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1.
Summary. The section of the North Anatolian Fault lying near the city of Izmit, at the east of the Marmara Sea, has been identified as a seismic gap and the possible site of a future major earthquake. Previously published studies of records from an earthquake swarm within the gap (TDP1 and TDP2) provided the first evidence that shear-wave splitting occurs in earthquake source regions, a conclusion since verified by many studies at other locations. A third field study (TDP3) was mounted in the Izmit region during the summer of 1984. Observations were made over an eight-month period and included geomagnetic and geoelectric measurements in addition to a series of observations utilising dense arrays of three-component seismometers. Earthquake activity in the principal study area was monitored over a period of eight months. Records showed features similar to those observed in the earlier studies. In particular: (1) almost all shear waves emerging within the shear-wave window displayed shear-wave splitting; and (2) the polarizations of the first arriving (faster) split shear-waves showed sub-parallel alignments, characteristic of propagation through a distribution of parallel vertical cracks striking perpendicular to the minimum compressional stress.
These and other observations support the conclusion of earlier studies – that the upper crust is pervaded by distributions of micro-cracks aligned by stress, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy. A search for time dependence in shear-wave phenomena has revealed temporal variations in the delays between the split shear-waves throughout the course of the TDP3 study, but as yet this has not been correlated with specific earthquake activity.  相似文献   

2.
Summary. Three-component seismograms of small local earthquakes recorded in the Peter the First Range of mountains near Garm, Tadzhikistan SSR, display shear-wave splitting similar to that previously observed near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey. The Peter the First Range is in a region of compressional tectonics, whereas the North Anatolian Fault is a comparatively simple strike-slip fault. Detailed analysis of the Turkish records suggests that the splitting is diagnostic of crack-induced anisotropy caused by vertical microcracks aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Preliminary examination of paper records from Garm shows that most shear waves arriving within the shear-wave window display shear-wave splitting, and that the polarizations of leading shear-waves are consistently aligned in a NE/SW direction. The area is complicated and the tectonics are not well-understood, but the NE/SW direction is approximately perpendicular to the compressional axis in many of the fault-plane mechanisms of the earthquakes. These earthquakes are usually at depths between 5 and 12 km, although there are some deeper events nearby.
Parallel shear-wave polarizations, such as those observed, are expected to indicate the strike of nearly vertical parallel microcracks, which would be aligned parallel to the direction of maximum compression. Thus the shear-wave polarizations in the Peter the First Range indicate that the directions of principal stress are reversed in the rock above the earthquake foci where thrust faulting is taking place.  相似文献   

3.
Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a ML = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the ML = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

4.
Summary. Almost all shear-waves from local earthquakes recorded on closely-spaced three-component seismometer networks deployed near the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey, in two experiments in 1979 and 1980, display shear-wave splitting. The observations are consistent with the presence of EDA (extensive-dilatancy anisotropy), distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks aligned by the regional stress field. Temporal changes in the stress-field, which may occur before an earthquake, may modify the geometry and possibly the orientation of the EDA-microcracks, and lead to corresponding changes in the behaviour of the split shear-waves. A third experiment was undertaken in 1984 to investigate EDA further and to search for possible temporal variations of the polarization of the leading split shear-wave and the time delay between split shear-waves. Observations indicate that the polarization alignments, which are parallel to the strike of the parallel vertical EDA-cracks, are unaltered between 1979 and 1984, implying that the direction of the regional stress field has not changed significantly. Temporal changes in the stress field are more likely to cause changes in the crack density and/or aspect ratio, which would result in a corresponding change in time delay between the split shear-waves. We examine observations of time delay in relation to their propagation path with respect to the crack geometry since it is then possible to separate the effects of changes in crack density and changes in aspect ratio. With this procedure, a small temporal variation of time delays is found between 1979 and 1984, consistent with a decrease in crack density, and consequently a relaxation of stress, in this time period. No evidence was found for any observable variation of time delay over a six month observation span in 1984. We suggest that analysis of repeated shear-wave VSPs offers a technique for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
Summary. The polarizations of shear waves recorded by networks of digital three-component seismometers immediately above small earthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey display shear-wave splitting on almost all shear-wave seismograms recorded within the shear-wave window. This splitting is incompatible with source radiation-patterns propagating through simple isotropic structures but is compatible with effective anisotropy of the internal structure of the rock along the ray paths. This paper interprets the phenomena in terms of widespread crack-induced anisotropy. Distributions of stress-induced cracks model many features of the observations, and synthetic polarization diagrams calculated for propagation through simulated cracked rock are similar to the observed patterns. This evidence for widespread crack-induced anisotropy lends strong support to the hypothesis of extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) suggested by laboratory experiments in subcritical crack-growth. The crucial evidence confirming some form of EDA would be observations of temporal changes in shear-wave splitting as the stress field alters the crack density and crack geometry. There is some weak evidence for such temporal changes at one site, but further analysis of suitable digital three-component seismometer networks in seismic areas is required to confirm EDA.  相似文献   

6.
53 local earthquakes recorded at 2.5 km depth in the Cajon Pass scientific borehole are analysed for shear-wave splitting. The time delays between the split shear waves can be positively identified for 32 of the events. Modelling these observations of polarizations and time delays using genetic algorithms suggests that the anisotropic structure near Cajon Pass has orthorhombic symmetry. The polarization of the shear waves and the inferred strike of the stress-aligned fluid-filled intergranular microcracks and pores suggests that the maximum horizontal compressional stress direction is approximately N13°W. This is consistent with previous results from earthquake source mechanisms and the right-lateral strike-slip motion on the nearby San Andreas Fault, but not with stresses measured within the uppermost 3 km of the borehole. This study suggests that the San Andreas Fault is driven by deeper tectonic stresses and the present understanding of a weak and frictionless San Andreas Fault may need to be modified. The active secondary faulting and folding close to the fault are probably driven by the relatively shallow stress as measured in the 3.5 km deep borehole.  相似文献   

7.
Summary. The third occupation (experiment TDP3) of recording sites above a persistent swarm of microearthquakes near the North Anatolian Fault, with a larger seismic network and over a longer period of time, confirms and refines previous observations with greater resolution. The greater resolution in earthquake locations has revealed marked clustering in time and space. Many, perhaps most, of the earthquakes belong to clusters, where successive earthquakes originate in a very small volume and have similar fault mechanisms. Such studies allow the progression of seismic activity of small earthquakes to be followed in some detail, and may reveal features which are hidden in larger and more complex earthquake sequences.  相似文献   

8.
An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors.  相似文献   

9.
Summary. Polarization anomalies in seismic shear wavetrains, diagnostic of propagation through anisotropic media, have now been observed in dilatancy zones in seismic regions. Stress-induced dilatancy will open cracks with preferred orientations, which will be effectively anisotropic to short-period seismic waves. The polarization anomalies are due to the shear waves splitting, in propagation through anisotropic media, into components with different polarizations and different velocities. This writes characteristic signatures into the shear wavetrains. The paper examines ways in which the differential shear-wave anisotropy (the delay between the split shear-waves) varies with direction by plotting stereograms of the relative delays, and their polarizations, for possible dilatancy symmetry-systems. It seems likely, that if sufficient observations of these anomalies can be obtained at each stage of the dilatancy episode, it will be possible to estimate the symmetry directions of the dilatancy and the geometry of the stress-induced crack-system, as well as monitoring the progress of the dilatancy episode.  相似文献   

10.
The basis for earthquake prediction   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Summary. Recent advances in understanding the behaviour of shear waves propagating in the crust make the routine prediction of earthquakes seem practicable. Accumulating evidence suggests that most of the Earth's crust is pervaded by distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks that are aligned by the contemporary stress-field so that the cracked rockmass is effectively anisotropic to seismic waves. This causes shear-waves to split, and shear-wave splitting is observed whenever shear-waves propagating along suitable raypaths in the crust are recorded by three-component instruments. These distributions of cracks are known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. Many characteristics of the crack- and stress-geometry can be monitored by analyzing shear-waves propagating through the cracked rockmass. Observations of temporal variations of the behaviour of shear-wave splitting in seismic gaps confirm these hypotheses, and suggest that stress changes before earthquakes may be monitored by analyzing shear-waves. In particular, monitoring earthquake preparation zones with three-component shear-wave vertical-seismic-profiles could lead to techniques for the routine prediction of earthquakes.  相似文献   

11.
We show that seismic shear waves may be used to monitor the in situ stress state of deep inaccessible rocks in the crust. The most widespread manifestation of the stress-related behaviour of seismic waves is the shear-wave splitting (shear-wave birefringence) observed in almost all rocks, where the polarizations of the leading split shear waves are usually subparallel to the direction of the local maximum horizontal stress. It has been recognized that such shear-wave splitting is typically the result of propagation through distributions of stress-aligned fluid-filled microcracks and pores, known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. This paper provides a quantitative basis for the EDA hypothesis. We model the evolution of anisotropic distributions of microcracks in triaxial differential stress, where the driving mechanism is fluid migration along pressure gradients between neighbouring microcracks and pores at different orientations to the stress field. This leads to a non-linear anisotropic poroelasticity (APE) model for the stress-sensitive behaviour of fluid-saturated microcracked rocks. A companion paper shows that APE modelling matches a range of observed phenomena and is a good approximation to the equation of state of a stressed fluid-saturated rock mass.  相似文献   

12.
Summary. The largest earthquake-induced acceleration yet recorded occurred at the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Strong Motion Array Station 6 during the 1979 October 15, Imperial Valley, California earthquake. This large acceleration (1.74 g, vertical component) is anomalously strong considering the low magnitude of the event ( M = 6.4), and the fact that receivers in the immediate neighbourhood of Station 6 recorded much lower accelerations. Previous studies of the records by other investigators have suggested a number of explanations for the anomaly, several of which implicate the near-receiver geological structure.
We present a detailed time and frequency domain analysis of the acceleration records at Stations 6, 5, 7, 8 and Diff Array to suggest that the anomalous acceleration is the consequence of the focusing of the incoming body waves by the lens-like effect of the sedimentary wedge between Imperial Valley and Brawley faults. The analyses include a detailed comparison of observed particle motions between neighbouring stations. Narrow band-pass filtered particle motions at Station 6 reveal the interaction of multipath arrivals as well as the frequency-dependent interference between them. Three-dimensional ray tracing experiments confirm the fact that the faulted sedimentary wedge is capable of focusing P -waves near Station 6. The interpretation that best combines theoretical and observed results is that amplification was due to the formation of an elliptic umbilic caustic with focus near the surface.  相似文献   

13.
Summary. Seismic investigations using shear-wave and converted wave techniques show that very often reflected PS - and SS -waves have anomalous polarizations ( accessory components ). This phenomenon cannot be explained in terms of isotropic models with dipping boundaries. Computations of synthetic seismograms of reflected PS - and SS -waves were made for different models of transversely isotropic media with dipping anisotropic symmetry axes not normal to the boundaries. Synthetic seismograms were computed by ray techniques using an optimization algorithm to construct all rays arriving at a given receiver. These computations indicate that accessory components arise when the medium above the boundary is anisotropic, where they are caused by the constructive interference of qSV - and qSH -waves. If a low-velocity layer is present, displacement vectors of both waves have horizontal projections which are approximately orthogonal. The algorithm for wave separation is presented and some results of its use are given.  相似文献   

14.
There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.  相似文献   

15.
贾国强 《极地研究》1990,2(2):81-85
1986年3月30日至12月25日为期271天的冬季地震观测中,中国南极长城站地震台共记录到各种震动3000余次,其中大部分为长城湾冰层破裂产生的微震,4次为南设得兰群岛邻近海域中的浅源地震以及5月7日阿留申群岛发生的8.1级地震和4月14日南桑韦奇群岛发生的6.4级地震。冰震与构造地震具有明显的差异。1986年11月16日的地震记录为分析冰震与构造地震的区别提供了很好的例证。冰震具有初动尖锐、频率高和衰减快的特征。根据初动和波型很容易将冰震与构造地震区分开。  相似文献   

16.
A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.  相似文献   

17.
Summary. In Part I of this paper we modelled shear-wave splitting observed in crystalline rock bordering an active, normal fault-zone at Oroville, California, with Červený's ray-tracing system applied to anisotropic heterogeneous media using Hudson's formulation of elastic constants for a medium containing aligned cracks. In Part II we use the ray-tracing results of Part I to quantitatively interpret P -wave polarization anomalies observed in the three-component seismograms recorded in the Oroville fault zone. We show that the eigenvectors of the first-order Christoffel tensor defined by the ray-tracing slowness vector and Hudson's first-order anisotropic corrections to the isotropic elastic tensor correctly account for P -wave first motion that deviates from the ray vector.  相似文献   

18.
Earthquake prediction: a new physical basis   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  
Summary. Subcritical crack growth in the laboratory occurs slowly but progressively in solids subjected to low stresses at low strain rates. The cracks tend to grow parallel to the maximum compressive stress so that, when this stress is aligned over a large enough region, the cracks will also be aligned and possess effective seismic anisotropy. It is suggested that such subcritical crack growth produces extensive-dilatancy anisotropy (EDA) throughout earth-quake preparation zones. This process is a possible driving mechanism for earthquake precursors observed at substantial distances from impending focal zones, and provides, in the shear-wave splitting which has been observed in several seismic regions, a possible technique for monitoring the build-up of stress before earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
Effects of the free surface on shear wavetrains   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Summary. The behaviour of shear-waves is of great importance in identifying and investigating seismic anisotropy in the Earth. However, shear wavetrains recorded at the Earth's surface do not always reflect the motion at depth, introducing practical problems of interpretation. Shear wavetrains incident on the surface of an isotropic half-space at angles less than critical (about 35°) are broadly preserved, but at greater angles substantial distortions can occur. For stations situated close to the source, as in local earthquake studies, the local SP phase, a radially polarized precursor to S , may occur. The behaviour at the surface of an anisotropic half-space is further complicated by the divergence of phase and energy propagation vectors. All of these complications suggest that detailed seismogram modelling is essential to any study of shear wave propagation in the Earth, and in particular to investigations of anisotropy-induced shear-wave splitting.  相似文献   

20.
The Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 7.0), which occurred in October 1989 in central California, was preceded by a period during which the mean magnitude of background seismicity in a small region near the eventual epicentre was abnormally low. This period may have begun as early as 1979, and it continued until mid-1988, after which the mean magnitude increased to a higher than normal value until the main earthquake. These changes were observed in the seismicity of an area 40  km in radius, centred on the Loma Prieta epicentre, and are consistent with the predictions of fracture mechanics studies. The 1988 change correlates with a reported change in long-term strain.
  A procedure has been developed for resolving such temporal changes in seismicity using CUSUM statistics. It demonstrates that the anomaly was highly significant, on the basis of analyses of two independent catalogues. There was also a significant anomaly before the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
  The hypothesis that large earthquakes are preceded by periods in which the mean magnitude of background activity is abnormally low, in the immediate vicinity of the eventual epicentre, is a tantalizing one. The analysis tool examined here may be useful for resolving such changes. Care needs to be taken, however, in routine surveillance of earthquake populations that contain large aftershock sequences.  相似文献   

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