首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover.  相似文献   

2.
The preference rankings of a rural population in central British Columbia, Canada of potential environmental effects of climate change were assessed using the psychometric method of paired comparison. The survey results were used to develop an interval scale for eight hypothetical, but potential, environmental effects including major and minor impacts to water and fish, forest ecosystems, wildlife, and scenic and recreation. Interval scales were developed for the total sample as well as sub-samples made up of females, males, town residents, non-town residents, respondents with high school or less education, and respondents with at least some post-secondary education. Major impacts on water and fish were considered to be the most serious effects followed by major impacts on forest ecosystems and major impacts on wildlife. Major effects on scenic and recreation were ranked below minor effects on water and fish. Responses from the sub-samples were similar with some minor deviations. For example, females ranked major impacts on wildlife higher than males, and males ranked major impact on scenic and recreation higher than females. However, the overall rankings of females and males were highly correlated. This study showed climate change effects on environmental goods and services in terms of human preferences. A human preferences perspective (combined with biophysical assessments) is required for determining local adaptation priorities and for guiding impacts and adaptation research. The methodology and approach has potential for broader application.  相似文献   

3.
This study used a quadratic programming sector model to assess the integrated impacts of climate change on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Results from a dynamic global food trade model were used to update the Egyptian sector model and included socio-economic trends and world market prices of agricultural goods. In addition, the impacts of climate change from three bio-physical sectors – water resources, crop yields, and land resources – were used as inputs to the economic model. The climate change scenarios generally had minor impacts on aggregated economic welfare (sum of Consumer and Producer Surplus or CPS), with the largest reduction of approximately 6 percent. In some climate change scenarios, CPS slightly improved or remained unchanged. These scenarios generally benefited consumers more than producers, as world market conditions reduced the revenue generating capacity of Egyptian agricultural exporters but decreased the costs of imports. Despite increased water availability and only moderate yield declines, several climate change scenarios showed producers being negatively affected by climate change. The analysis supported the hypothesis that smaller food importing countries are at a greater risk to climate change, and impacts could have as much to do with changes in world markets as with changes in local and regional biophysical systems and shifts in the national agricultural economy.  相似文献   

4.
IPCC发布的《气候变化2014:影响、适应和脆弱性》进一步提升了国际社会对于适应气候变化和可持续发展的认识水平,主要表现在:适应气候变化的研究视角从自然生态脆弱性转向更为广泛的社会经济脆弱性及人类的响应能力;阐明了气候风险与社会发展的关系,明确了适应在气候灾害风险管理中的积极作用;提出了减少脆弱性和暴露度及增加气候恢复能力的有效适应原则;提出了适应极限的概念,指出这一概念对于适应气候变化的政策含义;提出了保障社会可持续发展的气候恢复能力路径;强调要注重适应与减缓的协同作用和综合效应,指出转型适应是应对气候变化影响的必要选择。报告认为,气候变化、影响、适应及社会经济过程不再是一个简单的单向线性关系,需要纳入统一的系统框架下予以认识和理解。  相似文献   

5.
6.
While it is generally asserted that those countries who have contributed least to anthropogenic climate change are most vulnerable to its adverse impacts some recently developed indices of vulnerability to climate change come to a different conclusion. Confirmation or rejection of this assertion is complicated by the lack of an agreed metric for measuring countries’ vulnerability to climate change and by conflicting interpretations of vulnerability. This paper presents a comprehensive semi-quantitative analysis of the disparity between countries’ responsibility for climate change, their capability to act and assist, and their vulnerability to climate change for four climate-sensitive sectors based on a broad range of disaggregated vulnerability indicators. This analysis finds a double inequity between responsibility and capability on the one hand and the vulnerability of food security, human health, and coastal populations on the other. This double inequity is robust across alternative indicator choices and interpretations of vulnerability. The main cause for the higher vulnerability of poor nations who have generally contributed little to climate change is their lower adaptive capacity. In addition, the biophysical sensitivity and socio-economic exposure of poor nations to climate impacts on food security and human health generally exceeds that of wealthier nations. No definite statement can be made on the inequity associated with climate impacts on water supply due to large uncertainties about future changes in regional water availability and to conflicting indicators of current water scarcity. The robust double inequity between responsibility and vulnerability for most climate-sensitive sectors strengthens the moral case for financial and technical assistance from those countries most responsible for climate change to those countries most vulnerable to its adverse impacts. However, the complex and geographically heterogeneous patterns of vulnerability factors for different climate-sensitive sectors suggest that the allocation of international adaptation funds to developing countries should be guided by sector-specific or hazard-specific criteria despite repeated requests from participants in international climate negotiations to develop a generic index of countries’ vulnerability to climate change.  相似文献   

7.
气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择。梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序。通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段。该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展。  相似文献   

8.
Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change.  相似文献   

9.
Human adaptation to climate change is comprised of “adjustments” in response to (or anticipation of) climatic impacts. Adaptation does not necessarily imply favorable or equitable change, nor does it automatically imply sustainable use of ecosystems. “Sustainable adaptation” in this case implies strategic, collective action to respond to or anticipate harmful climate change to reduce disruption to key resource flows and adverse effects on general well-being. This research examined social-ecological system responses to recent warming trends in the remote northwest region of Interior Alaska using a unique vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment (VA) approach that integrated indigenous observations and understanding of climate (IC) with western social and natural sciences. The study found that Alaska Native communities that were historically highly mobile and flexible across the landscape for subsistence hunting are increasingly restricted by the institutional rigidity of the regulatory system for wildlife and subsistence management. This has resulted in negative impacts to game harvest access and success threatening food security and community well-being. This suggests that policies limiting the ability of natural resource-dependent societies to be flexible, diversify, or innovate can threaten livelihoods and exacerbate vulnerability. Nevertheless, opportunities for sustainable adaptation exist where wildlife management is adaptive and includes an understanding of and response to climate variability and slow-onset climate change with the human dimensions of subsistence hunting for more effective “in-season” management.  相似文献   

10.
We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change assimulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades ofthe 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of cropsand trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding thatnon-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement ofcrops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climateswe considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use,irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international tradeassumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for theU.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. Weexamined the effects of potential changes in El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climateconditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequencyincreases that could not be completely offset even if the events could beperfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in meantemperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions ofclimate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects onnutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of theEdward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to theSan Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggestenvironmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices tolimit nutrient run-off would need to be tightened if current environmentalgoals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined  相似文献   

11.
气候变化对石羊河流域重点治理规划的影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
 根据IPCC全球气候变化情景,分析了石羊河流域未来可能气候变化趋势及其对流域河川径流量的影响。利用宏观经济水资源模型,研究了不同径流变化情景对石羊河流域治理规划效果的影响。结果表明:若石羊河流域未来径流量减少15%,对流域现状发展模式和治理模式经济影响将分别为29.8%和7.2%。石羊河综合治理可提高流域应对气候变化风险的能力,减小气候变化对流域社会经济的影响。  相似文献   

12.
Climate variability has been evident on the Mongolian plateau in recent decades. Livelihood adaptation to climate variability is important for local sustainable development. This paper applies an analytical framework focused on adaptation, institutions, and livelihoods to study climate adaptation in the Mongolian grasslands. A household survey was designed and implemented in each of three broad vegetation types in Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. The analytical results show that livelihood adaptation strategies of herders vary greatly across the border between Mongolia and Inner Mongolia, China. Local institutions played important roles in shaping and facilitating livelihood adaptation strategies of herders. Mobility and communal pooling were the two key categories of adaptation strategies in Mongolia, and they were shaped and facilitated by local communal institutions. Storage, livelihood diversification, and market exchange were the three key categories of adaptation strategies in Inner Mongolia, and they were mainly shaped and facilitated by local government and market institutions. Local institutions enhanced but also at times undermined adaptive capacity of herder communities in the two countries, but in different ways. Sedentary grazing has increased livelihood vulnerability of herders to climate variability and change. With grazing sedentarization, the purchase and storage of forage has become an important strategy of herders to adapt to the highly variable climate. The multilevel statistical models of forage purchasing behaviors show that the strategies of livestock management, household financial capital, environmental (i.e., precipitation and vegetation growth) variability, and the status of pasture degradation were the major determinants of this adaptation strategy.  相似文献   

13.
Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are:
  • Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century.
  • Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development.
  • According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II.
  • At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests.
  • The most realistic experiments to date – free air experiments in an irrigated environment – indicate that C3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes.
  • Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions.
  • The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century.
  • Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2–3 °C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries.
  • Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes.
  • Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected.
  • The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change.
  • Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation.
  • Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries.
  • Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers.
  • Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 °C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries.
  相似文献   

14.
根据IPCC全球气候变化情景,分析了石羊河流域未来可能气候变化趋势及其对流域河川径流量的影响。利用宏观经济水资源模型,研究了不同径流变化情景对石羊河流域治理规划效果的影响。结果表明:若石羊河流域未来径流量减少15%,对流域现状发展模式和治理模式经济影响将分别为29.8%和7.2%。石羊河综合治理可提高流域应对气候变化风险的能力,减小气候变化对流域社会经济的影响。  相似文献   

15.
回顾了《巴厘行动计划》以来形成的与适应气候变化议题相关的国际决议及谈判进展,分析了这些决议对推动发展中国家适应气候变化进程的可能作用和面临的障碍,综述了发展中国家和发达国家对“2015气候协议”的利益诉求和建议。作者认为:《巴厘行动计划》以来,《联合国气候变化框架公约》下适应气候变化方面的谈判取得了较明显的进展,建立了适应委员会、国家适应计划进程和应对损失与危害的国际机制等;资金、技术研发、推广和使用、政策法规、机构设置与能力、信息等是提高发展中国家适应气候变化的限制因素;资金、技术转让和能力建设仍是“2015气候协议”谈判的重点和难点。针对非洲集团和小岛屿国家联盟全球适应目标和应对气候变化造成的损失与危害的补偿的提议,作者建议加强科学研究,开发评估方法和工具,探讨气候自然变率和人类活动导致的气候变化影响的归因;同时建议中国进一步加强适应气候变化的南南合作。  相似文献   

16.
正确认识气候变化对流域森林植被和水文的影响对于林业经营管理与流域生态修复具有重要意义。为了揭示气候与植被覆盖变化对西南亚高山区流域碳水循环过程的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID(Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4, coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics model)与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL(Topographic Index Model)的耦合模型(以下记为SSiB4T/TRIFFID)模拟了不同气候情景下西南亚高山区的梭磨河流域植被演替和碳水循环过程。结果表明,所有试验流域植被经历了从C3到苔原灌木最后到森林的变化;控制试验流域蒸散在流域植被主要为苔原灌木时达到最大而径流深最小;增温5 ℃并且增雨40%试验[记为T+5, (1+40%) P试验]流域蒸散在流域为森林覆盖时达到最大而径流深最小。随着温度增加,森林蒸腾、冠层截留蒸发和蒸散的增加幅度明显大于草和苔原灌木,导致森林从控制试验的增加径流量变为减小径流量。从控制试验到T+5, (1+40%) P试验,温度增加使森林净初级生产力有所增加,但对草和苔原灌木的净初级生产力影响很小;植被水分利用效率随温度增加明显减小。西南山区随着海拔高度降低(温度升高),森林从增加径流量转变为减少径流量,植被水分利用效率也相应明显减小。西南山区气候的垂直地带性对森林—径流关系和水分利用效率的空间变化有着重要的影响。  相似文献   

17.
解读政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)粮食系统的影响与适应,对科学认识国际气候变化对农业影响学科前沿动态具有重要意义。最新发布的IPCC AR6在深化阐述粮食生产能力、种植布局、病虫害影响的基础上,高度确信人类活动导致的气候变暖对粮食系统产生了负面影响,论述了粮食运输及消费中的气候风险,解析了粮食生产-存储-运输-消费的全链条气候变化影响,延展了影响评估归因内容并丰富了农业环境影响等相关科学认识。对于粮食系统的适应能力,强调适应及减缓协同发展的气候恢复力发展路径,适应评估从适应能力、适应方式等理论逐步转向适应实施行动和成效评估,并注重适应行动的区域特异性和有效性。本次评估强调了气候变化对作物影响的检测和归因、关注了气候和农业环境变化复合影响、倡导基于生态系统的适应方案和技术,评估了现有适应技术的可行性和成效。报告内容对中国强化农业影响评估能力及把握国际学科动态具有参考价值。  相似文献   

18.
甘肃省河西内陆河径流量对河西地区春小麦产量的影响   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2  
利用甘肃省河西地区3条主要内陆河昌马河、黑河、西营河流量以及酒泉、张掖、武威3个地区的春小麦产量资料,分析了甘肃省河西地区内陆河流量对河西地区春小麦产量的影响。结果表明:河西的粮食产量除了受灌溉水利发展、农业技术和优良品种等生产力水平提高,呈现波动上升趋势外,还受到灌溉水源的影响。春季径流的差异会导致春小麦单产的明显年际波动。年径流短期波动对产量影响较小,但径流长期波动的影响要大于短期波动。特别是春季径流的长期趋势决定着调节水库的蓄水量多寡,这在一定程度上反映出目前的农业生产仍受气候变化的影响。  相似文献   

19.
Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

20.
We identify and examine how policy intervention can help Canada's Inuit population adapt to climate change. The policy responses are based on an understanding of the determinants of vulnerability identified in research conducted with 15 Inuit communities. A consistent approach was used in each case study where vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure-sensitivity to climatic risks and adaptive capacity to deal with those risks. This conceptualization focuses on the biophysical and human determinants of vulnerability and how they are influenced by processes and conditions operating at multiple spatial-temporal scales. Case studies involved close collaboration with community members and policy makers to identify conditions to which each community is currently vulnerable, characterize the factors that shape vulnerability and how they have changed over time, identify opportunities for adaptation policy, and examine how adaptation can be mainstreamed. Fieldwork, conducted between 2006 and 2009, included 443 semi-structured interviews, 20 focus groups/community workshops, and 65 interviews with policy makers at local, regional, and national levels. Synthesizing findings consistent across the case studies we document significant vulnerabilities, a function of socio-economic stresses and change, continuing and pervasive inequality, and magnitude of climate change. Nevertheless, adaptations are available, feasible, and Inuit have considerable adaptive capacity. Realizing this adaptive capacity and overcoming adaptation barriers requires policy intervention to: (i) support the teaching and transmission of environmental knowledge and land skills, (ii) enhance and review emergency management capability, (iii) ensure the flexibility of resource management regimes, (iv) provide economic support to facilitate adaptation for groups with limited household income, (v) increase research effort to identify short and long term risk factors and adaptive response options, (vi) protect key infrastructure, and (vii) promote awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation among policy makers.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号