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燕山地震活动具有可公度性,M≥6地震可公度周期约50年,M≥5地震可公度周期约3.78年。本文分析了燕山带M≥5地震可公度性活动特点及其与太阳黑子活动、郯庐北带M≥5地震活动的相关性,根据可公度性特点建立了燕山带地震的可公度性预测公式。对1976年唐山7.8级地震检验表明,公式具有较强稳定性和较高预测精度,可用于预测。文中提出了对燕山带潜在5—6级地震的预测,可供地震监测预报参考。 相似文献
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本文分析讨论了太阳黑子活动与辽西地震活动的关系。发现１９６６年以来辽西地震活动强度与太阳黑子活动强度之间存在着一定的负相关性，辽西以往发生的３次≥５级地震均位于太阳黑子活动的低谷之后不久，据此，结合可公度预测结果认为：辽西下一次≥５级地震很有可能发生在太阳黑子活动的第２２周末的１至２年间的１９９９年上半年前后。 相似文献
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通过可公度信息提取方法、蝴蝶结构图、震中时空迁移特征分析近50年菲律宾Ms≥7级中、浅源地震,发现2013、2014年Ms≥7级地震信号强,2014年最强;22年地震主周期明显,其中可划出活跃期与平静期;2012年为菲律宾新地震周期及活跃期的开始;菲律宾Ms≥7级地震震中时空交替迁移规律明显,未来震中向西北部迁移.菲律宾Ms≥7级地震与太阳黑子活动22年双周期关系密切,多发生在太阳黑子活动偶数周期极大年附近及其下降段.目前,太阳黑子活动处于第24周期极大年附近,2013～2014年Ms≥7级地震发生的可能性很大,与可公度分析结果一致. 相似文献
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20世纪云南地区Ms≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：7
在对云南地区地震目录完整性和均匀性分析的基础上，系统总结和分析了20世纪云南地区Ms≥5．0级地震活动时、空、强分布的基本特征。有以下主要认识：（1）6．7级以上大震存在十年尺度的活跃－平静交替活动过程；（2）50年左右的大震复发周期；（3）5级以上地震活动的时、空分布具有很大的随机性，5－6级地震活动不存在活跃期和平静期之分；Ms≥5．0级地震有约2．6次／年的期望年发生率，每年发生0．8－4．5次Ms≥5．0级地震的自然概率是68．3％；（4）6级以上地震具有空间丛集特征，云南全区80％的6级以上地震只分布在全区20％左右的面积上；（5）以金沙江－红河断裂带为界，6．7级以上大震成组地在滇西和滇东交替活动；（6）5级以上地震活动的b值为0．69。 相似文献
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用快速富里叶变换(FFT)计算得出太阳黑子有11 a、51 a、103 a的优势周期,通过太阳黑子的活跃周期与中国大陆西部(E108°以西)不同震级段地震的活跃周期进行了对比研究,发现M.6.5以上地震受太阳黑子的影响相对弱一些,其平均周期为2.7a;而Ms5.0～6.5受太阳黑子的影响可能相对强一些,其平均周期为11.4 a.分析认为Ms≥6.5地震地周期与太阳黑活跃周期存在倍数关系,Ms5.0～6.5的周期与太阳黑子活跃周期比较相近,计算得出1950年以来地震波能量释放与太阳黑子周期有一定关系,总体表明太阳黑子活动对不同震级地震均有一定影响,但对中强地震的影响要更明显一些. 相似文献
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利用连续小波变换对全天山地区1790年1月至1997年12月的地震活动情况进行分析和研究。结果表明，全天山地震活动即存在约11O年的大震活跃周期和50年左右的地震活动幕，也存在与太阳黑子活动相关的周期，并且这些周期是随时间变化的。与此同时，新疆南、北天山等地震带1893年以来也普遍存在相对比较稳定的11年和50年左右地震活动周期，只是在不同年份有较大的波动。连续小波变换揭示了新疆地震活动周期的时变性。根据新疆大震活动的11年左右周期可推测2006～2007年左右新疆地区有可能再次发生7级左右大地震，2002～2005年之间地震活动相对偏弱，Ms≥4．7级中强震次数偏少，活动强度为5级和6级地震。 相似文献
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从全概率公式出发，运用古登堡公式对滇东地区震级频率关系、地震活动性及地震复发周期进行了统计分析，认为该地区未来3－4年内有发生M≥6．0地震的可能性 相似文献
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Kelley Lee Tony McMichael Colin Butler Mike Ahern David Bradley 《Global Change & Human Health》2002,3(1):16-19
Debates over the merits and demerits of globalisation for health are increasingly polarised. Conclusions range from globalisation being essentially positive for health, albeit with a need to smooth out some rough edges, to one of utter condemnation, with adverse effects on the majority of the world's population. Anyone wading into this debate is immediately confronted by seemingly irreconcilable differences in ideology, opinion and interests. Both camps agree that global changes are occurring, and with them many of the determinants of population health status. While some skepticism persists about whether “globalisation” has value beyond being a fashionable buzzword, most agree that we need better understanding of these changes. Two difficult questions arise: (i) What are the health impacts of these changes; and (ii) how can we respond more effectively to them? To move beyond the stand-offs that have already formed within the health community, this paper reviews the main empirical evidence that currently exists, summarises key points of debate that remain, and suggests some ways forward for the research and policy communities. In particular, there is need for an informed and inclusive debate about the positive and negative health consequences of globalisation. 相似文献
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四川地震震级与烈度区面积和震源深度的关系 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文按照地震地质分区,同时考虑7级以上地震的空间分布特征,分四川为鲜水河、松潘—龙门山及马边地震带等几个区带,对四川1900年以来既有仪器测定参数、又有宏观烈度考查的33个地震资料,应用多元线性回归分析方法,统计拟合出了震级与不同烈度区面积、烈度值、震源深度之间的多组关系式,其一般形式为:■相关系数R大都在0.90左右,用部分地震检验的结果表明,震级误差一般小于0.3,震源深度误差一般小于5公里,基本消除了离散情况,笔者用求得的关系式对1900年以前的有三条以上等震线的部分历史地震的震级、震源深度进行了标定,结果也比较令人满意。 相似文献
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Denis E. Winch 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1967,68(1):90-102
Summary The notion of a dipole is generalized to the case of the fifth order spherical harmonic coefficients of the geomagnetic potential. The corresponding five axes and fifth order multipole strength are computed for ten epochs in the interval 1845 to 1965. 相似文献
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D. E. Winch 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1967,67(1):112-122
Summary The nine coefficients of fourth order spherical harmonic functions in the expression for the potential of the main geomagnetic field are used to derive the nine parameters of a fourth order multipole. These nine parameters consist of the strength of the multipole, and four unit vectors or axes. The points of intersection of the axes with the surface of the Earth are called poles. Although movements of the poles over the period 1829 to 1965 are masked by random errors in the spherical harmonic coefficients, all of the axes show eastward components of drift since 1829, but two have drifted westward in later years to return almost to their initial 1829 positions. The strength of the fourth order multipole has shown a general increase, amounting to some 30 per cent of the 1829 value. 相似文献
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《Acta Geochimica》2016,(1)
Recent geochemical and geophysical data from the Moon enable a revision of earlier interpretations regarding lunar origin, structure and bulk composition. Earth and Moon show many similarities among their isotopic compositions, but they have evolved in totally dissimilar ways, probably related to the deficiency of water and volatile elements in the Moon as well as the vast differences in size and internal pressure. Some global geochemical differences from the Earth such as volatile depletion based on K/U ratios have been established. However, all current lunar samples come from differentiated regions, making the establishment of a bulk composition more reliant on bulk geophysical properties or isotopic similarities; it remains unclear how the latter arose or relate to whole Moon composition. The lack of fractionation effects among the refractory and super-refractory elements indicates that the proto-lunar material seems unlikely to have been vaporized while the presence of volatile elements may place lower limits on proto-lunar temperatures. The apparent lack of geochemical evidence of an impacting body enables other possible impactors, such as comets, to be considered. Although the origin of the Moon remains currently unknown, it is generally believed that the Moon originated as the result of a giant impact on the Earth. 相似文献
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The mesosphere, which extends from about 50 to 90 km altitude, is an atmospheric region characterized by a negative gradient of solar energy absorption, and thus, temperature. Although the distribution of most minor constituents is dominated by photochemistry, vertical transport does have a pronounced effect on many of them. Hence, we discuss the basic dynamic principles and their application to the important mesopheric motions: acoustic-gravity waves, tides, planetary scale waves, and eddy motions.The most important minor electrically neutral constituents are compounds of oxygen, hydrogen and nitrogen. In fact, the allotropes of oxygen are in many ways the most significant because they screen out solar ultraviolet radiation and provide the principal source of mesospheric heating (absorption of solar UV by O2 and ozone). We also discuss oxides of nitrogen and hydrogen which strongly influence the balance of odd oxygen (O and O3). Brief discussions of the chemistry of carbon compounds and of excited species are also included.The chemistry of ionic species present in the mesosphere is very important because it strongly influences the propagationand absorption of radio waves. Because of ion clustering and negative-ion formation, such chemistry is extremely complex, and it is only very recently that we have begun to understand it. The current state of knowledge is discussed in some detail. The principles involved in constructing models for predicting the distribution of minor constituents, both neutral and ionic, are presented. 相似文献
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水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性估计是工程地震工作中的一项重要环节,其中可能诱发的地震强度是人们特别关注的要素。本文基于国内外41个水库地震震例,从目前对水库地震形成机理的认识水平出发,提取了15个可能的诱震指标,应用模式识别的一些方法对水库蓄水后的诱发地震危险性进行复因子评估,通过内符检验讨论了这些方法在水库诱发地震危险性上的估计效能,给出了其错误概率估计值,结果表明,这些方法能够相对客观和合理地评定水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性水平大小,在工程上具有一定应用价值。 相似文献
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三峡工程对坝下长江流量影响研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据长江水情的具体特点,采用Ｐｒｅｉｓｍａｎｎ隐式格式,建立了一个描述长江情的水动力学数值模式。以最佳拟合历史水文资料,重演历史水文过程为原则,率定数值模式中的各参数;并运行率定后的模式,进行三峡工程对坝下长江若干断面处流量影响的模拟预测。 相似文献
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简要介绍同车公司地裂缝观测站情况,以2013年至2016年数字化改造后的观测数据为基础,结合仪器工作原理,分析三维断层形变测量仪测值与观测仪两端辅助温度测值的关系。结果表明,地裂缝三维断层形变观测中,垂直向DFG观测受地裂缝两端辅助温度影响较显著,地裂缝垂直形变变化是热形变效应和断层运动信息的综合反映。 相似文献