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1.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,249(2):355-367
The 12-month running means of the conventional sunspot number Rz, the sunspot group numbers (SGN) and the frequency of occurrence of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were examined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). For the whole disc, the SGN and Rz plots were almost identical. Hence, SGN could be used as a proxy for Rz, for which latitude data are not available. SGN values were used for 5° latitude belts 0° – 5°, 5° – 10°, 10° – 15°, 15° – 20°, 20° – 25°, 25° – 30° and > 30°, separately in each hemisphere north and south. Roughly, from latitudes 25° – 30° N to 20° – 25° N, the peaks seem to have occurred later for lower latitudes, from latitudes 20° – 25° N to 15° – 20° N, the peaks are stagnant or occur slightly earlier, and then from latitudes 15° – 20° N to 0° – 5° N, the peaks seem to have occurred again later for lower latitudes. Thus, some latitudinal migration is suggested, clearly in the northern hemisphere, not very clearly in the southern hemisphere, first to the equator in 1998, stagnant or slightly poleward in 1999, and then to the equator again from 2000 onwards, the latter reminiscent of the Maunder butterfly diagrams. Similar plots for CME occurrence frequency also showed multiple peaks (two or three) in almost all latitude belts, but the peaks were almost simultaneous at all latitudes, indicating no latitudinal migration. For similar latitude belts, SGN and CME plots were dissimilar in almost all latitude belts except 10° – 20° S. The CME plots had in general more peaks than the SGN plots, and the peaks of SGN often did not match with those of CME. In the CME data, it was noticed that whereas the values declined from 2002 to 2003, there was no further decline during 2003 – 2006 as one would have expected to occur during the declining phase of sunspots, where 2007 is almost a year of sunspot minimum. An inquiry at GSFC-NASA revealed that the person who creates the preliminary list was changed in 2004 and the new person picks out more weak CMEs. Thus a subjectivity (overestimates after 2002) seems to be involved and hence, values obtained before and during 2002 are not directly comparable to values recorded after 2002, except for CMEs with widths exceeding 60°.  相似文献   

2.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,245(2):415-421
The occurrence of double peaks near the maximum of sunspot activity was first emphasized by Gnevyshev (Solar Phys. 1, 107, 1967) for the peak years of solar cycle 19 (1954 – 1964). In the present analysis, it is shown that double peaks in sunspot numbers were clearly visible in solar latitudes 10 – 30° N but almost absent in the southern latitudes, where some single peaks were observed out of phase by several months from any of the peaks in the northern latitudes. The spacing between the double peaks increased from higher to lower northern latitudes, hinting at latitudinal migration. In the next cycle 20 (1965 – 1976), which was of about half the strength of cycle 19, no clear-cut double peaks were seen, and the prominent peak in the early part of 1967 in the northern latitudes was seen a few months later in the southern latitudes. A direct relationship of Gnevyshev peaks with changes in the solar polar magnetic fields seems to be dubious. The commencements do not match.  相似文献   

3.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2007,246(2):471-485
Many methods of predictions of sunspot maximum number use data before or at the preceding sunspot minimum to correlate with the following sunspot maximum of the same cycle, which occurs a few years later. Kane and Trivedi (Solar Phys. 68, 135, 1980) found that correlations of R z(max) (the maximum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) with R z(min) (the minimum in the 12-month running means of sunspot number R z) in the solar latitude belt 20° – 40°, particularly in the southern hemisphere, exceeded 0.6 and was still higher (0.86) for the narrower belt > 30° S. Recently, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007) studied the relationship of sunspot areas at different solar latitudes and reported correlations 0.95 – 0.97 between minima and maxima of sunspot areas at low latitudes and sunspot maxima of the next cycle, and predictions could be made with an antecedence of more than 11 years. For the present study, we selected another parameter, namely, SGN, the sunspot group number (irrespective of their areas) and found that SGN(min) during a sunspot minimum year at latitudes > 30° S had a correlation +0.78±0.11 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the same cycle. Also, the SGN during a sunspot minimum year in the latitude belt (10° – 30° N) had a correlation +0.87±0.07 with the sunspot number R z(max) of the next cycle. We obtain an appropriate regression equation, from which our prediction for the coming cycle 24 is R z(max )=129.7±16.3.  相似文献   

4.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2008,248(1):177-190
From the LASCO CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) catalog, the occurrence frequencies of all CMEs (all strong and weak CMEs, irrespective of their widths) were calculated for 3-month intervals and their 12-month running means determined for cycle 23 (1996 – 2007) and were compared with those of other solar parameters. The annual values of all-CME frequency were very well correlated (+ 0.97) with sunspot numbers, but several other parameters also had similarly high correlations. Comparisons of 12-month running means indicated that the sunspot numbers were very well correlated with solar electromagnetic radiations (Lyman-α, 2800-MHz flux, coronal green line index, solar flare indices, and X-ray background); but for corpuscular radiations [proton fluxes, solar energetic particles (SEP), CMEs, interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), and stream interaction regions (SIR)] and solar open magnetic fields, the correlations were lower. A notable feature was the appearance of two peaks during 2000 – 2002, and those double peaks in different parameters matched approximately except for proton fluxes and SEP and SIR frequencies. When hemispheric intensities were considered, north – south asymmetries appeared, more in some parameters than in others. When intensities in smaller latitude belts (10°) were compared, sunspot group numbers (SGN) were found to be confined mostly to latitudes within ± 30° of the solar equator, showing two peaks in all latitude belts, and during the course of the 11-year cycle, the double peaks shifted from middle to equatorial solar latitudes, just as seen in the Maunder butterfly diagrams. In contrast, CME frequency was comparable at all latitude belts (including high, near-polar latitudes), having more than two peaks in almost all latitude belts, and the peaks were almost simultaneous in all latitude belts. Thus, the matching of SGN peaks with those of CME peaks was poor. Incidentally, the CME frequency data for all events (all widths) after 2003 are not comparable to earlier data, owing to inclusion of very weak (narrow) CMEs in later years. The frequencies are comparable with earlier data only for widths exceeding about 70°.  相似文献   

5.
Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.  相似文献   

6.
N. Lugaz 《Solar physics》2010,267(2):411-429
Using data from the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) onboard STEREO, it is possible to derive the direction of propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in addition to their speed with a variety of methods. For CMEs observed by both STEREO spacecraft, it is possible to derive their direction using simultaneous observations from the twin spacecraft and also, using observations from only one spacecraft with fitting methods. This makes it possible to test and compare different analysis techniques. In this article, we propose a new fitting method based on observations from one spacecraft, which we compare to the commonly used fitting method of Sheeley et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 104, 24739, 1999). We also compare the results from these two fitting methods with those from two stereoscopic methods, focusing on 12 CMEs observed simultaneously by the two STEREO spacecraft in 2008 and 2009. We find evidence that the fitting method of Sheeley et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 104, 24739, 1999) may result in significant errors in the determination of the CME direction when the CME propagates outside of 60°±20° from the Sun – spacecraft line. We expect our new fitting method to be better adapted to the analysis of halo or limb CMEs with respect to the observing spacecraft. We also find some evidence that direct triangulation in the HI fields-of-view should only be applied to CMEs propagating approximatively toward Earth (± 20° from the Sun – Earth line). Last, we address one of the possible sources of errors of fitting methods: the assumption of radial propagation. Using stereoscopic methods, we find that at least seven of the 12 studied CMEs had a heliospheric deflection of less than 20° as they propagated in the HI fields-of-view, which, we believe, validates this approximation.  相似文献   

7.
Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) allows observation of the inner heliospheric response to corotating solar structures and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in scintillation level and velocity. With colleagues at STELab, Nagoya University, Japan, we have developed near-real-time access of STELab IPS data for use in space-weather forecasting. We use a 3D reconstruction technique that produces perspective views from solar corotating plasma and outward-flowing solar wind as observed from Earth by iteratively fitting a kinematic solar wind model to IPS observations. This 3D modeling technique permits reconstruction of the density and velocity structure of CMEs and other interplanetary transients at a relatively coarse resolution: a solar rotational cadence and 10° latitudinal and longitudinal resolution for the corotational model and a one-day cadence and 20° latitudinal and longitudinal heliographic resolution for the time-dependent model. This technique is used to determine solar-wind pressure (“ram” pressure) at Mars. Results are compared with ram-pressure observations derived from Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer data (Crider et al. 2003, J. Geophys. Res. 108(A12), 1461) for the years 1999 through 2004. We identified 47 independent in situ pressure-pulse events above 3.5 nPa in the Mars Global Surveyor data in this time period where sufficient IPS data were available. We detail the large pressure pulse observed at Mars in association with a CME that erupted from the Sun on 27 May 2003, which was a halo CME as viewed from Earth. We also detail the response of a series of West-limb CME events and compare their response observed at Mars about 160° west of the Sun – Earth line by the Mars Global Surveyor with the response derived from the IPS 3D reconstructions.  相似文献   

8.
Yu Liu 《Solar physics》2008,249(1):75-84
Liu et al. (Astrophys. J. 628, 1056, 2005a) described one surge – coronal mass ejection (CME) event showing a close relationship between solar chromospheric surge ejection and CME that had not been noted before. In this work, large Hα surges (>72 Mm, or 100 arcsec) are studied. Eight of these were associated with CMEs. According to their distinct morphological features, Hα surges can be classified into three types: jetlike, diffuse, and closed loop. It was found that all of the jetlike surges were associated with jetlike CMEs (with angular widths ≤30 degrees); the diffuse surges were all associated with wide-angle CMEs (e.g., halo); the closed-loop surges were not associated with CMEs. The exclusive relation between Hα surges and CMEs indicates difference in magnetic field configurations. The jetlike surges and related narrow CMEs propagate along coronal fields that are originally open. The unusual transverse mass motions in the diffuse surges are suggested to be due to magnetic reconnections in the corona that produce wide-angle CMEs. For the closed-loop surges, their paths are just outlining stable closed loops close to the solar surface. Thus no CMEs are associated with them.  相似文献   

9.
The observed phase relations between the weak background solar magnetic (poloidal) field and strong magnetic field associated with sunspots (toroidal field) measured at different latitudes are presented. For measurements of the solar magnetic field (SMF) the low-resolution images obtained from Wilcox Solar Observatory are used and the sunspot magnetic field was taken from the Solar Feature Catalogues utilizing the SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms. The quasi-3D latitudinal distributions of sunspot areas and magnetic fields obtained for 30 latitudinal bands (15 in the northern hemisphere and 15 in the southern hemisphere) within fixed longitudinal strips are correlated with those of the background SMF. The sunspot areas in all latitudinal zones (averaged with a sliding one-year filter) reveal a strong positive correlation with the absolute SMF in the same zone appearing first with a zero time lag and repeating with a two- to three-year lag through the whole period of observations. The residuals of the sunspot areas averaged over one year and those over four years are also shown to have a well defined periodic structure visible in every two – three years close to one-quarter cycle with the maxima occurring at − 40° and + 40° and drifts during this period either toward the equator or the poles depending on the latitude of sunspot occurrence. This phase relation between poloidal and toroidal field throughout the whole cycle is discussed in association with both the symmetric and asymmetric components of the background SMF and relevant predictions by the solar dynamo models.  相似文献   

10.
H. Kiliç 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):155-162
The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.  相似文献   

11.
We show for the first time images of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) viewed using the Heliospheric Imager (HI) instrument aboard the NASA STEREO spacecraft. The HI instruments are wide-angle imaging systems designed to detect CMEs in the heliosphere, in particular, for the first time, observing the propagation of such events along the Sun – Earth line, that is, those directed towards Earth. At the time of writing the STEREO spacecraft are still close to the Earth and the full advantage of the HI dual-imaging has yet to be realised. However, even these early results show that despite severe technical challenges in their design and implementation, the HI instruments can successfully detect CMEs in the heliosphere, and this is an extremely important milestone for CME research. For the principal event being analysed here we demonstrate an ability to track a CME from the corona to over 40 degrees. The time – altitude history shows a constant speed of ascent over at least the first 50 solar radii and some evidence for deceleration at distances of over 20 degrees. Comparisons of associated coronagraph data and the HI images show that the basic structure of the CME remains clearly intact as it propagates from the corona into the heliosphere. Extracting the CME signal requires a consideration of the F-coronal intensity distribution, which can be identified from the HI data. Thus we present the preliminary results on this measured F-coronal intensity and compare these to the modelled F-corona of Koutchmy and Lamy (IAU Colloq. 85, 63, 1985). This analysis demonstrates that CME material some two orders of magnitude weaker than the F-corona can be detected; a specific example at 40 solar radii revealed CME intensities as low as 1.7×10−14 of the solar brightness. These observations herald a new era in CME research as we extend our capability for tracking, in particular, Earth-directed CMEs into the heliosphere.  相似文献   

12.
In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12 050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10 – 80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within ± 45° in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.68×log (flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log (CME mass)∝0.33×log (flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log (CME mass)∝0.70×log (flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ≈ 10−7 – 10−4 W m−2.  相似文献   

13.
In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30 November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35 days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240 days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of 150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys. 438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations.  相似文献   

14.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2006,233(1):107-115
This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23 and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in 1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000 was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45∘–90∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0∘–45∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001 for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough) larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot activity.  相似文献   

15.
G. Michalek 《Solar physics》2010,261(1):107-114
A set of 106 limb CMEs which are wide and could be possible halo events, when directed towards Earth, are used to check the accuracy of the asymmetric cone model. For this purpose characteristics of CMEs (widths and radial speeds) measured for the possible halo CMEs are compared with these obtained for halo CMEs using the asymmetric cone model (Michalek, Solar Phys. 237, 101, 2006). It was shown that the width and speed distributions for both datasets are very similar and with a probability of p>0.93 (using the Kolmogorov – Smirnov test) were drawn from the same distribution of events. We also determined the accurate relationship between radial (V rad) and expansion (V exp) speeds of halo CMEs. This relation for the halo CMEs is simply V rad=V exp and could be very useful for space weather application.  相似文献   

16.
In the previous study (Dabas et al. in Solar Phys. 250, 171, 2008), to predict the maximum sunspot number of the current solar cycle 24 based on the geomagnetic activity of the preceding sunspot minimum, the Ap index was used which is available from the last six to seven solar cycles. Since a longer series of the aa index is available for more than the last 10 – 12 cycles, the present study utilizes aa to validate the earlier prediction. Based on the same methodology, the disturbance index (DI), which is the 12-month moving average of the number of disturbed days (aa≥50), is computed at thirteen selected times (called variate blocks 1,2,…,13; each of them in six-month duration) during the declining portion of the ongoing sunspot cycle. Then its correlation with the maximum sunspot number of the following cycle is evaluated. As in the case of Ap, variate block 9, which occurs exactly 48 months after the current cycle maximum, gives the best correlation (R=0.96) with a minimum standard error of estimation (SEE) of ± 9. As applied to cycle 24, the aa index as precursor yields the maximum sunspot number of about 120±16 (the 90% prediction interval), which is within the 90% prediction interval of the earlier prediction (124±23 using Ap). Furthermore, the same method is applied to an expanded range of cycles 11 – 23, and once again variate block 9 gives the best correlation (R=0.95) with a minimum SEE of ± 13. The relation yields the modified maximum amplitude for cycle 24 of about 131±20, which is also close to our earlier prediction and is likely to occur at about 43±4 months after its minimum (December 2008), probably in July 2012 (± 4 months).  相似文献   

17.
We performed a detailed analysis of 27 slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) whose heights were measured in at least 30 coronagraphic images and were characterized by a high quality index (≥4). Our primary aim was to study the radial evolution of these CMEs and their properties in the range 2 – 30 solar radii. The instantaneous speeds of CMEs were calculated by using successive height – time data pairs. The obtained speed – distance profiles [v(R)] are fitted by a power law v = a(R−b) c . The power-law indices are found to be in the ranges a=30 – 386, b=1.95 – 3.92, and c=0.03 – 0.79. The power-law exponent c is found to be larger for slower and narrower CMEs. With the exception of two events that had approximately constant velocity, all events were accelerating. The majority of accelerating events shows a v(R) profile very similar to the solar-wind profile deduced by Sheeley et al. (Astrophys. J. 484, 472, 1997). This indicates that the dynamics of most slow CMEs are dominated by the solar wind drag.  相似文献   

18.
The manifestation of convection in deep layers of the Sun has been found in the dynamics of solar surface activity (Arkhypov, Antonov, and Khodachenko in Solar Phys. 270, 1, 2011). Some chromospheric phenomena could be connected with deep convection, too. We justify this hypothesis with sunspot, Ca ii, Hα, and millimeter-wave radio data. It is argued that large-scale (20 to 25 deg) bright regions in the chromosphere, surrounded by dark halos with diameters of 40° to 50°, can be manifestations of giant convection cells. The ascending and descending flows in such cells modulate the emergence of magnetic tubes generating the high-temperature regions and low-temperature halo in the chromosphere. Our estimates of the rotation rate of such features confirm their association with deep (≳ 35 Mm) layers of the solar convection zone.  相似文献   

19.
R. P. Kane 《Solar physics》2009,255(1):163-168
The number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupting from the Sun follows a trend similar to that of sunspot numbers during the rising and maximum phase of the solar cycle. In the declining phase, the CME number has large fluctuations, dissimilar to those of sunspot numbers. In several studies of solar – interplanetary and solar – terrestrial relationships, the sunspot numbers and the 2800-MHz flux (F10) are used as representative of solar activity. In the rising phase, this may be adequate, but in the declining phase, solar parameters such as CMEs may have a different behaviour. Cosmic-ray Forbush decreases may occur even when sunspot activity is low. Therefore, when studying the solar influence on the Earth, one has to consider that although geomagnetic conditions at solar maximum will be disturbed, conditions at solar minimum may not be necessarily quiet.  相似文献   

20.
J. Javaraiah 《Solar physics》2008,252(2):419-439
Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially responsible for all the above relationships. The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547, USA.  相似文献   

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