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1.
Tropical cyclone is one of the most devastating weather phenomena all over the world. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has developed a sophisticated mesoscale model known as Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system for tropical cyclone studies. The state-of-the-art HWRF model (atmospheric component) has been used in simulating most of the features our present study of a very severe tropical cyclone ??Mala??, which developed on April 26 over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the Arakan coast of Myanmar on April 29, 2006. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are obtained from Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast fields of the NCEP, respectively. The performance of the model is evaluated with simulation of cyclone Mala with six different initial conditions at an interval of 12?h each from 00 UTC 25 April 2006 to 12 UTC 27 April 2006. The best result in terms of track and intensity forecast as obtained from different initial conditions is further investigated for large-scale fields and structure of the cyclone. For this purpose, a number of important predicted fields?? viz. central pressure/pressure drop, winds, precipitation, etc. are verified against observations/verification analysis. Also, some of the simulated diagnostic fields such as relative vorticity, pressure vertical velocity, heat fluxes, precipitation rate, and moisture convergences are investigated for understanding of the characteristics of the cyclone in more detail. The vector displacement errors in track forecasts are calculated with the estimated best track provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The results indicate that the model is able to capture most of the features of cyclone Mala with reasonable accuracy.  相似文献   

2.
Several proxy data indicate an aridification of the East African climate during the Neogene, which might be influenced by the orographic changes of the East African Rift System (EARS) induced by tectonic forcing during the last 20 million years. To investigate the impact of the orography and especially of the rifts, the regional climate model CCLM is used, covering the EARS with Lake Victoria in the centre of the model domain. CCLM is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied with a double-nesting method resulting in a very high spatial resolution of 7 km. The resolution clearly shows the shoulders and rifts of the western and eastern branch of the EARS and the Rwenzoris within the western branch. To analyse the orographic influence on climate, a new technique of modifying the orography is used in this sensitivity study. The shoulders of the branches are lowered and the rifts are elevated, resulting in a smoothed orography structure with less altitude difference between the shoulders and rifts. The changes in 2 m-temperature are very local and associated with the changes in the orography. The vertically integrated moisture transport is characterised by less vortices, and its zonal component is increased over the branches. The resulting amount of precipitation is mainly decreased west of the western branch and increased in the rift of the western branch. In the eastern branch, however, the changes in the amount of precipitation are not significant. The changes in the precipitation and temperature patterns lead to a shift of biomes towards a vegetation coverage characterised by more humid conditions in the northern part of the model domain and more arid conditions in the South. Thus, the aridification found in the proxy data can be attributed to the orographic changes of the rifts only in the northern model domain.  相似文献   

3.
Northern India is comprised of complex Himalayan mountain ranges having different altitude and orientations. This highly variable terrain is responsible for complexity of the weather systems passing over the region. During winter season, large amount of precipitation is received in this region due to eastward moving low pressure synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs). Such heavy precipitation over the region lead to landslides and trigger avalanches in snow bound regions. This causes heavy damage to properties and human lives and therefore poses a great natural hazard threat. In this study an attempt is made to simulate a heavy precipitation event associated with an intense WD using a state of the art mesoscale model. Some important model simulated fields are compared with verifying analysis. Precipitation and circulation features associated with the intense WD are well simulated by the model. Forecast errors indicate that the high resolution mesoscale model could simulate the weather associated with the WD with reasonable accuracy.  相似文献   

4.
This paper proposes a new ensemble-based algorithm that assimilates the vertical rain structure retrieved from microwave radiometer and radar measurements in a regional weather forecast model, by employing a Bayesian framework. The goal of the study is to evaluate the capability of the proposed technique to improve track prediction of tropical cyclones that originate in the North Indian Ocean. For this purpose, the tropical cyclone Jal has been analyzed by the community mesoscale weather model, weather research and forecasting (WRF). The ensembles of prognostic variables such as perturbation potential temperature (θ, k), perturbation geopotential (?, m2/s2), meridional (U) and zonal velocities (V) and water vapor mixing ratio (q v , kg/kg) are generated by the empirical orthogonal function technique. An over pass of the tropical rainfall-measuring mission (TRMM) satellite occurred on 06th NOV 0730 UTC over the system, and the observations from the radiometer and radar on board the satellite(1B11 data products) are inverted using a combined in-home radiometer-radar retrieval technique to estimate the vertical rain structure, namely the cloud liquid water, cloud ice, precipitation water and precipitation ice. Each ensemble is input as a possible set of initial conditions to the WRF model from 00 UTC which was marched in time till 06th NOV 0730 UTC. The above-mentioned hydrometeors from the cloud water and rain water mixing ratios are then estimated for all the ensembles. The Bayesian filter framework technique is then used to determine the conditional probabilities of all the candidates in the ensemble by comparing the retrieved hydrometeors through measured TRMM radiances with the model simulated hydrometeors. Based on the posterior probability density function, the initial conditions at 06 00 UTC are then corrected using a linear weighted average of initial ensembles for the all prognostic variables. With these weighted average initial conditions, the WRF model has been run up to 08th Nov 06 UTC and the predictions are then compared with observations and the control run. An ensemble independence study was conducted on the basis of which, an optimum of 25 ensembles is arrived at. With the optimum ensemble size, the sensitivity of prognostic variables was also analyzed. The model simulated track when compared with that obtained with the corrected set of initial conditions gives better results than the control run. The algorithm can improve track prediction up to 35 % for a 24 h forecast and up to 12 % for a 54 h forecast.  相似文献   

5.
Real-time predictions for the JAL severe cyclone formed in November 2010 over Bay of Bengal using a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ARW) mesoscale model are presented. The predictions are evaluated with different initial conditions and assimilation of observations. The model is configured with two-way interactive nested domains and with fine resolution of 9?km for the region covering the Bay of Bengal. Simulations are performed with NCEP GFS 0.5° analysis and forecasts for initial/boundary conditions. To examine the impact of initial conditions on the forecasts, eleven real-time numerical experiments are conducted with model integration starting at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 4 Nov, 5?Nov and 00, 06, 12 UTC 6 Nov and all ending at 00 UTC 8 Nov. Results indicated that experiments starting prior to 18 UTC 04 Nov produced faster moving cyclones with higher intensity relative to the IMD estimates. The experiments with initial time at 18 UTC 04 Nov, 00 UTC 05 Nov and with integration length of 78?h and 72?h produced best prediction comparable with IMD estimates of the cyclone track and intensity parameters. To study the impact of observational assimilation on the model predictions FDDA, grid nudging is performed separately using (1) land-based automated weather stations (FDDAAWS), (2) MODIS temperature and humidity profiles (FDDAMODIS), and (3) ASCAT and OCEANSAT wind vectors (FDDAASCAT). These experiments reduced the pre-deepening period of the storm by 12?h and produced an early intensification. While the assimilation of AWS data has shown meagre impact on intensity, the assimilation of scatterometer winds produced an intermittent drop in intensity in the peak stage. The experiments FDDAMODIS and FDDAQSCAT produced minimum error in track and intensity estimates for a 90-h prediction of the storm.  相似文献   

6.
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7.
This paper investigates the characteristic features of the coastal atmospheric boundary layer (CABL) along the west coast of India during the south-west monsoon (SWM) 2002. Extensive surface and upper-air findings were obtained during the same period from the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX; 15th June to 15th August 2002) 2002. The operational general circulation model (GCM) of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) was used in this study to see the spatial variation of the CABL during two specific convective episodes that led to heavy rainfall along the west coast of India. The impact of a non-local closure (NLC) scheme employed in the NCMRWF GCM was carried out in simulating the CABL. The same episodes were also simulated using a similar parameterization scheme employed in the high resolution mesoscale modelling system (MM5). The diurnal variation of CABL is better represented from MM5 simulation. Comparing the MM5 simulation with that of the coarser grid NCMRWF GCM, we observed that the NCMRWF GCM underestimates the values of both latent heat flux (LHF) and the coastal atmospheric boundary layer height (CABLH). Results from MM5 therefore indicate that the best way to move forward in addressing the short-comings of coarse grid-scale GCMs is to provide a parameterization of the diurnal effects associated with convection processes.  相似文献   

8.
An abnormal warming condition with 3?C5?°C rise in temperature above its normal value was observed in the Indian state of Odisha during 12?C16 November 2009. This study aims at examining the impact of additional weather observations obtained from the automatic weather stations (AWS) installed in the recent past on the numerical simulation of such abnormal warming. AWS observations, such as temperature at 2?m (T2m), dew point temperature at 2?m (Td2m), wind vector at 10?m (speed and direction), and sea level pressure (SLP) have been assimilated into the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR). Six sets of experiments have been conducted here. There is no data assimilation in the control experiment, whereas AWS and radiosonde observations have been assimilated in rest of the five experiments. The model integrations have been made for 72?h in each experiment starting from 0000 UTC November 12 to 0000 UTC November 15, 2009. Assimilation experiments have also been performed to assess the impact of individual surface parameters on the model simulations. Impact of AWS observations on model simulation has been examined with reference to the control simulation and quantified in terms of root-mean-square error and forecast skill score for temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity at three selected stations Bonaigarh, Brahmagiri, and Nuapada in Odisha. Results indicate improvements in the surface air temperature and SLP simulations in the timescale of 72?h at all the three stations due to additional weather data assimilation into the model. Improvements in simulation are significant up to 24?h. The assimilation of additional wind fields significantly improved the temperature simulation at all the three stations. The simulated SLP has also improved significantly due to the assimilation of surface temperature and moisture.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging is examined on the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal to determine the optimum period and timescale of nudging. Six TCs (SIDR: November 13–16, 2007; NARGIS: April 29–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008; AILA: May 23–26, 2009; LAILA: May 18–21, 2010; JAL: November 04–07, 2010) were simulated with a doubly nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km in the inner domain. In the control run for each cyclone, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts at 0.5° resolution are used for initial and boundary conditions. In the FDDA experiments available surface, upper air observations obtained from NCEP Atmospheric Data Project (ADP) data sets were used for assimilation after merging with the first guess through objective analysis procedure. Analysis nudging experiments with different nudging periods (6, 12, 18, and 24 h) indicated a period of 18 or 24 h of nudging during the pre-forecast stage provides maximum impact on simulations in terms of minimum track and intensity forecasts. To determine the optimum timescale of nudging, two cyclone cases (NARGIS: April 28–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008) were simulated varying the inverse timescales as 1.0e?4 to 5.0e?4 s?1 in steps of 1.0e?4 s?1. A positive impact of assimilation is found on the simulated characteristics with a nudging coefficient of either 3.0e?4 or 4.0e?4 s?1 which corresponds to a timescale of about 1 h for nudging dynamic (u,v) and thermodynamical (t,q) fields.  相似文献   

11.
The quality of the surface wind analysis at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF), New Delhi over the tropical Indian Ocean and its improvement in 2001 are examined by comparing it within situ buoy measurements and satellite derived surface winds from NASA QuikSCAT satellite (QSCT) during 1999, 2000 and 2001. The NCMRWF surface winds suffered from easterly bias of 1.0–1.5 ms-1 in the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) and northerly bias of 2.0–3.0 ms-1 in the south equatorial IO during 1999 and 2000 compared to QSCT winds. The amplitude of daily variability was also underestimated compared to that in QSCT. In particular, the amplitude of daily variability of NCMRWF winds in the eastern equatorial IO was only about 60% of that of QSCT during 1999 and 2000. The NCMRWF surface winds during 2001 have significantly improved with the bias of the mean analyzed winds considerably reduced everywhere bringing it to within 0.5 ms-1 of QSCT winds in the equatorial IO. The amplitude and phase of daily and intraseasonal variability are very close to that in QSCT almost everywhere during 2001. It is shown that the weakness in the surface wind analysis during 1999 and 2000 and its improvement in 2001 are related to the weakness in simulation of precipitation by the forecast model in the equatorial IO and its improvement in 2001.  相似文献   

12.
In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data is studied on the prediction of two cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) technique. The FANOOS cyclone (December 6?C10, 2005) and the very severe cyclone NARGIS (April 28?CMay 2, 2008) were simulated with a double-nested weather research and forecasting (WRF-ARW) model at a horizontal resolution of 9?km. Three numerical experiments were performed using the WRF model. The back ground error covariance matrix for 3DVAR over the Indian region was generated by running the model for a 30-day period in November 2007. In the control run (CTL), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system analysis at 0.5° resolution was used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second experiment called the VARCON, the conventional surface and upper air observations were used for assimilation. In the third experiment (VARQSCAT), the ocean surface wind vectors from quick scatterometer (QSCAT) were used for assimilation. The CTL and VARCON experiments have produced higher intensity in terms of sea level pressure, winds and vorticity fields but with higher track errors. Assimilation of conventional observations has meager positive impact on the intensity and has led to negative impact on simulated storm tracks. The QSCAT vector winds have given positive impact on the simulations of intensity and track positions of the two storms, the impact is found to be relatively higher for the moderate intense cyclone FANOOS as compared to very severe cyclone NARGIS.  相似文献   

13.
In the present study, the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) version 3.2.1 has been used to simulate the heavy rainfall event that occurred between 7 and 9 October 2007 in the southern part of Bangladesh. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF–ARW version) modelling system with six different microphysics (MP) schemes and two different cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes in a nested configuration was chosen for simulating the event. The model domains consist of outer and inner domains having 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution, respectively with 28 vertical sigma levels. The impacts of cloud microphysical processes by means of precipitation, wind and reflectivity, kinematic and thermodynamic characteristics of the event have been studied. Sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather event. NCEP FNL data were used for the initial and boundary condition. The model ran for 72 h using initial data at 0000 UTC of 7 October 2007. The simulated rainfall shows that WSM6–KF combination gives better results for all combinations and after that Lin–KF combination. WSM3–KF has simulated, less area average rainfall out of all MP schemes that were coupled with KF scheme. The sharp peak of relative humidity up to 300 hPa has been simulated along the vertical line where maximum updraft has been found for all MPs coupled with KF and BMJ schemes. The simulated rain water and cloud water mixing ratio were maximum at the position where the vertical velocity and reflectivity has also been maximum. The production of rain water mixing ratio depends on MP schemes as well as CP schemes. Rainfall depends on rain water mixing ratio between 950 and 500 hPa. Rain water mixing ratio above 500 hPa level has no effect on surface rain.  相似文献   

14.
The life cycle of Bay of Bengal cyclone GIRI, characterized by a rapid intensification during 36-h interval, is investigated. The cyclone under study underwent a period of explosive cyclogenesis from 0000 UTC 21 October to 1200 UTC 22 October 2010. During this period, the sea level pressure minimum at the center of cyclone dropped by 52 hPa. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data is used to perform the analysis of Q-vectors, K-Index and potential vorticity (PV) perturbation in order to diagnose the life cycle of this unusual cyclone. The analysis reveals that during the period of explosive development, the 500–700 hPa column-averaged Q-vector convergence (regions of quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent) directly above the surface cyclone had strengthened, which in turn affected the lower to middle-tropospheric ascent and associated surface cyclogenesis. The analysis also reveals that the presence of lower-tropospheric cyclogenetic forcing in the environment, characterized by reduced static stability as measured by very high values of the K-Index produced a burst of heavy precipitation during the development stage of the cyclone. The associated latent heat release produced a substantial diabatic positive PV anomaly in the middle and lower troposphere that caused lower-tropospheric height falls associated with the explosive cyclogenesis. Thus, diabatic consequence of the latent heat release fueled the explosive development of the cyclone. The intensification mechanism of the cyclone occurred in two stages. A diabatically generated lower-tropospheric positive PV anomaly dominated the rapid intensification stage after initial triggering by a positive upper-level PV anomaly. A limited verification of ECMWF model shows that the model could predict the rapid intensification of the cyclone to a large extent and landfall near observed landfall point and time. It predicted lowest central pressure of 970.5 hPa 24-h in advance with landfall near 19.7°N and 93.7°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010 against the lowest estimated central pressure of 950 hPa and observed landfall near 20.0°N and 93.5°E around 1400 UTC 22 October 2010.  相似文献   

15.
In the present study, diagnostic studies were undertaken using station-based rainfall data sets of selected stations of Guyana to understand the variability of rainfall. The multidecadal variation in rainfall of coastal station Georgetown and inland station Timehri has shown that the rainfall variability was less during the May–July (20–30%) of primary wet season compared to the December--January (60–70%) of second wet season. The rainfall analysis of Georgetown based on data series from 1916 to 2007 shows that El Niño/La Niña has direct relation with monthly mean rainfall of Guyana. The impact is more predominant during the second wet season December--January. A high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model was made operational to generate real-time forecasts up to 84 h based on 00 UTC global forecast system (GFS), NCEP initial condition. The model real-time rainfall forecast during July 2010 evaluation has shown a reasonable skill of the forecast model in predicting the heavy rainfall events and major circulation features for day-to-day operational forecast guidance. In addition to the operational experimental forecast, as part of model validation, a few sensitivity experiments are also conducted with the combination of two cloud cumulus (Kain--Fritsch (KF) and Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ)) and three microphysical schemes (Ferrier et al. WSM-3 simple ice scheme and Lin et al.) for heavy rainfall event occurred during 28–30 May 2010 over coastal Guyana and tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’ formed during 25 August–04 September 2010 over east Caribbean Sea. It was observed that there are major differences in the simulations of heavy rainfall event among the cumulus schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. Overall, it was observed that the combination of BMJ and WSM-3 has shown qualitatively close to the observed heavy rainfall event even though the predicted amounts are less. In the case of tropical Hurricane ‘EARL’, the forecast track in all the six experiments based on 00 UTC of 28 August 2010 initial conditions for the forecast up to 84 h has shown that the combination of KF cumulus and Ferrier microphysics scheme has shown less track errors compared to other combinations. The overall average position errors for all the six experiments taken together work out to 103 km in 24, 199 km in 48, 197 km in 72 and 174 km in 84 h.  相似文献   

16.
西风与季风扰动对黑河流域降水影响的数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
利用中尺度天气模式WRF V2.2进行了两组风场的敏感性试验,分别模拟了西风与季风变化对黑河流域降水的影响.通过对大气环流、水汽输送、水汽辐合以及垂直上升运动的分析得出以下结论:西风与季风对黑河流域降水的影响方式不同,西风带直接作用于黑河流域,影响其降水,而季风则是通过对西风的调整间接影响黑河流域降水;西风与季风变化对黑河流域降水的影响范围不同,西风增强后,黑河流域南部山区降水落区西移,降水增加,最大值中心偏西北;季风增强后,黑河流域南部山区降水落区向东南移,降水增加,最大值中心偏东南.与其它量相比,黑河流域降水与垂直速度的对应关系最好.  相似文献   

17.
Paleo-groundwaters of 6000?years BP from the Liwa water-table sand dune aquifer in the Rub al Khali and the Gachsaran artesian carbonate aquifer, on the coast of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi (UAE), exhibit normal ??2H/??18O slopes, modest ??18O increases, and large negative deuterium excess ??d?? (Liwa aquifer: 2.19?? VSMOW and d?=??C15; Gachsaran aquifer: 3.16?? VSMOW and d?=??C28) compared to local Shamal precipitation (0.05?? VSMOW and d?=?7). This unusual isotopic signature is hypothesized to result from re-evaporation of continental runoff to the Red Sea catchment basin. It is postulated that this continental water flowed onto the surface of the Indian Ocean providing a moisture source for the monsoon that dominated precipitation during this, the last wet period in the area from 5000 to 9000 BP. Carbonate precipitation, forming speleothems, travertines, tufas, lacustrine, and capillary-zone deposits, subsequently record this ??18O isotopic signature. This rock record is thus dominated by the water source, rather than environmental conditions of deposition normally assumed to control the rock ??18O isotopic signature. As a consequence, re-evaluation of paleo-climate??18O data from the rock record may be necessary for this time period in southern Arabia.  相似文献   

18.
The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis of 2008 was a strong tropical cyclone that caused the deadliest natural disaster in the history of Myanmar. The time tested NCAR/PSU MM5 model has been used to simulate the Nargis cyclone, which is designed to have two domains covering the Bay of Bengal with horizontal resolutions of 90 and 30?km. The physics options chosen are Kain?CFritsch 2 for convection, Blackadar (BLA), Burk?CThompson, medium range forecast (MRF), Eta Mellor?CYamada (Eta MY) and Gayno?CSeaman (GS) for Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Simple Ice for explicit cloud physics processes. The experiment was conducted with the model integration starting from April 27, 2008, to May 3, 2008. The performance of the five PBL schemes is evaluated in terms of radius height cross-section of the three component winds, surface heat fluxes of sensible heat and latent heat, equivalent potential temperature (?? e ), precipitation, track and variation of Central Surface Pressure and wind speed with time. The numerical results show a large impact of the PBL schemes on the intensity and movement of the system. The intensity of the storm is examined in terms of pressure drop, strength of the surface wind and rainfall associated with the storm. The results are compared to the India Meteorological Department observations. These experiments indicate that the intensity of the storm is well simulated with the Eta MY and BLA with finer resolution. The simulated track with MRF compared well with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center observation at landfall position both with the 90 and 30?km resolutions.  相似文献   

19.
The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.  相似文献   

20.
Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.  相似文献   

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