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1.
The 1875 rhyolitic eruption of Askja volcano in Iceland was a complex but well-documented silicic explosive eruption. Eyewitness chronologies, coupled with examination of very proximal exposures and historical records of distal deposit thickness, provide an unusual opportunity for study of Plinian and phreatoplinian eruption and plume dynamics. The ∼ 17 hour-long main eruption was characterized by abrupt and reversible shifts in eruption style, e.g., from ‘wet’ to ‘dry’ eruption conditions, and transitions from fall to flow activity. The main eruption began with a ‘dry’ subplinian phase (B), followed by a shift to a very powerful phreatoplinian ‘wet’ eruptive phase (C1). A shift from sustained ‘wet’ activity to the formation of ‘wet’ pyroclastic density currents followed with the C2 pyroclastic density currents, which became dryer with time. Severe ground shaking accompanied a migration in vent position and the onset of the intense ‘dry’ Plinian phase (D). Each of the fall units can be modeled using the segmented exponential thinning method (Bonadonna et al. 1998), and three to five segments have been recognized on a semilog plot of thickness vs. area1/2. The availability of very proximal and far-distal thickness data in addition to detailed observations taken during this eruption has enabled calculations of eruption parameters such as volumes, intensities and eruption column heights. This comprehensive dataset has been used here to assess the bias of volume calculations when proximal and distal data are missing, and to evaluate power-law and segmented exponential thinning methods using limited datasets.  相似文献   

2.
Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ‘anomaly ratio’ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anomalies before the target earthquake over the number of stations/items in operation around the target earthquake. Variation of the ‘anomaly ratio’ with the magnitude of the target earthquake was studied for dip-slip earthquakes all over China, strike-slip earthquakes in eastern China, and strike-slip earthquakes in western China, respectively. It is observed that for strike-slip earthquakes, the ‘anomaly ratio’ increases linearly with the magnitude of the target earthquake, while earthquakes in eastern China and western China have different slopes. For dip-slip earthquakes, however, the ‘anomaly ratio’ has no statistically significant change with the magnitude of the target earthquake. Limited data imply that the ‘anomaly ratio’ seems proportional to the apparent stress of the target earthquake. The result might be heuristic for the analysis of candidate earthquake precursors. Foundation item: National Natural Science Foundation of China (40274013) and MOST Project (2001BA601B02). Contribution No.04FE1020, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.  相似文献   

3.
In the list of ’repeating pairs’ or ’doublets’ of earthquakes in China identified by Schaff and Richards using tele-seismic waveform cross-correlation, there were 23 repeating pairs located in Liaoning Province. In this study the waveforms of these events were cross-correlated using records from Liaoning Regional Seismograph Network (LRSN), and the ’repeating events’ in the sense of regional waveform cross-correlation were obtained. The result was compared with that of Schaff and Richards and was used for the assessment of the seismic phase picking and event location practice of LRSN. The result shows that ’repeating events’ in the sense of teleseismic waveform cross-correlation and those in the sense of regional waveform cross-correlation have significant difference, al-though with some overlap. However, the overall assessment of the location accuracy and the phase pick errors of LRSN by using these two sets of ’repeating events’, respectively, provides similar results, while ’repeating events’ in the sense of regional waveform cross-correlation seem to be better performing in such an assessment. With the assumption that the separation between the ’repeaters’ be less than 1 km, the uncertainty in routine earthquake location of LRSN is estimated to be below 5 km, with the average of 2 km. In the observational bulletins of LRSN the time error in phase picking is estimated to be within ±1s for 94% Pg readings and for 88% Sg readings.  相似文献   

4.
The partition of elements between seawater and the marine solid phases (organisms and pelagic clays) is basically controlled by the same surface adsorption mechanisms as between soil pore water and the land solid phases (plants and soils). However, the elements in living organisms are separated into ‘biophile’ and ‘biophobe’ groups.  相似文献   

5.
Pattern informatics (PI) model is one of the recently developed predictive models of earthquake phys- ics based on the statistical mechanics of complex systems. In this paper, retrospective forecast test of the PI model was conducted for the earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region since 1988, exploring the possibility to apply this model to the estimation of time-dependent seismic hazard in continental China. Regional earthquake catalogue down to ML3.0 from 1970 to 2007 was used. The ‘target magnitude’ for the forecast test was MS5.5. Fifteen-year long ‘sliding time window’ was used in the PI calculation, with ‘anomaly training time window’ being 5 years and ‘forecast time window’ being 5 years, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) test was conducted for the evaluation of the forecast result, showing that the PI forecast outperforms not only random guess but also the simple number counting approach based on the clustering hypothesis of earthquakes (the RI forecast). If the ‘forecast time window’ was shortened to 3 years and 1 year, respectively, the forecast capability of the PI model de- creased significantly, albeit outperformed random forecast. For the one year ‘forecast time window’, the PI result was almost comparable to the RI result, indicating that clustering properties play a more important role at this time scale.  相似文献   

6.
The Nesjahraun is a basaltic lava flow erupted from a subaerial fissure, extending NE along the Tingvellir graben from the Hengill central volcano that produced pāhoehoe lava followed by ‘a‘ā. The Nesjahraun entered Iceland’s largest lake, Tingvallavatn, along its southern shore during both phases of the eruption and exemplifies lava flowing into water in a lacustrine environment in the absence of powerful wave action. This study combines airborne light detection and ranging, sidescan sonar and Chirp seismic data with field observations to investigate the behaviour of the lava as it entered the water. Pāhoehoe sheet lava was formed during the early stages of the eruption. Along the shoreline, stacks of thin (5–20 cm thick), vesicular, flows rest upon and surround low (<5 m) piles of coarse, unconsolidated, variably oxidised spatter. Clefts within the lava run inland from the lake. These are 2–5 m wide, >2 m deep, ∼50 m long, spaced ∼50 m apart and have sub-horizontal striations on the walls. They likely represent channels or collapsed tubes along which lava was delivered into the water. A circular rootless cone, Eldborg, formed when water infiltrated a lava tube. Offshore from the pāhoehoe lavas, the gradient of the flow surface steepens, suggesting a change in flow regime and the development of a talus ramp. Later, the flow was focused into a channel of ‘a‘ā lava, ∼200–350 m wide. This split into individual flow lobes 20–50 m wide along the shore. ‘A‘ā clinker is exposed on the water’s edge, as well as glassy sand and gravel, which has been locally intruded by small (<1 m), irregularly shaped, lava bodies. The cores of the flow lobes contain coherent, but hackly fractured lava. Mounds consisting predominantly of scoria lapilli and the large paired half-cone of Grámelur were formed in phreatomagmatic explosions. The ‘a‘ā flow can be identified underwater over 1 km offshore, and the sidescan data suggest that the flow lobes remained coherent flowing down a gradient of <10°. The Nesjahraun demonstrates that, even in the absence of ocean waves, phreatomagmatic explosions are ubiquitous and that pāhoehoe flows are much more likely to break up on entering the water than ‘a‘ā flows, which, with a higher flux and shallow underlying surface gradient, can penetrate water and remain coherent over distances of at least 1 km.  相似文献   

7.
Global climate change is one of the most serious issues we are facing today. While its exact impacts on our water resources are hard to predict, there is a general consensus among scientists that it will result in more frequent and more severe hydrologic extremes (e.g. floods, droughts). Since rainfall is the primary input for hydrologic and water resource studies, assessment of the effects of climate change on rainfall is essential for devising proper short-term emergency measures as well as long-term management strategies. This is particularly the case for a region like the Korean Peninsula, which is susceptible to both floods (because of its mountainous terrain and frequent intense rainfalls during the short rainy season) and droughts (because of its smaller area, long non-rainy season, and lack of storage facilities). In view of this, an attempt is made in the present study to investigate the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall in the Korean Peninsula. More specifically, the dynamics of ‘present rainfall’ and ‘future rainfall’ at the Seoul meteorological station in the Han River basin are examined and compared; monthly scale is considered in both cases. As for ‘present rainfall,’ two different data sets are used: (1) observed rainfall for the period 1971–1999; and (2) rainfall for the period 1951–1999 obtained through downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs produced by the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research-Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2.0) climate model with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) scenario. The ‘future rainfall’ (2000–2099) is obtained through downscaling of climate outputs projected by the BCCR-BCM2.0 with the A2 emission scenario. For downscaling of coarse-scale climate outputs to basin-scale rainfall, a K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) technique is used. Examination of the nature of rainfall dynamics is made through application of four methods: autocorrelation function, phase space reconstruction, correlation dimension, and close returns plot. The results are somewhat mixed, depending upon the method, as to whether the rainfall dynamics are chaotic or stochastic; however, the dynamics of the future rainfall seem more on the chaotic side than on the stochastic side, and more so when compared to that of the present rainfall.  相似文献   

8.
The first eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano’s summit in 25 years began in March 2008 with the opening of a 35-m-wide vent in Halema‘uma‘u crater. The new activity has produced prominent very-long-period (VLP) signals corresponding with two new behaviors: episodic tremor bursts and small explosive events, both of which represent degassing events from the top of the lava column. Previous work has shown that VLP seismicity has long been present at Kīlauea’s summit, and is sourced approximately 1 km below Halema‘uma‘u. By integrating video observations, infrasound and seismic data, we show that the onset of the large VLP signals occurs within several seconds of the onset of the degassing events. This timing indicates that the VLP is caused by forces—sourced at or very near the lava free surface due to degassing—transmitted down the magma column and coupling to the surrounding rock at 1 km depth.  相似文献   

9.
In eutrophic Lake Alpnach, several forms of whitefish (Coregonus spp.) are found which show different growth rates. In recent years, immature whitefish of the fastgrowing form (local name: ‘Felchen’, here called ‘Grossfelchen’) have been caught in the nets used for fishing the slowgrowing form (local name: ‘Albeli’, here called ‘Kleinfelchen’). The aim of this study was to identify the different forms of coregonids and to determine their growth rate, age of first maturation, and relative frequency in the catch with gill nets of different mesh sizes. While the separation of the different forms on the basis of meristic characters proved unsatisfactory, the growth during the first year of life was found best suited for this purpose. For the whitefish fishery in Lake Alpnach, the fastgrowing form is regarded as the most important one. Due to eutrophication, the whitefish now show a considerably faster growth than about 40 years ago. In addition, they mature at a younger age than before. The consequences of these findings for the management of the whitefish stocks in Lake Alpnach are discussed.   相似文献   

10.
The effects of leaf shape, serration, roughness and flexural rigidity on drag force imposed by flowing water and its time variability were experimentally studied in an open-channel flume at seven leaf Reynolds numbers ranging from 5 to 35 × 103. The study involved artificial leaves of the same surface area but with three shapes (‘elliptic’, ‘rectangular’ and ‘pinnate’), three flexural rigidities, smooth-edge and sawtooth-like serration, and three combinations of surface roughness (two-side rough, one-side rough/one-side smooth, and two-side smooth). Shape was the most important factor determining flow-leaf interactions, with flexural rigidity, serration and surface roughness affecting the magnitude but not the direction of the effect on drag control. The smooth-edge elliptic leaf had a better hydrodynamic shape as it experienced less drag force, with the rectangular leaf showing slightly less efficiency. The pinnate leaf experienced higher drag force than the other leaves due to its complex geometry. It is likely that flow separation from 12 leaflets of the pinnate leaf prevented leaf reconfiguration such as leaflets folding and/or streamlining. Flexural rigidity strongly influenced the leaf reconfiguration and augmented the serration effect since very rigid leaves showed a strong effect of serration. Furthermore, serration changed the turbulence pattern around the leaves by increasing the turbulence intensity. Surface roughness was observed to enhance the drag force acting on the leaf at high Reynolds numbers. The results also suggest that there are two distinctly different flow-leaf interaction regimes: (I) regime of passive interaction at low turbulence levels when the drag statistics are completely controlled by the turbulence statistics, and (II) regime of active interaction at high turbulence levels when the effect of leaf properties on the drag statistics becomes comparable to the turbulence contribution.  相似文献   

11.
The variation of chemical element compositions in two pyroclastic sequences (Astroni 6 and Averno 2, Phlegrean Fields, Italy) is studied. Both sequences are compositionally zoned indicating a variability of melt compositions in the magma chamber prior to eruption. A clear dichotomy between the behaviour of major vs. trace elements is also observed in both sequences, with major elements displaying nearly linear inter-elemental trends and trace elements showing a variable scattered behaviour. Together with previous petrological investigations these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that magma mixing processes played a key role in the evolution of these two magmatic systems. Recently it has been suggested that mixing processes in igneous systems may strongly influence the mobility of trace elements inducing a ‘diffusive fractionation’ phenomenon, whose extent depends on the mixing time-scale. Here we merge information from 1) numerical simulations of magma mixing, and 2) magma mixing experiments (using as end-members natural compositions from Phlegrean Fields) to derive a relationship relating the degree of ‘diffusive fractionation’ to the mixing time-scales. Application of the ‘diffusive fractionation’ model to the two studied pyroclastic sequences allowed us to apply the relationship derived by numerical simulations and experiments to estimate the mixing time-scales for these two magmatic systems. Results indicate that mixing processes in Astroni 6 and Averno 2 systems lasted for approximately 2 and 9 days, respectively, prior to eruption.  相似文献   

12.
To improve our knowledge of the structural pattern of Mt. Vesuvius and its magmatic system, which represents one of the three volcanoes located in the Neapolitan area (together with Campi Flegrei and Ischia; southern Italy), we analyze here the Bouguer gravity map that is already available through its interpretation by means of 2.5-dimensional modelling. We have carried out a three-dimensional interpretation using a new and original algorithm, known as ‘Layers’, that has been especially processed for this purpose. Layers works in an automatic and non-subjective way, and allows the definition of the structural settings in terms of several layers, each representing a specific geological formation. The same data are also interpreted in terms of isolated and shallow anomalous density bodies using a well tested algorithm known as ‘Growth’. We focus our inversions on the Mt. Vesuvius volcano, while globally analyzing the entire Neapolitan area, in order to investigate the deep structures, and in particular the deep extended ‘sill’ that has been revealed by seismic tomography. The final models generally confirm the global setting of the area as outlined by previous investigations, mainly for the shape and depth of the carbonate basement below Mt. Vesuvius. The presence of lateral density contrasts inside the volcano edifice is also shown, which was only hypothesized in the 2.5-dimensional inversion. Moreover, the models allow us to note a high density body that rises from the top of the carbonate basement and further elongates above sea level. This probably represents an uprising of the same basement, which is just below the volcano and which coincides with the VP and VP/VS anomalies detected under the crater. The three-dimensional results also reveal that the two inversion methods provide very similar models, where the high density isolated body in the Growth model can be associated with the rising high density anomaly in the Layers model. Taking into account the density of these modelled bodies, we would also suggest that they represent solidified magma bodies, as suggested by other studies. Finally, we did not clearly detect any deep anomalous body that can be associated with the sill that was suggested by seismic tomography.  相似文献   

13.
Micro- and macro-dispersive fluxes in canopy flows   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Resolving every detail of the three-dimensional canopy morphology and its underlying topography remains untenable when modeling high Reynolds number geophysical flows. How to represent the effects of such a complex morphological variability and any concomittant topographic variability into one-dimensional bulk flow representation remains a fundamental challenge to be confronted in canopy turbulence research. Theoretically, planar averaging to the scale of interest should be applied to the time-averaged mean momentum balance; however, such averaging gives rise to covariance or dispersive terms produced by spatial correlations of time-averaged quantities that remain ‘unclosed’ or require parameterization. When the averaging scale is commensurate with few canopy heights, these covariances can be labeled as ‘micro-dispersive’ stresses. When averaging is intended to eliminate low-wavenumber topographic variations, we refer to these covariances as ‘macro-dispersive’ terms. Two flume experiments were used to explore the magnitude and sign of both micro- and macro-dispersive fluxes relative to their conventional Reynolds stresses counterparts: a rod-canopy with variable roughness density and a dense rod canopy situated on gentle hilly terrain. When compared to the conventional momentum flux, the micro-dispersive fluxes in the lowest layers of sparse canopies can be significant (∼50%). For dense canopies, the dispersive terms remain negligible when compared to the conventional momentum fluxes throughout. For the macro-dispersive fluxes, model calculations suggest that these terms can be neglected relative to the Reynolds stresses for a deep canopy situated on a narrow hill. For the region in which topographic variations can interact with the pressure, both model calculations and flume experiments suggest that the macro-dispersive fluxes cannot be neglected, and their value can be 20% of the typical Reynolds stresses.  相似文献   

14.
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15.
Long-lived basaltic eruptions often produce structurally complex, compound `a`ā flow fields. Here we reconstruct the development of a compound flow field emplaced during the 2001 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy). Following an initial phase of cooling-limited advance, the reactivation of stationary flows by superposition of new units caused significant channel drainage. Later, blockages in the channel and effusion rate variations resulted in breaching events that produced two new major flow branches. We also examined small-scale, late-stage ‘squeeze-up’ extrusions that were widespread in the flow field. We classified these as ‘flows’, ‘tumuli’ or ‘spines’ on the basis of their morphology, which depended on the rheology, extrusion rate and cooling history of the lava. Squeeze-up flows were produced when the lava was fluid enough to drain away from the source bocca, but fragmented to produce blade-like features that differed markedly from `a`ā clinker. As activity waned, increased cooling and degassing led to lava arriving at boccas with a higher yield strength. In many cases this was unable to flow after extrusion, and laterally extensive, near-vertical sheets of lava developed. These are considered to be exogenous forms of tumuli. In the highest yield strength cases, near-solid lava was extruded from the flow core as a result of ramping, forming spines. The morphology and location of the squeeze-ups provides insight into the flow rheology at the time of their formation. Because they represent the final stages of activity of the flow, they may also help to refine estimates of the most advanced rheological states in which lava can be considered to flow. Our observations suggest that real-time monitoring of compound flow field evolution may allow complex processes such as channel breaching and bocca formation to be forecast. In addition, documenting the occurrence and morphology of squeeze-ups may allow us to determine whether there is any risk of a stalled flow front being reactivated. This will therefore enhance our ability to track and assess hazard posed by lava flow emplacement.  相似文献   

16.
This paper, addresses the problem of novelty detection in the case that the observed data is a mixture of a known ‘background’ process contaminated with an unknown other process, which generates the outliers, or novel observations. The framework we describe here is quite general, employing univariate classification with incomplete information, based on knowledge of the distribution (the probability density function, pdf) of the data generated by the ‘background’ process. The relative proportion of this ‘background’ component (the prior ‘background’ probability), the pdf and the prior probabilities of all other components are all assumed unknown. The main contribution is a new classification scheme that identifies the maximum proportion of observed data following the known ‘background’ distribution. The method exploits the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to estimate the proportions, and afterwards data are Bayes optimally separated. Results, demonstrated with synthetic data, show that this approach can produce more reliable results than a standard novelty detection scheme. The classification algorithm is then applied to the problem of identifying outliers in the SIC2004 data set, in order to detect the radioactive release simulated in the ‘joker’ data set. We propose this method as a reliable means of novelty detection in the emergency situation which can also be used to identify outliers prior to the application of a more general automatic mapping algorithm.
Davide D’AlimonteEmail:
Dan Cornford (Corresponding author)Email:
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17.
The 1960 Kapoho lavas of Kilauea’s east rift zone contain 1–10 cm xenoliths of olivine gabbro, olivine gabbro-norite, and gabbro norite. Textures are poikilitic (ol+sp+cpx in pl) and intergranular (cpx+pl±ol±opx). Poikilitic xenoliths, which we interpret as cumulates, have the most primitive mineral compositions, Fo82.5, cpx Mg# 86.5, and An80.5. Many granular xenoliths (ol and noritic gabbro) contain abundant vesicular glass that gives them intersertal, hyaloophitic, and overall ‘open’ textures to suggest that they represent ‘mush’ and ‘crust’ of a magma crystallization environment. Their phase compositions are more evolved (Fo80–70, cpx Mg# 82–75, and An73–63) than those of the poikilitic xenoliths. Associated glass is basaltic, but evolved (MgO 5 wt%; TiO2 3.7–5.8 wt%). The gabbroic xenolith mineral compositions fit existing fractional crystallization models that relate the origins of various Kilauea lavas to one another. FeO/MgO crystal–liquid partitioning is consistent with the poikilitic ol-gabbro assemblage forming as a crystallization product from Kilauea summit magma with ∼8 wt% MgO that was parental to evolved lavas on the east rift zone. For example, least squares calculations link summit magmas to early 1955 rift-zone lavas (∼5 wt% MgO) through ∼28–34% crystallization of the ol+sp+cpx+pl that comprise the poikilitic ol-gabbros. The other ol-gabbro assemblages and the olivine gabbro-norite assemblages crystallized from evolved liquids, such as represented by the early 1955 and late 1955 lavas (∼6.5 wt% MgO) of the east rift zone. The eruption of 1960 Kapoho magmas, then, scoured the rift-zone reservoir system to entrain portions of cumulate and solidification zones that had coated reservoir margins during crystallization of prior east rift-zone magmas. Received: January 7, 1993/Accepted: November 23, 1993  相似文献   

18.
A dual isolation problem for rotating machines consists of isolation of housing structures from the machinevi brations and protection of machines during an earthquake to maintain their functionality. Desirable characteristics of machine mounts for the above two purposes can differ significantly due to difference in nature of the excitation and performance criteria in the two situations. In this paper, relevant response quantities are identified that may be used to quantify performance and simplified models of rotating machines are presented using which these relevant response quantities may be calculated. Using random vibration approach with a stationary excitation, it is shown that significant improvement in seismic performance is achievable by proper mount design. Results of shaking table experiments performed with a realistic setup using a centrifugal pump are presented. It is concluded that a solution to this dual isolation problem lies in a semi-active mount capable of switching its properties from ‘operation-optimum’ to ‘seismic-optimum’ at the onset of a seismic event.  相似文献   

19.
South of the Zagros belt, the entire land of Southern Iran faces problems arising out of various types of land degradation of which water erosion forms a major type. A new model has been developed for assessing the risk of water erosion. Taking into consideration nine indicators of water erosion the model identifies areas with ‘Potential Risk’ (risky zones) and areas of ‘Actual Risk’ as well as projects the probability of the worse degradation in future. The Qareh Aghaj subbasin (1,265,000 ha), which covers the upper reaches of Mond River, has been chosen for a test risk assessment of this kind. The preparation of risk maps based on the GIS analysis of these indicators will be helpful for prioritizing the areas to initiate remedial measures. The different kinds of data for indicators of water erosion were gathered from the records and published reports of the governmental offices of Iran. By fixing the thresholds of severity classes of the nine indicators a hazard map for each indicator was first prepared in GIS. The risk classes were defined on the basis of risk scores arrived at by assigning the appropriate attributes to the indicators and the risk map was prepared by overlaying nine hazard maps in the GIS. Areas under potential risk have been found to be widespread (63%) in the basin and when classified into subclasses with different probability levels the model projects a statistical picture of the risk of land degradation.  相似文献   

20.
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