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1.
From the monthly data of cosmic ray intensity (CRI), sunspot numbers (SSN) and solar flare index (SFI), an attempt has been
made to study the relationship between CRI and solar activity (SA) parameters SSN and SFI. The correlation between SA parameters
and CRI for different neutron monitoring stations having low, middle and high cut-off rigidity has been investigated. The
anti-correlation between SA and CRI is found to exist with some time lag. Based on the method of minimizing correlation coefficient
and time-delayed component method, the observed time-lag between SA parameters (SSN and SFI) and CRI has been found to be
large for odd solar cycles in comparison to even solar cycles. The results of time-lag analysis between CRI and SSN and between
CRI-SFI have also been compared. The findings of correlative study between CRI and SSN are in agreement with earlier results,
while the CRI-SFI relationship provides new insights to understand the solar modulation of cosmic rays. 相似文献
2.
Based on the monthly sunspot numbers (SSNs), the solar-flare index (SFI), grouped solar flares (GSFs), the tilt angle of heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24, a detailed correlation study has been performed using the cycle-wise average correlation (with and without time lag) method as well as by the “running cross-correlation” method. It is found that the slope of regression lines between SSN and SFI, as well as between SSN and GSF, is continuously decreasing from Solar Cycle 21 to 24. The length of regression lines has significantly decreased during Cycles 23 and 24 in comparison to Cycles 21 and 22. The cross-correlation coefficient (without time lag) between SSN–CRI, SFI–CRI, and GSF–CRI has been found to be almost the same during Cycles 21 and 22, while during Cycles 23 and 24 it is significantly higher between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI than for SFI–CRI and GSF–CRI. Considering time lags of 1 to 20 months, the maximum correlation coefficient (negative) amongst all of the sets of solar parameters is observed with almost the same time lags during Cycles 21?–?23, whereas exceptional behaviour of the time lag has been observed during Cycle 24, as the correlation coefficient attains its maximum value with two time lags (four and ten months) in the case of the SSN–CRI relationship. A remarkably large time lag (22 months) between HCS and CRI has been observed during the odd-numbered Cycle 21, whereas during another odd cycle, Cycle 23, the lag is small (nine months) in comparison to that for other solar/flare parameters (13?–?15 months). On the other hand, the time lag between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI has been found to be almost the same during even-numbered Solar Cycles 22 and 24. A similar analysis has been performed between SFI and CRI, and it is found that the correlation coefficient is maximum at zero time lag during the present solar cycle. The GSFs have shown better maximum correlation with CRI as compared to SFI during Cycles 21 to 23, indicating that GSF could also be used as a significant solar parameter to study the cosmic-ray modulation. Furthermore, the running cross-correlation coefficient between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI, as well as between solar-flare activity parameters (SFI and GSF) and CRI is observed to be strong during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. The level of cosmic-ray modulation during the period of investigation shows the appropriateness of different parameters in different cycles, and even during the different phases of a particular solar cycle. We have also studied the galactic cosmic-ray modulation in relation to combined solar and heliospheric parameters using the empirical model suggested by Paouris et al. (Solar Phys.280, 255, 2012). The proposed model for the calculation of the modulated cosmic-ray intensity obtained from the combination of solar and heliospheric parameter gives a very satisfactory value of standard deviation as well as \(R^{2}\) (the coefficient of determination) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24. 相似文献
3.
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic-ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the relation between simultaneous variations in cosmic ray intensity and solar/interplanetary parameters during the declining and the minimum phases of cycle 23. We compare these relations with those obtained for the same phases in the three previous solar cycles. We observe certain peculiar features in cosmic ray modulation during the minimum of solar cycle 23 including the record high GCR intensity. We find, during this unusual minimum, that the correlation of GCR intensity is poor with sunspot number (correlation coefficient R=?0.41), better with interplanetary magnetic field (R=?0.66), still better with solar wind velocity (R=?0.80) and much better with the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (R=?0.92). In our view, it is not the diffusion or the drift alone, but the solar wind convection that is the most likely additional effect responsible for the record high GCR intensity observed during the deep minimum of solar cycle 23. 相似文献
4.
Chandni Mathpal Lalan Prasad Meena Pokharia Chandrashekhar Bhoj 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(8):177
In the present study, we investigate the association of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) with various solar wind parameters (i.e. solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density), interplanetary magnetic field (IMF B), geomagnetic storms (GSs), averaged planetary A-index (Ap index) and sun spot number (SSN) for the period 2009–2016 (solar cycle 24) by using their daily mean average. To find the association of CRI with various solar wind parameters, GSs, IMF B, Ap index and SSN, we incorporate the analysis technique by superposed-epoch method. We have observed that CRI decreases with the increase in IMF B. Moreover the time-lag analysis has been performed by the method of correlation coefficient and observed a time lag of 0 to 2 day between the decrease in CRI and increase in IMF B. In addition, we show that the CRI is found to decrease in a similar pattern to disturbance storm time (Dst index) for most of the period of solar cycle 24. The high and positive correlation is found between CRI and Dst index. The CRI and Ap index are better anti-correlated to each other than CRI and IMF. CRI and SSN are positively correlated with each other. Solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V is a CR-effective parameter while plasma proton temperature and plasma proton density are not CR-effective parameters. The indicated parameters such as Dst index, Ap index, IMF B and solar wind parameters such as solar wind speed V, plasma proton temperature, plasma proton density shows a kind of irregular variations for solar cycle 23 and 24 while CRI and SSN shows distinct behaviour for the two cycle. 相似文献
5.
V. K. Mishra Meera Gupta B. N. Mishra S. K. Nigam A. P. Mishra 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2008,29(1-2):257-262
The long-term modulation of cosmic ray intensity (CRI) by different solar activity (SA) parameters and an inverse correlation between individual SA parameter and CRI is well known. Earlier, it has been suggested that the concept of multi-parametric modulation of CRI may play an important role in the study of long-term modulation of CRI. In the present study, we have tried to investigate the combined effect of a set of two SA parameters in the long-term modulation of CRI. For this purpose, we have used a new statistical technique called “Running multiple correlation method”, based on the “Running cross correlation method”. The running multiple correlation functions among different sets of two SA parameters (e.g., sunspot numbers and solar flux, sunspot numbers and coronal index, sunspot numbers and grouped solar flares, etc.) and CRI have been correlated separately. It is found that the strength of multiple correlation (among two SA parameters and CRI) and cross correlation (between individual SA parameter and CRI) is almost similar throughout the period of investigation (1955–2005). It is also found that the multiple correlations among various SA parameters and CRI is stronger during ascending and descending phases of the solar cycles and it becomes weaker during maxima and minima of the solar cycles, which is in accordance with the linear relationship between SA parameters and CRI. The values of multiple correlation functions among different sets of SA parameters and CRI fall well within the 95% confidence interval. In the view of odd-even hypothesis of solar cycles, the strange behaviour of present cycle 23 (odd cycle), as this is characterized by many peculiarities with double peaks and many quiet periods (Gnevyshev gaps) interrupted the solar activity (for example April 2001, October–November 2003 and January 2005), leads us to speculate that the solar cycle 24 (even cycle) might be of exceptional nature. 相似文献
6.
Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from 10Be in ice cores. 相似文献
7.
In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation. 相似文献
8.
《New Astronomy》2021
We study galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation during solar cycle 24. For this study we utilize neutron monitor data together with sunspot number (SSN) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (SRF) data. We plot hysteresis curve between the GCR intensity and SSN, and GCR intensity and SRF. We performed time-lag correlation analysis to determine the time lag between GCR intensity and solar activity parameters. The time lag is determined not only for the whole solar cycle, but also during the two polarity states of the heliosphere (A<0 and A>0) in solar cycle 24. We notice differences in time lags during two polarity epochs of the solar cycle. We discuss these differences in the light of existing modulation models. We compare the results of this very weak solar activity cycle with the corresponding results reported for the previous comparatively more active solar cycles. 相似文献
9.
Mykola I. Pishkalo 《Solar physics》2006,233(2):277-290
We have investigated the correlation between the relative sunspot number and tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS)
in solar cycles 21–23. Strong and highly significant positive correlation (r > 0.8, P < 0.001) was found for corresponding data in the time interval from May 1976 through December 2004. Cross-correlation analysis
does not reveal any time shift between the data sets. Reconstructed values of the HCS tilt, for the time interval before 1976,
are found using sunspot numbers. To take different amplitude of solar cycles into account they were then normalized to zero
in the minima of the solar activity and to average in solar cycles 21–23 maximal calculated HCS tilt in the maxima. These
normalized reconstructed HCS data are compared with the angular positions of the brightest coronal streamers observed during
total solar eclipses in 1870–2002, and their agreement is better for the minima of the solar activity than for the maxima. 相似文献
10.
We study the relationship of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity with similar variations of the solar
wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field based on observational data for the Bartels rotation period # 2379 of
23 November 2007 – 19 December 2007. We develop a three-dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic
ray intensity based on the heliolongitudinally dependent solar wind velocity. A consistent, divergence-free interplanetary
magnetic field is derived by solving Maxwell’s equations with a heliolongitudinally dependent 27-day variation of the solar
wind velocity reproducing in situ observations. We consider two types of 3-D models of the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, i) with a plane heliospheric neutral sheet, and ii) with the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field. The theoretical calculations show that the sector structure
does not significantly influence the 27-day variation of galactic cosmic ray intensity, as had been shown before, based on
observational data. Furthermore, good agreement is found between the time profiles of the theoretically expected and experimentally
obtained first harmonic waves of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity (with a correlation coefficient
of 0.98±0.02). The expected 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity is inversely correlated with the modulation
parameter ζ (with a correlation coefficient of −0.91±0.05), which is proportional to the product of the solar wind velocity
V and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field B (ζ∼VB). The high anticorrelation between these quantities indicates that the predicted 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic
ray intensity mainly is caused by this basic modulation effect. 相似文献
11.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2011,269(2):451-454
Cosmic ray neutron monitors show intensity changes (counts) anti-correlated with sunspot number R
z, but with a lag of a few months. The lag is ∼ 3 months for even cycles and ∼ 9 – 15 months for odd cycles. Thus, for the
recently started even Cycle 24, a lag of ∼ 3 months was expected. However, for Cycle 24, whereas R
z had a minimum value (zero) in August 2009, cosmic ray intensity decreased only after March 2010, with a lag of seven months
with respect to R
z. Thus, Cycle 24 did not conform to the known pattern of even cycles (lag of ∼ 3 months). It may be noted that the minimum
at the juncture of Cycle 23-24 was abnormally long, tens of months instead of few months as in earlier cycles. Also, in this
solar minimum, the cosmic ray intensity was much higher than in previous cycles. 相似文献
12.
The flux rate of cosmic rays incident on the Earth’s upper atmosphere is modulated by the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic
field. The amount of solar wind is not constant due to changes in solar activity in each solar cycle, and hence the level
of cosmic ray modulation varies with solar activity. In this context, we have investigated the variability and the relationship
of cosmic ray intensity with solar, interplanetary, and geophysical parameters from January 1982 through December 2008. Simultaneous
observations have been made to quantify the exact relationship between the cosmic ray intensity and those parameters during
the solar maxima and minima, respectively. It is found that the stronger the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind plasma
velocity, and solar wind plasma temperature, the weaker the cosmic ray intensity. Hence, the lowest cosmic ray intensity has
good correlations with simultaneous solar parameters, while the highest cosmic ray intensity does not. Our results show that
higher solar activity is responsible for a higher geomagnetic effect and vice versa. 相似文献
13.
Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric
parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar
cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares,
and the geomagnetic index A
p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led
us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal
mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray
data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters
in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these
parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it
possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before.
An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters
using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this
cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity
(qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time
lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric
ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic
field. 相似文献
14.
The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate
the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The
results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the
11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity. 相似文献
15.
In the present work an analysis has been made of the extreme events occurring during July 2005. Specifically, a rather intense
Forbush decrease was observed at different neutron monitors all over the world during 16 July 2005. An effort has been made
to study the effect of this unusual event on cosmic ray intensity as well as various solar and interplanetary plasma parameters.
It is noteworthy that during 11 to 18 July 2005 the solar activity ranged from low to very active. Especially low levels occurred
on 11, 15, and 17 July whereas high levels took place on 14 and 16 July 2005. The Sun is observed to be active during 11 to
18 July 2005, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity lies within 15 nT, and solar wind velocity was limited to ∼500 kms-1.
The geomagnetic activity during this period remains very quiet, the Kp index did not exceed 5, the disturbance storm time
Dst index remains ∼-70 nT and no sudden storm commencement has been detected during this period. It is noted that for the
majority of the hours, the north/south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative, and the cosmic
ray intensity increases and shows good/high correlation with Bz, as the polarity of Bz tends to shift from negative to positive
values, the intensity decreases and shows good/high anti-correlation with Bz. The cosmic ray intensity tends to decrease with
increase of interplanetary magnetic field strength (B) and shows anti-correlation for the majority of the days.
Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 255–265 (May 2008). 相似文献
16.
We study the solar-activity and solar-polarity dependence of galactic cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) on the solar and heliospheric parameters playing a significant role in solar modulation. We utilize the data for cosmic-ray intensity as measured by neutron monitors, solar activity as measured by sunspot number (SSN), interplanetary plasma/field parameters, solar-wind velocity [V] and magnetic field [B], as well as the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet [Λ], and we analyze these data for Solar Cycles 20?–?24 (1965?–?2011). We divide individual solar cycles into four phases, i.e. low, high, increasing, and decreasing solar activity. We perform regression analysis to calculate and compare the CRI-response to changes in different solar/interplanetary parameters during
- different phases of solar activity and
- similar activity phases but different polarity states.
17.
We study the hysteresis effect between the solar flare index and cosmic ray intensity for the past 37 years from January 1, 1965 to December 31, 2001 on a daily basis. We show that smoothed time series of flare index and the daily Calgary Galactic Cosmic Ray intensity values exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the studied period. The shapes of these differences vary from cycle to cycle. So we investigate the momentary time lags between the two time series for the odd and even cycles. 相似文献
18.
《New Astronomy》2016
The diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity, based on the records of two neutron monitor stations at Athens (Greece) and Oulu (Finland) for the time period 2001 to 2014, is studied. This period covers the maximum and the descending phase of the solar cycle 23, the minimum of the solar cycles 23/24 and the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24.These two stations differ in their geographic latitude and magnetic threshold rigidity. The amplitude and phase of the diurnal anisotropy vectors have been calculated on annual and monthly basis.From our analysis it is resulted that there is a different behaviour in the characteristics of the diurnal anisotropy during the different phases of the solar cycle, depended on the solar magnetic field polarity, but also during extreme events of solar activity, such as Ground Level Enhancements and cosmic ray events, such as Forbush decreases and magnetospheric events. These results may be useful to Space Weather forecasting and especially to Biomagnetic studies. 相似文献
19.
Badruddin 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2006,27(2-3):209-217
We discuss the effects of certain dynamic features of space environment in the heliosphere, the geo-magnetosphere, and the
earth’s atmosphere. In particular, transient perturbations in solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field, and energetic
charged particle (cosmic ray) fluxes near 1 AU in the heliosphere have been discussed. Transient variations in magnetic activity
in geo-magnetosphere and solar modulation effects in the heliosphere have also been studied. Emphasis is on certain features
of transient perturbations related to space weather effects. Relationships between geomagnetic storms and transient modulations
in cosmic ray intensity (Forbush decreases), especially those caused by shock-associated interplanetary disturbances, have
been studied in detail. We have analysed the cosmic ray, geomagnetic and interplanetary plasma/field data to understand the
physical mechanisms of two phenomena namely, Forbush decrease and geomagnetic storms, and to search for precursors to Forbush
decrease (and geomagnetic storms) that can be used as a signature to forecast space weather. It is shown that the use of cosmic
ray records has practical application for space weather predictions. Enhanced diurnal anisotropy and intensity deficit of
cosmic rays have been identified as precursors to Forbush decreases in cosmic ray intensity. It is found that precursor to
smaller (less than 5%) amplitude Forbush decrease due to weaker interplanetary shock is enhanced diurnal anisotropy. However,
larger amplitude (greater than 5%) Forbush decrease due to stronger interplanetary shock shows loss cone type intensity deficit
as precursor in ground based intensity record. These precursors can be used as inputs for space weather forecast. 相似文献
20.
The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of ground-based super neutron monitor stations, situated in different latitudes, have been employed to study the characteristics of the long-term variation of cosmic-ray diurnal anisotropy for a long (44-year) period (1965?–?2008). Some of these super neutron monitors are situated in low latitudes with high cutoff rigidity. Annual averages of the diurnal amplitudes and phases have been obtained for each station. It is found that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar activity cycle (11 years), whereas the diurnal phase varies with a period of 22 years (one solar magnetic cycle). The average diurnal amplitudes and phases have also been calculated by grouping the days on the basis of ascending and descending periods of each solar cycle (Cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23). Systematic and significant differences are observed in the characteristics of the diurnal variation between the descending periods of the odd and even solar cycles. The overall vector averages of the descending periods of the even solar cycles (20 and 22) show significantly smaller diurnal amplitudes compared to the vector averages of the descending periods of the odd solar cycles (21 and 23). In contrast, we find a large diurnal phase shift to earlier hours only during the descending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22), as compared to almost no shift in the diurnal phase during the descending periods of odd solar cycles. Further, the overall vector average diurnal amplitudes of the ascending period of odd and even solar cycles remain invariant from one ascending period to the other, or even between the even and odd solar cycles. However, we do find a significant diurnal phase shift to earlier hours during the ascending periods of odd solar cycles (21 and 23) in comparison to the diurnal phase in the ascending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22). 相似文献