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1.
The potential hydrologic impact of climatic change on three sub-basins of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) within Alberta, namely, Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins was investigated using the Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (Advances in Water Resources 29:808–826 2006). The European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40) climate data, Digital Elevation Model of the National Water Research Institute, land cover data and a priori soil parameters from the Ecoclimap global data set were used to drive MISBA to simulate the runoff of SSRB. Four SRES scenarios (A21, A1FI, B21 and B11) of four General Circulation Models (CCSRNIES, CGCM2, ECHAM4 and HadCM3) of IPCC were used to adjust climate data of the 1961–1990 base period (climate normal) to study the effect of climate change on SSRB over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099). The model results of MISBA forced under various climate change projections of the four GCMs with respect to the 1961–1990 normal show that SSRB is expected to experience a decrease in future streamflow and snow water equivalent, and an earlier onset of spring runoff despite of projected increasing trends in precipitation over the 21st century. Apparently the projected increase in evaporation loss due to a warmer climate over the 21st century will offset the projected precipitation increase, leading to an overall decreasing trend in the basin runoff of SSRB. Finally, a Gamma probability distribution function was fitted to the mean annual maximum flow and mean annual mean flow data simulated for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins by MISBA to statistically quantify the possible range of uncertainties associated with SRES climate scenarios projected by the four GCMs selected for this study.  相似文献   

2.
In high altitude areas snow cover duration largely determines the length of the growing season of the vegetation. A sensitivity study of snow cover to various scenarios of temperature and precipitation has been conducted to assess how snow cover and vegetation may respond for a very localized area of the high Swiss Alps (2050–2500 m above sea level). A surface energy balance model has been upgraded to compute snow depth and duration, taking into account solar radiation geometry over complex topography. Plant habitat zones have been defined and 23 species, whose photoperiodic preferences were documented in an earlier study, were grouped into each zone. The sensitivity of snowmelt to a change in mean, minimum and maximum temperature alone and a change in mean temperature combined with a precipitation change of +10% in winter and −10% in summer is investigated. A seasonal increase in the mean temperature of 3 to 5 K reduces snow cover depth and duration by more than a month on average. Snow melts two months earlier in the rock habitat zone with the mean temperature scenario than under current climate conditions. This allows the species in this habitat to flower earlier in a warmer climate, but not all plants are able to adapt to such changes.  相似文献   

3.
We examined the annual exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and moist tussock and dry heath tundra ecosystems (which together account for over one-third of the low arctic land area) under ambient field conditions and under increased winter snow deposition, increased summer temperatures, or both. Our results indicate that these two arctic tundra ecosystems were net annual sources of CO2 to the atmosphere from September 1994 to September 1996 under ambient weather conditions and under our three climate change scenarios. Carbon was lost from these ecosystems in both winter and summer, although the majority of CO2 evolution took place during the short summer. Our results indicate that (1) warmer summer temperatures will increase annual CO2 efflux from both moist and dry tundra ecosystems by 45–55% compared to current ambient temperatures; (2) deeper winter snow cover will increase winter CO2 efflux in both moist and dry tundra ecosystems, but will decrease net summer CO2 efflux; and (3) deeper winter snow cover coupled with warmer summer temperatures will nearly double the annual amount of CO2 emitted from moist tundra and will result in a 24% increase in the annual CO2 efflux of dry tundra. If, as predicted, climate change alters both winter snow deposition and summer temperatures, then shifts in CO2 exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere will likely not be uniform across the Arctic tundra landscape. Increased snow deposition in dry tundra is likely to have a larger effect on annual CO2 flux than warmer summer temperatures alone or warmer temperatures coupled with increased winter snow depth. The combined effects of increased summer temperatures and winter snow deposition on annual CO2 flux in moist tundra will be much larger than the effects of either climate change scenario alone.  相似文献   

4.
Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+10–40%), altered maximum snow depth (?5 ± 6 cm), and a shortened snow-season (?14 ± 7 days in spring, +20 ± 9 days in autumn). By conducting a series of prescribed snow experiments with the Community Land Model, we isolate how trends in snowfall, snow depth, and snow-season length affect soil temperature trends. Increasing snowfall, by countering the snowpack-shallowing influence of warmer winters and shorter snow seasons, is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for 10–30% of total soil warming at 1 m depth and ~16% of the simulated twenty-first century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption whereas a shallowing snowpack mitigates soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. Snowpack deepening has comparatively less impact due to saturation of snow insulative capacity at deeper snow depths. Snow depth and snow-season length trends tend to be positively related, but their effects on soil temperature are opposing. Consequently, on the century timescale the net change in snow state can either amplify or mitigate soil warming. Snow state changes explain less than 25% of total soil temperature change by 2100. However, for the latter half of twentieth century, snow state variations account for as much as 50–100% of total soil temperature variations.  相似文献   

5.
We use a state of the art climate model (CAM3–CLM3) to investigate the sensitivity of surface climate and land surface processes to treatments of snow thermal conductivity. In the first set of experiments, the thermal conductivity of snow at each grid cell is set to that of the underlying soil (SC-SOIL), effectively eliminating any insulation effect. This scenario is compared against a control run (CTRL), where snow thermal conductivity is determined as a prognostic function of snow density. In the second set of experiments, high (SC-HI) and low (SC-LO) thermal conductivity values for snow are prescribed, based on upper and lower observed limits. These two scenarios are used to envelop model sensitivity to the range of realistic observed thermal conductivities. In both sets of experiments, the high conductivity/low insulation cases show increased heat exchange, with anomalous heat fluxes from the soil to the atmosphere during the winter and from the atmosphere to the soil during the summer. The increase in surface heat exchange leads to soil cooling of up to 20 K in the winter, anomalies that persist (though damped) into the summer season. The heat exchange also drives an asymmetric seasonal response in near-surface air temperatures, with boreal winter anomalies of +6 K and boreal summer anomalies of −2 K. On an annual basis there is a net loss of heat from the soil and increases in ground ice, leading to reductions in infiltration, evapotranspiration, and photosynthesis. Our results show land surface processes and the surface climate within CAM3–CLM3 are sensitive to the treatment of snow thermal conductivity.  相似文献   

6.
Summary Trends in the time series of air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and onset of climatic seasons at ten stations in Estonia during 1951–2000 are analysed. Using the conditional Mann-Kendall test, these trends are compared with trends in the characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation: the NAO and AO indices, frequency of circulation forms according to the Vangengeim-Girs’ classification, and the northern hemisphere teleconnection indices. The objective of the study is to estimate the influence of trends in circulation on climate changes in Estonia. Statistically significant increasing trends in air temperature are detected in January, February, March, April and May, in winter (DJF), spring (MAM) and in the cold period (NDJFM). The trends in precipitation, as a rule, differ from station to station. Increasing trends are present during the cold half-year – from October until March – and also in June. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 17–20 days inland and by 21–36 days on the coast. The onsets of early spring and spring have shifted to an earlier date. Some important changes have occurred in the parameters of atmospheric circulation during 1951–2000. Intensity of zonal circulation, i.e. westerlies, has increased during the cold period, especially in February and March. Results of the conditional Mann-Kendall test indicate that the intensification of westerlies in winter is significantly related to climate changes in winter and also in spring. A negative trend in the East Atlantic Jet (EJ) index, i.e. the weakening of the westerlies in May has caused warming during that month. Decrease in northerly circulation, i.e. in frequency of circulation form C and in East Atlantic/West Russia teleconnection index (EW) is related to an increase in precipitation in October.  相似文献   

7.
Sensitivities to the potential impact of Climate Change on the water resources of the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) and Fraser River Basin (FRB) were investigated. The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC projected by seven general circulation models (GCM), namely, Japan’s CCSRNIES, Canada’s CGCM2, Australia’s CSIROMk2b, Germany’s ECHAM4, the USA’s GFDLR30, the UK’s HadCM3, and the USA’s NCARPCM, driven under four SRES climate scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1, and B2) over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2100) were used in these studies. The change fields over these three 30-year time periods are assessed with respect to the 1961–1990, 30-year climate normal and based on the 1961–1990 European Community Mid-Weather Forecast (ECMWF) re-analysis data (ERA-40), which were adjusted with respect to the higher resolution GEM forecast archive of Environment Canada, and used to drive the Modified ISBA (MISBA) of Kerkhoven and Gan (Adv Water Resour 29(6):808–826, 2006). In the ARB, the shortened snowfall season and increased sublimation together lead to a decline in the spring snowpack, and mean annual flows are expected to decline with the runoff coefficient dropping by about 8% per °C rise in temperature. Although the wettest scenarios predict mild increases in annual runoff in the first half of the century, all GCM and emission combinations predict large declines by the end of the twenty-first century with an average change in the annual runoff, mean maximum annual flow and mean minimum annual flow of −21%, −4.4%, and −41%, respectively. The climate scenarios in the FRB present a less clear picture of streamflows in the twenty-first century. All 18 GCM projections suggest mean annual flows in the FRB should change by ±10% with eight projections suggesting increases and 10 projecting decreases in the mean annual flow. This stark contrast with the ARB results is due to the FRB’s much milder climate. Therefore under SRES scenarios, much of the FRB is projected to become warmer than 0°C for most of the calendar year, resulting in a decline in FRB’s characteristic snow fed annual hydrograph response, which also results in a large decline in the average maximum flow rate. Generalized equations relating mean annual runoff, mean annual minimum flows, and mean annual maximum flows to changes in rainfall, snowfall, winter temperature, and summer temperature show that flow rates in both basins are more sensitive to changes in winter than summer temperature.  相似文献   

8.
Scenarios with daily time resolution are frequently used in research on the impacts of climate change. These are traditionally developed by regional climate models (RCMs). The spatial resolution, however, is usually too coarse for local climate change analysis, especially in regions with complex topography, such as Norway. The RCM used, HIRHAM, is run with lateral boundary forcing provided from two global medium resolution models; the ECHAM4/OPYC3 from MPI and the HadAM3H from the Hadley centre. The first is run with IPCC SRES emission scenario B2, the latter is run with IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2. All three scenarios represent the future time period 2071–2100. Both models have a control run, representing the present climate (1961–1990). Daily temperature scenarios are interpolated from HIRHAM to Norwegian temperature stations. The at-site HIRHAM-temperatures, both for the control and scenario runs, are adjusted to be locally representative. Mean monthly values and standard deviations based on daily values of the adjusted HIRHAM-temperatures, as well as the cumulative distribution curve of daily seasonal temperatures, are conclusive with observations for the control period. Residual kriging are used on the adjusted daily HIRHAM-temperatures to obtain high spatial temperature scenarios. Mean seasonal temperature grids are obtained. By adjusting the control runs and scenarios and improving the spatial resolution of the scenarios, the absolute temperature values are representative at a local scale. The scenarios indicate larger warming in winter than in summer in the Scandinavian regions. A marked west–east and south–north gradient is projected for Norway, where the largest increase is in eastern and northern regions. The temperature of the coldest winter days is projected to increase more than the warmer temperatures.  相似文献   

9.
We investigate the response of a climate system model to two different methods for estimating snow cover fraction. In the control case, snow cover fraction changes gradually with snow depth; in the alternative scenarios (one with prescribed vegetation and one with dynamic vegetation), snow cover fraction initially increases with snow depth almost twice as fast as the control method. In cases where the vegetation was fixed (prescribed), the choice of snow cover parameterization resulted in a limited model response. Increased albedo associated with the high snow caused some moderate localized cooling (3–5°C), mostly at very high latitudes (>70°N) and during the spring season. During the other seasons, however, the cooling was not very extensive. With dynamic vegetation the change is much more dramatic. The initial increases in snow cover fraction with the new parameterization lead to a large-scale southward retreat of boreal vegetation, widespread cooling, and persistent snow cover over much of the boreal region during the boreal summer. Large cold anomalies of up to 15°C cover much of northern Eurasia and North America and the cooling is geographically extensive in the northern hemisphere extratropics, especially during the spring and summer seasons. This study demonstrates the potential for dynamic vegetation within climate models to be quite sensitive to modest forcing. This highlights the importance of dynamic vegetation, both as an amplifier of feedbacks in the climate system and as an essential consideration when implementing adjustments to existing model parameters and algorithms.  相似文献   

10.
选取青藏高原东部地区1967~2010年61个测站的积雪数据,分析比较了整年和不同季节高原积雪的年代际变化特征及其与降雪和气温的关系,结果表明:除了秋季以外,高原东部积雪表现出“少雪-多雪-少雪“的显著年代际变化特征,80年代末发生的由少到多突变仅在冬季积雪中表现显著,20世纪末发生的由多到少突变在冬春两季积雪中均表现显著;降雪和气温的变化是影响高原东部积雪的重要因素,降雪变化的影响更加显著,尤其是秋季降雪;在冬春季降雪偏多时段,降雪的变化主导着积雪的变化;在冬春季降雪偏少时段,气温变化的影响增大,某些时段会超过降雪,甚至达到主导积雪变化的程度。   相似文献   

11.
To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.
Katharine HayhoeEmail:
  相似文献   

12.
The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on climate, but quantifying its impact is difficult. This study investigates the global impact of terrestrial snow cover through a pair of GCM simulations run with prognostic snow cover and with all snow cover on land eliminated (NOSNOWCOVER). In this experiment all snowfall over land was converted into its liquid–water equivalent upon reaching the surface. Compared with the control run, NOSNOWCOVER produces mean-annual surface air temperatures up to 5 K higher over northern North America and Eurasia and 8–10 K greater during winter. The globally averaged warming of 0.8 K is one-third as large as the model’s response to 2 × CO2 forcing. The pronounced surface heating propagates throughout the troposphere, causing changes in surface and upper-air circulation patterns. Despite the large atmospheric warming, the absence of an insulating snow pack causes soil temperatures in NOSNOWCOVER to fall throughout northern Asia and Canada, including extreme wintertime cooling of over 20 K in Siberia and a 70% increase in permafrost area. The absence of snow melt water also affects extratropical surface hydrology, causing significantly drier upper-layer soils and dramatic changes in the annual cycle of runoff. Removing snow cover also drastically affects extreme weather. Extreme cold-air outbreaks (CAOs)—defined relative to the control climatology—essentially disappear in NOSNOWCOVER. The loss of CAOs appears to stem from both the local effects of eliminating snow cover in mid-latitudes and a remote effect over source regions in the Arctic, where −40°C air masses are no longer able to form.  相似文献   

13.
The possible changes in the frequency of extreme temperature events in Hong Kong in the 21st century were investigated by statistically downscaling 26 sets of the daily global climate model projections (a combination of 11 models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The models’ performance in simulating the past climate during 1971–2000 has also been verified and discussed. The verification revealed that the models in general have an acceptable skill in reproducing past statistics of extreme temperature events. Moreover, the models are more skillful in simulating the past climate of the hot nights and cold days than that of the very hot days. The projection results suggested that, in the 21st century, the frequency of occurrence of extremely high temperature events in Hong Kong would increase significantly while that of the extremely low temperature events is expected to drop significantly. Based on the multi-model scenario ensemble mean, the average annual numbers of very hot days and hot nights in Hong Kong are expected to increase significantly from 9 days and 16 nights in 1980–1999 to 89 days and 137 nights respectively in 2090–2099. On the other hand, the average annual number of cold days will drop from 17 days in 1980–1999 to about 1 day in 2090–2099. About 65 percent of the model-scenario combinations indicate that there will be on average less than one cold day in 2090–2099. While all the model-emission scenarios in general have projected consistent trends in the change of temperature extremes in the 21st century, there is a large divergence in the projections between difierent model/emission scenarios. This reflects that there are still large uncertainties in the model simulation of the future climate of extreme temperature events.  相似文献   

14.
Fully and accurately studying temperature variations in montane areas are conducive to a better understanding of climate modeling and climate-growth relationships on regional scales. To explore the spatio-temporal changes in air and soil temperatures and their relationship in montane areas, on-site monitoring over 2 years (2015 and 2016) was conducted at nine different elevations from 2040 to 2740 m a.s.l. on Luya Mountain in the semiarid region of China. The results showed that the annual mean of air temperature lapse rate (ATLR) was 0.67 °C/100 m. ATLR varied obviously in different months within a range of 0.57~0.79 °C/100 m. The annual mean of the soil temperature lapse rate (STLR) was 0.48 °C/100 m. Seasonally, monthly mean soil temperature did not show a consistent pattern with regard to elevation. The relationships between air and soil temperatures showed piecewise changes. Soil was decoupled from the air temperature in cold winter and early spring. The parameters of the growing season based on the two temperature types had no corresponding relations, and seasonal mean of soil temperature showed the smallest value at mid-elevation rather than in the treeline ecotone. Based on these changes, our results emphasized that altitudinal and seasonal variability caused by local factors (such as snow cover and soil moisture) should be taken into full consideration in microclimate extrapolation and treeline prediction in montane areas, especially in relation to soil temperature.  相似文献   

15.
Warmer climate: less or more snow?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Changes in snow amount, as measured by the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE), are studied using simulations of 21st century climate by 20 global climate models. Although the simulated warming makes snow season to shorten from its both ends in all of Eurasia and North America, SWE at the height of the winter generally increases in the coldest areas. Elsewhere, snow decreases throughout the winter. The average borderline between increasing and decreasing midwinter SWE coincides broadly with the ?20°C isotherm in late 20th century November–March mean temperature, although with some variability between different areas. On the colder side of this isotherm, an increase in total precipitation generally dominates over reduced fraction of solid precipitation and more efficient melting, and SWE therefore increases. On the warmer side, where the phase of winter precipitation and snowmelt are more sensitive to the simulated warming, the reverse happens. The strong temperature dependence of the simulated SWE changes suggests that projections of SWE change could be potentially improved by taking into account biases in simulated present-day winter temperatures. A probabilistic cross verification exercise supports this suggestion.  相似文献   

16.
The paper deals with problems of temporal and spatial variability of snow cover duration, of correlation between snow cover and winter mean air temperature patterns and of the impact of climate change on the snow cover pattern in Estonia. Snow cover fields are presented in form of IDRISI raster images. Snow cover duration measured at ca 100 stations and observation points have been interpolated into raster cells. On the base of time series of raster images, a map of mean territorial distribution of snow cover duration is calculated. Estonia is characterized by a great spatial variability of snow cover mostly caused by the influence of the Baltic Sea. General regularities of snow cover pattern are determined. A 104-year time series of spatial mean values of snow cover duration is composed and analyzed. A decreasing trend and periodical fluctuations have detected. Standardized principal component analysis is used for the time series of IDRISI raster images. It enables to study the influence of different factors on the formation of snow cover fields and territorial extent of coherent fluctuations. Correlation between snow cover duration and winter mean air temperature fields is analyzed. A spatial regression model is created for estimation of the influence of climate change on snow cover pattern in Estonia. Using incremental climate change scenarios (2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C of warming in winter) mean decrease of snow cover duration in different regions in Estonia is calculated. According to results of model calculation, the highest decrease of snow cover duration will be take place on islands and in the coastal region of West Estonia. A permanent snow cover may not form at all. In the areas with maximum snow cover duration in North-East and South-East Estonia, that decrease should be much lower.  相似文献   

17.
Snow-albedo feedback and Swiss spring temperature trends   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We quantify the effect of the snow-albedo feedback on Swiss spring temperature trends using daily temperature and snow depth measurements from six station pairs for the period 1961?C2011. We show that the daily mean 2-m temperature of a spring day without snow cover is on average 0.4?°C warmer than one with snow cover at the same location. This estimate is comparable with estimates from climate modelling studies. Caused by the decreases in snow pack, the snow-albedo feedback amplifies observed temperature trends in spring. The influence is small and confined to areas around the upward-moving snow line in spring and early summer. For the 1961?C2011 period, the related temperature trend increases are in the order of 3?C7?% of the total observed trend.  相似文献   

18.
A nonlinear backpropagation network (BPN) has been trained with high-resolution multiproxy reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (input data) and glacier length variations of the Alpine Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland (output data). The model was then forced with two regional climate scenarios of temperature and precipitation derived from a probabilistic approach: The first scenario (“no change”) assumes no changes in temperature and precipitation for the 2000–2050 period compared to the 1970–2000 mean. In the second scenario (“combined forcing”) linear warming rates of 0.036–0.054°C per year and changing precipitation rates between −17% and +8% compared to the 1970–2000 mean have been used for the 2000–2050 period. In the first case the Lower Grindelwald Glacier shows a continuous retreat until the 2020s when it reaches an equilibrium followed by a minor advance. For the second scenario a strong and continuous retreat of approximately −30 m/year since the 1990s has been modelled. By processing the used climate parameters with a sensitivity analysis based on neural networks we investigate the relative importance of different climate configurations for the Lower Grindelwald Glacier during four well-documented historical advance (1590–1610, 1690–1720, 1760–1780, 1810–1820) and retreat periods (1640–1665, 1780–1810, 1860–1880, 1945–1970). It is shown that different combinations of seasonal temperature and precipitation have led to glacier variations. In a similar manner, we establish the significance of precipitation and temperature for the well-known early eighteenth century advance and the twentieth century retreat of Nigardsbreen, a glacier in western Norway. We show that the maritime Nigardsbreen Glacier is more influenced by winter and/or spring precipitation than the Lower Grindelwald Glacier.  相似文献   

19.
In an attempt to contribute to studies on global climatic change, 110 years of temperature data for Firenze, Italy, were analysed. Means and trends of annual and monthly temperatures (minimum, maximum and average) were analysed at three different time scales: short (20 years), medium (36–38 years) and long (55 years). Comparative changes in extreme events viz. frosts in the first and second parts of the 20th century were also analysed. At short time scales, climatic change was found in minimum and average temperatures but not in maximum temperatures. At all three time scales, the annual means of minimum, maximum and average temperatures were significantly warmer in the last part than in the early part of the 20th century. The monthly mean temperatures showed significant warming of winter months. Over the last four decades, minimum, maximum and average temperatures had warmed by 0.4, 0.43 and 0.4 ∘C per decade, respectively, and if this trend continues, they will be warmer by 4 ∘C by the end of the 21st century. The significant decline in days with subzero temperatures and frosts in the last half of the 20th century, further substantiated the occurrence of climate change at this site.  相似文献   

20.
Arctic climate change in the Twenty-first century is simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3). The simulations from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) are analyzed using eight (A1B and B1) or five (A2) ensemble members. The model simulates a reasonable present-day climate and historical climate trend. The model projects a decline of sea-ice extent in the range of 1.4–3.9% per decade and 4.8–22.2% per decade in winter and summer, respectively, corresponding to the range of forcings that span the scenarios. At the end of the Twenty-first century, the winter and summer Arctic mean surface air temperature increases in a range of 4–14°C (B1 and A2) and 0.7–5°C (B1 and A2) relative to the end of the Twentieth century. The Arctic becomes ice-free during summer at the end of the Twenty-first century in the A2 scenario. Similar to the observations, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant factor in explaining the variability of the atmosphere and sea ice in the 1870–1999 historical runs. The AO shifts to the positive phase in response to greenhouse gas forcings in the Twenty-first century. But the simulated trends in both Arctic mean sea-level pressure and the AO index are smaller than what has been observed. The Twenty-first century Arctic warming mainly results from the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases. The 1st empirical orthogonal function (explains 72.2–51.7% of the total variance) of the wintertime surface air temperature during 1870–2099 is characterized by a strong warming trend and a “polar amplification”-type of spatial pattern. The AO, which plays a secondary role, contributes to less than 10% of the total variance in both surface temperature and sea-ice concentration.  相似文献   

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