共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 171 毫秒
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人水系统是一个十分复杂的巨系统,众多因子时刻处于不断变化之中,水资源开发利用也应适应这种不断变化的特性。当然,也不是被动的、随意的适应,需要遵循一定规律和原则,实现一定目标,正确运用水资源适应性利用理论。因此,研究水资源适应性利用问题具有重要的意义。在笔者前期提出的水资源适应性利用理论的基础上,分析了水资源适应性利用方案制定的思路,即"确定--适应--评估--反馈--再确定"的循环路径;提出了水资源适应性利用理论的应用规则,包括遵循两大规律、符合四大原则、肩负三大任务、具有四大功能,是判断如何应用水资源适应性利用理论的依据;对水资源适应性利用的关键问题进行论述,提出了进一步研究的途径和展望;最后以南水北调中线水源区为例介绍水资源适应性利用理论的应用前景。研究认为,水资源适应性利用是一项复杂的系统工程,需要一套完善的理论和方法;需要进一步研究水资源适应性利用的判别标准及量化方法、定量测度及评估方法、优化配置模型、规划方法、预警评价与综合调控等,为进一步研究和应用水资源适应性利用理论奠定基础和提供工具。 相似文献
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本文提出了适应湿润半湿润地区水资源评估的水文模拟方法，对水资源总量，地下水量，陆面蒸散发和蒸散发能力等的评估模拟问题进行了分析研究，应用结果表明，该方法具有理论系统性，成果客观性和生产实用性。并通过水文模型参数的规律性研究，初步解决了缺乏水文资料地区的水资源评估问题。 相似文献
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复杂流域水资源变化模拟的自适应系统识别单元模型 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
针对复杂流域水资源变化模拟这一难点问题,基于单元模型思想,依据水量平衡原理,采用水文系统识别方法,提出了自适应系统识别单元模型(ASIU),并在塔里木河流域进行应用检验。该模型方法集单元模型方法、水量平衡模型方法、水文系统识别方法之优点,能实时“自适应”模拟复杂流域水资源系统变化。通过应用实例分析,可以看出该模型方法具有显著的“自适应”、“适用于复杂流域”的优点,可为复杂流域水量调度和水资源管理提供基础模型和数据,具有重要的理论及应用意义。 相似文献
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河湖水系连通的关键科学问题与研究方向 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
水资源时空分布不均,与经济社会格局不匹配,严重制约了中国的可持续发展。中国水情复杂,河湖水系正面临洪涝频繁、供水不足、河湖萎缩、水生态退化、水环境污染等诸多问题。面向国家发展新战略要求和现代化目标,有效解决复杂水问题,是新形势下生态文明建设和水资源可持续利用的重大需求。积极推进河湖水系连通,着力提高水资源统筹配置能力、河湖健康保障能力和水旱灾害抵御能力,是科学治水兴水的重大战略;开展深入的理论与技术研究是科学推进河湖水系连通的当务之急,也是治水兴水保障生态文明建设、支撑国家现代化进程的重大需求,具有重大意义。在分析全国河湖水系面临问题的基础上,讨论了河湖水系连通研究的必要性和迫切性,分析提出了河湖水系连通的三个关键科学问题及其研究框架,并对河湖水系连通的重要研究方向进行了探讨。 相似文献
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艾比湖流域水资源承载力综合评价 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
通过对系统内在作用机制的分析,以新疆艾比湖流域为例,利用模糊层次分析原理建立了流域水资源承载力综合评价指标体系并对其进行了量化分析。借助德尔菲专家调查法,将模糊层次分析法运用到研究区水资源承载力综合评价指标权重的求解中,对评价指标、具体评价过程和应用方法进行了分析说明。并预测了研究区未来规划水平年水资源承载力的发展趋势和方向。提出了该区域社会经济发展和水资源配置的规划方向,并探讨提高该区域水资源承载力的良策。这也为其它区域的水资源可持续开发利用研究提供了一定的借鉴和参考。 相似文献
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新疆博尔塔拉河干流段地表水地下水转化关系的系统分析法 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
本文通过对博尔塔拉河干流段地质构造、水文地质条件和地表径流特征分析研究，在揭示了地表水、地下水之间转化关系的基础上，采用系统分析的方法，建立水资源转换模型，计算不同河段的转换量及其水资源的重复利用量，为计算和评价水资源转换的复杂系统提供了一种新的计算方法。 相似文献
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新时代地理复杂性的内涵 总被引：22，自引：8，他引：14
20世纪以来,经地理学者不断探索和努力,地理学已经形成了其特有的学科特征。首先从认知方法和思维角度,阐述了新时代地理学所面临的困境;从新技术、新秩序、新数据、新方法以及新动因等方面,诠释了地理学的新时代特征。其次,针对地理区域性的新内涵和地理综合性研究所需的新方法,提出了复杂性研究是地理学成功的新路径,并认为复杂性是地理学研究的第三特征。再次,重点讨论了地理研究存在的空间复杂格局、时间复杂过程和时空复杂机制,进而解释了地理复杂系统的基本概念,并就地理复杂系统的核心问题提供了相应的研究方法。最后,提出了新时代地理学面临的新挑战和新要求。 相似文献
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区域水资源与经济社会耦合系统 可持续发展的量化分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
通过对水资源－生态环境－经济社会耦合系统互动关系的分析和对该耦合系统可持续发展模式的探讨,利用模糊优选模型将多个评价指标转化为单一指标,采用模糊隶属度描述可持续度来衡量复杂水资源系统可持续发展水平的评价方法,并结合辽宁省水资源开发与利用的实际情况,研究区域水资源可持续利用与经济社会协调发展的关系。研究结果表明,目前辽宁水资源系统可持续发展水平相对较低(全省水资源系统的可持续度仅为0.2456),尚有较大的开发潜力和提升空间。研究成果可为辽宁省水资源可持续利用及其管理提供定量的决策依据。 相似文献
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Multi-object approach and its application to adaptive water management under climate change 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely (1) the water resources vulnerability (V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity (S) and resilience (C) of climate change impact on water resources, and (2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development (EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality (LI). To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function (VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability (V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment (DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030. 相似文献
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《地理学报(英文版)》2017,(3)
This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change.Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system,a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive management for the demands of water sustainable use,water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change.For this study in China,two key indicators are proposed,namely(1) the water resources vulnerability(V) that was represented by integrated sensitivity(S) and resilience(C) of climate change impact on water resources,and(2) the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment,marked by DD,that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development(EG) based on the amount of GDP and the water environment and relative eco-system quality(LI).To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management,a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function,called as VDD=DD/V.This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy,called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls,i.e.,the control of total water use by the total water resources allocation,the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand management and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the Eastern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River,Yellow River,Haihe River and Huaihe River.It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function(VDD) and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable.Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more appreciable through new water policy of the three red line controls,which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability(V) and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socioeconomy and water environment(DD) for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in 2030. 相似文献
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中国新型城镇化与城市医疗资源空间适配性研究 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
为探究中国城市医疗资源配置的演化动向及与新型城镇化发展适配的影响机制,运用标准差椭圆、经济重心、泰尔指数、探索性数据分析、耦合协调度模型及动态空间杜宾模型展开研究,发现：① 医疗资源分布空间异质性明显,医疗资源配置优化和空间再组织使得城市群成为医疗资源区块式聚集形态载体。② 医疗资源空间错配现象逐渐改善,适配呈逐步均衡化,城市群的核心城市和次级中心城市外部性带动的适配组团化现象逐渐明显。③ 福利效应、需求驱动及政府引导均推动了医疗资源与新型城镇化的空间适配,而市场导向对邻近区域的影响更强。 相似文献
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Transboundary rivers have important geopolitical and geo-economic connotations, but riparian states of transboundary rivers are often driven by their own rapid population growth and economic development to be-come involved in regional conflicts about the development and use of water resources. Therefore, finding a balance between the need for fair and reasonable development of water resources and the effective protection of environment from an ecological perspective has become a major problem faced by the international community. This paper begins with consideration of international water laws related to transboundary rivers and then reviews advances in the research on benefit-sharing, ecological compensation mechanisms, and adaptive management systems. We believe that existing international water laws form a complete legal system and that more attention needs to be paid to transboundary cooperation and sustainable water resource use. With respect to how transboundary water conflicts are resolved, there is a trend to move away from single water resource allocation (a zero-sum game) to benefit-sharing in order to achieve a win-win situation for riparian states, but there are still some difficulties in transboundary ecological compensation. In China, the central government has paid attention to horizontal ecological compensation between upstream and downstream, offering guidance to promote establishment of inter-province ecological compensation. Based on existing practice, horizontal ecological compensations are still in their infancy, small in scale, supported by a weak legal system, lacking market mechanisms to encourage their use and relying on fiscal transfers as the method of payment. In the future, China will need to intensify its research on legal system development, international cooperation, and benefit-sharing as these impact transboundary water resources. Because government can be seen as a management department with multiple identities (enabler, regulator and buyer), to improve adaptive transboundary ecological compensation mechanisms, government must develop as soon as possible data sharing platforms, standards of water consumption behaviors and intergovernmental policies (or ordinances). 相似文献
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基于水利益共享的跨境流域水资源多目标分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河为例 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
以水利益共享代替分水的理念有利于充分发挥水资源效益和减少区域矛盾冲突,但由于缺乏具体可实施的分配模式一直停留在设想阶段。基于水利益共享理念,建立跨境流域水资源多目标分配指标体系,并结合澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源利用现状及需求,提出澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源多目标分配模型。为基于水利益共享的跨境水资源多目标分配提供了具有充分可操作性的指标体系和分配模型,有助于推进跨境流域水利益共享的实施,实现区域双边或多边在水资源利用上的共赢和发展目标。 相似文献
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中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在界定水资源系统韧性概念的基础上，综合应用赋权法、SBM-DEA模型及发展协调度模型对2000—2016年全国31个省区的区域水资源系统的效率、韧性以及两者之间的发展协调关系进行评价。结果如下：① 中国区域水资源系统效率整体上处于非有效区，在研究期间呈现出在波动中上升的趋势。② 中国区域水资源系统韧性的平均值为0.39，总体水平较低，研究期间整体上呈波动上升趋势。③ 中国区域水资源系统效率与韧性的发展度总体呈现平稳上升—较快上升—急剧下降—上升的趋势，呈倒“U”型发展；协调度在研究期间呈现波动中上升趋势，大部分省区的发展度较好，而协调度较弱。④ 2000—2016年，水资源效率与韧性的发展协调度一直维持着“东?中?西”阶梯式递减格局，失调省区的数量降低，初级协调、中级协调、良好协调省区的数量逐渐提升，整体向协调趋势发展；空间格局上呈现由2000年倒“E”型对称式分布格局向如今北部围绕天津、中部围绕上海、南部围绕广东的三级格局演变，格局分布与中国三大经济区基本吻合，可知中国水资源系统效率与韧性的发展协调水平与经济发展水平之间有明显的关系。 相似文献