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1.
Keith M. Miller 《Marine Geodesy》2005,28(3):219-229
Concern over the impact of change in sea level is of topical interest internationally, but for the small island states of the Caribbean, a significant increase would prove to be catastrophic. The potential problem is being addressed as part of the much larger issue of climate change, and just this year a regional Climate Change Centre was established in Belize. Means of adapting to accommodate change will be considered under the Mainstream Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) project, but initially the threat needs to be quantified. While meteorological offices have been accumulating weather data in some parts of the region for many years, sea level data is more scarce. This work puts least squares methods to test by applying them to spectral analysis of intermittent data sets acquired over periods of 6 and 9 years at two locations in Trinidad. The resulting sea level models that include 13 periodic components, datum bias, trend and atmospheric pressure are validated using fundamental historical information and observations that form the subject of discussion among local professional surveyors. Results show that while sea level at a location in North Trinidad is rising at the rate of about 1 mm a year, the change at a Southern site is about four times this amount. Horizontal movement has been measured across a tectonic fault that parts the island, and it is now apparent that there may be some vertical motion on this or some other fault lines in the region. 相似文献
2.
Susana M. Barbosa 《Marine Geodesy》2016,39(2):165-177
Satellite altimetry allows the study of sea-level long-term variability on a global and spatially uniform basis. Here quantile regression is applied to derive robust median regression trends of mean sea level as well as trends in extreme quantiles from radar altimetry time series. In contrast with ordinary least squares regression, which only provides an estimate on the rate of change of the mean of data distribution, quantile regression allows the estimation of trends at different quantiles of the data distribution, yielding a more complete picture of long-term variability. Trends derived from basin-wide averaged regional mean sea level time series are robust and similar for all quantiles, indicating that all parts of the data distribution are changing at the same rate. In contrast, trends are not robust and diverge across quantiles in the case of local time series. Trends are under- (over-)estimated in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, trends in the lowermost quantile (0.05) are larger than the median trend in the western Pacific, while trends in the uppermost quantile (0.95) are lower than the median trend in the eastern Pacific. These differences in trends in extreme mean sea level quantiles are explained by the exceptional effect of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. 相似文献
3.
Jacques Verron Pierre Sengenes Juliette Lambin Jocelyne Noubel Nathalie Steunou Amandine Guillot 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):2-21
The India-France SARAL/AltiKa mission is the first Ka-band altimetric mission dedi-cated to oceanography. The mission objectives are primarily the observation of the oceanic mesoscales but also include coastal oceanography, global and regional sea level monitoring, data assimilation, and operational oceanography. Secondary objectives include ice sheet and inland waters monitoring. One year after launch, the results widely confirm the nominal expectations in terms of accuracy, data quality and data availability in general.Today's performances are compliant with specifications with an overall observed performance for the Sea Surface Height RMS of 3.4 cm to be compared to a 4 cm requirement. Some scientific examples are provided that illustrate some salient features of today's SARAL/AltiKa data with regard to standard altimetry: data availability, data accuracy at the mesoscales, data usefulness in costal area, over ice sheet, and for inland waters. 相似文献
4.
The Carlsberg Ridge lies between the equator and the Owen fracture zone. It is the most prominent mid-ocean ridge segment
of the western Indian Ocean, which contains a number of earthquake epicenters. Satellite altimetry can be used to infer subsurface
geological structures analogous to gravity anomaly maps generated through ship-borne survey. In this study, free-air gravity
and its 3D image have been generated over the Carlsberg Ridge using a very high resolution data base, as obtained from Geosat
GM, ERS-1, Seasat and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data. As observed in this study, the Carlsberg Ridge shows a slow spreading
characteristic with a deep and wide graben (average width ∼15 km). The transform fault spacing confirms variable slow to intermediate
characteristics with first and second order discontinuities. The isostatically compensated region of the Carlsberg Ridge could
be demarcated with near zero contour values in the free-air gravity anomaly images over and along the Carlsberg Ridge axes
and over most of the fracture zone patterns. Few profiles have been generated across the Carlsberg Ridge and the characteristics
of slow/intermediate spreading ridge of various orders of discontinuity could be identified. It has also been observed in
zero contour image as well as in the characteristics of valley patterns along the ridge from NW to SE that different spreading
rates, from slow to intermediate, are occurring in different parts of the Carlsberg ridge. It maintains the morphology of
a slow spreading ridge in the NW, where the wide and deep axial valley (∼1.5–3 km) also implies the pattern of a slow spreading
ridge. However, a change in the morphology/depth of the axial valley from NW to SE indicates the nature of the Carlsberg Ridge
as a slow to intermediate spreading ridge.
For the prevailing security restrictions, lat./lon. coordinates have been omitted in few images. 相似文献
5.
中国沿岸现代海平面变化及未来趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文用线性回归分析方法，分１９８５年以前和１９９２年以前两个时段，对我国沿岸２５个验潮站近百年来的海平面资料进行了系统分析，计算了两个时段相对海平面变化的年速率和平均海面高度，论述了海平面变化的主要控制因素，并对未来海平面变化趋势进行了预测。计算结果表明，近百年来我国沿岸相对海平面在总体上不但持续上升，而且近年来上升速率普遍加快；根据海平面变化的主要控制因素变化趋向，预计到下世纪中叶前后，全球性海平面大幅度上升的可能性不大，我国沿岸区域性海乎面平均上升幅度不超过１５ｃｍ，不同岸段因地壳升降差异性大而有较大差别。 相似文献
6.
7.
THE BOUGUER ANOMALIES AND DEPTHS OF MOHOROVICIC DISCONTINUITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The South China Sea is situated at the continsntal margin of South China. In this region, there are both continental and oceanic crusts. The values of Bouguer gravity anomalies on the continental shelf are low positive or low negative. Because the depth of the Mohorovicic discontinuity in this region is about 26-32 km below sea level, the crust belongs to the continental type. The values of Bouguer gravity anomalies in the deep-sea region are more than 250 mgal and the depth of the Moho-surface is about 10-15 km below sea level, so the crust is of oceanic type. The values of gravity anomalies and depths of the Moho-surface, obtained over the continental (and island) slope, range between those regions mentioned above, so the crust belongs to the transitional type. The continental crust is inferred to be directly in contact with the oceanic crust as a result of a lithospheric fault. 相似文献
8.
中国近海海平面变化区域相关分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
由测高卫星升、降弧段海面高交叉点约束方法,用TOPEX／POSEIDON测高数据计算了黄海、东海、南海海域的海平面变化;分析了三个海区海平面变化的相关性;在频域内讨论了它们之间的相干性;分析了海水面积随纬度带的变化对不同纬度分布的海区海平面变化量的影响。 相似文献
9.
10.
太平洋卫星测高重力场与地球动力学特征 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
通过多卫星测高数据的综合处理，获得西太平洋卫星测高重力场，进行不同尺度、深度构造动力信息的分离，探讨诸边缘海盆的地球动力学问题。测高大地水准面反映了研究区板块相互作用的特点，其高频成分可以刻画各海盆的构造特征。测高空间重力异常也可刻画陆架构造及盆地分布，由其推算出的海底地形含有大量的海底构造信息。各边缘海盆的莫霍面埋深具有往南变浅的趋势，与菲律宾海各海盆的莫霍面埋深大致相当，说明岛弧两侧的构造动力强度基本相似。大尺度地幔流应力场总体上反映了欧亚板块向东南蠕散和太平洋板块向北西扩张的特点；日本海北侧和南海巽他陆架的中尺度上地幔对流与地幔柱之间有着密切关系，西菲律宾海的上地幔对流强化了日本-琉球-台湾-菲律宾岛弧的活动强度；小尺度地幔流主要限于软流圈层内部，在各海盆分散，而在冲绳海槽和马里亚纳海槽则会聚，可与均衡重力异常类比。还讨论了大、中、小地幔流体系的特点及相互之间的关系，籍以阐明海盆及海槽演化的地球动力学过程。 相似文献
11.
Outputs from simulations performed with current atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) are used to investigate the evolution of sea ice over the 20th and 21st centuries. We first use the results from the “Climate of the 20th Century Experiment” to assess the ability of these models to reproduce the observed sea ice cover changes over the periods 1981–2000 and 1951–2000. The projected sea ice changes over the 21st century in response to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B are then examined. Overall, there is a large uncertainty in simulating the present-day sea ice coverage and thickness and in predicting sea ice changes in both hemispheres. Over the period 1981–2000, we find that the multimodel average sea ice extent agrees reasonably well with observations in both hemipsheres despite the wide differences between the models. The largest uncertainties appear in the Southern Hemisphere. The climate change projections over the 21st century reveal that the annual mean sea ice extent decreases at similar rates in both hemispheres, and that the reduction in annual mean sea ice volume is about twice that of sea ice extent reduction in the Northern Hemisphere, in agreement with earlier studies. We show that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of sea ice extent increases in both hemispheres in a warming climate, with a larger magnitude in the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, it appears that the seasonal cycle of ice extent is more affected than the one of ice volume. By the end of the 21st century, half of the model population displays an ice-free Arctic Ocean in late summer. 相似文献
12.
《African Journal of Marine Science》2013,35(3):443-452
An exercise in ‘data archaeology’ at Ascension Island has provided an estimate of sea level change between 1955 and 2001.5 (the mid-point of a recent dataset spanning 1993–2009). That average trend of 0.93 mm y?1 (SE 0.69) compares to a larger rate during 1993–2009 itself of 2.55 (SE 0.13) and 2.07 (SE 0.30) mm y?1 from tide gauge and altimeter data respectively, suggesting a recent acceleration in sea level rise. An ocean model and steric height datasets have been used for comparison to the measurements, with the conclusion that the acceleration was probably at least partly due to a steric height increase. This exercise is based on only one month of historical tide gauge data and is admittedly on the useful limit for long-term sea level studies. In addition, it is unfortunate that the tide gauge benchmark installed in 1955 has disappeared, even if one can estimate its height relative to modern marks. Nevertheless, the study does provide information of interest to climate studies, enables limits to be inferred on the real changes, and provides background information for other coastal studies. Most importantly, it is intended as a demonstration of the value of similar exercises where short historical records exist. 相似文献
13.
Sea-level change studies from altimetric satellites are reliant on range stability of the sea surface heights computed from orbital positioning and geophysically corrected data. One such correction, namely the wet tropospheric delay induced by the highly variable atmospheric water vapor content, is provided by radiometers onboard ERS-2 and TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P). In this study the long-term stability of the ERS-2 microwave radiometer (E2MR) and the T/P microwave radiometer (TMR) are investigated with the observed drift in the brightness temperatures approximated by reference to the coldest temperatures over the oceans. The E2MR stability is characterized by a gain anomaly fall in 1996 and a drift in the 23.8 GHz channel. For the TMR, investigations show that the dominant drift is about 0.2 K/year in the 18 GHz channel over the first 7-8 years but stabilizing and even decreasing slightly thereafter. In contrast, the 21 GHz and 37 GHz channels are comparatively stable. Utilizing correction formulae a modified wet tropospheric range is inferred from “small-change” analysis of the radiometric correction given on the altimetric Geophysical Data Records. The accuracy of this formulism is validated by independent comparison against GPS derived wet tropospheric delays inferred at 14 coastal IGS stations with near continuous data from September 1992 through to the present day. Comparisons between GPS results for ERS-2 and T/P show that the E2MR path delay is 14 mm short. For T/P, the spatial distribution of the wet tropospheric enhancement is further investigated to show that the nonuniformity can equate to a deviation in sea-level height change of about 0.1 mm/year compared with global average sea-level change. Finally, the altimetric range stability of T/P is revisited by comparison against time series from the global network of tide gauges. Analysis shows that the validated TMR drift correction results in a residual trend of -0.27 ± 0.11 mm/yr which is not significant at the 3σ level. 相似文献
14.
Sea level changes in the Baltic Sea are dominated by internal, short-term variations that are mostly caused by the ephemeral nature of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic area. Tides are small and their influence decreases from western parts of the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Proper. Superimposed to the large short-term sea level changes (up to few decimeters from day to day) are seasonal and interannual variations (centimeters to decimeters). This study focuses on the comparison of sea surface heights obtained from observations and from a high resolution oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. From this comparison, the accuracy of the modeled sea surface variations is evaluated, which is a necessary precondition for the further use of the oceanographic model in geodetic applications. The model reproduces all observed Baltic sea level variations very reliably with an accuracy of 5 to 9 cm (rms) for short-term variations (up to 2 months) and 8 cm (rms) for long-term variations (>2 months). An additional improvement of the model can be attained by including long-period sea level variations of the North Sea. The model performs well also in the case of extreme sea level events, as is shown for a major storm surge that occurred at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in November 1995. 相似文献
15.
J. Gómez-Enri M. A. Srokosz C. P. Gommenginger P. G. Challenor M. P. Milagro-Pérez 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3):217-233
An adequate conceptual definition of the geoid is essential for the unambiguous combination of satellite tracking data, satellite al‐timetry, and surface gravity measurements to obtain sea surface topography. The factors influencing the selection of a particular level surface of the earth's gravity field include the purpose(s) for which the geoid is to be used at the 5‐cm level, and the types of data to be used in achieving these objectives. The principal reasons for high precision determinations of the shape of the geoid are: the determination of sea surface topography for applications in oceanography; and the unification of leveling datums with a resolution equivalent to that of first order geodetic leveling. A conceptual definition of the geoid acceptable to oceanographers would be: The geoid for a selected epoch of measurement is that level surface of the earth's gravity field in relation to which the average non‐tidal (or quasi‐stationary) sea surface topography is zero as sampled globally in ocean regions. In the geodetic context, it would be convenient, though not essential, to modify this definition in such a way that the global sea surface topography had zero mean as sampled for evaluations of the geodetic boundary value problem. In either case, a basis exists for unifying all leveling datums serving areas in excess of 106 km2, using either gravity anomaly data for the regions or precise determinations of position at first order bench marks. Unfavorable signal‐to‐noise ratios can pose problems when dealing with datums serving smaller areas. Elevation and gravity data banks must be correctly referenced to leveling datums prior to use in sea surface topography determinations. A recent attempt to upgrade the Australian gravity anomaly data bank indicates that all current data banks of this type are inadequate for the task. It is unlikely that time variations in the radial position of the geoid as conceptually defined above, will exceed ±5 cm per century, provided the rate of earth expansion was less than 1 part in 1010 yr‐l and there is no dramatic change in the present rate of secular change in Mean Sea Level. 相似文献
16.
《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(3-4):355-366
Sea surface slope computed from along-track Jason-1 and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data at ocean mesoscale wavelengths are compared to determine the equivalent 1 Hz instrument height noise of the Poseidon-2 and TOPEX altimeters. This geophysical evaluation shows that the Ku-band 1-Hz range noise for both instruments is better than 1.7 cm at 2 m significant wave heights (H1/3), exceeding error budget requirements for both missions. Furthermore, we show that the quality of these instruments allows optimal filtering of the 1-Hz along-track sea surface height data for sea surface slopes that can be used to calculate cross track geostrophic velocity anomalies at the baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation to better than 5 cm/sec precision along 87.5% of the satellite ground track between 2 and 60 degrees absolute latitude over the deep abyssal ocean (depths greater than 1000 m). This level of precision will facilitate scientific studies of surface geostrophic velocity variability using data from the Jason-1 and T/P Tandem Mission. 相似文献
17.
Huan-Chin Kao Kuo-Hsin Tseng C.K. Shum Tzu-Pang Tseng Yuan-Yuan Jia 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(4):327-343
Satellite altimetry has been proven as an effective technology to accurately measure water level, ice elevation, and flat land surface changes since the 1990s. To overcome limitations of pulse-limited altimetry, new altimetric missions such as Cryosat-2 and Satellite with ARgos and AltiKa (SARAL/AltiKa), have been designed to have higher along-track spatial resolution to measure more accurately inland water levels for small water bodies, and coastal sea level changes. In this study, we evaluate the performance of Cryosat-2 low-resolution (LRM) and SARin modes and SARAL/AltiKa Ka-band data on two connected lakes in central Tibetan Plateau, and in the coastal region of Taiwan. Results are compared with in situ tide gauge data in Taiwan and altimetric lake level time series from the CNES Hydroweb database. Our results show that water level change trends observed by Cryosat-2 20-Hz retracked observations, the SARAL/AltiKa 40-Hz Ice-1 retracked data, and the Hydroweb measurements are consistent with the estimated water level trend of ～0.30?m/y, during 2011–2017, and 2013–2015, for the Tibetan Migriggyangzham Co and Dorsoidong Co, respectively. For the coastal region, the performance of SARAL/AltiKa is better than that of Cryosat-2 LRM data in Taiwan. This finding demonstrates the superiority of the Ka-band over Ku-band radar altimetry. 相似文献
18.
Sea surface slope computed from along-track Jason-1 and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimeter data at ocean mesoscale wavelengths are compared to determine the equivalent 1 Hz instrument height noise of the Poseidon-2 and TOPEX altimeters. This geophysical evaluation shows that the Ku-band 1-Hz range noise for both instruments is better than 1.7 cm at 2 m significant wave heights (H1/3), exceeding error budget requirements for both missions. Furthermore, we show that the quality of these instruments allows optimal filtering of the 1-Hz along-track sea surface height data for sea surface slopes that can be used to calculate cross track geostrophic velocity anomalies at the baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation to better than 5 cm/sec precision along 87.5% of the satellite ground track between 2 and 60 degrees absolute latitude over the deep abyssal ocean (depths greater than 1000 m). This level of precision will facilitate scientific studies of surface geostrophic velocity variability using data from the Jason-1 and T/P Tandem Mission. 相似文献
19.
A probabilistic methodology to estimate future coastal flood risk due to sea level rise 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
In this paper we present a methodology to estimate the probability of future coastal flooding given uncertainty over possible sea level rise. We take as an example the range of sea level rise magnitudes for 2100 contained in the IPCC Third Assessment Report [Church, J.A., Gregory, J.M., Huybrechts, P., Kuhn, M., Lambeck, K., Nhuan, M.T., Qin, D., Woodworth, P.L., Anisimov, O.A., Bryan, F.O., Cazenave, A., Dixon, K.W., Fitzharris, B.B., Flato, G.M., Ganopolski, A., Gornitz, V., Lowe, J.A., Noda, A., Oberhuber, J.M., O'Farrell, S.P., Ohmura, A., Oppenheimer, M., Peltier, W.R., Raper, S.C.B., Ritz, C., Russell, G.L., Schlosser, E., Shum, C.K., Stocker, T.F., Stouffer, R.J., van de Wal, R.S.W., Voss, R., Wiebe, E.C., Wild, M., Wingham, D.J. and Zwally, H.J., 2001. Changes in sea level. In Houghton, J.T. et al. (eds), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 881pp.] and infer a plausible probability distribution for this range. We then use a Monte Carlo procedure to sample from this distribution and use the resulting values as an additional boundary forcing for a two-dimensional model of coastal inundation used to simulate a 1 in 200 year extreme water level event. This yields an ensemble of simulations for an event of this magnitude occurring in 2100, where each member represents a different possible scenario of sea level rise by this time. We then develop a methodology to approximate the probability of flooding in each model grid cell over the ensemble and by combining these hazards maps with maps of land use values (consequence) we are able to estimate spatial contributions to flood risk that can aid planning and investment decisions. The method is then applied to a 32 km section of the UK coast in Somerset, South-West England and used to estimate the monetary losses and risk due a 1 in 200 year recurrence interval event under: (a) current conditions; (b) with the IPCC's most plausible value for sea level rise by 2100 (0.48 m) and (c) using the above methodology to fully account for uncertainty over possible sea level rise. The analysis shows that undertaking a risk assessment using the most plausible sea level rise value may significantly underestimate monetary losses as it fails to account for the impact of low probability, high consequence events. The developed method provides an objective basis for decisions regarding future defence spending and can be easily extended to consider other sources of uncertainty such as changing event frequency–magnitude distribution, changing storm surge conditions or model structural uncertainty, either singly or in combination as joint probabilities. 相似文献
20.
Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme.As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment.In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced. 相似文献