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1.
We summarize the response of the galactic cosmic ray (CGR) intensity to the passage of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated shocks that passed the Earth during 1995 – 2009, a period that encompasses the whole of Solar Cycle 23. In ∼ 80% of cases, the GCR intensity decreased during the passage of these structures, i.e., a “Forbush decrease” occurred, while in ∼ 10% there was no significant change. In the remaining cases, the GCR intensity increased. Where there was an intensity decrease, minimum intensity was observed inside the ICME in ∼ 90% of these events. The observations confirm the role of both post-shock regions and ICMEs in the generation of these decreases, consistent with many previous studies, but contrary to the conclusion of Reames, Kahler, and Tylka (Astrophys. J. Lett. 700, L199, 2009) who, from examining a subset of ICMEs with flux-rope-like magnetic fields (magnetic clouds) argued that these are “open structures” that allow free access of particles including GCRs to their interior. In fact, we find that magnetic clouds are more likely to participate in the deepest GCR decreases than ICMEs that are not magnetic clouds.  相似文献   

2.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2011,270(2):463-483
Using the combined Greenwich (1874 – 1976) and Solar Optical Observatories Network (1977 – 2009) data on sunspot groups, we study the long-term variations in the mean daily rates of growth and decay of sunspot groups. We find that the minimum and the maximum values of the annually averaged daily mean growth rates are ≈ 52% day−1 and ≈ 183% day−1, respectively, whereas the corresponding values of the annually averaged daily mean decay rates are ≈ 21% day−1 and ≈ 44% day−1, respectively. The average value (over the period 1874 – 2009) of the growth rate is about 70% more than that of the decay rate. The growth and the decay rates vary by about 35% and 13%, respectively, on a 60-year time scale. From the beginning of Cycle 23 the growth rate is substantially decreased and near the end (2007 – 2008) the growth rate is lowest in the past about 100 years. In the extended part of the declining phase of this cycle, the decay rate steeply increased and it is largest in the beginning of the current Cycle 24. These unusual properties of the growth and the decay rates during Cycle 23 may be related to cause of the very long declining phase of this cycle with the unusually deep and prolonged current minimum. A ≈ 11-year periodicity in the growth and the decay rates is found to be highly latitude and time dependent and seems to exist mainly in the 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere. The strength of the known approximate 33 – 44-year modulation in the solar activity seems to be related to the north-south asymmetry in the growth rate. Decreasing and increasing trends in the growth and the decay rates indicate that the next 2 – 3 solar cycles will be relatively weak.  相似文献   

3.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) with R z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R z(max )=129.7±16.3.  相似文献   

4.
We study the relationship of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity with similar variations of the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field based on observational data for the Bartels rotation period # 2379 of 23 November 2007 – 19 December 2007. We develop a three-dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity based on the heliolongitudinally dependent solar wind velocity. A consistent, divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field is derived by solving Maxwell’s equations with a heliolongitudinally dependent 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity reproducing in situ observations. We consider two types of 3-D models of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, i) with a plane heliospheric neutral sheet, and ii) with the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. The theoretical calculations show that the sector structure does not significantly influence the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, as had been shown before, based on observational data. Furthermore, good agreement is found between the time profiles of the theoretically expected and experimentally obtained first harmonic waves of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity (with a correlation coefficient of 0.98±0.02). The expected 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity is inversely correlated with the modulation parameter ζ (with a correlation coefficient of −0.91±0.05), which is proportional to the product of the solar wind velocity V and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field B (ζ∼VB). The high anticorrelation between these quantities indicates that the predicted 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity mainly is caused by this basic modulation effect.  相似文献   

5.
Spotless days (i.e., days when no sunspots are observed on the Sun) occur during the interval between the declining phase of the old sunspot cycle and the rising phase of the new sunspot cycle, being greatest in number and of longest continuous length near a new cycle minimum. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the longest spotless segment (LSS) and examine its statistical relation to selected characteristic points in the sunspot time series (STS), such as the occurrences of first spotless day and sunspot maximum. The analysis has revealed statistically significant relations that appear to be of predictive value. For example, for Cycle 24 the last spotless day during its rising phase should be about August 2012 (± 9.1 months), the daily maximum sunspot number should be about 227 (± 50; occurring about January 2014±9.5 months), and the maximum Gaussian smoothed sunspot number should be about 87 (± 25; occurring about July 2014). Using the Gaussian-filtered values, slightly earlier dates of August 2011 and March 2013 are indicated for the last spotless day and sunspot maximum for Cycle 24, respectively.  相似文献   

6.
Correlations between monthly smoothed sunspot numbers at the solar-cycle maximum [R max] and duration of the ascending phase of the cycle [T rise], on the one hand, and sunspot-number parameters (values, differences and sums) near the cycle minimum, on the other hand, are studied. It is found that sunspot numbers two?–?three years around minimum correlate with R max or T rise better than those exactly at the minimum. The strongest correlation (Pearson’s r=0.93 with P<0.001 and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient r S=0.95 with P=9×10?12) proved to be between R max and the sum of the increase of activity over 30 months after the cycle minimum and the drop of activity over 30 or 36 months before the minimum. Several predictions of maximal amplitude and duration of the ascending phase for Solar Cycle 24 are given using sunspot-number parameters as precursors. All of the predictions indicate that Solar Cycle 24 is expected to reach a maximal smoothed monthly sunspot number (SSN) of 70?–?100. The prediction based on the best correlation yields the maximal amplitude of 90±12. The maximum of Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be in December 2013?–?January 2014. The rising and declining phases of Solar Cycle 24 are estimated to be about 5.0 and 6.3 years, respectively. The minimum epoch between Solar Cycles 24 and 25 is predicted to be at 2020.3 with minimal SSN of 5.1?–?5.4. We predict also that Solar Cycle 25 will be slightly stronger than Solar Cycle 24; its maximal SSN will be of 105?–?110.  相似文献   

7.
In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).  相似文献   

8.
I. Sabbah 《Solar physics》2007,245(1):207-217
Neutron monitor data observed at Climax (CL) and Huancayo/Haleakala (HU/HAL) have been used to calculate the amplitude A of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic rays (CRs). The median primary rigidity of response, R m, for these detectors encompasses the range 18 ≤R m≤46 GV and the threshold rigidity R 0 covers the range 2.97≤R 0≤12.9 GV. The daily average values of CR counts have been harmonically analyzed for each Bartels solar rotation (SR) during the period 1953 – 2001. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is cross-correlated to solar activity as measured by the sunspot number R, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength B, the z-component B z of the IMF vector, and the tilt angle ψ of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). It is anticorrelated to the solar coronal hole area (CHA) index as well as to the solar wind speed V. The wind speed V leads the amplitude by 24 SRs. The amplitude of the 27-day CR variation is better correlated to each of the these parameters during positive solar polarity (A>0) than during negative solar polarity (A<0) periods. The CR modulation differs during A>0 from that during A<0 owing to the contribution of the z-component of the IMF. It differs during A 1>0 (1971 – 1980) from that during A 2>0 (1992 – 2001) owing to solar wind speed.  相似文献   

9.
In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.  相似文献   

10.
The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of four neutron monitor stations have been employed to study the variation of cosmic ray diurnal anisotropy for a period of about 50 years (1955–2003). These neutron monitors, at Oulu ( R c = 0.78 GV), Deep River ( R c = 1.07 GV), Climax ( R c = 2.99 GV), and Huancayo ( R c = 12.91 GV) are well distributed on the earth over different latitudes and their data have been analyzed. The amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar cycle (∼11 years), while the phase varies with a period of two solar cycles (∼22 years). In addition to its variation on year-to-year basis, the average diurnal amplitude and phase has also been calculated by grouping the days for each solar cycle, viz. 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23. As a result of these groupings over solar cycles, no significant change in the diurnal vectors (amplitude as well as phase) from one cycle to other has been observed. Data were analyzed by arranging them into groups on the basis of the polarity of the solar polar magnetic field and consequently on the basis of polarity states of the heliosphere ( A > 0 and A < 0). Difference in time of maximum of diurnal anisotropy (shift to earlier hours) is observed during A < 0 (1970s, 1990s) polarity states as compared to anisotropy observed during A > 0 (1960s, 1980s). This shift in phase of diurnal anisotropy appears to be related to change in preferential entry of cosmic ray particles (via the helioequatorial plane or via solar poles) into the heliosphere due to switch of the heliosphere from one physical/magnetic state to another following the solar polar field reversal.  相似文献   

11.
A detailed correlative analysis between sunspot numbers (SSN) and tilt angle (TA) with cosmic ray intensity (CRI) in the neutron monitor energy range has been performed for the solar cycles 21, 22 and 23. It is found that solar activity parameters (SSN and TA) are highly (positive) correlated with each other and have inverse correlation with cosmic ray intensity (CRI). The ‘running cross correlation coefficient’ between cosmic ray intensity and tilt angle has also been calculated and it is found that the correlation is positive during the maxima of odd cycles 21 and 23. Moreover, the time lag analysis between CRI and SSN, and between CRI and TA has also been performed and is supported by hysteresis curves, which are wide for odd cycles and narrow for even cycles.  相似文献   

12.
Jordanova  V.K.  Thorne  R.M.  Farrugia  C.J.  Dotan  Y.  Fennell  J.F.  Thomsen  M.F.  Reeves  G.D.  McComas  D.J. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):361-375
We study the development of the terrestrial ring current during the time interval of 13–18 July, 2000, which consisted of two small to moderate geomagnetic storms followed by a great storm with indices Dst=−300 nT and Kp=9. This period of intense geomagnetic activity was caused by three interplanetary coronal mass ejecta (ICME) each driving interplanetary shocks, the last shock being very strong and reaching Earth at ∼ 14 UT on 15 July. We note that (a) the sheath region behind the third shock was characterized by B z fluctuations of ∼35 nT peak-to-peak amplitude, and (b) the ICME contained a negative to positive B z variation extending for about 1 day, with a ∼ 6-hour long negative phase and a minimum B z of about −55 nT. Both of these interplanetary sources caused considerable geomagnetic activity (Kp=8 to 9) despite their disparity as interplanetary triggers. We used our global ring current-atmosphere interaction model with initial and boundary conditions inferred from measurements from the hot plasma instruments on the Polar spacecraft and the geosynchronous Los Alamos satellites, and simulated the time evolution of H+, O+, and He+ ring current ion distributions. We found that the O+ content of the ring current increased after each shock and reached maximum values of ∼ 60% near minimum Dst of the great storm. We calculated the growth rate of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves considering for the first time wave excitation at frequencies below O+ gyrofrequency. We found that the wave gain of O+ band waves is greater and is located at larger L shells than that of the He+ band waves during this storm interval. Isotropic pitch angle distributions indicating strong plasma wave scattering were observed by the imaging proton sensor (IPS) on Polar at the locations of maximum predicted wave gain, in good agreement with model simulations.  相似文献   

13.
We discuss observations of the first galaxies, within cosmic reionization, at centimeter and millimeter wavelengths. We present a summary of current observations of the host galaxies of the most distant QSOs (z∼6). These observations reveal the gas, dust, and star formation in the host galaxies on kpc-scales. These data imply an enriched ISM in the QSO host galaxies within 1 Gyr of the big bang, and are consistent with models of coeval supermassive black hole and spheroidal galaxy formation in major mergers at high redshift. Current instruments are limited to studying truly pathologic objects at these redshifts, meaning hyper-luminous infrared galaxies (L FIR ∼1013 L ). ALMA will provide the one to two orders of magnitude improvement in millimeter astronomy required to study normal star forming galaxies (i.e. Ly-α emitters) at z∼6. ALMA will reveal, at sub-kpc spatial resolution, the thermal gas and dust—the fundamental fuel for star formation—in galaxies into cosmic reionization.  相似文献   

14.
The solar cycle 23 minimum period has been characterized by a weaker solar and interplanetary magnetic field. This provides an ideal time to study how the strength of the photospheric field affects the interplanetary magnetic flux and, in particular, how much the observed interplanetary fields of different cycle minima can be understood simply from differences in the areas of the coronal holes, as opposed to differences in the surface fields within them. In this study, we invoke smaller source surface radii in the potential-field source-surface (PFSS) model to construct a consistent picture of the observed coronal holes and the near-Earth interplanetary field strength as well as polarity measurements for the cycles 23 and 22 minimum periods. Although the source surface value of 2.5 R is typically used in PFSS applications, earlier studies have shown that using smaller source surface heights generates results that better match observations during low solar activity periods. We use photospheric field synoptic maps from Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) and find that the values of ≈ 1.9 R and ≈ 1.8 R for the cycles 22 and 23 minimum periods, respectively, produce the best results. The larger coronal holes obtained for the smaller source surface radius of cycle 23 somewhat offsets the interplanetary consequences of the lower magnetic field at their photospheric footpoints. For comparison, we also use observations from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and find that the source surface radius of ≈ 1.5 R produces better results for cycle 23, rather than ≈ 1.8 R as suggested from MWO observations. Despite this difference, our results obtained from MWO and MDI observations show a qualitative consistency regarding the origins of the interplanetary field and suggest that users of PFSS models may want to consider using these smaller values for their source surface heights as long as the solar activity is low.  相似文献   

15.
Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).  相似文献   

16.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):487-493
Three series (1876 – 1986, 1886 – 1996, and 1896 – 2006) of 111 annual values of sunspot number R z in each were subjected to spectral analysis to detect periodicities by the maximum entropy method (MEM), and the periodicities so obtained were used in a multiple regression analysis (MRA) to estimate the amplitudes and phases. All series showed roughly similar spectra with many periodicities (24 or more), but most of these were insignificant. The significant periodicities (far exceeding 2σ) were near 5, 8 – 12, 18, and 37 years. Using the amplitudes and phases of these, we obtained reconstructed series, which showed good correlations (+ 0.7 and more) with the original series. When extrapolated further in time, the reconstructed series indicated R z(max) in the ranges 80 – 101 (mean 92) for cycle 24 during years 2011 – 2014, 112 – 127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years 2022 – 2023, 115 – 120 (mean 118) for cycle 26 during years 2032 – 2034, and 100 – 113 (mean 109) for cycle 27 during 2043 – 2045.  相似文献   

17.
We have examined polar magnetic fields for the last three solar cycles, viz. Cycles 21, 22, and 23 using NSO/Kitt Peak synoptic magnetograms. In addition, we have used SOHO/MDI magnetograms to derive the polar fields during Cycle 23. Both Kitt Peak and MDI data at high latitudes (78° – 90°) in both solar hemispheres show a significant drop in the absolute value of polar fields from the late declining phase of the Solar Cycle 22 to the maximum of the Solar Cycle 23. We find that long-term changes in the absolute value of the polar field, in Cycle 23, are well correlated with changes in meridional-flow speeds that have been reported recently. We discuss the implication of this in influencing the extremely prolonged minimum experienced at the start of the current Cycle 24 and in forecasting the behavior of future solar cycles.  相似文献   

18.
An Estimate for the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2013,282(1):87-90
For the sunspot cycles in the modern era (cycle?10 to the present), the ratio of R Z(max)/R Z(36th month) equals 1.26±0.22, where R Z(max) is the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle?using smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and R Z(36th month) is the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number 36 months after cycle?minimum. For the current sunspot cycle?24, the 36th month following the cycle?minimum occurred in November 2011, measuring?61.1. Hence, cycle?24 likely will have a maximum amplitude of about 77.0±13.4 (the one-sigma prediction interval), a value well below the average R Z(max) for the modern era sunspot cycles (about 119.7±39.5).  相似文献   

19.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,243(2):205-217
For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles. However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min ) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min ) versus Rz(max )], using data for sunspot cycles 9 – 18 to predict the Rz(max ) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 – 19 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 – 23 to predict Rz(max ) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 – 2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted Rz(max ) for cycle 24 is 142±24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124±26.) This result of the precursor method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 – 200), so that whatever may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23.  相似文献   

20.
Three wavelet functions: the Morlet wavelet, the Paul wavelet, and the DOG wavelet have been respectively performed on both the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers (Rz) from January 1749 to May 2004 and the monthly group sunspot numbers (Rg) from June 1795 to December 1995 to study the evolution of the Gleissberg and Schwabe periods of solar activity. The main results obtained are (1) the two most obvious periods in both the Rz and Rg are the Schwabe and Gleissberg periods. The Schwabe period oscillated during the second half of the eighteenth century and was steady from the 1850s onward. No obvious drifting trend of the Schwabe period exists. (2) The Gleissberg period obviously drifts to longer periods the whole consideration time, and the drifting speed of the Gleissberg period is larger for Rz than for Rg. (3) Although the Schwabe-period values for Rz and Rg are about 10.7 years, the value for Rz seems slightly larger than that for Rg. The Schwabe period of Rz is highly significant after the 1820s, and the Schwabe period of Rg is highly significant over almost the whole consideration time except for about 20 years around the 1800s. The evolution of the Schwabe period for both Rz and Rg in time is similar to each other. (4) The Gleissberg period in Rz and Rg is highly significant during the whole consideration time, but this result is unreliable at the two ends of each of the time series of the data. The evolution of the Gleissberg period in Rz is similar to that in Rg.  相似文献   

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