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1.
A stochastic prediction model for the sunspot cycle is proposed. The prediction model is based on a modified binary mixture
of Laplace distribution functions and a moving-average model over the estimated model parameters. A six-parameter modified
binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions is used for the modeling of the shape of a generic sunspot cycle. The model
parameters are estimated for 23 sunspot cycles independently, and the primary prediction-model parameters are derived from
these estimated model parameters using a moving-average stochastic model. A correction factor (hump factor) is introduced
to make an initial prediction. The hump factor is computed for a given sunspot cycle as the ratio of the model estimated after
the completion of a sunspot cycle (post-facto model) and the prediction of the moving-average model. The hump factors can be applied one at a time over the moving-average
prediction model to get a final prediction of a sunspot cycle. The present model is used to predict the characteristics of
Sunspot Cycle 24. The methodology is validated using the previous Sunspot Cycles 21, 22, and 23, which shows the adequacy
and the applicability of the prediction model. The statistics of the variations of sunspot numbers at high solar activity
are used to provide the lower and upper bound for the predictions using the present model. 相似文献
2.
A new calibration model for pointing a radio telescope that considers nonlinear errors in the azimuth axis 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A new calibration model of a radio telescope that includes pointing error is presented, which considers nonlinear errors in the azimuth axis. For a large radio telescope, in particular for a telescope with a turntable, it is difficult to correct pointing errors using a traditional linear calibration model, because errors produced by the wheel-on-rail or center bearing structures are generally nonlinear. Fourier expansion is made for the oblique error and parameters describing the inclination direction along the azimuth axis based on the linear calibration model, and a new calibration model for pointing is derived. The new pointing model is applied to the 40 m radio telescope administered by Yunnan Observatories, which is a telescope that uses a turntable. The results show that this model can significantly reduce the residual systematic errors due to nonlinearity in the azimuth axis compared with the linear model. 相似文献
3.
An analytic magnetic field model for the Earth's magnetosphere is constructed from a dipole field and a tail field. This model can be taken as a generalization of the Dungey's model, after one adds to it a horizontal component. The magnetic topology in the noon-midnight meridian plane of this model is fully determined and it is compared with the topology of other models. In this study it is found that, for a specific value of the parameterk, which is associated to any form of the model, the noon's side neutral points obey a bifurcation scheme. 相似文献
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5.
It is an objective fact that there exists error in the satellite dynamic model and it will be transferred to satellite orbit determination algorithm, forming a part of the connotative model error. Mixed with the systematic error and random error of the measurements, they form the unitive model error and badly restrict the precision of the orbit determination. We deduce in detail the equations of orbit improvement for a system with dynamic model error, construct the parametric model for the explicit part of the model and nonparametric model for the error that can not be explicitly described. We also construct the partially linear orbit determination model, estimate and fit the model error using a two-stage estimation and a kernel function estimation, and finally make the corresponding compensation in the orbit determination. Beginning from the data depth theory, a data depth weight kernel estimator for model error is proposed for the sake of promoting the steadiness of model error estimation. Simulation experiments of SBSS are performed. The results show clearly that the model error is one of the most important effects that will influence the precision of the orbit determination. The kernel function method can effectively estimate the model error, with the window width as a major restrict parameter. A data depth-weight-kernel estimation, however, can improve largely the robustness of the kernel function and therefore improve the precision of orbit determination. 相似文献
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7.
本文讨论的是中子星自洽的有限磁层大气模型,先用试探解方法得到一个解析解,它给出有限磁层大气的分布轮廓,然后用能量最小原理讨论了其特性,取得了有意义的结果。同时,通过对其等离子体与真空交界面的研究,得出其交界面也是稳定的。最后,我们对模型的发展作了展望,指出赤道区的超共转,可能与子脉冲漂移有关,从这个模型出发,我们将可能最终建立一个自洽的有辐射的模型。 相似文献
8.
Michael E. Purucker 《Icarus》2008,197(1):19-23
A preliminary model of the internal magnetic field of the Moon is developed using a novel, correlative technique on the low-altitude Lunar Prospector magnetic field observations. Subsequent to the removal of a simple model of the external field, an internal dipole model is developed for each pole-to-pole half-orbit. This internal dipole model exploits Lunar Prospector's orbit geometry and incorporates radial and theta vector component data from immediately adjacent passes into the model. These adjacent passes are closely separated in space and time and are thus characteristic of a particular lunar regime (wake, solar wind, magnetotail, magnetosheath) or regimes. Each dipole model thus represents the correlative parts of three adjacent passes, and provides an analytic means of continuing the data to a constant surface of 30 km above the mean lunar radius. The altitude-normalized radial field from the wake and tail regimes is used to build a model in which 99.2% of the 360 by 360 bins covering the lunar surface are filled. This global model of the radial magnetic field is used to construct a degree 178 spherical harmonic model of the field via the Driscoll and Healy sampling theorem. Terms below about degree 150 are robust, and polar regions are considered to be the least reliable. The model resolves additional detail in the low magnetic field regions of the Imbrium and Orientale basins, and also in the four anomaly clusters antipodal to the large lunar basins. The model will be of use in understanding the sources of the internal field, and as a first step in modeling the interaction of the internal field with the solar wind. 相似文献
9.
J. Crummy A. C. Fabian L. Gallo R. R. Ross 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(4):1067-1081
We present a large sample of type 1 active galactic nuclei (AGN) spectra taken with XMM–Newton , and fit them with both the conventional model (a power law and blackbody) and the relativistically blurred photoionized disc reflection model of Ross & Fabian. We find that the disc reflection model is a better fit. The disc reflection model successfully reproduces the continuum shape, including the soft excess, of all the sources. The model also reproduces many features that would conventionally be interpreted as absorption edges. We are able to use the model to infer the properties of the sources, specifically that the majority of black holes in the sample are strongly rotating, and that there is a deficit in sources with an inclination >70°. We conclude that the disc reflection model is an important tool in the study of AGN X-ray spectra. 相似文献
10.
Anantha Chanumolu Sivarani Thirupathi Damien Jones Sunetra Giridhar Deon Grobler Robert Jakobsson 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,43(1):39-58
As a continuation to the published work on model based calibration technique with HESP(Hanle Echelle Spectrograph) as a case study, in this paper we present the performance results of the technique. We also describe how the open parameters were chosen in the model for optimization, the glass data accuracy and handling the discrepancies. It is observed through simulations that the discrepancies in glass data can be identified but not quantifiable. So having an accurate glass data is important which is possible to obtain from the glass manufacturers. The model’s performance in various aspects is presented using the ThAr calibration frames from HESP during its pre-shipment tests. Accuracy of model predictions and its wave length calibration comparison with conventional empirical fitting, the behaviour of open parameters in optimization, model’s ability to track instrumental drifts in the spectrum and the double fibres performance were discussed. It is observed that the optimized model is able to predict to a high accuracy the drifts in the spectrum from environmental fluctuations. It is also observed that the pattern in the spectral drifts across the 2D spectrum which vary from image to image is predictable with the optimized model. We will also discuss the possible science cases where the model can contribute. 相似文献
11.
H. C. Spruit 《Solar physics》1974,34(2):277-290
A model of the convection zone is presented which matches an empirical model atmosphere (HSRA) and an interior model. A mixing length formalism containing four adjustable parameters is used. Thermodynamical considerations provide limits on two of these parameters. The average temperature-pressure relation depends on two or three combinations of the four parameters. Observational information on the structure of the outermost layers of the convection zone, and the value of the solar radius limit the range of possible parameter combinations. It is shown that in spite of the remaining freedom of choice of the parameters, the mean temperature-pressure relation is fixed well by these data.The reality of a small density inversion in the HSRA model is investigated. The discrepancy between the present model and a solar model by Mullan (1971) is discussed briefly. 相似文献
12.
《New Astronomy》2021
We consider an extended Chaplygin gas equation of state which is driven from D-brane action and construct a cosmological model based on this equation of state. In this regard, we compute the scale factor of the model under a certain approximation. The conservation equation of this case is a non-linear differential equation which should solve using the special conditions. We also analyze the stability of the model by using sound speed as well as adiabatic index and discuss certain special cases of the model. We find special equation of state in this model which yields to dynamical and thermodynamical stability. Furthermore, we study the cosmological consequences of this model under certain conditions. 相似文献
13.
We have studied a model of relativistic fireworks. In this model it is assumed that a series of explosions occur. In each explosion the fragments fly apart in arbitrary directions with a given velocity which is a parameter in the model.We have succeeded in obtaining an exact expression for the distribution of fragments in velocity space aftern explosions.We present an exact solution also in the limiting case of small velocity steps where the process turns into a diffusion in velocity space.The development in configuration space has been obtained through Monte-Carlo numerical simulations.The model has been applied to metagalactic cosmology. Although single explosions cannot reach the highest redshifts observed in the Hubble expansion the fireworks model offers a possibility to reach thesez-values in a few explosions.The model gives a density inhomogeneity of 20% over a tenth of the Hubble distance as seen from a typical position. Observations show a considerably greater irregular variation.The model gives a local velocity dispersion which is too great to comply with observations. A development of the model is suggested. 相似文献
14.
We show that binned differential luminosity functions constructed using the 1/ V a method have a significant systematic error for objects close to the flux limit(s) of their parent sample. This is particularly noticeable when luminosity functions are produced for a number of different redshift ranges as is common in the study of AGN or galaxy evolution. We present a simple method of constructing a binned luminosity function which overcomes this problem and has a number of other advantages over the traditional 1/ V a method. We also describe a practical method for comparing binned and model luminosity functions, by calculating the expectation values of the binned luminosity function from the model.
Binned luminosity functions produced by the two methods are compared for simulated data and for the Large Bright QSO Survey (LBQS). It is shown that the 1/ Va method produces a very misleading picture of evolution in the LBQS. The binned luminosity function of the LBQS is then compared with a model two-power-law luminosity function undergoing pure luminosity evolution from Boyle et al. The comparison is made using a model luminosity function averaged over each redshift shell, and using the expectation values for the binned luminosity function calculated from the model. The luminosity function averaged in each redshift shell gives a misleading impression that the model over predicts the number of QSOs at low luminosity even for 1.0< z <1.5, when model and data are consistent. The expectation values show that there are significant differences between model and data: the model overpredicts the number of low luminosity sources at both low and high redshift. The luminosity function does not appear to steepen relative to the model as redshift increases. 相似文献
Binned luminosity functions produced by the two methods are compared for simulated data and for the Large Bright QSO Survey (LBQS). It is shown that the 1/ V
15.
This paper investigates a simplified model for describing the gravitational fields of nonaxisymmetric elongated asteroids. The connection between the simplified model and the target asteroid is built by considering the positions of equilibrium points. To improve the performance of position matching for the equilibrium points associated with these non-axisymmetric asteroids, a nonaxisymmetric triple-particle-linkage model is proposed based on two existing axisymmetric particlelinkage models. The unknown parameters of the simplified model are determined by minimizing the matching error using the nonlinear optimization method. The proposed simplified model is applied for three realistic elongated asteroids, 243 Ida, 433 Eros and(8567) 1996 HW1. The simulation results verify that the current particle-linkage model has better matching accuracy than the two existing particle-linkage models. The comparison, between the simplified model and the polyhedral model, on the topological cases of the equilibrium points and the distribution of gravitational potential further validate the rationality and accuracy of the simplified model. 相似文献
16.
A numerical model is presented to simulate the influence function of deformable mirror actuators. The numerical model is formed by Bessel Fourier orthogonal functions, which are constituted of Bessel orthogonal functions and a Fourier basis. A detailed comparison is presented between the new Bessel Fourier model, the Zernike model, the Gaussian influence function and the modified Gaussian influence function. Numerical experiments indicate that the new numerical model is easy to use and more accurate compared with other numerical models. The new numerical model can be used for describing deformable mirror performances and numerical simulations of adaptive optics systems. 相似文献
17.
望远镜静态指向模型的基本参数 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对地平式望远镜静态指出模型的基本参数进行了讨论，给出了一种参数较少，模型稳定的望远镜修正模型，与常用的球谐函修正模型相比较，基本参数模型具有对观测资料分布不敏感，模型的系随资料分布变化较小和修正精度较高优点，并且其残差序列服从正态分布，基本上能够满足高精度定轨的需要。 相似文献
18.
A new model of albedo and emissivity of the martian seasonal caps represented as porous CO2 slabs containing spherical voids and dust particles is described. In the model, a radiative transfer model is coupled with a microphysical model in order to link changes in albedo and emissivity to changes in porosity caused by ice metamorphism. The coupled model is capable of reproducing temporal changes in the spectra of the caps taken by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor and it can be used as the forward model in the retrievals of the caps' physical properties (porosity, dust abundance, void and dust grain size) from the spectra. Preliminary results from such inversion studies are presented. 相似文献
19.
Mission and hardware constraints make the Cassini radar altimeter working in the beam limited or pulse limited mode dependent on the radar operative mode (Low and High Resolution, respectively), but never allows work in a condition such that the pulsewidth limited circle is much smaller than the beamwidth limited circle. Unfortunately this latter condition is vital for the application of the so-called Brown model widely and successfully used in Earth (ocean) observation missions where the quoted condition is really met. In the paper a new model is discussed which is based on the same general hypotheses of the Brown model but is worked out by means of a different approach which makes it more general and independent of the specific operative conditions. An extension of the new model to take into account large mispointing angles is considered as well based on a series expansion of the Bessel function and on the analysis of the truncation error. Finally a comparison with the classical Brown model is discussed too. 相似文献
20.
《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2017,(4)
A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction.Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases.The outputs of the base models are normalized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods.Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model(MIM).The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm.Seven base models and data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager longitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM,and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation.Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group,and the richer the diversity of the base models,the better the performance of the MIM.Thus,integrating more diversified models,such as an expert system,a statistical model and a physical model,will greatly improve the performance of the MIM. 相似文献