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2.
The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds. 相似文献
3.
Emily Tyler Anya Boyd Kim Coetzee Marta Torres Gunfaus Harald Winkler 《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):770-776
The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries. 相似文献
4.
新疆呼图壁河“99·7’’洪水成因分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
依据有关气象与水文资料对新疆呼图壁河1999年7月20日12时发生的大洪水进行了分析,从而揭示呼图壁河“99．7”洪水发生、发展的成因。 相似文献
5.
6.
Ann Henderson-Sellers 《Climatic change》2010,100(1):215-227
Over the century of ‘Climatic Change’ volumes and the 33 years that they span the climate has changed. Here I consider the
challenge of interdisciplinary communication to which the first 99 volumes of this journal are dedicated. Have we succeeded
and have climatic change researchers shared findings with a broader audience? If this journal has been successful, should
the editorial board and publishers now consider new modes of communicating research to a still wider public, say by hiring
a communication cartoonist or with an interactive blog? 相似文献
7.
Louise Bedsworth 《Climatic change》2012,111(1):119-133
A changing climate will exacerbate many of the problems currently faced by California’s public health institutions. The public
health impacts of climate change include: an increase in extreme heat events and associated increases in heat-related morbidity
and mortality, increases in the frequency and severity of air pollution episodes, shifts in the range and incidence of vector-borne
diseases, increases in the severity of wildfire, increased risks of drought and flooding, and other extreme events. This article
assesses the readiness of California’s public health institutions to cope with the changes that will accompany a changing
climate and how they relate to strategies laid out in the state’s Climate Adaptation Strategy. County-level health offices
are the front line actors to preserve public health in the face of numerous threats, including climate change. Survey results
show that local health officers in California believe that climate change is a serious threat to public health, but feel that
they lack the funding and resources to reduce this risk. Local health agencies also have a number of tools in place that will
be helpful for preparing for a changing climate. 相似文献
8.
Successful adaptation assumes the availability of appropriate information for groups potentially impacted by climate change. This research examines information available to help farmers in the Canadian Prairies to adapt, with focus on information related to soil and water conservation practices, such as preserving wetlands and maintaining shelterbelts and groundcover, considered particularly important for this region. Results of 28 semi-structured interviews carried out with producers in two Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba, revealed that information regarding soil and water conservation practices comes from a variety of sources. These included industry, government, producer and conservation organizations, social sources of information and personal experience, and media. Producers were more open to new practices when they could learn them through observation, trials, and two-way dialogue. There appears to be a general lack of producer organization involvement, and dearth of government information, direction, and coordination for climate change adaptation. Information from government and producer organizations can be important for the co-production of knowledge that can lead to successful adaptation. 相似文献
9.
Arnol’d’s Second Nonlinear Stability Theorem for General Multilayer Quasi-geostrophic Model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Arnol’d’s second nonlinear stability criterion for motions governed by a general multilayer quasi-geostiophic model is established. The model allows arbitrary density jumps and layer thickness, and at the top and the bottom of the fluid, the boundary condition is either free or rigid. The criterion is obtained by the establishment of the upper bounds of disturbance energy and potential enstrophy in terms of the initial disturbance field. 相似文献
10.
１９９９年,对于吉林气象事业发展,机遇与挑战并存,希望与困难同在。如何进一步实现快速、健康、稳定发展,我认为要着力把握好以下四点：一、进一步健全决策气象服务体系,加强气象服务工作中国气象局马鹤年副局长在全国气象局长会议上指出：“进一步健全气象服务体系,是在新形势下加快气象事业发展的一次重要机遇。进一步健全气象服务体系,要在‘健全’两字上作文章,文章要靠大家来作。”从我省实际看,过去多年来,各地决策服务虽然做了富有成效的工作,积累了不少经验,但就总体而言,决策气象服务的现代化,专业化程度还不高,服… 相似文献
11.
Consumers’ knowledge about climate change 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Several studies have unveiled various misconceptions about climate change that the public holds, for instance, confusion about climate change and ozone depletion. However, so far, there has been no uniform and standardized way to measure climate-related knowledge, which complicates comparisons between different countries or samples. To develop an extensive knowledge scale, we therefore examined the Swiss public??s understanding of climate change in a mail survey and related this scale to attitudes toward climate change. We thereby aimed to consider a broad range of climate-related knowledge, namely physical knowledge about CO2 and the greenhouse effect, knowledge about climate change and its causes, knowledge about the expected consequences of climate change, and action-related knowledge. The questionnaire included items of different degrees of difficulty, ranging from knowledge that is covered by newspapers to experts?? knowledge. Our findings indicate that people still hold several misconceptions, although people??s knowledge related to CO2 seems to have increased compared to previous studies. Of all knowledge subscales, knowledge about climate change and causes was most strongly related to attitudes toward climate change. 相似文献
12.
咸宁1993年夏季(5～8月)是一个前所未有的“凉夏”。气温异常偏低,日照比历年同期少三成,降水时空分布不均,北部正常,南部特多,造成崇阳、通城两县洪涝灾害。现就1993年夏季的几个气候异常特征分析如下: 1 气温异常偏低 1993年夏季,咸宁温泉整个夏季的平均气温比历年平均值偏低1.3℃,比历史上有名的1980年的“凉夏”还低0.3℃。分析全区各月的温度情况,除六月份比历年平均值偏高0.5℃～0.8℃以外,其余三个月大部县市都偏低1℃以上(见表1)。 相似文献
13.
Africa is growing rapidly both in terms of population size and economically. It is also becoming increasingly clear that fossil fuels impose a high price on society through local environmental pollution and Africa’s particular vulnerability to climate change. At the same time, Africa has an excellent renewable energy potential and prices for renewable energy are reaching the price range of fossil fuels. Comparing results from state-of-the-art Integrated Assessment Models we find different options for achieving a sustainable energy supply in Africa. They have in common, however, that strong economic development is considered compatible with the 2°C climate target. Taking both challenges and appropriate solutions into account, some models find that a complete switch to renewable energy in electricity production is possible in the medium term. The continental analysis identifies important synergy effects, in particular the exchange of electricity between neighbouring countries. The optimal energy mix varies considerably between African countries, but there is sufficient renewable energy for each country. The intermittency and higher capital intensity of renewable energy are important challenges, but proven solutions are available for them. In addition, we analyse the political economy of a sustainable energy transition in Africa.
Key policy insights
An almost complete shift towards renewable energy (RE) is considered feasible and affordable in Africa.
By 2050, electricity generation could be sourced largely from solar, wind and hydro power.
Prices for RE in Africa are now within the price range of fossil fuels, partly due to the excellent RE potential.
The optimal energy mix varies strongly between countries, but RE is sufficiently available everywhere.
Addressing intermittency is possible, but requires investments and cooperation on the grid.
14.
In this essay we discuss the development of and estimation of uncertainties in the global surface temperature record. We briefly
discuss the similarities in and differences between the records from the institutions that produce such series. We then consider
the numerous issues that must be addressed to enable accurate estimates to be derived. We consider these in their order of
importance with respect to the record: biases in the sea surface temperature data, exposure of land-based thermometers before
about 1900, urbanization effects in some series, and, finally, the homogeneity of individual land-based records. 相似文献
15.
本文对１９９４年影响广西的热带气旋特征作了系统分析，认为它们具有多、深、长、重四大特征，在９４’广西特大洪涝灾害的形成中扮演了一个极重要的角色。西南季风扰动入海发展的热带气旋类型为丰富我国热带天气学内容提供了新的天气事实。 相似文献
16.
世界气象组织将今年世界气象日的主题定名为“气象为体育服务”。我省各级气象部门领导和学会组织高度重视,紧紧围绕这一主题,广泛开展各种形式的纪念活动,宣传体育与气象的关系、促进体育事业的腾飞和气象业务现代化建设。取得了良好的社会效果。 相似文献
17.
Increase in the amplitudes of microseisms within the range from the tenths of hertz to 10 kHz leads to increase in the values of air polar conductivity and to decrease in atmospheric electric field. As the frequency of microseisms decreases, the efficiency of microseismic impact increases. In case of low amplitudes of microseisms, decrease in atmospheric electric field is observed only as a result of multimonth active impact on the geologic environment. 相似文献
18.
Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.
Key policy insights
South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.
Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.
Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.
19.
1998年,是吉林省气象事业深化改革。加快发展的关键一年。全省各极气象部门如何抓住机遇,解放思想、发展自身、阔步前进,我认为必须把握好如下五个问题：一认清形势,正确把握1998年气象工作的总体思路1998年,对全省气象部门来说,机遇难得,但更多的是挑战。从全省经济发展态势看,工业结构性矛盾更加突出,多数企业面临更加严峻的市场竞争环境,相当一批企业在竞争中处于不利地位,进一步发展十分困难。外部环境很可能为气象科技服务的开展带来一定影响,增加了服务收费难度。从气象部门自身发展看,近几年来,气象事业经费主渠道投入… 相似文献
20.
Sir Anthony Brenton 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):541-546
The concept of ‘Great Powers’ extends well beyond its nineteenth century origins to current business in, for example, the EU, the UN Security Council, and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Such core groups can be crucial to finding agreement in complex and fractured negotiations. Climate change was not initially seen as an issue for the Great Power-type architecture. The problem was of universal concern, requiring universal involvement. Moreover, climate's natural great powers (the EU, the US, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, India, and Canada) split into three antagonistic camps: the EU pressing for sharp emissions reductions; the US, with the other developed powers, much more cautious; and China, India, and Brazil determined that action should be confined to the developed world. These divisions contributed hugely to the ineffectiveness of both the 1992 Rio convention and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. In addition, as non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; particularly Chinese) emissions fast outgrew OECD emissions, their exclusion from any constraint became visibly untenable. So, from 2005 on, the Great Powers began to meet more closely in what became the Major Economies Forum. That cooperation contributed significantly to the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. The climate problem is of course far from being solved, but maintaining Great Power cooperation will be crucial to further progress. 相似文献