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1.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):369-380
The sunspot number series at the peak of sunspot activity often has two or three peaks (Gnevyshev peaks; Gnevyshev, Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967; Solar Phys.
51, 175, 1977). The sunspot group number (SGN) data were examined for 1997 – 2003 (part of cycle 23) and compared with data for coronal
mass ejection (CME) events. It was noticed that they exhibited mostly two Gnevyshev peaks in each of the four latitude belts
0° – 10°, 10° – 20°, 20 ° – 30°, and > 30°, in both N (northern) and S (southern) solar hemispheres. The SGN were confined
to within latitudes ± 50° around the Equator, mostly around ± 35°, and seemed to occur later in lower latitudes, indicating
possible latitudinal migration as in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In CMEs, less energetic CMEs (of widths < 71°) showed
prominent Gnevyshev peaks during sunspot maximum years in almost all latitude belts, including near the poles. The CME activity
lasted longer than the SGN activity. However, the CME peaks did not match the SGN peaks and were almost simultaneous at different
latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. In energetic CMEs including halo CMEs, the Gnevyshev peaks were obscure and
ill-defined. The solar polar magnetic fields show polarity reversal during sunspot maximum years, first at the North Pole
and, a few months later, at the South Pole. However, the CME peaks and gaps did not match with the magnetic field reversal
times, preceding them by several months, rendering any cause – effect relationship doubtful. 相似文献
2.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):355-367
The 12-month running means of the conventional sunspot number Rz, the sunspot group numbers (SGN) and the frequency of occurrence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were examined for cycle
23 (1996 – 2006). For the whole disc, the SGN and Rz plots were almost identical. Hence, SGN could be used as a proxy for Rz, for which latitude data are not available. SGN values were used for 5° latitude belts 0° – 5°, 5° – 10°, 10° – 15°, 15° – 20°,
20° – 25°, 25° – 30° and > 30°, separately in each hemisphere north and south. Roughly, from latitudes 25° – 30° N to 20° – 25°
N, the peaks seem to have occurred later for lower latitudes, from latitudes 20° – 25° N to 15° – 20° N, the peaks are stagnant or occur slightly earlier, and then from latitudes 15° – 20° N to 0° – 5° N, the peaks seem to have occurred again later for lower latitudes. Thus, some latitudinal migration is suggested, clearly in the northern hemisphere, not very clearly
in the southern hemisphere, first to the equator in 1998, stagnant or slightly poleward in 1999, and then to the equator again
from 2000 onwards, the latter reminiscent of the Maunder butterfly diagrams. Similar plots for CME occurrence frequency also
showed multiple peaks (two or three) in almost all latitude belts, but the peaks were almost simultaneous at all latitudes,
indicating no latitudinal migration. For similar latitude belts, SGN and CME plots were dissimilar in almost all latitude
belts except 10° – 20° S. The CME plots had in general more peaks than the SGN plots, and the peaks of SGN often did not match
with those of CME. In the CME data, it was noticed that whereas the values declined from 2002 to 2003, there was no further
decline during 2003 – 2006 as one would have expected to occur during the declining phase of sunspots, where 2007 is almost
a year of sunspot minimum. An inquiry at GSFC-NASA revealed that the person who creates the preliminary list was changed in
2004 and the new person picks out more weak CMEs. Thus a subjectivity (overestimates after 2002) seems to be involved and
hence, values obtained before and during 2002 are not directly comparable to values recorded after 2002, except for CMEs with
widths exceeding 60°. 相似文献
3.
In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys.
250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding
sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving
average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the
declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle
is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90%
prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the
best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which
is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably
in July 2012 (± 4 months). 相似文献
4.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):487-493
Three series (1876 – 1986, 1886 – 1996, and 1896 – 2006) of 111 annual values of sunspot number R
z in each were subjected to spectral analysis to detect periodicities by the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the periodicities
so obtained were used in a multiple regression analysis (MRA) to estimate the amplitudes and phases. All series showed roughly
similar spectra with many periodicities (24 or more), but most of these were insignificant. The significant periodicities
(far exceeding 2σ) were near 5, 8 – 12, 18, and 37 years. Using the amplitudes and phases of these, we obtained reconstructed series, which
showed good correlations (+ 0.7 and more) with the original series. When extrapolated further in time, the reconstructed series
indicated R
z(max) in the ranges 80 – 101 (mean 92) for cycle 24 during years 2011 – 2014, 112 – 127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years
2022 – 2023, 115 – 120 (mean 118) for cycle 26 during years 2032 – 2034, and 100 – 113 (mean 109) for cycle 27 during 2043 – 2045. 相似文献
5.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,245(2):415-421
The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys.
1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers
were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were
observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks
increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which
was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part
of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev
peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match. 相似文献
6.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,243(2):205-217
For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of
a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles.
However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity
in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the
present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted
Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum
may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor
method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever
may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23. 相似文献
7.
An Estimate for the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2013,282(1):87-90
For the sunspot cycles in the modern era (cycle?10 to the present), the ratio of R Z(max)/R Z(36th month) equals 1.26±0.22, where R Z(max) is the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle?using smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and R Z(36th month) is the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number 36 months after cycle?minimum. For the current sunspot cycle?24, the 36th month following the cycle?minimum occurred in November 2011, measuring?61.1. Hence, cycle?24 likely will have a maximum amplitude of about 77.0±13.4 (the one-sigma prediction interval), a value well below the average R Z(max) for the modern era sunspot cycles (about 119.7±39.5). 相似文献
8.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2011,269(2):451-454
Cosmic ray neutron monitors show intensity changes (counts) anti-correlated with sunspot number R
z, but with a lag of a few months. The lag is ∼ 3 months for even cycles and ∼ 9 – 15 months for odd cycles. Thus, for the
recently started even Cycle 24, a lag of ∼ 3 months was expected. However, for Cycle 24, whereas R
z had a minimum value (zero) in August 2009, cosmic ray intensity decreased only after March 2010, with a lag of seven months
with respect to R
z. Thus, Cycle 24 did not conform to the known pattern of even cycles (lag of ∼ 3 months). It may be noted that the minimum
at the juncture of Cycle 23-24 was abnormally long, tens of months instead of few months as in earlier cycles. Also, in this
solar minimum, the cosmic ray intensity was much higher than in previous cycles. 相似文献
9.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):177-190
From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective
of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007)
and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97)
with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means
indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux,
coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar
energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic
fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double
peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric
intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities
in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within
± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial
solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude
belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were
almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally,
the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very
weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°. 相似文献
10.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》1992,140(1):171-180
Solar cycle No. 22 which started in 1986 seems to have already passed through a maximum. The maximum annual mean sunspot number was 157 for 1989. The maximum twelve-month running average was 159, centered on July 1989. For cycle 21, the similar value was 165 centered at December 1979. Thus, cycle 22 is slightly weaker than cycle 21. Schatten and Sofia (1987) had predicted a stronger cycle 22 (170 ± 25) as compared to cycle 21 (140 ± 20). Predictions based on single variable analysis, viz., R
z
(max) versus aa(min) were 165 and came true. Predictions based on a bivariate analysis, viz., R
z
(max) versus aa(min) and R
z
(min) were 130 and proved to be underestimates. Other techniques gave over- or underestimates. 相似文献
11.
H. Kiliç 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):155-162
The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the
Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum,
and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities
in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion
of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys.
129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys.
65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum
ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23. 相似文献
12.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2008,252(2):419-439
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah
(Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc.
377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern
hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval
of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude
of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year
periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south
asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years
in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically
significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3).
By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get
87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that
cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even
numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially
responsible for all the above relationships.
The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles,
CA 90095-1547, USA. 相似文献
13.
Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing
the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and
the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows
saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly
due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes
of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys.
179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of
the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations. 相似文献
14.
R. S. Dabas Kavita Sharma Rupesh M. Das K. G. M. Pillai Parvati Chopra N. K. Sethi 《Solar physics》2008,250(1):171-181
Based on cycles 17 – 23, linear correlations are obtained between 12-month moving averages of the number of disturbed days
when Ap is greater than or equal to 25, called the Disturbance Index (DI), at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks
1, 2,… , each of six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle and the maximum amplitude of
the following sunspot cycle. In particular, variate block 9, which occurs just prior to subsequent cycle minimum, gives the
best correlation (0.94) with a minimum standard error of estimation of ± 13, and hindcasting shows agreement between predicted
and observed maximum amplitudes to about 10%. As applied to cycle 24, the modified precursor technique yields maximum amplitude
of about 124±23 occurring about 45±4 months after its minimum amplitude occurrence, probably in mid to late 2011. 相似文献
15.
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude
for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude
for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23.
Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is
expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). 相似文献
16.
The manifestation of convection in deep layers of the Sun has been found in the dynamics of solar surface activity (Arkhypov,
Antonov, and Khodachenko in Solar Phys.
270, 1, 2011). Some chromospheric phenomena could be connected with deep convection, too. We justify this hypothesis with sunspot, Ca ii, Hα, and millimeter-wave radio data. It is argued that large-scale (20 to 25 deg) bright regions in the chromosphere, surrounded
by dark halos with diameters of 40° to 50°, can be manifestations of giant convection cells. The ascending and descending
flows in such cells modulate the emergence of magnetic tubes generating the high-temperature regions and low-temperature halo
in the chromosphere. Our estimates of the rotation rate of such features confirm their association with deep (≳ 35 Mm) layers
of the solar convection zone. 相似文献
17.
Continuous wavelet transform and cross‐wavelet transform have been used to investigate the phase periodicity and synchrony of the monthly mean Wolf (Rz) and group (Rg) sunspot numbers during the period of June 1795 to December 1995. The Schwabe cycle is the only one common period in Rg and Rz, but it is not well‐defined in case of cycles 5–7 of Rg and in case of cycles 5 and 6 of Rz. In fact, the Schwabe period is slightly different in Rg and Rz before cycle 12, but from cycle 12 onwards it is almost the same for the two time series. Asynchrony of the two time series is more obviously seen in cycles 5 and 6 than in the following cycles, and usually more obviously seen around the maximum time of a cycle than during the rest of the cycle. Rg is found to fit Rz better in both amplitudes and peak epoch during the minimum time time of a solar cycle than during the maximum time of the cycle, which should be caused by their different definition, and around the maximum time of a cycle, Rg is usually less than Rz. Asynchrony of Rg and Rz should somewhat agree with different sunspot cycle characteristics exhibited by themselves (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
18.
To study the quantitative relationship between the brightness of the coronal green line 530.5 nm Fe xiv and the strength of the magnetic field in the corona, we have calculated the cross-correlation of the corresponding synoptic
maps for the period 1977 – 2001. The maps of distribution of the green-line brightness I were plotted using every-day monitoring data. The maps of the magnetic field strength B and the tangential B
t and radial B
r field components at the distance 1.1 R
⊙ were calculated under potential approximation from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) photospheric data. It is shown that
the correlation I with the field and its components calculated separately for the sunspot formation zone ±30° and the zone 40 – 70° has a cyclic
character, the corresponding correlation coefficients in these zones changing in anti-phase. In the sunspot formation zone,
all three coefficients are positive and have the greatest values near the cycle minimum decreasing significantly by the maximum.
Above 40°, the coefficients are alternating in sign and reach the greatest positive values at the maximum and the greatest
negative values, at the minimum of the cycle. It is inferred that the green-line emission in the zone ±30° is mainly controlled
by B
t, probably due to the existence of low arch systems. In the high-latitude zone, particularly at the minimum of the cycle,
an essential influence is exerted by B
r, which may be a manifestation of the dominant role of large-scale magnetic fields. Near the activity minimum, when the magnetic
field organization is relatively simple, the relation between I and B for the two latitudinal zones under consideration can be represented as a power-law function of the type I ∝ B
q. In the sunspot formation zone, the power index q is positive and varies from 0.75 to 1.00. In the zone 40 – 70°, it is negative and varies from −0.6 to −0.8. It is found
that there is a short time interval approximately at the middle of the ascending branch of the cycle, when the relationship
between I and B vanishes. The results obtained are considered in relation to various mechanisms of the corona heating. 相似文献
19.
The purpose of the present study is to develop an empirical model based on precursors in the preceding solar cycle that can
be used to forecast the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the next solar cycle. Statistical parameters are derived for
each solar cycle using “Monthly” and “Monthly smoothed” (SSN) data of international sunspot number (R
i). Primarily the variability in monthly sunspot number during different phases of the solar cycle is considered along with
other statistical parameters that are computed using solar cycle characteristics, like ascent time, peak sunspot number and
the length of the solar cycle. Using these statistical parameters, two mathematical formulae are developed to compute the
quantities [Q
C]
n
and [L]
n
for each nth solar cycle. It is found that the peak sunspot number and ascent time of the n+1th solar cycle correlates well with the parameters [Q
C]
n
and [L]
n
/[S
Max]
n+1 and gives a correlation coefficient of 0.97 and 0.92, respectively. Empirical relations are obtained using least square fitting,
which relates [S
Max]
n+1 with [Q
C]
n
and [T
a]
n+1 with [L]
n
/[S
Max]
n+1. These relations predict a peak of 74±10 in monthly smoothed sunspot number and an ascent time of 4.9±0.4 years for Solar
Cycle 24, when November 2008 is considered as the start time for this cycle. Three different methods, which are commonly used
to define solar cycle characteristics are used and mathematical relations developed for forecasting peak sunspot number and
ascent time of the upcoming solar cycle, are examined separately. 相似文献
20.
In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately
for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30
November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited
a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35
days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240
days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area
data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different
hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of
150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part
of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in
photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys.
438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations. 相似文献