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1.
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. 相似文献
2.
The literature on climate change’s impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in “think tanks,” government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation technology choices but find less evidence of climate change’s direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organizations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security. 相似文献
3.
全球变暖背景下的气候服务 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
气候与人的关系密不可分.气候学本身就是人类认识自然、利用气候的科学.最近五十多年,地球气候明显地受到了人类活动的影响,而变化的气候又通过各种途径影响人类的生产和生活.21世纪人类必须高度重视并积极应对气候变化及与其相伴随的各种极端天气气候事件.通过进一步加强气候监测,加强气候科学研究和模式研发,迅速提升气候预测能力,并通过加强建立与用户之间的伙伴关系,建立气候服务系统,从而不断提高服务水平,以适应日趋严峻的气候变化. 相似文献
4.
本文试图从经典的大众传播学基本理论和模式入手,梳理现有气候变化知识产品的编制方式、主要传播途径和相关实践经验,以期为未来气候变化信息传播研究和实践提供参考。分析表明,气候变化知识传播过程应遵循信息传播的基本规律,并充分考虑气候变化知识自身所具有的复杂性和交叉性特点;在信息采集方面,应注重知识的科学性、系统性、准确性和权威性;在展示方式方面,应注重内容的可读性、趣味性、精练性和通俗性;在传播途径方面,除传统的大众媒介外,还需要注重利用新兴的互联网、社交媒体等平台,发挥人际关系网络作用;在国家经济社会发展的新形势下,需要进一步加强气候变化知识传播的理论、模式和实践等方面的创新性研究。 相似文献
5.
德州气候变化与建筑物防腐 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用德州11县市1951～2005年温度、降水资料,计算气候干燥度,1981～2005年与1951～1980年相比全市干燥度由1.45增大到1.64,已由原来的半湿润气候变化为半干旱气候。各县市降水量呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少19.64mm;气温呈上升趋势,平均每10年升高0.11℃,冬季升高0.30℃,冬季增温显著,北部县市已由原来的冰冻区变化为微冻区,全市均为微冻区。由于气候条件变化,相应场地环境类别与腐蚀介质指标的调整系数标准应作调整改变,场地环境类别由Ⅱ类转变为Ⅰ类,腐蚀介质指标的调整系数均取0.9。 相似文献
6.
曾宁 《气候变化研究进展》2009,5(3):163-166
针对中国的特点,对中国温室气体排放的状况及相应的控制对策加以讨论：一方面中国应继续强调人均碳排放和历史碳排放低,另一方面应变被动为主动,在国际气候变化谈判中扮演领导角色。中国的特定发展阶段提供了发达国家所没有的机遇,如高能源效率基础设施的建设,全民动员植树造林和开发可再生能源的机会。中国的巨大人口压力和相对资源贫乏是经济发展的根本限制,气候变化反而提供了一个机会让中国开创一条全新的可持续发展道路。 相似文献
7.
Drawing on results of a 2003 survey of environmental officers in every Local Authority (LA) in England and Wales, this paper assesses the reception and response of local government to the information being provided through the UK Climate Change Programme. Over three quarters of respondents (n=184) felt they did not have access to the best information about the impacts of climate change on their areas. Although up-to-date information is freely available from a number of official Government sources, those official sources are not consulted as consistently as the media or as intensively as the internet, despite being consistently regarded as much more accurate, credible, and appropriate to LA needs. We interpret this apparent contradiction between LA officer confidence in official sources and their relatively infrequent use as a consequence, first, of technical–cognitive and practical–temporal difficulties accessing and understanding official sources of climate change information and, second, of concerns about the practical relevance of that information for the administrative functions of local government and thus for any meaningful response by LAs to climate change. Our survey recorded considerable levels of stress, cynicism, and futility among LA officials that not only complicate communication efforts but also call into question the central assumption of the UK Climate Change Programme that simply making more locally specific information about climate change impacts available will motivate appropriate action. 相似文献
8.
Climate Extremes: Selected Review and Future Research Directions 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
9.
Public Views on Climate Change: European and USA Perspectives 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
If uncontrolled, human influences on the climate system may generate changes that will endanger various aspects of life on Earth. The precise implications of the scientific claims about climate change, and the extent to which they pose dangers to various populations, are becoming intensely debated at many levels in relation to policy. How `danger' is interpreted will ultimately affect which actions are taken. In this paper, we examine how climate change is conceptualised by publics in Europe and in the USA. Although there is widespread concern about climate change, it is of secondary importance in comparison to other issues in people's daily lives. Most individuals relate to climate change through personal experience, knowledge, the balance of benefits and costs, and trust in other societal actors. We analyse these factors through findings from various surveys and studies, which highlight both the distinctiveness and some shared perspectives at a generalised level. We reflect upon these in relation to trust and responsibility for climate change action, and risk communication, supporting the call for discourses about climate change to also be situated in people's locality, as a means of increasing its saliency. 相似文献
10.
Climate resilient development is emerging as a global policy strategy that integrates climate adaptation and mitigation into sustainable development decisions. For the Caribbean small island developing state (SIDS) of Antigua and Barbuda, the national government is pursuing climate resilient development through multilateral climate funds to protect economic growth from climate and weather-related disasters. Critical adaptation literature argues that interpreting climate vulnerability through an economic growth lens prioritizes economic solutions over other development concerns, which can further the uneven distribution of climate vulnerability and risk. Despite revealing the consequences of market-based climate actions, research has yet to fully understand the economization of vulnerability, which describes the political techniques that render and reconfigure vulnerability in calculated ways. By tracing the discursive interactions between multilateral climate financial institutions and the Antigua and Barbuda national government, this paper empirically examines how vulnerability is economized through climate resilient development. Findings identify the construction of ‘adaptation economies’ in watershed areas, which are economies that can capitalize upon climate challenges within areas of highest vulnerability through fee-for-climate services. The results illustrate that economic growth rationalities characterize climate vulnerability problematizations, which incentivize solutions that enforce the economic development of areas with the highest disaster impacts. Based on these findings, this study emphasizes a need to critically evaluate national actor efforts to re-organize development under climate financing rationales, and its vulnerability-inducing effects. 相似文献
11.
In order for a scientific innovation to reach a wide audience it needs to travel through diverse networks and be understandable to a variety of people. This paper focuses on networks of stakeholders involved in the diffusion of seasonal climate forecasts. It is argued that understanding stakeholder networks is key to determining the opportunities and barriers to the flow of forecast information, which could enable more focused forecast dissemination. Lesotho is used as a case study where Stakeholder Thematic Networks (STNs) are used as a novel method for investigating forecast dissemination. STNs enable qualitative information to be analysed through semi-quantitative mapping of relationships that enable the networks and scales of linkages to be visualised. This illustrates the types of nodes and channels of seasonal forecast information flow and so enables existing or emerging patterns of dissemination to be uncovered. Sub-networks that exist for purposes other than climate information dissemination are identified as salient sub-networks for focusing development of future forecast dissemination. These existing sub-networks enable stakeholder needs to be addressed and decrease the need for new networks to be established. By using these sub-networks, information relating to climate variability can be mainstreamed into existing development pathways. This is critical to recognise if innovations relating to climate information are to be used to improve climate change adaptation. 相似文献
12.
Hengyi WENG 《大气科学进展》2012,29(4):867-886
The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study.Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics,Part I propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns.This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24,the historical surface temperature data,and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters.For low solar activity,the thermal contrast between the low-and high-latitudes is enhanced,so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity.The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced,which amplifies the topographic waves.The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes,making the atmospheric "heat engine" more efficient than normal.The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened.The Northern Annular Mode(NAM) index tends to be negative.The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts,which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur.The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced,which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon(EAWM).For high solar activity,the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport.The NAM tends to be positive,and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal.Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity.The solar influence on the midto high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after removing the influence from the El Nin o-Southern Oscillation.The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with other external radiative forcings that do not influence the climate in the same way as the sun does. 相似文献
13.
The paper by Shackley et al. (1998) appears to present a case for re-considering the way in which climatic science is presented for the purpose of climatic policy development. It also creates, perhaps unwittingly, a picture of naive climate scientists driven by the moods of White House administrators to squander funds in ignorance. We believe that this view, while interesting, is incorrect. Here we respond to Shackley et al.'s (1998, p. 137) invitation to climate scientists to take part in such discussions: in a sense, to (re)consider the scientific and implicit social and policy commitments they have entered into through pursuit of a particular scientific research programme. 相似文献
14.
The remote response of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)to European black carbon(EUBC)aerosols was studied by using an ensemble of sensitivity experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory(GFDL)atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)Atmospheric Model version 2.1(AM2.1).The results show that EUBC causes an enhanced EASM.The resulted enhanced southwesterly brings more moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal,which causes an increase in precipitation over the Yangtze River valley,northeastern China,the eastern part of the Yellow River valley,and the Tibetan Plateau.Diagnostic examination suggests that EUBC induces enhanced tropospheric heating over most of the Eurasian Continent through a propagating wave train and horizontal air temperature advection.This phenomenon results in intensified thermal contrast between land and ocean,which accounts for the enhanced EASM.Moreover,reductions in EUBC emission in 1992 may have contributed to decadal weakening of the EASM in the early 1990s. 相似文献
15.
该文回顾了过去几十年来中国气象科学研究院在气候和气候变化研究方面的成果, 主要包括对我国历史气候资料的恢复、重建和整理, 气候区划, 对我国气温和降水的研究, 对青藏高原温度和降水、近地层与边界层地-气过程, 大气热源特征和臭氧变化的研究, 古气候模拟, 对气候变化的预测理论和方法以及气候和气候变化对我国社会、经济的影响等方面的研究。近50年中国气象科学研究院收集大量气候资料并整理出版了《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》; 对风能等资源进行了气候区划; 明确了近几十年中国地区在20世纪40年代和90年代出现了两个暖期, 20世纪50—60年代出现了相对冷期; 在全球变暖的背景下, 以四川为中心的西南地区自20世纪50年代到80年代一直在变冷; 20世纪80年代以后, 多雨带由华北南移到长江中下游地区; 提出青藏高原近地层与边界层地-气过程的综合物理图像; 发现青藏高原夏季臭氧低值中心; 模拟出青藏高原隆起过程中中国气候变化特征; 揭示出东亚季风环流系统及其成员; 设计了多种预报方法; 还将气候和气候变化研究成果向国家经济转化。 相似文献
16.
A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper describes the construction of a climate change scenario for a region representing the extended Tropics – 30° N to 30° S – using a methodology that combines results from a simple climate model and a Global Climate Model (GCM) transient climate change experiment. The estimated date by which this climate change scenario might be realized ranges from as early as the end of the 2030s to as late as well into the 22nd century. The central estimate is for this scenario to describe the climate of the 2060s, which would represent a global warming rate of about 0.2 °C per decade, with associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations estimated to be about 560 ppmv, 55% higher than 1990 levels. The role of anthropogenic aerosols in offsetting part of this future global warming and altering the regional character of the changes has not been considered. The paper presents changes in mean temperature; mean rainfall; rainfall seasonality, variability, frequency, and intensity and soil moisture. These patterns of change derive from only one GCM climate change experiment; different experiments would yield different patterns for the same global warming. There is also some discussion about possible changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity, although since TCs remain poorly modelled in GCMs, the full range of possibilities (from reduced activity, through no change, to increased activity) should be considered in any impact assessment. 相似文献
17.
采用分位数映射（Quantile Mapping, QM）和delta分位数映射（Quantile Delta Mapping, QDM）两种误差订正方法对区域气候模式RegCM4在中国区域内模拟的逐日气温和降水数据进行订正。模式数据是5种不同全球气候模式驱动下的区域模式气候变化模拟结果。计算订正前后的极端气候指数进行对比分析,包括日最高气温极大值（TXx）、日最低气温极小值（TNn）、连续干旱日数（CDD）和最大日降水量（RX1day）。结果表明,5组模拟结果和其集合平均（ensR）都显示气温指数的模拟效果高于降水指数,其中对TXx模拟最好,对CDD的模拟最差;经过订正后,针对不同模式的两种订正结果都能够有效地减小模式与观测的偏差并提高了空间相关系数,且两种方法的订正效果无明显差别。对RCP4.5情景下未来变化的分析中,QM在一定程度上改变了模式模拟的未来变化幅度和空间分布特征,QDM则能够有效地保留所有极端指数的气候变化信号。从全国平均来看,除CDD外,所有指数未来都呈现增加趋势,且QDM订正结果与订正前模式模拟的变化趋势更为接近。建议在气候变化模拟的误差订正中采用QDM方法。 相似文献
18.
Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime. 相似文献
19.
Growing attention to the impacts of climate change around the world has been accompanied by the profusion of discourses about the lives, livelihoods, and geographies that are “viable” and those that are not in the time of climate change. These discourses of viability often invoke concrete physical limits and tipping points suggesting a transcendent natural order. Conversely, I demonstrate how viability is co-produced through political economic structures that exercise power at multiple scales in shaping the environment and understandings of how it is changing. I describe three dialectics of this co-production: epistemic/material (between ideas about viability and their biophysical and political economic conditions), epistemic/normative (between how the world is understood to be and ideas about how we should live in it), and inter-scalar (between geographic scales, where action at one scale shapes both ecologies and understandings of possible action at another). Each of these dialectics shapes the knowledge regimes that govern the ambiguous social and biophysical process of disappearance and foreclosure of livelihood possibilities in the time of climate change. I examine these discourses of viability through narratives of unviable agrarian livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh, as a lens through which to examine the dialectics of viability more broadly. I situate these discourses concretely in relation to an analysis of interdisciplinary social and natural scientific research on ecological and agrarian viability in coastal Bangladesh now and in the future. Across a broad interdisciplinary spectrum, I find that scientific attention to political economy shapes the politics of possibility. Finally, I demonstrate how discourses of viability limit alternative possible economic and ecological futures. I do this through a concrete examination of the co-production of viable agrarian futures within communities in coastal Bangladesh. These alternative visions indicate that the viability of agriculture is shaped by historical and ongoing decisions in the present about cultivation, water management, and development intervention. 相似文献