Regional climate change and local urbanization effects on weather variables in Southeast China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ji Chen  Qinglan Li  Jun Niu  Liqun Sun 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):555-565

This paper presents the analyses of regional climate change features and the local urbanization effects on different weather variables over Southeast China. The weather variables considered are: daily mean (T_m), minimum (T_min), and maximum (T_max) near surface air temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), relative humidity (RH), and precipitation (P). With analysis of two datasets (a station dataset for the period from 1960 to 2005 that is mainly used and a grid dataset for the period 1960–2000), this study reveals that the trends in the variations of these weather variables can be separated into two periods, before and after 1984. Before 1984, there were no significant urbanization effects, and T_min, RH, and P steadily increased but T_max decreased, resulting in a considerable decrease in DTR and a slight decrease in T_m. After 1984, T_min and T_max increased considerably, and the urbanization influence on T_min, but not T_max, is observable. The urbanization effect causes an extra increasing trend in T_min with a rate of about 0.6°C/decade and, accordingly, extra decreasing trends in DTR and RH. The analysis of the seasonal trends reveals that the urbanization influence results in a near-uniform increase of T_min for all four seasons and a strong decrease of RH in summer and autumn. Moreover, there is no significant change in P at the annual scale and an increasing rate of 11.8%/decade in summer. With the urbanization influence, a considerable increase in P is noticeable at the annual scale; specifically, the increasing rates of 18.6%/decade in summer and 13.5%/decade in autumn are observed.  相似文献   

Trends in rainfall and temperature in the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin over the last 40 years (1965–2007)     

Waldo Sven Lavado Casimiro  David Labat  Josyane Ronchail  Jhan Carlo Espinoza  Jean Loup Guyot 《水文研究》2013,27(20):2944-2957

The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (T_mean), maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant T_mean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in T_max (during the 1970s) than in T_min (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Regional recharge assessment in the crystalline bedrock aquifer of the Kenogami Uplands,Canada     

Romain Chesnaux 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):421-436

Abstract

Estimates of trends of climatic changes at basin and state scales are required for developing adaptation strategies related to planning, development and management of water resources. In the present study, seasonal and annual trends of changes in maximum temperature (T _max), minimum temperature (T _min), mean temperature (T _mean), temperature range (T _range), highest maximum temperature (H _max) and lowest minimum temperature (L _min) have been examined at the basin scale. The longest available records over the last century, for 43 stations covering nine river basins in northwest and central India, were used in the analysis. Of the nine river basins studied, seven showed a warming trend, whereas two showed a cooling trend. The Narmada and Sabarmati river basins experienced the maximum warming and cooling, respectively. The majority of basins in the study area show increasing trend in T _range, H _max and L _min. Seasonal analysis of different variables shows that the greatest changes in T _max and T _mean were observed in the post-monsoon season, while T _min experienced the greatest change in the monsoon season. This analysis provides scenarios of temperature changes which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water availability for different basins, and accordingly in planning and implementation of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960–2012: Attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation          下载免费PDF全文

Rongfan Chai  Shanlei Sun  Haishan Chen  Shujia Zhou 《水文研究》2018,32(19):3032-3048

This study investigates reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) trends in China from 1960 to 2012 based on the Penman–Monteith equation and gridded meteorological measurements. Under the combined impacts of factors influencing ET₀ (i.e., net radiation [RN], mean temperature [TAVE], vapour pressure deficit [VPD], and wind speed [WND]), both seasonal and annual ET₀ for the whole China and more than half of the grids decreased over the past 53 years. The attribution analyses suggest that for the whole China, the WND is responsible for annual and seasonal ET₀ decreases (excluding summer, where RN is responsible). Across China, the annual cause of WND with the largest spatial extent (43.1% of grids) mainly derives from north of the Changjiang River Basin (CJRB), whereas VPD (RN) as a cause is dispersedly distributed (within and to the south of the CJRB). In summer, RN is dominant in more than half of the grids, but the dominance of VPD and WND accounts for approximately 90% of grids during the remaining seasons. Finally, the correlation coefficients between ET₀ and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO), North AO, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices with different lead times are calculated. For the whole China, annual and seasonal ET₀ always significantly correlate with these indices (excluding the IOD) but with varied lead times. Additionally, near half of the grids show significant and maximum (i.e., the largest one between ET₀ and a certain index with a lead time of 0–3 seasons) correlation coefficients of ET₀ with PDO in spring and summer, ENSO in autumn, and AO in winter. This study is not only significant for understanding ET₀ changes, but it also provides preliminary and fundamental reference information for ET₀ prediction.  相似文献   

Comparison of transfer functions in statistical downscaling models for daily temperature and precipitation over Canada   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

D. I. Jeong  A. St-Hilaire  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  P. Gachon 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(5):633-653

This study compares three linear models and one non-linear model, specifically multiple linear regression (MLR) with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates, robust regression, ridge regression, and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to identify an appropriate transfer function in statistical downscaling (SD) models for the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (T_max and T_min) and daily precipitation occurrence and amounts (P_occ and P_amount). This comparison was made over twenty-five observation sites located in five different Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Québec). Reanalysis data were employed as atmospheric predictor variables of SD models. Predictors of linear transfer functions and ANN were selected by linear correlations coefficient and mutual information, respectively. For each downscaled case, annual and monthly models were developed and analysed. The monthly MLR, annual ANN, annual ANN, and annual MLR yielded the best performance for T_max, T_min, P_occ and P_amont according to the modified Akaike information criterion (AICu). A monthly MLR is recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it can provide a better performance for the T_max and as good performance as the annual MLR for the T_min, P_occ, and P_amount. Furthermore, a monthly MLR can provide a slightly better performance than an annual MLR for extreme events. An annual MLR approach is also equivalently recommended for the transfer functions of the four predictands because it showed as good a performance as monthly MLR in spite of its mathematical simplicity. Robust and ridge regressions are not recommended because the data used in this study are not greatly affected by outlier data and multicollinearity problems. An annual ANN is recommended only for the T_min, based on the best performance among the models in terms of both the RMSE and AICu.  相似文献   

Impacts of Urbanization and Station-relocation on Surface Air Temperature Series in Anhui Province, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yuan-Jian Yang  Bi-Wen Wu  Chun-e Shi  Jia-Hua Zhang  Yu-Bin Li  Wei-An Tang  Hua-Yang Wen  Hong-Qun Zhang  Tao Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(11):1969-1983

Since the 1990s, many meteorological stations in China have passively “entered” cities, which has led to frequent relocation and discontinuity in observational records at many stations. To study the impacts of urbanization on surface air temperature series, 52 meteorological stations in Anhui Province were chosen based firstly on a homogeneity test of the time series, and then their surrounding underlying surfaces during different decades were identified utilizing Landsat Multispectral Scanner images from the 1970s, Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1980s and 1990s, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper images after 2000, to determine whether or not the station “entered” city, and then these stations were categorized into three groups: urban, suburban, and rural using Landsat-measured land use/land cover (LULC) around the station. Finally, variations in annual mean air temperature (T _mean), maximum air temperature (T _max), and minimum air temperature (T _min) were analyzed in urban-type stations and compared to their surrounding rural-type stations. The results showed that, in Anhui Province over the past two decades, many rural stations experienced urbanization and changed into urban or suburban locations. This process is referred as the “city-entering” phenomena of stations. Consequently, many of the latest stations were relocated and moved to currently rural and suburban areas, which significantly influenced the continuity of observational records and the homogeneity of long-term trends. Based on homogeneous data series, the averaged annual T _mean, T _max, and T _min over Anhui Province increased at a rate of 0.407, 0.383 and 0.432 °C decade^?1 from 1970 to 2008. The strongest effect of urbanization on annual T _mean, T _max, and T _min trends occurred at urban stations, with corresponding contributions of 35.824, 14.286, and 45.161 % to total warming, respectively. This work provides convincing evidences that (1) urban expansion has important impacts on the evaluation of regional climate change, (2) high spatial resolution images of Landsat are very useful for selecting reference climate stations for evaluating the potential urban bias in the surface air temperature data in certain regions of the continents, and (3) meteorological observation adjustments of station-relocation-induced inhomogeneities are essential for the study of regional or global climate change.  相似文献   

Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of T_max and T_min in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between T_max and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between T_min and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between T_min and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased T_max brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased T_min had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher T_min.  相似文献   

Climate and hydrological changes in the Ob River Basin during 1936–2017     

Min Xu  Shichang Kang  Xiaoming Wang  Hao Wu  Didi Hu  Daqing Yang 《水文研究》2020,34(8):1821-1836

Changes in the hydrological regimes of Arctic rivers could affect the thermohaline circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal variations in temperature and precipitation in the Ob River Basin regions during 1936–2017 based on data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center. Changes in discharge and response to climate change were examined based on monthly observed data during the same period. It is indicated the Ob River Basin experienced significant overall rapid warming and wetting (increased precipitation) in the study period, with average rates of 0.20°C (10 year⁻¹) and 5.3 mm (10 year⁻¹), respectively. The annual spatial variations of temperature and precipitation showed different scales in different regions. The discharge in spring and winter significantly increased at a rate of 384.1 and 173.1 m³/s (10 year⁻¹), respectively. Hydrograph separation indicated infiltration and supported that deep flow paths increased the contribution of groundwater to base flow. Meanwhile, the variation of the ratio of Q_max/Q_min suggested that the basin storage and the mechanism of discharge generation have significantly changed. The hydrological processes were influenced by changes of permafrost in a certain in the Ob River Basin. An increase in the recession coefficient (RC) implies that the permafrost degradation in the basin due to climate warming affected hydrological processes in winter. Permafrost degradation affected the Q_max/Q_min more significantly in the warm season than RC due to the enhanced infiltration that converted more surface water into groundwater in the cold season. The impact of precipitation on discharge, including surface flow and base flow, was more significant than temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Ob River Basin. The base flow was more obviously influenced by temperature than surface flow. The results of this study are significant for analyses of the basin water budget and freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean.  相似文献   

Nonstationarity and clustering of flood characteristics and relations with the climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin,China     

Jianyu Liu  Vijay P. Singh  Xihui Gu  Peijun Shi 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(11):1809-1824

The magnitude, occurrence rate and occurrence timing of floods in the Poyang Lake basin were analysed. The flood series were acquired by annual and seasonal maximum flow (AMF) sampling and peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling. Nonstationarity and uncertainty were analysed using kernel density estimation and the bootstrap resampling methods. Using the relationships between flood indices and climate indices, i.e. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the potential causes of flooding were investigated. The results indicate that (1) the magnitudes of annual and seasonal AMF- and POT-based sampled floods generally exhibit an increasing tendency; (2) the highest occurrence rates of floods identified were during the 1990s, when the flood-affected crop area, flood-damaged crop area and crop failure area reached the highest levels; and (3) ENSO and IOD are the major climate indices that significantly correlate with the magnitude and frequency of floods of the following year.