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1.
An Mb = 5.1 earthquake occurred on February, 29, 1980, in the Western Pyrenees near Arudy (France). The telemetred network of the I.P.G.P., operating in this area since 1978, allowed a good localization of this earthquake (43°4.21′N, 0°24.59′W, depth 4km). During the two years preceding this earthquake the seismic activity exhibited a gradual decrease. A foreshock of magnitude 1.6 was recorded three hours before the main shock.A temporary network set up in the epicentral area a few days after the main shock permitted a precise study of the aftershock sequence. Fifty fault-plane solutions for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1.5-4 were obtained. A complex pattern of faulting was revealed, with both strike-slip and normal faulting. However, a regional tectonic stress tensor can be proposed from a detailed investigation of the aftershock sequence. This stress tensor is in agreement with previous results in this area.  相似文献   

2.
Occurrence of small (3 ML < 4) earthquakes on two 10-km segments of the Calaveras fault between Calaveras and Anderson reservoirs follows a simple linear pattern of elastic strain accumulation and release. The centers of these independent patches of earthquake activity are 20 km apart. Each region is characterized by a constant rate of seismic slip as computed from earthquake magnitudes, and is assumed to be an isolated locked patch on a creeping fault surface. By calculating seismic slip rates and the amount of seismic slip since the time of the last significant (M 3) earthquake, it is possible to estimate the most likely date of the next (M - 3) event on each patch. The larger the last significant event, the longer the time until the next one. The recurrence time also appears to be increased according to the moment of smaller (2 < ML < 3) events in the interim. The anticipated times of future larger events on each patch, on the basis of preliminary location data through May 1977 and estimates of interim activity, are tabulated below with standard errors. The occurrence time for the southern zone is based on eight recurrent events since 1969, the northern zone on only three. The 95% confidence limits can be estimated as twice the standard error of the projected least-squares line. Events of M 3 should not occur in the specified zones at times outside these limits. The central region between the two zones was the locus of two events (M = 3.6, 3.3) on July 3, 1977. These events occurred prior to a window based on the three point, post-1969 slip-time line for the central region.
LatitudeLongitudeDepthMag.Target dateStandard error (days)
37°17′± 2′N121°39′±2′W5.0 ±2 km3.0–4.07-22-7722.3
37°26′± 2′N121°47′±2′W6.0 ± 2 km3.0–4.09-02-778.0
Full-size table
  相似文献   

3.
Beginning with the Swabian Jura earthquake in 1911 the seismic activity in Central Europe is concentrated to this area. A comparison with other events of the same epicentral region shows that the largest earthquake in Germany has the character of a left-lateral horizontal strike slip striking N — NNE. The focal parameters can be assumed within the following intervalls: Seismic moment Mo = 1…8·1017 Nm; focal area Fo = 18…53 km2; average dislocation do = 20…53 cm and stress drop Δpo = 13…19 bar.  相似文献   

4.
The 14 November 2001 Kunlun, China, earthquake with a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 occurred along the Kusai Lake–Kunlun Pass fault of the Kunlun fault system. We document the spatial distribution and geometry of surface rupture zone produced by this earthquake, based on high-resolution satellite (Landsat ETM, ASTER, SPOT and IKONOS) images combined with field measurements. Our results show that the surface rupture zone can be divided into five segments according to the geometry of surface rupture, including the Sun Lake, Buka Daban–Hongshui River, Kusai Lake, Hubei Peak and Kunlun Pass segments from west to east. These segments, each 55 to 130 km long, are separated by step-overs. The Sun Lake segment extends about 65 km with a strike of N45° 75°W (between 90°05′E 90°50′E) along the previously unrecognized West Sun Lake fault. A gap of about 30 km long exists between the Sun Lake and Buka Daban Peak where no obvious surface ruptures can be observed either from the satellite images or field observations. The Buka Daban–Hongshui River, Kusai Lake, Hubei Peak and Kunlun Pass segments run about 365 km striking N75° 85°W along the southern slope of the Kunlun Mountains (between 91°07′E 94°58′E). This segmentation of the surface rupture is well correlated with the pattern of slip distribution measured in the field. Detailed mapping suggest that these five first-order segments can be further separated into over 20 second-order segments with a length of 10–30 km, linked by smaller scale step-overs or bends.Our result also shows that the total coseismic surface rupture length produced by the 2001 Kunlun earthquake is about 430 km (excluding the 30-km-long gap), which is the longest coseismic surface rupture for an intracontinental earthquake ever recorded.Finally, we suggest a multiple bilateral rupture propagation model that shows the rupture process of the 2001 Mw 7.8 earthquake is complex. It consists of westward and eastward rupture propagations and interaction of these bilateral rupture processes.  相似文献   

5.
In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of ML 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  ML < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 1012–5.04 × 1015 Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.  相似文献   

6.
Focal mechanisms for three recent earthquakes in Finland are determined using P-wave polarities together with SV/P and SH/P phase amplitude ratios. The events occurred on May 11, 2000 in Toivakka, Central Finland (ML=2.4), on September 15, 2000 in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland (ML=3.5), and on May 2, 2001 in Kolari, western Finnish Lapland (ML=2.9).In order to obtain reliable estimates of the source parameters, one-dimensional crust and upper mantle velocity models are derived for the epicenter areas from deep-seismic sounding results. The starting models are modified by one-dimensional ray tracing using the earthquake observations. The events are relocated by employing P- and S-phase arrival times from the nearest seismic stations and the final velocity models. Synthetic waveforms, calculated with the reflectivity method, are used to further constrain and verify the source and structural parameters.The Toivakka earthquake indicates thrust- or reverse-faulting mechanism at a depth of 5 km. After comparison with aeromagnetic and topographic data we suggest the eastward dipping nodal plane (358°/42°) was the fault plane. The best-fitting fault plane solution of the Kolari earthquake suggests pure thrust-faulting at a depth of 5 km. The nodal plane striking 035°/30° correlates well with surface observations of the postglacial, possibly listric fault systems in the source area. The Kuusamo earthquake (focal depth 14 km) has a normal-faulting mechanism with the nodal planes trending 133°/47° or 284°/47°. Preference is given to the SW-dipping nodal plane, as it seems to coincide with topographic and magnetic lineament directions that have been active after the last ice age.The three earthquakes have occurred in old Precambrian faults and shear zones, which have been reactivated. The reactivated faults are favourably oriented in the local stress field.  相似文献   

7.
A large earthquake of magnitude MW = 6.3 occurred on 14 August 2003 NW of the Lefkada Island, which is situated at the Ionian Sea (western Greece). The source parameters of this event are determined using body-wave modeling. The focal depth was found equal to 9 km, the constrained focal mechanism revealed dextral strike–slip motion (φ = 15°, Δ = 80° and λ = 170°), the duration of the source time function was 8 s and the seismic moment 2.9 × 1025 dyn cm. The earthquake occurred close to the northern end of the Kefallinia transform fault, where the 1994 moderate event and its aftershock sequence were also located. The epicentral distribution of the 2003 aftershock sequence revealed the existence of two clusters. The first one is located close to the epicentral area of the mainshock, while the second southern, close to the northwestern coast of the Kefallinia Island. A gap of seismicity is observed between the two clusters. The length of the activated zone is approximately 60 km. The analysis of data revealed that the northern cluster is directly related to the mainshock, while the southern one was triggered by stress transfer caused by the main event.  相似文献   

8.
Following a large-sized Bhuj earthquake (M s = 7.6) of January 26th, 2001, a small aperture 4-station temporary local network was deployed, in the epicentral area, for a period of about three weeks and resulted in the recording of more than 1800 aftershocks (-0.07 ≤M L <5.0). Preliminary locations of epicenters of 297 aftershocks (2.0 ≤M L <5.0) have brought out a dense cluster of aftershock activity, the center of which falls 20 km NW of Bhachau. Epicentral locations of after-shocks encompass a surface area of about 50 × 40 km2 that seems to indicate the surface projection of the rupture area associated with the earthquake. The distribution of aftershock activity above magnitude 3, shows that aftershocks are nonuniformly distributed and are aligned in the north, northwest and northeast directions. The epicenter of the mainshock falls on the southern edge of the delineated zone of aftershock activity and the maximum clustering of activity occurs in close proximity of the mainshock. Well-constrained focal depths of 122 aftershocks show that 89% of the aftershocks occurred at depths ranging between 6 and 25 km and only 7% and 4% aftershocks occur at depths less than 5 and more than 25 km respectively. The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship, logN = 4.52 - 0.89ML, is fitted to the aftershock data (1.0<-M L<5.0) and theb-value of 0.89 has been estimated for the aftershock activity.  相似文献   

9.
A data set of three-component short-period digital seismograms recorded in Friuli after the strong earthquake of 6th May 1976, allowed the local magnitude ML and the seismic moment M0 to be estimated in the range 0 < ML < 2. The data set including the same parameters for the higher-magnitude Friuli events (ML 5) shows two different slopes for the relation Log M0 = CML + d for the two different ranges of ML. One finds C ~ 1.0 (for 0 < ML < 2) and C ~1.5 (for5 ML 6.2), respectively.This implies that apparent stress release increases at low magnitudes, while it appears to be comparatively independent of the magnitude and to have an average value of about 100 bar for higher-magnitude earthquakes. Conversely, the fault dimensions do not appear to be magnitude-dependent for ML < 2; for higher-magnitude events the linear fault dimensions range from about 1 km at ML ~ 5 to about 12 km for the strong earthquake of 6th May 1976 (ML = 6.2).  相似文献   

10.
A detailed analysis of recording peculiarities at seismic stations of the Uniform System of Seismic Observations (USSO) is presented a complicated nature of the source being shown. Consideration is given to parameters of the earthquake source, including the seismic moment and the length of the rupture.Comparison of magnitudes MLH and MPV indicates an anomalous attenuation in surface waves, itis is 3–4 times weaker than it had been noticed in case of other intermediate-depth Carpathian earthquakes.On the basis of comparison of the logarithm of the ratio of P-wave spectra at different epicentral distances (30° –70° ), the fac tor characterizing the absorption of P wave is found to remain practically unchanged.Average value of the seismic moment is estimated to be 2.6 × 1027 dyne × cm, the most reasonable length of the rupture 58 km, and its focus 100 –130 km. The source parameters of the earthquake in question are compared with those of the earthquake of November 10, 1940.  相似文献   

11.
On February 13, 1981 a relatively strong earthquake occurred in the Lake Vänern region in south-central Sweden. The shock had a magnitude ofML = 3.3 and was followed within three weeks by three aftershocks, with magnitudes 0.5 ≤ ML ≤ 1.0. The focal mechanism solution of the main shock indicates reverse faulting with a strike in the N-S or NE-SW direction and a nearly horizontal compressional stress. The aftershocks were too small to yield data for a full mechanism solution, but first motions of P-waves, recorded at two stations, are consistent for the aftershocks. Dynamic source parameters, derived from Pg- and Sg-wave spectra, show similar stress drops for the main shock (2 bar) and the aftershocks (1 bar), while the differences in seismic moment (1.5·1020 resp. 4·1018dyne cm), fault length (0.7 resp. 0.2 km) and relative displacement (0.15 resp. 0.03 cm) are significant.  相似文献   

12.
F. Di Luccio  E. Fukuyama  N.A. Pino   《Tectonophysics》2005,405(1-4):141-154
On October 31, 2002 a ML = 5.4 earthquake occurred in southern Italy, at the margin between the Apenninic thrust belt (to the west) and the Adriatic plate (to the east). In this area, neither historical event nor seismogenic fault is reported in the literature. In spite of its moderate magnitude, the earthquake caused severe damage in cities close to the epicenter and 27 people, out of a total of 29 casualties, were killed by the collapse of a primary school in S. Giuliano di Puglia. By inverting broadband regional waveforms, we computed moment tensor solutions for 15 events, as small as ML = 3.5 (Mw = 3.7). The obtained focal mechanisms show pure strike-slip geometry, mainly with focal planes oriented to NS (sinistral) and EW (dextral). In several solutions focal planes are rotated counterclockwise, in particular for later events, occurring west of the mainshock. From the relocated aftershock distribution, we found that the mainshock ruptured along an EW plane, and the fault mechanisms of some aftershocks were not consistent with the mainshock fault plane. The observed stress field, resulting from the stress tensor inversion, shows a maximum principal stress axis with an east–west trend (N83°W), whereas the minimum stress direction is almost N–S. Considering both the aftershock distribution and moment tensor solutions, it appears that several pre-existing faults were activated rather than a single planar fault associated with the mainshock. The finite fault analysis shows a very simple slip distribution with a slow rupture velocity of 1.1 km/s, that could explain the occurrence of a second mainshock about 30 h after. Finally, we attempt to interpret how the Molise sequence is related to the normal faulting system to the west (along the Apennines) and the dextral strike-slip Mattinata fault to the east.  相似文献   

13.
Strong tectonic earthquakes within the crust always occur on already existing faults, and they have the property of a shear rupture. Such earthquakes with surface-wave magnitudes M < 7 obviously have a geometric similarity. Because of this similarity and the validity of the Gutenberg and Richter's energy—magnitude relation, the expression M = 2 log10 L + const., with L = focal length, is valid.The expression LmaxL* for the maximum focal length, is also valid if L* is the length of the rectilinear extent of the seismic line on which the maximum earthquake occurs. The bounds of L* may be given by sharp bends and/or by traversing deep faults. Thus the maximum imaginable earthquake on a seismic line with the length L* has the magnitude Mmax = 2 log10 L* + const.For the investigated region — the Alps and adjacent areas — from the data of recent and historical strong earthquakes, it follows that Mmax = 2 log10 L* + 1.7, if L* is measured in kilometres. These limiting values lie in the centre-field of the magnitude range for maximum earthquakes, published by Shebalin in 1970. By the aid of this equation it is also possible to assess the upper limiting value of the accompanying maximum scale intensity.  相似文献   

14.
During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (ML = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.  相似文献   

15.
We compare alkenone unsaturation ratios measured on recent sediments from the Indian Ocean (20°N–45°S) with modern sea oceanographic parameters. For each of the core sites we estimated average seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity, which we then weighted with the seasonal productivity cycle derived from chlorophyll satellite imagery. The unsaturation index (U37K′) ranges from 0.2 to 1 and correlates with water temperature but not with salinity. TheU37K′versus SST relationship for Indian Ocean sediments (U37K′= 0.033 SST + 0.05) is similar to what has been observed for core tops from the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and the Black Sea. A global compilation for core tops givesU37K′= 0.031 T + 0.084 (R= 0.98), which is close to a previously reported calibration based on particulate organic matter from the water column. For temperatures between 24° and 29°C, however, the slope seems to decrease to about 0.02U37K′unit/°C. For Indian Ocean core tops, the ratios of total C37alkenones/total C38alkenones and the slope of theU37K′-SST relationship are similar to those previously observed for cultures ofEmiliania huxleyibut different from those previously published forGephyrocapsa oceanica.EitherE. huxleyiis a major producer of alkenones in the Indian Ocean or strains ofG. oceanicaliving in the northern Indian Ocean behave differently from the one cultured. In contrast with coccolithophorid assemblages, the ratios of C37alkenones to total C38alkenones lack clear geographic pattern in the Indian Ocean.  相似文献   

16.
Katsuyuki Abe   《Tectonophysics》1975,27(3):223-238
The source mechanism of the Saitama earthquake (36.07°N,139.40°E, Ms = 5.4) of July 1, 1968, is studied on the basis of P-wave first motion, aftershock, long-period surface-wave data and low-magnification long-period seismograms recorded in the nearfield. A precise location of the aftershocks is made using P and S—P time data obtained by a micro-earthquake observatory network. The synthetic near-field seismograms based on the Haskell model are directly compared with the observed near-field seismograms for wave form and amplitude to determine the dynamic fault parameters. The results obtained are as follows: source geometry, reverse dip slip with considerable right-lateral strike-slip component; dip direction, N6°E; dip angle 30°; fault dimension, 10 × 6 km2; rupture velocity, 3.4 km/sec in the direction S30°E; average dislocation, 92 cm; average dislocation velocity, 92 cm/sec; seismic moment, 1.9 · 1025 dyn-cm; stress drop, 100 bar. The effective stress is about the same as the stress drop. For major earthquakes in the Japanese Islands, the dislocation velocity, .D, is found to be proportional to the stress drop, σ. This relation can be expressed by .D - (β/μ)σ, where β is the shear velocity and μ is the rigidity. This result has an importance in engineering seismology because the stress drop scales the seismic motion in the vicinity of an earthquake fault.  相似文献   

17.
The 19 November 1923 earthquake in the Aran Valley (Central Pyrenees), with observed maximum intensityI max = VIII (MSK), has been studied through the compiling and reviewing of macroseismic information and collecting and processing early seismograms. Analysis of macroseismic data gives a focal depth ofh = 5 km and an anelastic attenuation coefficient 10–3 km–1. Analysis of early instrumental records allows the computation of estimate of magnitude (M L = 5.6) and seismic moment (M o = 1.1 × 1017 N × m) which are consistent with the values ofI o andh obtained from macroseismic data.  相似文献   

18.
A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M L 6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra.  相似文献   

19.
Hydroacoustic data from autonomous arrays and the U.S. Navy's Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) provide an opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial properties of seismicity along portions of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), intermediate-spreading Juan de Fuca Ridge (JdFR) and fast-spreading East Pacific Rise (EPR). Aftershock and foreshock events are selected from the hydroacoustic earthquake catalog using single-link cluster (SLC) analysis, with a combined space–time metric. In the regions examined, hydroacoustic data improve the completeness level of the earthquake catalog by 1.5–2.0 orders of magnitude, allowing the decay constant, p, of the modified Omori law (MOL) to be determined for individual sequences. A non-parametric goodness-of-fit test indicates six of the seven sequences examined are described well by a MOL model. The p-values obtained for individual ridge and transform sequences using hydroacoustic data are larger than that previously estimated from the analysis of a stacked sequence generated from teleseismic data. For three sequences along the Siqueiros, Discovery and western Blanco Transforms, p-values are estimated to be 0.94–1.29. The spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests that the mainshock rupture is constrained by intra-transform spreading centers at these locations. An aftershock sequence following a 7.1Ms thrust event near the northern edge of the Easter Microplate exhibits p=1.02±0.11. Within the sequence, aftershocks are located to the north of a large topographic ridge, which may represent the surface expression of the shallow-dipping fault that ruptured during the mainshock. Two aftershock sequences near 24°25′N and 16°35′N on the MAR exhibit higher p-values, 1.74±0.23 and 2.37±1.65, although the latter estimate is not well constrained because of the small number of aftershocks. Larger p-values along the ridge crest might reflect a hotter thermal regime in this setting. Additional monitoring, however, will be needed to determine if p-value differences between the ridge and transform sequences are robust. A 1999 sequence on the Endeavour segment of the JdFR, which has been correlated with changes in the hydrothermal system, is described poorly by the MOL model. The failure of the MOL model, the anomalously large number of earthquakes within the sequence and absence of a clearly dominant mainshock are inconsistent with aftershock activity and the simple tectonic origin that has been proposed previously for this sequence.  相似文献   

20.
The 2nd century AD earthquake in central Italy is only known by an epigraph that mentions restorations to a damaged weighing-house at the ancient locality of Pagus Interpromium. The available seismic catalogues report this event with the conventional date of 101 AD, a magnitude M aw of 6.3, and an epicentral location at the village of San Valentino in Abruzzo Citeriore, in the province of Pescara. In order to improve the knowledge of the damage pattern, we gathered all the archaeological data collected during modern excavations at sites located in the area, which were presumably struck by the earthquake. This information is mainly represented by (1) stratigraphic units due to the sudden collapse of buildings over still frequented floors; (2) stratigraphic units demonstrating restoration or re-building of edifices; (3) stratigraphic units formed as the result of the abandonment of sites or of their lack of frequentation for decades or centuries. Only stratigraphic evidence consistent with an earthquake occurrence during the 2nd century AD has been considered. The most recent archaeological material found in a collapsed unit is a coin of Antoninus Pius, dated at 147–148 AD. This may represent a post quem date very close to the occurrence of the earthquake. The gathered information, plus the stratigraphic data that excluded the earthquake occurrence at some sites, has allowed us to roughly delineate an area of possible damage, including the Sulmona Plain and surrounding areas. Comparisons between the possible 2nd century damage distribution and (i) the damage patterns of more recent historical events that have struck the investigated area, (ii) the distribution of virtual intensities obtained by simulating an earthquake having an epicenter in the Sulmona Plain and applying an intensity attenuation relationship and (iii) a shaking scenario obtained by modelling the activation of the major active fault of the Sulmona Plain area (the Mt. Morrone fault) have revealed consistency between the ancient earthquake and the activation of this fault. Since no other historical events can be attributed to this active fault, we conclude that the time that has elapsed since the last fault activation should be in the order of 1,850 years, i.e. a time span that is very close to the recurrence interval of Apennine seismogenic sources. Moreover, considering the fault length, the causative source may be responsible for earthquakes with M up to 6.6–6.7. The comparison between the presumed 2nd century damage and the shaking scenario suggests that the magnitude mentioned is consistent with the presumed effects of the ancient earthquake. Finally, considering that Sulmona (the most important town in the region investigated) is located in the middle of the Mt. Morrone fault hanging wall, we consider it as the probable epicentral area. Therefore, to summarise the information on the 2nd century AD earthquake, we can conclude that (i) it occurred shortly after 147–148 AD; (ii) a magnitude M w 6.6–6.7 can be attributed to it and (iii) the probable macroseismic epicentral area was Sulmona.  相似文献   

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