指标并建立岩体强度评价模型,获得区域岩体强度修正系数,进而修正传统方法的临界加速度。结合震后的即时地震动峰值加速度,采用简化纽马克位移法计算边坡累积位移,开展地震滑坡危险性快速评估,并以汶川MW7.9地震的地震滑坡危险性评估为例验证本文方法。结果表明,相对于传统方法,本文方法划分的地震滑坡危险区与同震滑坡分布更加一致。 相似文献
5.
The sliding block theory was proposed by Newmark for determining the permanent displacement of embankments and dams under earthquake loading. This paper highlights recent applications of sliding block theory to different geotechnical structures. The equations to determine seismic factor of safety, yield acceleration and permanent displacement are given for rock block, soil slope, landfill cover, geosynthetic-reinforced soil retaining wall, and composite breakwater. The presented equations for seismic stability degenerate to that of static stability in the absence of earthquake. The permanent displacement for various structures can be obtained from that of a horizontal sliding block through a correction factor. A simplified procedure is included for the permanent displacement under vertical acceleration. The sliding block approach is rational for design under high seismic load. 相似文献
6.
在区域边坡地震危险性评价中主要采用永久位移预测模型进行地震边坡永久位移计算。永久位移预测模型以Newmark滑块理论为基础,通过大量实测地震时程记录统计拟合得出。针对Newmark理论中滑动面抗剪强度参数保持不变和已有位移预测模型的计算位移小于实测位移的问题,利用动态临界加速度理论,分别构建含有峰值加速度和阿里亚斯强度的两种位移预测模型。对该模型计算出的永久位移合理性进行讨论,发现永久位移计算结果符合滑坡实测位移的数量级。采用本文模型计算的永久位移更加接近地震滑坡位移实际大小,可以解决一直存在的预测位移小于实测位移的问题。在更进一步讨论发展的基础上,本文模型可满足更多的理论应用和工程实际,为区域边坡地震危险性评价提供思路。 相似文献
7.
Fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slopes using spatially correlated vector intensity measures 
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下载免费PDF全文 Earthquake‐induced slope displacement is an important parameter for safety evaluation and earthquake design of slope systems. Traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis usually focuses on evaluating slope displacement at a particular location, and it is not suitable for spatially distributed slopes over a large region. This study proposes a computationally efficient framework for fully probabilistic seismic displacement analysis of spatially distributed slope systems using spatially correlated vector intensity measures (IMs). First, a spatial cross‐correlation model for three key ground motion IMs, that is, peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity, and peak ground velocity, is developed using 2686 ground motion recordings from 11 recent earthquakes. To reduce the computational cost, Monte Carlo simulation and data reduction techniques are utilized to generate spatially correlated random fields for the vector IMs. The slope displacement hazards over the region are further quantified using empirical predictive equations. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to highlight the importance of the spatial correlation and the advantage of using spatially correlated vector IMs in seismic hazard analysis of spatially distributed slopes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
滑坡是一种破坏性非常强的地质灾害,其中地震与降雨均为诱导滑坡发生的关键因素。从降雨期间发生地震的角度考虑,基于Green-Ampt降雨入渗模型对Newmark模型进行改进,推导两因素耦合作用下的边坡安全系数FS。以云南省鲁甸县某一区域为例,分别开展无降雨、降雨无积水与降雨积水三种情况下的地震滑坡危险性预测及坡度与入渗深度因子对位移影响分析。通过比较上述三种情况,得到研究区域内的Newmark累积位移分布及危险性区划。结果表明：与未降雨情况相比,后两种情况下地震滑坡高危险程度区域面积占比计算区域随着降雨时间的增加从1%分别提高至9%、12%,滑坡低危险程度区域面积从51%分别降低至35%、33%;坡度值与入渗深度值越大,滑坡位移越大,危险性越高。Newmark改进模型充分考虑了降雨对地震滑坡产生的促进作用,能更好地反映出研究区每个场点相对的滑坡危险性,对滑坡危险性预测具有一定指导意义。 相似文献
9.
E. Mantovani M. Viti D. Babbucci D. Albarello N. Cenni A. Vannucchi 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(1):53-65
We argue that the study of long-range interaction between seismic sources in the peri-Adriatic regions may significantly contribute
to estimating seismic hazard in Italy. This hypothesis is supported by the reconstruction of the geodynamic and tectonic settings
in the Central Mediterranean region, the space–time distribution of major past earthquakes, and the quantification of post-seismic
relaxation. The most significant evidence of long-distance interaction is recognized for the Southern Apennines, whose major
earthquakes have almost regularly followed within a few years the largest events in the Montenegro-Albania zone since 1850.
Statistical analyses of the post-1850 earthquake catalogues give a probability of about 10% that a major event in the Southern
Apennines is not preceded by the occurrence of a strong event in the Southern Dinarides–Albanides within 3–5 years. Conversely,
the probability of false alarms is relevant (50% within 3 years, 33% within 5 years). Northward, the tectonic setting and
some patterns of regularity seen in major events suggest that the seismic activation of the main transtensional decoupling
shear zones in the Central Apennines should influence the probability of major earthquakes in the Northern Apennines. 相似文献
10.
The probability that an earthquake occurs when a train is running over a bridge in earthquake‐prone regions is much higher than before, for high‐speed railway lines are rapidly developed to connect major cities worldwide. This paper presents a finite element method‐based framework for dynamic analysis of coupled bridge–train systems under non‐uniform seismic ground motion, in which rail–wheel interactions and possible separations between wheels and rails are taken into consideration. The governing equations of motion of the coupled bridge–train system are established in an absolute coordinate system. Without considering the decomposition of seismic responses into pseudo‐static and inertia‐dynamic components, the equations of motion of the coupled system are formed in terms of displacement seismic ground motions. The mode superposition method is applied to the bridge structure to make the problem manageable while the Newmark‐β method with an iterative computation scheme is used to find the best solution for the problem concerned. Eight high‐speed trains running over a multi‐span steel truss‐arch bridge subject to earthquakes are taken as a case study. The results from the case study demonstrate that the spatial variation of seismic ground motion affects dynamic responses of the bridge–train system. The ignorance of pseudo‐static component when using acceleration seismic ground motions as input may underestimate seismic responses of the bridge–train system. The probability of separation between wheels and rails becomes higher with increasing train speed. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
以汶川地震为研究背景,针对震后典型钢筋混凝土框架结构进行地震易损性研究。基于Cornell理论框架结合汶川地质资料,拟合出考虑场地特点的地震危险性模型,同时定义损伤水平状态及限值指标,以概率解析易损性研究方法为基础,运用考虑地震动参数的解析易损性评估方法绘制汶川地区钢筋混凝土框架建筑的地震易损性曲线。研究结果表明:考虑地震动参数的概率解析易损性研究方法是一种有效的地震易损性评估方法;以PGA作为地震强度输入指标的结构反应,随自振周期的增大体系最大响应的相关性降低,结构各个损伤状态的失效概率均随之增大。 相似文献
12.
准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河 相似文献
13.
现阶段针对建筑复合节能墙体的抗震性能评估主要根据强震发生后墙体损毁程度实现,评估结果精确度低,因此构建强震环境下建筑复合节能墙体抗震性能评估模型,根据复合节能墙体构件的强度和刚度退化系数,描述强震环境下建筑复合节能墙体损伤情况;在此基础上,采用动态增量分析法(IDA)在不同强度地震动输入条件下,根据建筑复合节能墙体结构响应参数和地震动强度参数构建2种参数的关系曲线——IDA曲线,利用R-O单一函数曲线规则化IDA曲线,获取IDA概率分位曲线,并将50%概率分位曲线斜率用于描述墙体结构损伤的变化,该曲线斜率则为墙体结构损伤指数,依据该指数准确评估强震环境下建筑复合节能墙体抗震性能。实验结果表明,所构建模型可准确分析不同峰值地面加速度时建筑复合节能墙体结构的位移变化,且模型随地震等级不断提升,评估建筑复合节能墙体抗震性结果精度逐渐提高,是一种适合强震环境的建筑复合节能墙体抗震评估模型。 相似文献
14.
Factors Controlling Seismic Susceptibility of the Sele Valley Slopes: The Case of the 1980 Irpinia Earthquake Re-Examined 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Janusz Wasowski Vincenzo Pierri Pierpaolo Pierri Domenico Capolongo 《Surveys in Geophysics》2002,23(6):563-593
Most of the documented slope failures triggered by the 1980 Irpinia earthquake (Ms 6.9) occurred in the upper Sele valley epicentral area (southern Italy). The early investigations revealed some puzzling characteristics of the slope failure distribution, i.e., (i) the higher landslide concentration on the valley slopes located farther away from the earthquake fault; (ii) the predominance of re-activations over first-time movements. The analyses of factors controlling the landslide concentrations indicates that the differences in hydrological setting and in slope were the two main causal factors whereas the seismic shaking, according to the radiation pattern modelling, could have been characterised by a relatively low rate of decrease across the valley. The aspect of the slopes did not play a significant role. The differences in groundwater conditions between the western and eastern valley sides were probably enhanced by the earthquake. In addition to the probable pore-water pressure rise, the seismic shaking caused large increases in the flow of springs draining the western aquifer, and this made the adjacent flysch slopes more prone to landsliding. Data from the available literature suggest that the effects of earthquake-induced groundwater release on seismic landslide distribution is especially important for normal-fault events. The Sele valley case also indicates that the slope of the pre-existing landslides is an important factor controlling their susceptibility to seismic re-activations. 相似文献
15.
Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios for the City of Sofia 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
S. Slavov I. Paskaleva M. Kouteva F. Vaccari G. F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(5-6):1221-1237
— The city of Sofia is exposed to a high seismic risk. Macroseismic intensities in the range of VIII – X (MSK) can be expected in the city. The earthquakes that can influence the hazard in Sofia originate either beneath the city or are caused by seismic sources located within a radius of 40 km. The city of Sofia is also prone to the remote Vrancea seismic zone in Romania, and particularly vulnerable are the long-period elements of the built environment. The high seismic risk and the lack of instrumental recordings of the regional seismicity make the use of appropriate credible earthquake scenarios and ground-motion modelling approaches for defining the seismic input for the city of Sofia necessary. Complete synthetic seismic signals, due to several earthquake scenarios, were computed along chosen geological profiles crossing the city, applying a hybrid technique, which combines the modal summation technique and finite differences. The modelling takes into account simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the site, the position and geometry of the seismic source and the mechanical properties of the propagation medium. Acceleration, velocity and displacement time histories and related quantities of earthquake engineering interest (e.g., response spectra, ground-motion amplification along the profiles) have been supplied. The approach applied in this study allows us to obtain the definition of the seismic input at low cost, exploiting large quantities of existing data (e.g. geotechnical, geological, seismological). It may be efficiently used to estimate the ground motion for the purposes of microzonation, urban planning, retrofitting or insurance of the built environment, etc. 相似文献
16.
Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Newmark's method and stochastic ground motion simulation 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Researchers and practitioners in earthquake engineering have recognized geographic information systems (GIS) to be a significant tool in modeling spatial phenomenon related to hazard and risk. GIS, as an engineering tool, has been primarily used for its spatial data storing and presentation features. Models are often simplified to be more compatible with the light computational capabilities of many GIS. If not simplified, heavy computations are generally performed external to the GIS. A prototype vector-based GIS was developed that employs a rigorous approach to Newmark's displacement method for assessing earthquake triggered landslide hazards. The rigorous Newmark's analysis provides desirable flexibility by allowing input of actual ground motions. The prototype hazard GIS incorporates a popular shot filtered noise technique for generating artificial ground motions. The rigorous approach was compared to a popular simplified approach for computing Newmark displacements. Distribution of regional displacements was found to be similar with the simplified approach giving more and larger extreme displacements. The rigorous approach is suitable for large scales to model various seismic scenarios and their effect on seismically induced landslide potential. 相似文献
17.
Vincenzo Convertito Iunio Iervolino Aldo Zollo Gaetano Manfredi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(6):492-505
The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS. 相似文献
18.
THE ACTIVITY FEATURES OF XIADIAN FAULT ZONE REVEALED BY RONGJIABAO TRENCH AND ITS PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the active faults based on the quantitative study of seismo-geology has the vital practical significance for the earthquake prevention and disaster management because it describes the seismic risk of active faults by the probability of an earthquake that increases with time and the predicted magnitude. The Poisson model used in the traditional probabilistic method contradicts with the activity characteristics of the fault, so it cannot be used directly to the potential earthquake risk evaluation of the active fault where the time elapsing from the last great earthquake is relatively short. That is to say, the present Poisson model might overestimate the potential earthquake risk of the Xiadian active fault zone in North China because the elapsed time after the historical M8 earthquake that occurred in 1679 is only 341a. Thus, based on paleoearthquake study and geomorphology survey in the field, as well as integrating the data provided by the previous scientists, this paper reveals two paleo-events occurring on the Xiadian active fault zone. The first event E1 occurred in 1679 with magnitude M8 and ruptured the surface from Sanhe City of Hebei Province to Pinggu District of Beijing at about 341a BP, and the other happened in (4.89±0.68)ka BP(E2). Our research also found that the average co-seismic displacement is ~(1.4±0.1)m, and the predicted maximum magnitude of the potential earthquake is 8.0. In addition, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of great earthquakes for Xiadian active fault zone in the forthcoming 30a is performed based on Poisson model, Brownian time passage model(BPT), stochastic characteristic-slip model(SCS)and NB model to describe time-dependent features of the fault rupture source and its characteristic behavior. The research shows that the probability of strong earthquake in the forthcoming 30a along the Xiadian active fault zone is lower than previously thought, and the seismic hazard level estimated by Poisson model might be overestimated. This result is also helpful for the scientific earthquake potential estimation and earthquake disaster protection of the Xiadian active fault zone, and for the discussion on how to better apply the time-dependent probabilistic methods to the earthquake potential evaluation of active faults in eastern China. 相似文献
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Three-dimensional (3D) limit analysis of seismic stability of slopes reinforced with one row of piles is presented in this paper. A 3D rotational mechanism for earth slope is adopted. The lateral forces provided by the piles are evaluated by the theory of plastic deformation. Expressions for calculating the yield acceleration coefficient are derived. A random iteration method is employed to find the critical acceleration coefficient for the 3D slopes with or without reinforcement. Based on the kinematic theory within the frame of the pseudo-static approach, a 3D model is proposed for evaluating the critical state and the subsequent displacement response. Furthermore, Newmark׳s analytical procedure is employed to estimate the cumulative displacement induced by given earthquake loads. An example is shown to illustrate the influence of the piles on the seismic displacement of the 3D slopes. 相似文献