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1.
The minimum winter temperature series for the United States Gulf Coast for 1799–1988 (190 values) was subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Significant periodicities in the QBO region (T-2–3 years) and atT=3.7, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 12.9, 15.5 and 22 years were detected. Some of these were present in the first half only (1799–1893) while others in the latter half only (1894–1988), indicating a transient nature. Also, more than 50% of the variance was random. Many of the significant periodicities are seen in other geophysical parameters. Some may be harmonics of the 11-year sunspot cycle and the 22-year Hale magnetic sunspot cycle.  相似文献   

2.
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3.
T phases of three earthquakes from the Indian Ocean region, recorded by a short-period vertical-component seismic station network located in the vicinity of Kanyakumari on the southernmost tip of India, are studied. Two of these earthquakes are located west of 90°E ridge and one in the Nicobar Island region. However, seven other earthquakes which occurred 150–200 km south of Kanyakumari in the ocean did not produceT phases. An analysis ofT-waves (tertiary waves) travel time reveals the zone ofP-wave toT-wave conversion (i.e.,PT phase) region to coincide with the western continental slope of Srilanka. Further, it is observed that the disposition of the bathymetry between Srilanka and southern India strongly favours the downslope propagation mechanism ofT-wave travel to the southern coast of India through SOFAR channel. These observations are reported for the first time from India.  相似文献   

4.
Coda site amplification factors are used to eliminate the site effect from records of three circum-PacificT phases recorded by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) network on the island of Hawaii. ObservedT-phase amplitudes across the island generally decrease with increasing distance from the conversion point where acoustic waves in the SOFAR channel become seismic waves propagating through the crust. However, the decay of the observedT-phase signal across the island is not regular in regions of dense station coverage, in particular, the Kilauea caldera region. We divide the maximum observedT-phase amplitudes at a given station by the coda site amplification factor obtained for the same station and frequency band (3.0Hz); the distribution of these amplitudes reveals a smooth pattern over the entire island. The distance over which the site effect-correctedT-phase amplitude decreases by one-half, combined with the apparent velocity of propagation ofT phases across the island, allows for an approximate determination of near-surfaceQ over much of the island of Hawaii. We found a region of lowQ in the Kilauea summit area (Q≈30) and east rift zone (Q≈60) with considerably higherQ in the Kaoiki and northern portions of the island (Q≈150 to 200). The lowQ values obtained in the Kilauea summit region and east rift zone are significantly lower than estimates of codaQ in the same region, suggestingT phases may be sampling the earth's near-surface properties.  相似文献   

5.
Bankfull discharge was identified in some 30 gravel-bed rivers representing in total c. 40 gauging stations. The catchment sizes cary from 4km2 to nearly 2700km2. Bankfull discharge value increases with basin size. In the case of gravel-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum, the following equation emerges: Qb=0·087 A1·044. Bankfull discharge recurrence interval was determined by fitting maximum annual floods (Ta) into Gumbel's distribution and then using the partial duration series (Tp) in this same distribution. Recurrence interval is below 0·7 years (Tp) for small pebble-bed rivers developed on an impermeable substratum; it reaches 1·1 to 1·5 years when the catchment size of these rivers exceeds 250km2. Rivers incised in the soft schists of the Famenne show larger channel capacity at bankfull stage, a small width/depth ratio and thus higher recurrence intervals (1·4–5·3 years with Ta and 1–4·4 years with Tp). Baseflow-dominated gravel-bed streams and sandy or silty rivers experience less frequent bankfull discharges, with a recurrence interval higher than 2 or even 3 years (Tp). © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant Tmean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in Tmax (during the 1970s) than in Tmin (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
From stable carbon isotope analysis of tree-rings of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) from Mt. Helan, China, we found that high-δ13C values were related to high mean temperatures from June to August (T 68), and Iow-δ13C values corresponded to low T 68. From these data, a transfer function has been used to reconstruct summer temperatures (T 68) for the Mt. Helan region. The explained variance of reconstruction is 34.9% (F=15.01, p<0.001). The time period containing the highest summer temperatures in northern China (late 1920-1930s) was confirmed by our reconstruction. The data indicate that there is a tele-connection between summer temperatures in Mt. Helan area and sea-surface-temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The extreme low temperature periods around the years of 1920 and 1947 for Mt. Helan region correspond well to the cold climate in the tropical Pacific. Along with other analyses, this suggests that climate variations in the Mt. Helan region are driven not only by local events, but also by the global climate. Significant periodicities appearing in the reconstruction are 2.56 and 2.63 years.  相似文献   

8.
Stream temperature (Ts) is a key water quality parameter that controls several biological, ecological, and chemical processes in aquatic systems. In forested headwaters, exchanges of energy across air-water-streambed interfaces may influence Ts regimes, especially during storm events as the sources of runoff change over space and time. Analysis of the hysteretic behaviour of Ts during storm events may provide insights into rainfall-runoff responses, but such relationships have not been thoroughly investigated. As such, our objectives were to (a) quantify the variability of stream temperature hysteresis across seasons in different sub-regions and (b) investigate the relationship between the hysteretic response and catchment characteristics. Ts hysteresis during storm events was assessed based on the hysteresis index (HI), which describes the directionality of hysteresis loops, and the temperature response index (TRI), which indicates whether Ts increased or decreased during a storm event. We analysed Ts data from 10 forested headwater reaches in two sub-regions (McGarvey and West Fork Tectah) in Northern California. We also performed a clustering analysis to examine the relationship amongst HI, TRI, topographic metrics, and meteorological characteristics of the study areas. Overall, the hysteretic behaviour of Ts varied across seasons—the greatest HI occurred during spring and summer. Interestingly, in the McGarvey streams the variability in Ts hysteresis co-varied strongly with topographic metrics (i.e., upslope accumulative area, average channel slope, topographic wetness index). Comparatively, in West Fork Tectah the variability of Ts hysteresis co-varied most strongly with meteorological metrics (i.e., antecedent rainfall events, solar radiation, and air temperature). Variables such as the gradient between stream and air temperatures, slope, and wetted width were significant for both sub-regional hysteretic patterns. We posit that the drivers of Ts response during storms are likely dependent on catchment physiographic characteristics. Our study also illustrated the potential utility of stream temperature as a tracer for improving the understanding of hydrologic connectivity and shifts in the dominant runoff contributions to streamflow during storm events.  相似文献   

9.
Flow regulation is widely known to modify the thermal regime of rivers. Here, we examine the sensitivity of an empirical approach, the Equilibrium Temperature Concept (ETC), to detect both the effects of hydraulic infrastructures on the annual thermal cycle and the recovery of the thermal equilibrium with the atmosphere. Analysis was undertaken in a Pyrenean river (the Noguera Pallaresa, Ebro basin) affected by a series of reservoirs and hydropower plants. Equilibrium temperature (Te) is defined as the water temperature (Tw) at which the sum of all heat fluxes is zero. Based on the assumption of a linear relationship between Te and Tw, we identified changes in the Te–Tw regression slope, used as an indicator of a thermal alteration in river flow. We also assessed the magnitude of the alteration by examining the regression slope and its statistical significance. Variations in the regression parameters were used as indicators of the influence of factors other than atmospheric conditions on water temperature. Observed Tw showed a linear relationship with Te at all river stations. However, the slopes of the Te–Tw relationship appeared to be lower in the reaches downstream from hydraulic infrastructures, particularly below large dams. A seasonal analysis indicated that Te–Tw relationships had higher slopes and lower p‐values during autumn, while no significant differences were found at other seasons. Although thermal characteristics did not strongly depend on atmospheric conditions downstream of hydraulic infrastructures, the river recovered to pre‐alteration conditions with distance downstream, indicating the natural tendency of water to attain thermal equilibrium with the atmosphere. Accepting associated uncertainties, mostly because of the quality of the data and the lack of consideration of other factors influencing the thermal regime (e.g. discharge), ETC appears to be a simple and effective method to identify thermal alterations in regulated rivers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

Two entities of importance in hydrological droughts, viz. the longest duration, LT , and the largest magnitude, MT (in standardized terms) over a desired time period (which could also correspond to a specific return period) T, have been analysed for weekly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. Analysis has been carried out in terms of week-by-week standardized values of flow sequences, designated as SHI (standardized hydrological index). The SHI sequence is truncated at the median level for identification and evaluation of expected values of the above random variables, E(LT ) and E(MT ). SHI sequences tended to be strongly autocorrelated and are modelled as autoregressive order-1, order-2 or autoregressive moving average order-1,1. The drought model built on the theorem of extremes of random numbers of random variables was found to be less satisfactory for the prediction of E(LT ) and E(MT ) on a weekly basis. However, the model has worked well on a monthly (weakly Markovian) and an annual (random) basis. An alternative procedure based on a second-order Markov chain model provided satisfactory prediction of E(LT ). Parameters such as the mean, standard deviation (or coefficient of variation), and lag-1 serial correlation of the original weekly flow sequences (obeying a gamma probability distribution function) were used to estimate the simple and first-order drought probabilities through closed-form equations. Second-order probabilities have been estimated based on the original flow sequences as well as SHI sequences, utilizing a counting method. The E(MT ) can be predicted as a product of drought intensity (which obeys the truncated normal distribution) and E(LT ) (which is based on a mixture of first- and second-order Markov chains).

Citation Sharma, T. C. & Panu, U. S. (2010) Analytical procedures for weekly hydrological droughts: a case of Canadian rivers. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 79–92.  相似文献   

11.
Abstract

The standardized series of monthly and weekly flow sequences, referred to as standardized hydrological index (SHI) series, from five rivers in the Canadian prairies were subjected to return period (Tr) analysis of drought length (L). The SHI series were truncated at drought probability levels q ranging from 0.5 to 0.05 with the intention of deducing drought events and corresponding drought lengths. The values of L were fitted to the Pearson 3, the gamma (2-parameter), the exponential (1-parameter), the Weibull 3 and the Weibull (2-parameter) probability density functions (pdfs). A priori assignment of one week or one month for the location parameter in the Pearson 3 pdf proved logical and also facilitated the rapid estimation of other parameters using either the method of moments or the method of maximum likelihood. The Pearson 3 turns out to be the most suitable pdf to describe and to estimate return periods of drought lengths. At the monthly and weekly time scales, it was inferred that the sample size (T, months or weeks) of SHI series could be treated equivalent to the return period of the largest recorded drought length. At the annual time scale, however, the sample size (T, years) should be modified using either the Hazen or the Gringorten plotting position formula to reflect the actual return period of the largest recorded drought length in years.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor E. Gargouri  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

A hydrological drought magnitude (M T ) expressed in standardized terms is predicted on annual, monthly and weekly time scales for a sampling period of T years in streamflow data from the Canadian prairies. The drought episodes are considered to follow the Poisson law of probability and, when coupled with the gamma probability distribution function (pdf) of drought magnitude (M) in the extreme number theorem, culminate in a relationship capable of evaluating the expected value, E(M T ). The parameters of the underlying pdf of M are determined based on the assumption that the drought intensity follows a truncated normal pdf. The E(M T ) can be evaluated using only standard deviation (σ), lag-1 autocorrelation (ρ) of the standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequence, and a weighting parameter Φ (ranging from 0 to 1) to account for the extreme drought duration (L T ), as well as the mean drought duration (Lm ), in a characteristic drought length (Lc ). The SHI is treated as standard normal variate, equivalent to the commonly-used standardized precipitation index. A closed-form relationship can be used for the estimation of first-order conditional probabilities, which can also be estimated from historical streamflow records. For all rivers, at the annual time scale, the value of Φ was found equal to 0.5, but it tends to vary (in the range 0 to 1) from river to river at monthly and weekly time scales. However, for a particular river, the Φ value was nearly constant at monthly and weekly time scales. The proposed method estimates E(M T ) satisfactorily comparable to the observed counterpart. At the annual time scale, the assumption of a normal pdf for drought magnitude tends to yield results in close proximity to that of a gamma pdf. The M T , when transformed into deficit-volume, can form a basis for designing water storage facilities and for planning water management strategies during drought periods.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Sharma, T.C. and Panu, U.S., 2013. A semi-empirical method for predicting hydrological drought magnitudes in the Canadian prairies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (3), 549–569.  相似文献   

13.
Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data (CC) series for 1932–1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the (AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed (AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity wasT=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities atT=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5a priori i.e., 2a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may betransient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

Estimates of trends of climatic changes at basin and state scales are required for developing adaptation strategies related to planning, development and management of water resources. In the present study, seasonal and annual trends of changes in maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), mean temperature (T mean), temperature range (T range), highest maximum temperature (H max) and lowest minimum temperature (L min) have been examined at the basin scale. The longest available records over the last century, for 43 stations covering nine river basins in northwest and central India, were used in the analysis. Of the nine river basins studied, seven showed a warming trend, whereas two showed a cooling trend. The Narmada and Sabarmati river basins experienced the maximum warming and cooling, respectively. The majority of basins in the study area show increasing trend in T range, H max and L min. Seasonal analysis of different variables shows that the greatest changes in T max and T mean were observed in the post-monsoon season, while T min experienced the greatest change in the monsoon season. This analysis provides scenarios of temperature changes which may be used for sensitivity analysis of water availability for different basins, and accordingly in planning and implementation of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):503-518
Abstract

Two parameters of importance in hydrological droughts viz. the longest duration, LT and the largest severity, ST (in standardized form) over a desired return period, T years, have been analysed for monthly flow sequences of Canadian rivers. An important point in the analysis is that monthly sequences are non-stationary (periodic-stochastic) as against annual flows, which fulfil the conditions of stochastic stationarity. The parameters mean, μ, standard deviation, σ (or coefficient of variation), lag1 serial correlation, ρ, and skewness, γ (which is helpful in identifying the probability distribution function) of annual flow sequences, when used in the analytical relationships, are able to predict expected values of the longest duration, E(LT ) in years and the largest standardized severity, E(ST ). For monthly flow sequences, there are 12 sets of these parameters and thus the issue is how to involve these parameters to derive the estimates of E(LT ) and E(ST ). Moreover, the truncation level (i.e. the monthly mean value) varies from month to month. The analysis in this paper demonstrates that the drought analysis on an annual basis can be extended to monthly droughts simply by standardizing the flows for each month. Thus, the variable truncation levels corresponding to the mean monthly flows were transformed into one unified truncation level equal to zero. The runs of deficits in the standardized sequences are treated as drought episodes and thus the theory of runs forms an essential tool for analysis. Estimates of the above parameters (denoted as μav, σav, ρav, and γav) for use in the analytical relationships were obtained by averaging 12 monthly values for each parameter. The product- and L-moment ratio analyses indicated that the monthly flows in the Canadian rivers fit the gamma probability distribution reasonably well, which resulted in the satisfactory prediction of E(LT ). However, the prediction of E(ST ) tended to be more satisfactory with the assumption of a Markovian normal model and the relationship E(ST ) ≈ E(LT ) was observed to perform better.  相似文献   

16.
Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS) is nowadays accepted as a new geophysical method that can be used for a reliable determination of the ground water content distribution in the top 150 m. A great effort has also been made in MRS development to deduce the hydraulic transmissivity, based on empiric relationships of the permeability with a factor F which is calculated with NMR parameters measured at laboratory scale. To use this relationship under field conditions a calibration coefficient CT = Tpt / F has to be previously established, which demands the knowledge of the transmissivity Tpt evaluated in the pumping test. The transmissivity can then be calculated at any other site of the same aquifer using the relation Tmrs = CTF. The CT values reported suggest a certain relationship with the lithology, but with a great dispersion and contradictory results. MRS surveys carried out in alluvial aquifers in Spain have shown that the value of CT evaluated at one site may not be valid at another place of the same aquifer, because of the great heterogeneity of this kind of geological environment. The demand of a pumping test at each site where a MRS is measured invalidates the method actually used for MRS transmissivity evaluation. More than 50 MRS have been used to propose a new methodology. The aquifers visited cover a great range of transmissivities (from 2 × 10− 6 to 9 × 10− 3 m2/s). The MRS signal amplitude varies between 20 and 1400 nV, the signal/noise ratio is in the range from 0.6 to 42, and the value of the decay time constant varies from 200 to 800 ms. It has been demonstrated that when the transmissivity increases, the value of F decreases, and CT increases, except for certain groups of MRS taken at the same aquifer or part of one aquifer, for which F increases with Tpt, keeping CT constant. A function CT(F) of the type CT = mF− n has been obtained that allows the transmissivity evaluation without the need of Tpt. Considering that both values of transmissivity, Tpt and Tmrs, are subjected to deviations due to the experimental errors as well as due to evaluation errors, the prediction achieved by the proposed equation is rather good. To perform a better evaluation of the values of the coefficients m and n it is necessary to have a greater number of MR soundings of good quality and with a trustworthy inversion at locations where a really comparable and good performed pumping test is available, covering a sufficient range of transmissivities. Though the data we have used do not always fulfil these conditions, the result is promising. Once a trustable function is available, the forecast of the transmissivity using MRS will not need the existence of any pumping test in the area. The general extension of this methodology demands the availability of MRS taken at all kinds of geological and hydrogeological environments, which is impossible without the existence of a universal MRS data base.  相似文献   

17.
在分析已有资料的基础上划分了兰州盆地与建设工程分布密切相关的T0、T1、T2、T3和T4级黄河阶地,建立201个土层地震反应模型。通过一维等效线性化计算和反应谱分析,得出兰州盆地沉积阶地50年超越概率10%地表地震动参数,分析阶地高度和vS≤500 m/s覆盖层厚度特征与地震动参数峰值加速度Am和加速度反应谱特征周期Tg的相关性。表明兰州盆地T0~T2阶地覆盖层厚度与50年超越概率10%Am呈正相关,T3及以上阶地覆盖层厚度对Am增大有明显的减小作用。Tg值随T0~T3阶地覆盖层厚度的增加而变大,当覆盖层厚度进一步变大,Tg值不再同步增大,阶地覆盖层厚度对Tg的影响是有限的,阶地海拔高度与地表50年超越概率10%地震动参数没有关系。  相似文献   

18.
In the last five years, magnetic resonance sounding (MRS), as a non-invasive geophysical method, has emerged as a new technique for ground water investigation in Vietnam. In this paper, we present the general theoretical basis of this method together with acquisition, processing, and interpretation of the MRS data. We show a case study of MRS surveys in sand dunes area in order to characterize aquifers situated in the southern part of Vietnam. From the interpretation of MRS soundings we delimited an aquifer layer in the subsurface with strong lateral variations for which we determined the depth at 44 m and water content between 3% and 9.5%. The longitudinal relaxation constant T*1 is about 250 m s, while the transverse relaxation T*2 is between 150–200 m s. That indicates fine to medium grain size and thus low to medium hydraulic permeability. These results are confirmed by the observations from the well LK1 between 45 to 70 m. The results of other MRS measurements showed the presence of a low water bearing aquifer and were confirmed by the observations in two other wells.  相似文献   

19.
Variation with solar activity level of the ratios of the critical frequencies of the F2 layer, foF2, is considered for various pairs of local time moments T1 and T2 for two seasons (winter and summer). It is found that, as a rule, the foF2(T1)/foF2(T2) behavior with the solar activity index F10.7 is different in winter and summer. The variations of foF2(T1)/foF2(T2) with F10.7 obtained from experimental data are considered from the viewpoint of the current theory of F2-layer formation. It is shown that the majority of observed characteristics of these variations are explained using the above-indicated theory. However, special cases of foF2(T1)/foF2(T2) behavior with solar activity are found for which there is still no physical explanation.  相似文献   

20.
 Physical properties of cryptodome and remelted samples of the Mount St. Helens grey dacite have been measured in the laboratory. The viscosity of cryptodome dacite measured by parallel–plate viscometry ranges from 10.82 to 9.94 log10 η (Pa s) (T=900–982  °C), and shrinkage effects were dilatometrically observed at T>900  °C. The viscosity of remelted dacite samples measured by the micropenetration method is 10.60–9.25 log10 η (Pa s) (T=736–802  °C) and viscosities measured by rotational viscometry are 3.22–1.66 log10 η (Pa s) (T=1298–1594  °C). Comparison of the measured viscosity of cryptodome dacitic samples with the calculated viscosity of corresponding water-bearing melt demonstrates significant deviations between measured and calculated values. This difference reflects a combination of the effect of crystals and vesicles on the viscosity of dacite as well as the insufficient experimental basis for the calculation of crystal-bearing vesicular melt viscosities at low temperature. Assuming that the cryptodome magma of the 18 May 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption was residing at 900  °C with a phenocryst content of 30 vol.%, a vesicularity of 36 vol.% and a bulk water content of 0.6 wt.%, we estimate the magma viscosity to be 1010.8 Pa s. Received: 25 August 1996 / Accepted: 19 July 1997  相似文献   

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