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1.
Mt. Ruapehu, in the central North Island of New Zealand, is one of the most lahar-prone volcanoes in the world. Since historic
observations began in 1861 AD, more than 50 individual lahars have been recorded in the Whangaehu valley alone, the natural
outlet to the summit Crater Lake. These lahars have been triggered by a variety of mechanisms, including explosive eruptions
that displaced Crater Lake water over the outlet or ejected it onto the snow-clad summit area of the volcano; rain-remobilisation
of tephra deposits on steep slopes; displacement over the outlet as a result of syn-eruptive changes in lake bathymetry; and
lake break-outs from Crater Lake following impoundment of excess water behind temporary barriers of tephra and/or ice emplaced
over the outlet. However, only 9 lahar deposits can be distinguished in the upper Whangaehu valley on sedimentological, stratigraphic,
geomorphic and petrological grounds, and these are skewed towards either the largest or the most recent flows. In some cases
magnitude can be reconstructed from deposit geometry, with the largest lahars producing the highest level terraces, the coarsest
deposits, and crossing drainage divides into normally inactive channels. This under-representation of historic events reflects
the low preservation potential of unconsolidated deposits in a steep alpine environment, and the overprinting and recycling
effect of large magnitude lahars that rework material down to bedrock and effectively reset the stratigraphic record. Development
of magnitude-frequency relationships for Ruapehu lahars therefore requires the identification of lahar deposits in proximal,
medial and distal settings in order to ensure that the full range of events is represented. 相似文献
2.
Ruapehu is a very active andesitic composite volcano which has erupted five times in the past 10 years. Historical events have included phreatomagmatic eruptions through a hot crater lake and two dome-building episodes. Ski-field facilities, road and rail bridges, alpine huts and portions of a major hydroelectrical power scheme have been damaged or destroyed by these eruptions. Destruction of a rail bridge by a lahar in 1953 caused the loss of 151 lives. Other potential hazards, with Holocene analogues, include Strombolian and sub-Plinian explosive eruptions, lava extrusion from summit or flank vents and collapse of portions of the volcano. The greatest hazards would result from renewed phreatomagmatic activity in Crater Lake or collapse of its weak southeastern wall. Three types of hazard zones can be defined for the phreatomagmatic events: inner zones of extreme risk from ballistic blocks and surges, outer zones of disruption to services from fall deposits and zones of risk from lahars, which consist of tongues down major river valleys. Ruapehu is prone to destructive lahars because of the presence of 107 m3 of hot acid water in Crater Lake and because of the surrounding summit glaciers and ice fields. The greatest risks at Ruapehu are to thousands of skiers on the ski field which crosses a northern lahar path. Three early warning schemes have been established to deal with the lahar problems. Collapse of the southeastern confining wall would release much of the lake into an eastern lahar path causing widespread damage. This is a long-term risk which could only be mitigated by drainage of the lake. 相似文献
3.
4.
We present multi-parameter geophysical measurements of rainfall-induced lahars at Semeru Volcano, East Java, using two observation
sites 510 m apart, 11.5 km from the summit. Our study site in the Curah Lengkong channel is composed of a 30-m wide box-valley,
with a base of gravel and lava bedrock, representing an ideal geometry for high density measurements of active lahars. Instrumentation
included pore-pressure sensors (stage), a broad-band seismograph (arrival times, vibrational energy, and turbulence), video
footage, and direct bucket sampling. A total of 8 rainfall-induced lahars were recorded, with durations of 1–3 h, heights
0.5–2 m, and peak velocities 3–6 m/s. Flow types ranged from dilute to dense hyperconcentrated flows. These recorded flows
were commonly composed of partly coalesced, discrete and unsteady gravity current packets, represented by multiple peaks within
each lahar. These packets most likely originate from multiple lahar sources, and can be traced between instrument sites. Those
with the highest concentrations and greatest wetted areas were often located mid-lahar at our measured reach, accelerating
towards the flow front. As these lahars travel downstream, the individual packets thus coalesce and the flow develops a more
organised structure. Observations of different degrees of coalescence between these discrete flow packets illustrate that
a single mature debris flow may have formed from multiple dynamically independent lahars, each with different origins. 相似文献
5.
A fluid dynamics approach to modelling the 18th March 2007 lahar at Mt. Ruapehu,New Zealand 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Lahars are water-sediment mass flows from a volcanic source. They can be triggered by a variety of mechanisms and span a continuum
of flow rheology and hydraulic properties, even within the same event. Lahars are extremely powerful landscaping agents and
represent a considerable hazard potential. However, this highly dynamic character and a lack of direct measurements has made
modelling lahars difficult. This study therefore applies a fluid dynamics model; Delft3D, to analyse the 18th March 2007 dam
break lahar at Mount Ruapehu, New Zealand. The modelled lahar routed through the Whangaehu gorge in ~30 min, crossed the Whangaehu
fan in ~60 min, and then over a further 3 h travelled an additional ~22 km distance along the Whangaehu River to the Tangiwai
bridge. The modelled mean frontal velocity was 6.5 m s−1 along the gorge although peak velocity reached up to 19.6 m s−1. The modelled lahar flow front progressively slowed across the fan but along the River it accelerated from 2.1–3.3 m s−1. Calculated peak velocity along the River was <4.5 m s−1. These results generally compare well with gauged records, with historical records, and with other modelling approaches.
However, discrepancies in frontal velocity and time to peak stage arise due to (1) specifying roughness, which arises from
slope variations between adjacent computational nodes, and which is stage-dependant, and (2) due to rapid topographic changes
that produce frequent hydraulic jumps, which are inadequately accommodated in the numerical scheme. The overall pattern of
discharge attenuation, and of relationships between topographic and hydraulic variables, is similar to that calculated for
lahars on other volcanoes. This modelling method could be applied at other similar sites where a likely source hydrograph
and high-resolution topographic data are available. These results have important implications for hazard management at Ruapehu
and for examining geomorphic and sedimentary impacts of this lahar. 相似文献
6.
The Whangaehu fan is the youngest sedimentary component on the eastern ring plain surrounding Ruapehu volcano. Fan history comprises constructional (830–200 years bp) and dissectional (<200 years bp) phases. The constructional phase includes four aggradational periods associated with both syneruptive and inter-eruptive behavior. All four aggradational periods began when deposition by large lahars changed flow conditions on the fan from channelized to unchannelized. Subsequent behavior was a function of the rate of sediment influx to the fan. The rate of sediment influx, in turn, was controlled by frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, short-term climate change, and the amount of sediment stored on the volcano flanks. Fanwide aggradation occurred when rates of sediment influx and deposition on the fan were high enough to maintaìn unchannelized flow conditions on the fan surface. Maintenance of an undissected surface required sedimentation from frequent and large lahars that prevented major dissection between events. These conditions were best met during major eruptive episodes when high frequency and magnitude eruptions blanketed the volcano flanks with tephra and rates of lahar initiation were high. During major eruptive episodes, volcanism is the primary control on sedimentation. Climatic variations do not influence sediment accumulation. Local aggradation occurred when lahars were too small to maintain unchannelized flow across the entire fan. In this case, only the major channel system received much sediment following the deposition from the initial lahar. This localized aggradation occurred if (1) the sediment reservoir on the flank was large enough for floods to bulk into debris flows and (2) sedimentation events were frequent enough to maintain sediment supply to only some parts of the fan. These conditions were met during both minor eruptive and inter-eruptive episodes. In both cases, a large sediment reservoir remained on the volcano flanks from previous major eruptive intervals. Periods of increased storm activity produced floods that bulked to relatively small debris flows. When the sediment reservoir was depleted, the fan entered the present dissectional phase. Syneruptive and noneruptive lahars are mostly channelized and sediment bypasses the fan. Fan deposits are rapidly reworked. This is the present case at Ruapehu, even though the volcano is in a minor eruptive episode and the climate favors generation of intense storm floods. 相似文献
7.
Nevado del Huila, a glacier-covered volcano in the South of Colombia’s Cordillera Central, had not experienced any historical
eruptions before 2007. In 2007 and 2008, the volcano erupted with phreatic and phreatomagmatic events which produced lahars
with flow volumes of up to about 300 million m3 causing severe damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. The magnitude of these lahars and the prevailing potential for
similar or even larger events, poses significant hazards to local people and makes appropriate modeling a real challenge.
In this study, we analyze the recent lahars to better understand the main processes and then model possible scenarios for
future events. We used lahar inundation depths, travel duration, and flow deposits to constrain the dimensions of the 2007
event and applied LAHARZ and FLO-2D for lahar modeling. Measured hydrographs, geophone seismic sensor data and calculated
peak discharges served as input data for the reconstruction of flow hydrographs and for calibration of the models. For model
validation, results were compared with field data collected along the Páez and Simbola Rivers. Based on the results of the
2007 lahar simulation, we modeled lahar scenarios with volumes between 300 million and 1 billion m3. The approach presented here represents a feasible solution for modeling high-magnitude flows like lahars and allows an assessment
of potential future events and related consequences for population centers downstream of Nevado del Huila. 相似文献
8.
Titan2D is a depth-averaged, thin-layer computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, suitable for simulating a variety of geophysical mass flows. Titan2D output data include flow thickness and flow momentum at each time step for all cells traversed by the flow during the simulation. From this information the flow limit, run-out path, flow velocity, deposit thickness, and travel time can be calculated. Results can be visualized in the open-source GRASS GIS software or with the built-in Titan2D viewer. A new two-phase Titan2D version allows simulation of flows containing various mixtures of water and solids. The purpose of this study is to compare simulations by the two-phase flow version of Titan2D with an actual event. The chosen natural flow is a small ash-rich lahar (volume 50,000 m3–70,000 m3) that occurred on 12 February 2005 in the Vazcún Valley, located on the north-east flank of Volcán Tungurahua, Ecuador. Lahars and pyroclastic flows along this valley could potentially threaten the 20,000 inhabitants living in and near the city of Baños. A variety of data sources exist for this lahar, including: post-event meter-scale topography, and photographic, video, seismic and acoustic flow monitoring (AFM) records from during the event. These data permit detailed comparisons between the dynamics of the actual lahar and those of the Titan2D simulated flow. In particular, detailed comparisons are made between run-up heights, flow velocity, inundation area, and flow thickness. Simulations utilize a variety of data derived from field observations such as lahar volume, solid to pore-fluid ratio and pre-event topography. Titan2D is important in modeling lahars because it allows assessment of the impact of the flows on buildings and infrastructure lifelines located near drainages that descend from volcanoes. 相似文献
9.
Theresa Frimberger S. Daniel Andrade Samuel Weber Michael Krautblatter 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(3):680-700
Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km2 glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s2). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars. 相似文献
10.
Jean-Claude Thouret Franck Lavigne Hiroshi Suwa Bambang Sukatja Surono 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,70(2):221-244
Mt. Semeru, the highest mountain in Java (3,676 m), is one of the few persistently active composite volcanoes on Earth, with
a plain supporting about 1 million people. We present the geology of the edifice, review its historical eruptive activity,
and assess hazards posed by the current activity, highlighting the lahar threat. The composite andesite cone of Semeru results
from the growth of two edifices: the Mahameru ‘old’ Semeru and the Seloko ‘young’ Semeru. On the SE flank of the summit cone,
a N130-trending scar, branched on the active Jonggring-Seloko vent, is the current pathway for rockslides and pyroclastic
flows produced by dome growth. The eruptive activity, recorded since 1818, shows three styles: (1) The persistent vulcanian
and phreatomagmatic regime consists of short-lived eruption columns several times a day; (2) increase in activity every 5
to 7 years produces several kilometer-high eruption columns, ballistic bombs and thick tephra fall around the vent, and ash
fall 40 km downwind. Dome extrusion in the vent and subsequent collapses produce block-and-ash flows that travel toward the
SE as far as 11 km from the summit; and (3) flank lava flows erupted on the lower SE and E flanks in 1895 and in 1941–1942.
Pyroclastic flows recur every 5 years on average while large-scale lahars exceeding 5 million m3 each have occurred at least five times since 1884. Lumajang, a city home to 85,000 people located 35 km E of the summit,
was devastated by lahars in 1909. In 2000, the catchment of the Curah Lengkong River on the ESE flank shows an annual sediment
yield of 2.7 × 105 m3 km−2 and a denudation rate of 4 105 t km−2 yr−1, comparable with values reported at other active composite cones in wet environment. Unlike catchments affected by high magnitude
eruptions, sediment yield at Mt. Semeru, however, does not decline drastically within the first post-eruption years. This
is due to the daily supply of pyroclastic debris shed over the summit cone, which is remobilised by runoff during the rainy
season. Three hazard-prone areas are delineated at Mt. Semeru: (1) a triangle-shaped area open toward the SE has been frequently
swept by dome-collapse avalanches and pyroclastic flows; (2) the S and SE valleys convey tens of rain-triggered lahars each
year within a distance of 20 km toward the ring plain; (3) valleys 25 km S, SE, and the ring plain 35 km E toward Lumajang
can be affected by debris avalanches and debris flows if the steep-sided summit cone fails. 相似文献
11.
Christopher F. Waythomas 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1999,61(3):141-161
Akutan Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, but until recently little was known about its history
and eruptive character. Following a brief but sustained period of intense seismic activity in March 1996, the Alaska Volcano
Observatory began investigating the geology of the volcano and evaluating potential volcanic hazards that could affect residents
of Akutan Island. During these studies new information was obtained about the Holocene eruptive history of the volcano on
the basis of stratigraphic studies of volcaniclastic deposits and radiocarbon dating of associated buried soils and peat.
A black, scoria-bearing, lapilli tephra, informally named the "Akutan tephra," is up to 2 m thick and is found over most of
the island, primarily east of the volcano summit. Six radiocarbon ages on the humic fraction of soil A-horizons beneath the
tephra indicate that the Akutan tephra was erupted approximately 1611 years B.P. At several locations the Akutan tephra is
within a conformable stratigraphic sequence of pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are all part of the same eruptive
sequence. The thickness, widespread distribution, and conformable stratigraphic association with overlying pyroclastic-flow
and lahar deposits indicate that the Akutan tephra likely records a major eruption of Akutan Volcano that may have formed
the present summit caldera. Noncohesive lahar and pyroclastic-flow deposits that predate the Akutan tephra occur in the major
valleys that head on the volcano and are evidence for six to eight earlier Holocene eruptions. These eruptions were strombolian
to subplinian events that generated limited amounts of tephra and small pyroclastic flows that extended only a few kilometers
from the vent. The pyroclastic flows melted snow and ice on the volcano flanks and formed lahars that traveled several kilometers
down broad, formerly glaciated valleys, reaching the coast as thin, watery, hyperconcentrated flows or water floods. Slightly
cohesive lahars in Hot Springs valley and Long valley could have formed from minor flank collapses of hydrothermally altered
volcanic bedrock. These lahars may be unrelated to eruptive activity.
Received: 31 August 1998 / Accepted: 30 January 1999 相似文献
12.
Ruapehu composite volcano is a dynamic volcanic-sedimentary system, characterised by high accumulation rates and by rapid lateral and vertical change in facies. Four major cone-building episodes have occurred over 250 Ka, from a variety of summit, flank and satellite vents. Eruptive styles include subplinian, strombolian, phreatomagmatic, vulcanian and dome-related explosive eruptions, and extrusion of lava flows and domes. The volcano can be divided into two parts: a composite cone of volume 110 km3, surrounded by an equally voluminous ring plain. Complementary portions of Ruapehu's history are preserved in cone-forming and ring plain environments. Cone-forming sequences are dominated by sheet- and autobrecciated-lava flows, which seldom reach the ring plain. The ring plain is built predominantly from the products of explosive volcanism, both the distal primary pyroclastic deposits and the reworked material eroded from the cone. Much of the material entering the ring plain is transported by lahars either generated directly by eruptions or triggered by the high intensity rain storms which characterise the region. Ring plain detritus is reworked rapidly by concentrated and hyperconcentrated streams in pulses of rapid aggradation immediately following eruptions and more gradually in the longer intervals between eruptions. 相似文献
13.
Paolo Canuti Nicola Casagli Filippo Catani Giacomo Falorni 《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2002,27(36):1587-1599
Lahars, here defined as debris flows of volcanic origin, are rapid mass movements that pose a serious threat to cities located in the vicinity of many volcanoes. Quito, capital city of Ecuador and placed at the foot of the Pichincha volcano complex, is exposed to serious inundation hazard as part of the city is built on numerous deposits of large lahars that have occurred in the last 10,000 years.The objective of this paper is to model the potential lahars of the Pichincha volcano to predict inundation areas within the city of Quito. For this purpose two models that apply different approaches were utilized and their results were compared.The programs used were LAHARZ, a semi-empirical model conceived by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and FLO-2D, a hydraulic model distributed by FLO Software Inc. LAHARZ is designed as a rapid, objective and reproducible automated method for mapping areas of potential lahar inundation (Proc. First Int. Conf. on Debris Flow Hazards Mitigation, San Francisco, USA, ASCE, 1998, p. 176). FLO-2D is a two-dimensional flood routing model for simulating overland flow on complex surfaces such as floodplains, alluvial fans or urbanized areas (FLO-2D Users manual, version 99.2). Both models run within geographical information systems (GIS).Fieldwork was focused on collecting all available information involved in lahar modeling. A total of 49 channel cross-sections were measured along the two main streams and stratigraphic investigations were carried out on the fans to estimate the volume of previous events. A global positioning system was utilized to determine the coordinates of each cross-section. Further data collection concerned topography, rainfall characteristics and ashfall thicknesses. All fieldwork was carried out in cooperation with the Instituto Geofisico of the Escuela Politecnica Nacional.Modeling in a GIS environment greatly aided the exportation of results for the creation of thematic maps and facilitated model comparison. Evaluation of the models was performed by comparing simulation results against each other and against the geometry of existing lahar deposits. 相似文献
14.
Céline Dumaisnil Jean‐Claude Thouret Guillaume Chambon Emma E. Doyle Shane J. Cronin Surono 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(13):1573-1590
Lahars (volcanic debris flows) have been responsible for 40% of all volcanic fatalities over the past century. Mount Semeru (East Java, Indonesia) is a persistently active composite volcano that threatens approximately one million people with its lahars and pyroclastic flows. Despite their regularity, the behaviour and the propagation of these rain‐triggered lahars are poorly understood. In situ samples were taken from lahars in motion at two sites in the Curah Lengkong River, on the southeast flank of Semeru, providing estimates of the particle concentration, grain size spectrum, grain density and composition. This enables us to identify flow sediment from three categories of lahars: (a) hyperconcentrated flow, (b) non‐cohesive, clast‐ and matrix‐supported debris flow, and (c) muddy flood. To understand hyperconcentrated flow sediment transport processes, it is more appropriate to sample the active flows than the post‐event lahar deposits because in situ sampling retains the full spectrum of the grain‐size distribution. Rheometrical tests on materials sampled from moving hyperconcentrated flows were carried out using a laboratory vane rheometer. Despite technical difficulties, results obtained on the <63, <180, and <400 µm fractions of the sampled sediment, suggest a purely frictional behaviour. Importantly, and contrary to previous experiments conducted with monodisperse suspensions, our results do not show any transition towards a viscous behaviour for high shear rates. These data provide important constraints for future physical and numerical modelling of lahar flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
C. Silva Parejas T. H. Druitt C. Robin H. Moreno J.-A. Naranjo 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(6):677-692
The Pucón eruption was the largest Holocene explosive outburst of Volcán Villarrica, Chile. It discharged >1.0 km3 of basaltic-andesite magma and >0.8 km3 of pre-existing rock, forming a thin scoria-fall deposit overlain by voluminous ignimbrite intercalated with pyroclastic
surge beds. The deposits are up to 70 m thick and are preserved up to 21 km from the present-day summit, post-eruptive lahar
deposits extending farther. Two ignimbrite units are distinguished: a lower one (P1) in which all accidental lithic clasts
are of volcanic origin and an upper unit (P2) in which basement granitoids also occur, both as free clasts and as xenoliths
in scoria. P2 accounts for ∼80% of the erupted products. Following the initial scoria fallout phase, P1 pyroclastic flows
swept down the northern and western flanks of the volcano, magma fragmentation during this phase being confined to within
the volcanic edifice. Following a pause of at least a couple of days sufficient for wood devolatilization, eruption recommenced,
the fragmentation level dropped to within the granitoid basement, and the pyroclastic flows of P2 were erupted. The first
P2 flow had a highly turbulent front, laid down ignimbrite with large-scale cross-stratification and regressive bedforms,
and sheared the ground; flow then waned and became confined to the southeastern flank. Following emplacement of pyroclastic
surge deposits all across the volcano, the eruption terminated with pyroclastic flows down the northern flank. Multiple lahars
were generated prior to the onset of a new eruptive cycle. Charcoal samples yield a probable eruption age of 3,510 ± 60 14C years BP. 相似文献
16.
J. -C. Thouret F. Lavigne K. Kelfoun S. Bronto 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2000,100(1-4)
Of 1.1 million people living on the flanks of the active Merapi volcano, 440,000 are at relatively high risk in areas prone to pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars. For the last two centuries, the activity of Merapi has alternated regularly between long periods of viscous lava dome extrusion, and brief explosive episodes at 8–15 year intervals, which generated dome-collapse pyroclastic flows and destroyed part of the pre-existing domes. Violent explosive episodes on an average recurrence of 26–54 years have generated pyroclastic flows, surges, tephra-falls, and subsequent lahars. The 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s killed about 7000 people. The current hazard-zone map of Merapi (Pardyanto et al., 1978) portrays three areas, termed ‘forbidden zone’, ‘first danger zone’ and ‘second danger zone’, based on successively declining hazards. Revision of the hazard map is desirable, because it lacks details necessary to outline hazard zones with accuracy, in particular the valleys likely to be swept by lahars, and excludes some areas likely to be devastated by pyroclastic gravity-currents such as the 22 November 1994 surge. In addition, risk maps should be developed to incorporate social, technical, and economic factors of vulnerability.Eruptive hazard assessment at Merapi is based on reconstructed eruptive history, on eruptive behavior and scenarios, and on existing models and preliminary numerical modeling. Firstly, the reconstructed eruptive activity, in particular for the past 7000 years and from historical accounts of eruptions, helps to define the extent and recurrence frequency of the most hazardous phenomena (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 9–15 km from the source, pyroclastic surges swept the flanks as far as 9–20 km away from the vent, thick tephra fall buried temples in the vicinity of Yogyakarta 25 km to the south, and subsequent lahars spilled down the radial valleys as far as 30 km to the west and south. At least one large edifice collapse has occurred in the past 7000 years (Newhall et al., 2000; Camus et al., 2000). Secondly, four eruption scenarios are portrayed as hazardous zones on two maps and derived from the past eruptive behavior of Merapi and from the most affected areas in the past. Thirdly, simple numerical simulation, based on a Digital Elevation Model, a stereo-pair of SPOT satellite images, and one 2D-orthoimage helps to simulate pyroclastic and lahar flowage on the flanks and in radial valley channels, and to outline areas likely to be devastated.Three major threats are identified: (1) a collapse of the summit dome in the short-to mid-term, that can release large-volume pyroclastic flows and high-energy surges towards the south–southwest sector of the volcano; (2) an explosive eruption, much larger than any since 1930, may sweep all the flanks of Merapi at least once every century; (3) a potential collapse of the summit area, involving the fumarolic field of Gendol and part of the southern flank, which can contribute to moderate-scale debris avalanches and debris flows. 相似文献
17.
A. R. Darnell J. Barclay R. A. Herd J. C. Phillips A. A. Lovett P. Cole 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(6):1337-1353
Many research tools for lahar hazard assessment have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application to an active volcanic system where field measurements are challenging to obtain. Two simple routing models, with minimal data demands and implemented in a geographical information system (GIS), were applied to dilute lahars originating from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Single-direction flow routing by path of steepest descent, commonly used for simulating normal stream-flow, was tested against LAHARZ, an established lahar model calibrated for debris flows, for ability to replicate the main flow routes. Comparing the ways in which these models capture observed changes, and how the different modelled paths deviate can also provide an indication of where dilute lahars, do not follow behaviour expected from single-phase flow models. Data were collected over two field seasons and provide (1) an overview of gross morphological change after one rainy season, (2) details of dominant channels at the time of measurement, and (3) order of magnitude estimates of individual flow volumes. Modelling results suggested both GIS-based predictive tools had associated benefits. Dominant flow routes observed in the field were generally well-predicted using the hydrological approach with a consideration of elevation error, while LAHARZ was comparatively more successful at mapping lahar dispersion and was better suited to long-term hazard assessment. This research suggests that end-member models can have utility for first-order dilute lahar hazard mapping. 相似文献
18.
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 altered the conditions of the surrounding river catchments. Pyroclastic flows and tephra fall were deposited over extensive areas, stripping off the forest cover and burying drainage divides. These recent deposits are very loosely consolidated and generally consist of sand‐sized particles, which commonly mobilize into lahars in response to rainfall of a certain magnitude. Several devastating lahar occurrences have buried settlements covering tens to several hundred square kilometres in a single event. Correlation of storm rainfall intensities and durations with lahar activity as recorded by acoustic flow monitors is used to investigate trends in the initiation conditions for lahar activity. This research confirms that the relationships of rainfall intensity and duration with lahar initiation threshold values are not linear but rather approximate a power relation. Different relations were found for lahar initiation in different years, from 1991 to 1997, as a result of the dynamic changes in hydrologic and geomorphic conditions of the affected catchments. Data from acoustic flow monitors are used to distinguish debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow activity from that of muddy water. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
F. Lavigne J. C. Thouret B. Voight H. Suwa A. Sumaryono 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2000,100(1-4)
Merapi volcano, in Central Java, is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. At least 23 of the 61 reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have produced source deposits for lahars. The combined lahar deposits cover about 286 km2 on the flanks and the surrounding piedmonts of the volcano. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 h. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April, and have average velocities of 5–7 m/s at 1000 m in elevation. A wide range of facies may be generated from a single flow, which may transform downvalley from debris flow to hyperconcentrated streamflow.Because of the high frequency and magnitude of the lahar events, lahar-related hazards are high below about 450–600 m elevation in each of the 13 rivers which drain the volcano. Hazard-zone maps for lahar were produced by Pardyanto et al. (Volcanic hazard map, Merapi volcano, Central Java (1/100,000). Geol. Surv. of Indonesia, Bandung, II, 4, 1978) and the Japanese–Indonesian Cooperation Agency (Master plan for land conservation and volcanic debris control in the area of Mt Merapi, Jakarta, 1980), but these maps are of a very small scale to meet modern zoning requirements. More recently, a few large-scale maps (1/10,000- and 1/2000-scale) and risk assessments have been completed for a few critical river systems. 相似文献
20.
The May 22, 1915 eruptions of Lassen Peak involved a volcanic blast and the emplacement of three geographically and temporally distinct lahar deposits. The volcanic blast occurred when a Vulcanian explosion at the summit unroofed a shallow magma source, generating an eruption cloud that rose to an estimated height of 9 km above sea level. The blast cloud was probably caused by the collapse of a small portion of the eruption column; absence of a flank vent associated with these eruptions argues against it originating as an explosion that has been directed by vent geometry or location. The volcanic blast devasted 7 km2 of the northeast flank of the volcano, and emplaced a deposit of juvenile tephra and accidental lithic and mineral fragments. Decrease in blast deposit thickness and median grain size with increasing distance from the vent suggests that the blast cloud lost transport competence as it crossed the devastated area. Scanning electron microscope examination of pyroclasts from the blast deposit indicates that the blast cloud was a dry, turbulent suspension that emplaced a thin deposit which cooled rapidly after deposition. Lahar deposits were emplaced primarily in Lost Creek, with minor lahars flowing down gullies on the west, northwest and north flanks of the volcano. The initial lahar was apparently triggered early in the eruption when the blast cloud melted the residual snowpack as it moved down the northeast flank of the peak. The event that triggered the later lahars is enigmatic; the presence of approximately five times more juvenile dacite bombs on the surface of the later lahars suggests that they may have been triggered by a change in eruption style or dynamics. 相似文献