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1.
Earthquake losses due to ground failure 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Juliet F. Bird 《Engineering Geology》2004,75(2):147-179
Ground shaking is widely considered to be the primary cause of damage to structures, loss of life and injuries due to earthquakes. Nonetheless, there are numerous examples of earthquakes where the losses due to earthquake-induced ground failure have been significant. Whereas ground shaking causes structural and non-structural damage, with associated loss of function and income, ground failure is less likely to cause spectacular structural collapses, but is frequently the cause of major disruptions, particularly to lifelines, which can lead to prolonged loss of function and income, even for undamaged areas.Those involved in earthquake loss modelling are currently presented with three choices with respect to the incorporation of ground failure: they can choose to ignore it, assuming that any estimation of losses caused by shaking would effectively subsume the impact of these secondary hazards; they can include ground failure in a simple manner, using published approaches based upon qualitative data and a large degree of judgement; or, they can opt for a detailed site- or region-specific assessment of damage due to ground failure, with the associated time and expense.This paper presents a summary of the principal features of earthquake losses incurred in damaging earthquakes over the last 15 years. Survey data are impartially analysed, considering both ground failure and ground shaking as sources of damage, and their relative contribution to overall damage in each section of the regional infrastructure is presented. There are many other variables influencing these contributions, including the size of the earthquake, the economic status of the affected region, local geology and terrain and the building stock, which have been considered.The findings of the study are discussed from the point of view of loss modelling and which components of a model should merit the most time and resource allocation. The general assumption that ground shaking is the principal cause of damage and loss is strongly supported by the study. However, there are a number of scenarios identified where the failure to appropriately include the effects of ground failure would lead to unrealistic loss projections. Such scenarios include the assessment of building losses in small zones rather than on a regional basis, and the incorporation of lifeline damage or disruption and indirect losses into a model. 相似文献
2.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
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Cascading effects are usually one of the common ways through which relatively minor hazards can substantially impact society and economy; the failure of a single industrial sector or cluster of sectors can result in cascading effect on other interlinked sectors. This paper attempts to quantify this cascading effect triggered by disrupted transportation in Hunan province due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm and proposes operational risk management measures. The advantage of computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (reflecting indirect and induced effects and the nonlinearity of production block) makes it a promising model to simulate cascading effects and the contribution of risk management measures. A detail transportation system is constructed in the production part of standard CGE model. This study finds the following results: The economic loss of Hunan province is amplified by approximately 40 times by cascading effects during the 2 months following the disaster. Large-scale disasters induce more strong cascading effects than minor ones. Post-disaster system resilience effectively stops the spread of cascading effects. When the economic system resilience (e.g., improving the substitution between road transportation and other forms of transportation and efficiency of road transportation) is increased by 10 %, the economic losses induced by cascading effects can be reduced by approximately 60 %. Overall, improving post-disaster system resilience is a highly efficient and cheap measure to reduce the risk from cascading effects. 相似文献
5.
Jidong Wu Ning Li Stéphane Hallegatte Peijun Shi Aijun Hu Xueqin Liu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):161-172
Disaster loss estimates are helpful for managing post-disaster reconstruction and for designing disaster-risk mitigation strategies.
However, most of these estimates in China merely consider direct losses, and only a few include indirect economic losses.
As the most destructive earthquake since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Wenchuan Earthquake that
occurred in 2008 resulted in direct economic damages reached Chinese Yuan (CNY) 845 billion (US $124 billion). The aim of
the study was to estimate indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province through the Adaptive
Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model, which can reflect disaster-related changes in production capacity, ripple effects within
the economic system, and adaptive behaviors of economic actors. The results showed that indirect economic losses in the production
and housing sectors were estimated at 40% of the direct economic losses, i.e., approximately CNY 300 billion; moreover, the
model predicted an 8-year reconstruction period. Several factors contributed to these losses, including significant damages
to key sectors, financial constraints on reconstruction, post-earthquake investment instability, and limits in reconstruction
capacity. Active government support policies post-earthquake are a useful strategy to mitigate the adverse economic impact
of an earthquake in developing countries. 相似文献
6.
H. Aghamohammadi M. S. Mesgari A. Mansourian D. Molaei 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(5):931-939
In Iran, earthquakes cause enormous damage to the people and economy. If there is a proper estimation of human losses in an earthquake disaster, it could be appropriately responded and its impacts and losses will be decreased. Neural networks can be trained to solve problems involving imprecise and highly complex nonlinear data. Based on the different earthquake scenarios and diverse kind of constructions, it is difficult to estimate the number of injured people. With respect to neural network’s capabilities, this paper describes a back propagation neural network method for modeling and estimating the severity and distribution of human loss as a function of building damage in the earthquake disaster. Bam earthquake data in 2003 were used to train this neural network. The final results demonstrate that this neural network model can reveal much more accurate estimation of fatalities and injuries for different earthquakes in Iran and it can provide the necessary information required to develop realistic mitigation policies, especially in rescue operation. 相似文献
7.
Danial Amini Baghbadorani Ali-Asghar Beheshti Behzad Ataie-Ashtiani 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(2):977-1003
Flooding is the most costly natural hazard event worldwide and can severely impact communities, both through economic losses and social disruption. To predict and reduce the flood risk facing a community, a reliable model is needed to estimate the cost of repairing flood-damaged buildings. In this paper, we describe the development and assessment of two models for predicting direct economic losses for single-family residential buildings, based on the experience of the 2013 Boulder, Colorado riverine floods. The first model is based on regression analyses on empirical data from over 3000 residential building damage inspections conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This model enables a probabilistic assessment of loss (in terms of FEMA grants paid to homeowners for post-flood repairs) as a function of key building and flood hazard parameters, considering uncertainties in structural properties, building contents, and damage characteristics at a given flood depth. The second model is an assembly-based prediction of loss considering unit prices for damaged building components to predict mean repair costs borne by the homeowner, which is based on typical Boulder construction practices and local construction and material costs. Comparison of the two proposed models illustrates benefits that arise from each of the two approaches, while also serving to validate both models. These models can be used as predictive tools in the future, in Boulder and other US communities, due to adaptability of the model for other context, and similarities in home characteristics across the country. The assembly-based model quantifies the difference between the FEMA grants and true losses, providing a quantification of out-of-pocket homeowner expenses. 相似文献
8.
Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives
in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the
country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence
of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for
the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry
in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial
risks.
This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The
full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’. 相似文献
9.
Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains. 相似文献
10.
The repetitive soil slope failure along the National Highway (NH)-5 in Jhakri region of Himachal Pradesh, India draws frequent concern due to heavy damage and traffic disruption almost every year. Being only linking route from border district to the nearby land area, stability of the road-cut slopes along this highway is of major concern in regard to safe transportation. Absence of any previous stability investigation of this recurring slope failure calls for an integrated geotechnical and numerical approach in order to understand the instability factors. The geotechnical analysis has been performed to determine the inherent properties of soil materials which affect the stability of existing slope. An event-specific antecedent rainfall threshold has been suggested to quantify the relationship between rainfall and slope failure. A two-dimensional limit equilibrium method has also been executed to visualize the scenario of pre- and post-failure stability of the slope. On the basis of limit equilibrium analysis, it has been inferred that slope geometry is a major affecting parameter that influences the failure pattern. Moreover, preventive measures through benching and soil nailing have also been proposed and validated through limit equilibrium analysis for long-term stability and safe transportation. 相似文献
11.
Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention. 相似文献
12.
Hazus-MH earthquake modeling in the central USA 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This investigation was undertaken to assess the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH (v2.0) earthquake model to model parameters and to guide the selection of these parameters for realistic earthquake-loss assessment in the central USA. To accomplish these goals, we performed several sensitivity analyses and a validation assessment using earthquake damage surveys from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, Illinois earthquake. We evaluated the sensitivity of the Hazus-MH earthquake model to the selection of seismic hazard data, attenuation function, soils data, liquefaction data, and structural fragility curves. These sensitivity analyses revealed that earthquake damage, loss, and casualty estimates are most sensitive to the seismic hazard data and selection of the attenuation function. The selection of the seismic hazard data and attenuation function varied earthquake damages and capital-stock losses by ±68?% and casualty estimates by ±84?%. The validation assessment revealed that Hazus-MH overpredicted observed damages by 68?C221?% depending on the model parameters employed. The model run using region-specific soils, liquefaction, and structure fragility curves produced the most realistic damage estimate (within 68?% of actual damages). Damage estimates using default Hazus-MH parameters were overpredicted by 155?%. The uncertainties identified here are similar to uncertainties recognized in other Hazus-MH validation assessments. Despite uncertainties in Hazus-MH earthquake-loss estimates, such estimates are still useful for planning and response so long as the limitations of the results are properly conveyed to planners, decision makers, emergency responders, and the public. 相似文献
13.
Keyan Yu Philippe Rosset 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):164-178
In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm. 相似文献
14.
Community-scale estimates of building damage and economic loss are modeled for Seaside, Oregon, for Cascadia subduction zone events ranging from 8.7 to 9.3 MW with corresponding slip distances of 3–25 m considering only the effects of the tsunami. Numerical simulations are obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s method of splitting tsunami model which includes a source model, subsidence, and calculations of the propagation and inundation flow characteristics. The damage estimates are based on fragility curves from the literature which relate flow depth with probability of damage for two different structural materials of buildings. Calculations are performed at the parcel level for the inundation hazard without including damage caused by the earthquake itself. Calculations show that the severity of building damage in Seaside is sensitive to the magnitude of the event or degree of slip because the majority of the city is located on low-lying coastal land within the estimated inundation zone. For the events modeled, the percentage of building within the inundation zone ranges from 9 to 88 %, with average direct economic losses ranging from $2 million to $1.2 billion. 相似文献
15.
T. Rossetto N. Peiris A. Pomonis S. M. Wilkinson D. Del Re R. Koo S. Gallocher 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):105-124
On December 26, 2004 a great earthquake (M
W 9.3) occurred off the western coast of Sumatra triggering a series of tsunami waves that propagated across the Indian Ocean
causing damage and life loss in 12 countries. This paper summarizes the observations of lifeline performance, building damage
and its distribution, and the social and economic impact of the tsunami made by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation
Team (EEFIT) in Thailand and Sri Lanka. EEFIT operates under the umbrella of the UK’s Institution of Structural Engineers.
It is observed that good engineering practice can reduce economic losses, but additional measures are required to reduce risk
to life. 相似文献
16.
Ten moderate to large (magnitude 6–7) earthquakes have occurred in southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington in the last 130 years. A future large earthquake close to Vancouver, Victoria, or Seattle would cause tens of billions of dollars damage and would seriously impact the economies of Canada and the United States. An improved understanding of seismic hazards and risk in the region has been gained in recent years by using geologic data to extend the short period of instrumented seismicity. Geologic studies have demonstrated that historically unprecedented, magnitude 8 to 9 earthquakes have struck the coastal Pacific Northwest on average once every 500 years over the last several thousand years; another earthquake of this size can be expected in the future. Geologic data also provide insights into the likely damaging effects of future large earthquakes in the region. Much of the earthquake damage will result directly from ground shaking, but damage can also be expected from secondary phenomena, including liquefaction, landslides, and tsunamis. Vancouver is at great risk from earthquakes because important infrastructure, including energy and transportation lifelines, probably would be damaged or destroyed by landslides and liquefaction-induced ground failure. 相似文献
17.
The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt
the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by
Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng
and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake
is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster
reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail
trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and
entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan.
The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a
first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to
provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the
loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the
disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan. 相似文献
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土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。 相似文献