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1.
以中国钢铁行业为研究对象,对典型行业节能减排措施开展协同控制效应评估分析,试图为制定行业局地大气污染物与温室气体协同控制行动方案和规划提供依据.首先采用排放因子法计算各项措施对各类局地大气污染物和各类温室气体的减排量,并归一化为综合大气污染物协同减排量(ICER),进而采用协同控制效应坐标系、协同控制交叉弹性、单位污染...  相似文献   

2.
The temperature drop T between the ocean surface and the 5-cm depth was recorded during GATE, Phase III. With measured values of the total heat flux Q and an assumption about the thickness of the viscous boundary layer of the ocean, the wind-speed dependence of the factor of proportionality between T and Q is determined. This factor depends on the deviations of the thickness of the conductive layer from the thickness of the viscous layer and possibly partially on the wind stress. A further assumption about the thickness of the conductive layer leads to a wind-speed dependence of the ratio between total wind stress and its wave supporting part of it. This ratio increases from a value 1.5 at 1 m s–1 to 9 at 10 m s–1, which is in agreement with existing estimates.  相似文献   

3.
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other infrared absorbing gases are widely proposed as a mechanism for a global surface warming over the next several decades. Various methods have been used to anticipate the regional climatic changes which might result. In earlier papers Pittock has concluded that for Australia an increase in the extent of the summer rainfall regime is likely, with a decrease in winter rainfall. This is similar to a change which took place over much of Australia in the 1940's.In this paper a climate scenario, roughly corresponding to the climate which might be expected to occur by about the middle of the twenty-first century, has been used as the input into the Miami Model of net primary productivity due to Lieth. Results show that about half of Australia might experience productivity increases in excess of 20%. A small area in the extreme south-west of Australia shows a small decrease in productivity.The direct response of plants to higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, and many other possible effects such as changes in the incidence of plant diseases, pests, and soil erosion have not been assessed.Whether or not increasing carbon dioxide will lead to further climatic change in the next few decades, the results show that Australian primary productivity is quite sensitive to climatic variations within the range found in the historical records.  相似文献   

4.
开展交通领域大气污染物与温室气体协同减排研究对于实现能源、环境和气候变化综合管理具有重要意义.文中以我国交通部门污染物与温室气体协同治理为切入点,开展道路、铁路、水运、航空和管道运输等各子部门未来需求预测,并运用长期能源可替代规划系统模型(LEAP),通过构建基准情景、污染减排情景、绿色低碳情景和强化低碳情景,模拟分析...  相似文献   

5.
A dynamical model for the late-Quaternary global variations of 18O, mean ocean surface tempeature , ice mass I, deep ocean temperature , and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration , is constructed. This model consists of two diagnostic equations (for 18O and ), and three prognostic equations (for I, , and ) of a form studied extensively in previous articles. The carbon dioxide equation includes forcing by a representation of the Milankovitch earth-orbital radiation effects, and contains a basic instability that drives a free oscillation of period near 100,000 years. The system is constrained to conserve mass and energy, contain physically plausible feedbacks including a system time constant no greater than 10.000 years, and be robust (i. e., structurally stable in the presence of expected noise levels and uncertainties in values of coefficients). Within the limits of these constraints, coefficients are chosen such that (i) the solution gives a good fit to the observed SPECMAP 18O variations, and (ii) the ice mass variations are qualitatively similar to the 18O variations. The predicted long term variations of sea surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide are in reasonably good agreement with the limited observational evidence available for these quantities, while the predicted variations of deep ocean temperature remain to be verified when paleoclimatic estimates of this quantity become available. The relative contributions of ice mass changes and surface water temperature changes to the variations of 18O at any time are given by the model.  相似文献   

6.
In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an ultimate objective is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An ultimate objective level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis.  相似文献   

7.
The emission targets adopted in the Kyoto Protocol1 far exceed thelikely level of emissions from Russia and Ukraine. These countries could selltheir surplus if the Protocol is followedand industrialized countries establish an international emission tradingsystem. Critics have condemned the potentialsale and dubbed the surplus hot air because it does not represent anyreduction in emissions below the level thatwould have occurred anyway. Using the most recent, comprehensive regionalscenarios2 for the emissions of carbon dioxide from the energysystem, we estimate that during the Protocol's2008–2012 budget period the surplus will range from 9 MtC (milliontons of carbon) to 900 MtC for Russia andfrom 3 MtC to 200 MtC for Ukraine. Even scenarios with high economic growthand carbon-intensive technologies donot exhaust the surplus before the budget period. In the central (middlecourse) scenario, the total carbon surplusexceeds 1000 MtC and is worth 22 to 170 billion U.S. dollars (4 to 34 billionU.S. dollars per year). This flow ofrevenues, which could exceed Russian earnings from natural gas exports($10 billion in 19973), is comparable with the projectedtotal investmentsof the Russian energy system for 2008–2012. If directed towardslow-carbon infrastructure investments (e.g., gaspipelines), surplus transfers could reinforce and partially lock-indecarbonization of the world energy system.  相似文献   

8.
This paper describes the similarity between atmospheric fluctuations of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature using data which cover a wide range of instability (0.02 < < 10). The is the Monin-Obukhov stability parameter including the humidity effect.The spectral analysis shows that the coherency between fluctuations of carbon dioxide and water vapor or temperature is very close to unity, and the phase difference is basically out of phase for whole frequency ranges analyzed. The stability dependence of the normalized standard deviation of carbon dioxide is very similar to those of water vapor and temperature. The normalized standard deviation is about 2.5 under near neutral conditions, and it decreases with increasing instability following the -1/3; power law as (-)-1/3. The skewness factors of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature show a systematic departure with increasing instabilities for 0.02 < s- < 1, and level off at high instabilities for 1 < -\s < 10. The stability dependence of the flatness factors is not so clear as that noted in the standrard deviation and skewness factors. Dissipation rates of carbon dioxide, water vapor and temperature variance are well related to the spectral peak wavelength. This seems to be real since the local production and local dissipation rates are the main terms, almost balancing one another in the variance budget equations for scalar entities.  相似文献   

9.
Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global climatic changes over the next decades. Means of evaluating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being sought. In this study an existing simulation model of a tropical savanna woodland grazing system was adapted to account for greenhouse gas emissions. This approach may be able to be used in identifying ways to assess and limit emissions from other rangeland, agricultural and natural ecosystems.GRASSMAN, an agricultural decision-support model, was modified to include sources, sinks and storages of greenhouse gases in the tropical and sub-tropical savanna woodlands of northern Australia. The modified model was then used to predict the changes in emissions and productivity resulting from changes in stock and burning management in a hypothetical grazing system in tropical northeastern Queensland. The sensitivity of these results to different Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and emission definitions was then tested.Management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the tropical grazing system investigated were highly sensitive to the GWPs used, and to the emission definition adopted. A recommendation to reduce emissions by changing burning management would be toreduce fire frequency if both direct and indirect GWPs of CO2, CH4, N2O, CO and NO are used in evaluating emissions, but toincrease fire frequency if only direct GWPs of CO2, CH4 and N2O are used. The ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from these systems by reducing stocking rates was also sensitive to the GWPs used. In heavily grazed systems, the relatively small reductions in stocking rate needed to reduce emissions significantly should also reduce the degradation of soils and vegetation, thereby improving the sustainability of these enterprises.The simulation studies indicate that it is possible to alter management to maximise beef cattle production per unit greenhouse gases or per unit methane emitted, but that this is also dependent upon the emission definition used. High ratios of liveweight gain per unit net greenhouse gas emission were found in a broadly defined band covering the entire range of stocking rates likely to be used. In contrast, high values of liveweight gain per unit anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission were found only at very low stocking rates that are unlikely to be economically viable.These results suggest that policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems should be evaluated cautiously until the GWPs have been further developed and the implications of emission definitions more rigorously determined.  相似文献   

10.
Global Warming Potentials: 1. Climatic Implications of Emissions Reductions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to calculate equivalent carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the climate change context is examined. We find that GWPs are accurate only for short time horizons. Over long time horizons their use implicitly leads to tradeoffs between near-term and long-term climate change. For one of the most policy-relevant cases, comparing reductions in methane and carbon dioxide, the long-term effect on climate of reducing methane emissions is relatively small, at variance with the common perception based on published GWP values.  相似文献   

11.
The choice of stabilization target for CO2 concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system; the forcings that might arise from non-CO2 gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO2 concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO2 gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.  相似文献   

12.
In this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO2 mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO2 emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.

Key policy insights

  • The policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO2 emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO2 emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.

  • Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.

  • Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.

  相似文献   

13.
《Climate Policy》2001,1(3):309-326
Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity — carbon emissions per unit of GDP — has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK’s Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government’s target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience.  相似文献   

14.
During 1987 and 1988 in Australia there have been two national meetings on the greenhouse effect and a campaign designed to increase public awareness. A study of the backgrounds, level of comprehension and attitudes of attendees at two state Greenhouse-88 meetings has been undertaken by means of a questionnaire survey and a set of personal interviews. Two crucial caveats pertain: (1) some of the questions reflect the prejudices of the author who is an atmospheric scientist and much of the interpretation is similarly tainted and (2) the respondents comprise a small, self-selected and probably highly motivated group. All the ensuing results should be viewed in the context of these caveats.Over 97% of the respondents believe that action should be taken now to alleviate or mitigate the effects of increased greenhouse gases. Despite the fact that the majority of the 321 respondents are professional people (73%) and that over 53% have tertiary level educational qualifications, there was a failure to grasp some fundamental issues. For example, only 120 (37%) correctly recognized that N2 is not a greenhouse agent whilst also agreeing that CO2, CH4 and CFCs are greenhouse agents. On the other hand, the respondents generally demanded a relatively low level of confidence (50% to 70% certainty) about the greenhouse issue from scientists before action is taken. Sixty-four percent believe that life will be worse for them and/or their children in Australia in Greenhouse 2025 with the youngest age range being the second most pessimistic group about the future.Relatively little interest was shown in the possibility of obtaining more information on topics that interest climatic scientists such as the validity of measured temperature trends and inadequacies/errors in climate models but more information was desired on the social and economic implication and, interestingly, on the scientific background to the issues. Overall, teachers are perceived as trying to increase understanding; whereas politicians, multinational corporations, the media and some extreme environmentalists are perceived as often attempting to deceive intentionally. Scientists are seen as neither especially malevolent nor benign. A possible conclusion which might be drawn is that by attempting to simplify issues for public debate, scientists may significantly reduce, or even remove entirely, any chance of re-association of connected issues by members of the public. Perhaps more importantly, scientists need to recognize and learn to use the knowledge that the public may have the right views for the wrong reasons.  相似文献   

15.
Atmospheric samples from savanna burnings were collected in the Ivory Coast during two campaigns in January 1989 and January 1991. About 30 nonmethane hydrocarbons from C2 to C6, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and methane were measured from the background and also at various distances from the burning. Concentrations in the fire plume reached ppmv levels for C2-C4 hydrocarbons, and 5300, 500 and 93 ppmv for CO2, CO and CH4 respectively. The excess in the mixing ratios of these gases above their background level is used to derive emission factors relative to CO and CO2. For the samples collected immediately in the fire plume, a differentiation between high and low combustion efficiency conditions is made by considering the CO/CO2 ratio. Ethene (C2H4), acetylene (C2H2), ethane (C2H6) and propene (C3H6) are the major NMHC produced in the flaming stage, whereas a different pattern with an increasing contribution of alkanes is observed in samples typical of post flaming processes. A strong correlation between methane and carbon monoxide suggests that these compounds are produced during the same stage of the combustion. In samples collected at a distance from the fire and integrated over a period of 30 minutes, the composition is very similar to that of flaming. NMHC/CO2 is of the order of 0.7%, CH4/CO2 of the order of 0.4% and CO/CO2 of the order of 6.3%. From this study, a global production by African savanna fires is derived: 65 Tg of CO-C, 4.2 Tg of CH4-C and 6.7 Tg of NMHC-C. Whereas acetylene can be used as a conservative tracer of the fire plumes, only ethene, propene and butenes can be considered in terms of their direct photochemical impact.  相似文献   

16.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(3):309-326
Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions from UK energy use have fallen by more than 20% over the last 30 years, and carbon intensity—carbon emissions per unit of GDP—has halved. These reductions have been achieved by a combination of decarbonisation of the energy system and substantial improvements in energy efficiency. Use of natural gas in power generation has been a big factor in recent years, but energy efficiency improvements in households and particularly industry have been more important over a longer period. Government policies designed primarily to address climate change have not been important contributors, until recently.

Future reductions in emissions will require more proactive policies. However, they are possible without any economic difficulties, notably by adopting cost-effective energy efficiency measures, using new renewable energy sources and reducing dependence on private cars. These policies will improve economic efficiency. The new UK Climate Change Programme includes policies that combine regulation, investment, fiscal measures and other economic instruments. By working with the grain of other social, environmental and economic policies, they can achieve far more than a carbon tax alone, set at any politically acceptable level. Modelling the costs of emission reductions using a carbon tax as the only instrument would not only massively over-estimate costs, it would bear little resemblance to real world politics.

The paper demonstrates that a more diverse set of policy instruments is likely to be an effective and politically acceptable approach in a mature industrial economy. It is concluded that the UK's Kyoto target of a 12.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is not challenging. The UK Government's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 20% between 1990 and 2010 is also achievable. By 2010 per capita emissions from the UK will be well below 2.5 tC per year. Claims that some countries, notably the USA, could not reduce per capita emissions below 6 tC per year seem inconsistent with this experience.  相似文献   

17.
The development of an airborne instrument for the in-situ measurement of carbon monoxide is described. The technique is resonance-fluorescence of the (A 1 X 1) transition of CO in the VUV. The instrument achieves a detection limit of 1 ppb for an interaction time of 10 s from ground level up to an altitude of 34 km. Interferences from other stratospheric trace gases are negligible.  相似文献   

18.
As global greenhouse warming continues to intensify, it is likely that demands to employ technologies of climate engineering will become increasingly insistent. This paper addresses the possibility of canceling the radiative effects of the increasing greenhouse gases through solar reflectors. Two promising approaches, according to COSEPUP (1992), are the employment of aerosols in the stratosphere, directly as reflectors, or in the troposphere, for the seeding of clouds to increase cloud amounts and brightness. Besides technological and economic feasibility, such schemes could be relatively reversible, and describing their impact may be within the reach of future scientific study.The climate system is not yet sufficiently understood for such actions to be warranted. However, there is considerable potential for an increased understanding of what such actions might do through the study of the role of similar aerosols already added to the climate system. In particular, the most intense volcanoes (e.g. Pinatubo) supply the stratosphere with enough aerosol over a period of a year or two to cancel out greenhouse warming from a resulting doubling of carbon dioxide. Furthermore, the addition of sulfate aerosols to the troposphere from the burning of fossil fuel may already be canceling out globally up to half of the greenhouse-gas warming. These comparisons suggest that at least 10 times as much sulfate aerosol would be needed in the troposphere as would be needed in the stratosphere for a comparable climatic effect. A better understanding of the role of the already-present aerosols is a prerequisite for further progress in the use of aerosols for climate engineering. The links between the horizontal and vertical distribution of radiative sources and sinks and various atmospheric feedback processes, especially those related to the hydrological cycle and the consequent global and regional responses, are also needed.  相似文献   

19.
Summary A study of the dependence features of the relative optical mass functions for air, water vapour, ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the apparent solar zenith angle was performed by calculating these optical parameters by means of the well-known computer code LOWTRAN 7 at several values of and for nine atmospheric models characterized by different latitudes and seasons. Moreover, other investigations were performed on the dependence features of (i) the relative optical air mass on the thermal characteristics of the low troposphere, (ii) the relative optical water vapour mass on the vertical distribution characteristics of absolute humidity in the troposphere, and (iii) the relative optical mass function for ozone and nitrogen dioxide on the shape characteristics of the vertical profiles of the two gaseous concentrations and the concentration peak altitudes. The results are compared with the values given by the two simple formulas proposed by Kasten (1966) for air and water vapour and the formulas defined by Young (1969) and Staehelin et al. (1995) for ozone and nitrogen dioxide. From this comparison, a wide set of correction factors were obtained which can be conveniently used in the analysis of multispectral sun-radiometric measurements for calculating, with a very high precision, the values of the four optical mass functions at all the angles in the 0° to 87° range, corresponding to the various latitudinal and seasonal conditions described by the nine atmospheric models.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

20.
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), perfluoromethane (CF4) and perfluoroethane (C2F6) are strong greenhouse gases with long (>1000 year) atmospheric residence times. We derive emission factors for the major anthropogenic sources and project future emissions for 5 regions and the world. Although firms in many industrialized countries are already limiting emissions, without further policy intervention global emissions will rise 150% (CF4 and C2F6) and 210% (SF6) between 1990 and 2050; radiative forcing will increase 0.026 W m-2. Full application of available low-cost and costless policies in industrialized nations would cut that radiative forcing by one-quarter. Increased forcing due to these gases is small (<2%) relative to other gases but permanent on the timescale of human civilization. We also quantify plausible manipulations to governmental data that will be used to determine compliance with the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which includes commitments for industrialized countries to regulate these and other greenhouse gases. More complete and transparent data are urgently needed. West European nations, for example, can cut their emissions of these gases by half by 2010 simply by manipulating emission factors within the current bounds of uncertainty.  相似文献   

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