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1.
Richard Condit 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):413-427
CO2 concentration is increasing, temperature is likely to rise, and precipitation patterns might change. Of these potential climatic shifts, it is precipitation that will have the most impact on tropical forests, and seasonal patterns of rainfall and drought will probably be more important than the total quantity of precipitation. Many tree species are limited in distribution by their inability to survive drought. In a 50 ha forest plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama (BCI), nearly all tree and shrub species associated with moist microhabitats are declining in abundance due to a decline in rainfall and lengthening dry seasons. This information forms the basis for a simple, general prediction: drying trends can rapidly remove drought-sensitive species from a forest. If the drying trend continues at BCI, the invasion of drought-tolerant species would be anticipated, but computer models predict that it could take 500 or more years for tree species to invade and become established. Predicting climate-induced changes in tropical forest also requires geographic information on tree distribution relative to precipitation patterns. In central Panama, species with the most restricted ranges are those from areas with a short dry season (10–14 weeks): 26–39% of the tree species in these wet regions do not occur where it is drier. In comparison, just 11–19% of species from the drier side of Panama (18 week dry season) are restricted to the dry region. From this information, I predict that a four-week extension of the dry season could eliminate 25% of the species locally; a nine-week extension in very wet regions could cause 40% extinction. Since drier forests are more deciduous than wetter forests, satellite images that monitor deciduousness might provide a way to assess long-term forest changes caused by changes in drought patterns. I predict that increasing rainfall and shorter dry seasons would not cause major extinction in tropical forest, but that drying trends are a much greater concern. Longer dry seasons may cause considerable local extinction of tree species and rapid forest change, and they will also tend to exacerbate direct human damage, which tends to favor drought-adapted and invasive tree species in favor of moisture-demanding ones. 相似文献
2.
Rolf Borchert 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):381-393
Seasonality and physiognomy of tropical forests are mainly determined by the amount of annual rainfall and its seasonal distribution. Climatic change scenarios predict that global warming will result in reduced annual rainfall and longer dry seasons for some, but not all, tropical rainforests. Tropical trees can reduce the impact of seasonal drought by adaptive mechanisms such as leaf shedding or stem succulence and by utilization of soil water reserves, which enable the maintenance of an evergreen canopy during periods of low rainfall. Correlations between climate and responses of tropical trees are therefore poor and the responses of tropical rainforests to climatic changes are hard to predict. Predicted climate change is unlikely to affect the physiognomy of rainforests with high annual rainfall and low seasonality. Seasonal evergreen forests which depend on the use of soil water reserves will be replaced by more drought-tolerant semideciduous forests, once rainfall becomes insufficient to replenish soil water reserves regularly. As the limits of drought tolerance of tropical rainforests are not known, rate and extent of future changes cannot be predicted. 相似文献
3.
Whendee L. Silver 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):337-361
Tropical forests are responsible for a large proportion of the global terrestrial C flux annually for natural ecosystems. Increased atmospheric CO2 and changes in climate are likely to affect the distribution of C pools in the tropics and the rate of cycling through vegetation and soils. In this paper, I review the literature on the pools and fluxes of carbon in tropical forests, and the relationship of these to nutrient cycling and climate. Tropical moist and humid forests have the highest rates of annual net primary productivity and the greatest carbon flux from soil respiration globally. Tropical dry forests have lower rates of carbon circulation, but may have greater soil organic carbon storage, especially at depths below 1 meter. Data from tropical elevation gradients were used to examine the sensitivity of biogeochemical cycling to incremental changes in temperature and rainfall. These data show significant positive correlations of litterfall N concentrations with temperature and decomposition rates. Increased atmospheric CO2 and changes in climate are expected to alter carbon and nutrient allocation patterns and storage in tropical forest. Modeling and experimental studies suggest that even a small increase in temperature and CO2 concentrations results in more rapid decomposition rates, and a large initial CO2 efflux from moist tropical soils. Soil P limitation or reductions in C:N and C:P ratios of litterfall could eventually limit the size of this flux. Increased frequency of fires in dry forest and hurricanes in moist and humid forests are expected to reduce the ecosystem carbon storage capacity over longer time periods. 相似文献
4.
Deepak K. Ray 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):775-783
To prevent the loss of biodiversity in northern Central America, which is one of 34 global biodiversity hotspots, the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, a network of protected parks and reserves has been proposed. While on-going deforestation to croplands and pastures outside the protected regions is likely to effect the dry season precipitation over the regenerated and extant forests in the proposed protected regions, global climate change driven precipitation changes may also be a significant factor, at least at some locations. This study compares the effects of land cover change to the effects of elevated greenhouse gas concentrations on precipitation in the proposed areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor network. Using 5 consecutive dry season simulations of the effects of land cover change that included dry, wet and normal years, and using statistically downscaled global climate model (GCM) precipitation from the fourth assessment report (AR4), a larger expanse of the proposed protected regions was found more sensitive to precipitation decreases due to land cover changes. Two specific protected regions however stand out: the Maya Highlands and some areas of the Maya lowlands that were more sensitive to global climate change driven precipitation decreases. In these protected regions it is likely that irrespective of local policies the climate change signal would dominate. 相似文献
5.
This paper is concerned with climate change in the region of the Canary Islands and the potential implications for the laurel forests of Tenerife. Frequent orographic cloud formation during the dry season is of vital importance to the altitudinal distribution of the laurel forests, because it maintains a semi-humid environment in the otherwise semi-arid climate of the Canary Islands. The distinctive environmental conditions in conjunction with the location of the Canary Islands on the Northern poleward edge of the Hadley Circulation make these ecosystems potentially highly sensitive to regional changes in climatic conditions. To explore this sensitivity, we first quantify observed trends in humidity and temperature across an altitudinal transect at the base of the Anaga peninsular, and second, analyse the results of three GCM experiments (CGCM1, ECHAM4 and CSIRO) to develop alternative climate change scenarios, and third, use these data to assess likely shifts in the elevational distribution of the laurel forest climate envelope. We report a significant increase in relative humidity and decreases in the diurnal temperature range on Tenerife at altitudes below the trade wind inversion within the last 30 years during the dry season, which suggests an increased occurrence of low-level clouds. There is also partial evidence for a drying trend across the trade wind inversion, which may be linked to an increased subsidence. Overall, the models suggest a downward shift of the area climatically suitable for laurel forests, which may be driven by changes in temperature and moisture supply in the region as well as by larger-scale changes in the atmospheric circulation. Our findings contrast with previously published findings for a tropical montane cloud region, which predict an upward shift of the cloud base. This suggests, following the assumptions inherent in the models applied, that the ecological consequences of climate change for cloud forests may be linked to their relative location in the Hadley Circulation. 相似文献
6.
S. Manabe R. T. Wetherald P. C. D. Milly T. L. Delworth R. J. Stouffer 《Climatic change》2004,64(1-2):59-76
It has been suggested that, unless a major effort is made, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide may rise above four times the pre-industrial level in a few centuries. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land model to explore the response of the global water cycle to such a large increase in carbon dioxide, focusing on river discharge and soil moisture. Our results suggest that water is going to be more plentiful in those regions of the world that are already `water-rich'. However, water stresses will increase significantly in regions and seasons that are already relatively dry. This could pose a very challenging problem for water-resource management around the world. For soil moisture, our results indicate reductions during much of the year in many semi-arid regions of the world, such as the southwestern region of North America, the northeastern region of China, the Mediterranean coast of Europe, and the grasslands of Australia and Africa. In some of these regions, soil moisture values are reduced by almost a factor of two during the dry season. The drying in semi-arid regions is likely to induce the outward expansion of deserts to the surrounding regions. Over extensive regions of both the Eurasian and North American continents in high and middle latitudes, soil moisture decreases in summer but increases in winter, in contrast to the situation in semi-arid regions. For river discharge, our results indicate an average increase of ～ 15% during the next few centuries. The discharges from Arctic rivers such as the Mackenzie and Ob' increase by much larger fractions. In the tropics, the discharges from the Amazonas and Ganga-Brahmaputra also increase considerably. However, the percentage changes in runoff from other tropical and many mid-latitude rivers are smaller. 相似文献
7.
枯季是水旱、水生态和水资源问题的重要时期,枯季径流的变化直接影响着河流生态和流域水资源管理。基于中国网格气象数据和主要江河枯季径流资料,初步分析了1961—2018年中国气候变化趋势和主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因。结果表明,全国枯季平均气温显著上升,北方地区升温较早,南方地区2001—2018年升温明显。全国约84%的地区枯季降水有增加趋势,其中约42.2%的地区增加显著;全国枯季降水呈现西北、东北和东南显著增加,中部变化不显著格局。黄河中游和海河枯季径流下降显著,2001—2018年黄河中游枯季径流较1961—1980年减少了34%,同时期海河流域枯季径流量减少幅度均超过80%;松花江上游和长江流域枯季径流增加显著,2001—2018年松花江上游枯季径流量增加了约67%,长江流域枯季径流量增加了约16%。枯季降水增加主导了松花江上游、辽河、淮河、长江以及珠江枯季径流的增加;气温的显著上升对黄河中游和海河等地枯季径流有显著负向作用;人类活动是松花江中游、黄河和海河枯季径流下降的主要影响因素。尽管全国枯季降水的增加对于缓解流域生态和水资源问题有积极作用,但人类活动和气温显著上升加速了水资源的消耗,加大了流域水资源脆弱性。 相似文献
8.
RCP4.5情景下中国未来干湿变化预估 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文采用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)中21个气候模式的试验数据, 利用土壤湿度以及由其他8个地表气象要素计算所得的干旱指数, 预估了RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景下21世纪中国干湿变化。结果表明:全球气候模式对1986～2005年中国现代干湿分布具备模拟能力, 尽管在西部地区模式与观测间存在一定的差异。在RCP4.5情景下, 21世纪中国区域平均的标准化降水蒸散发指数和土壤湿度均有减小趋势, 与之对应的是短期和长期干旱发生次数增加以及湿润区面积减小。从2016到2100年, 约1.5%～3.5%的陆地面积将从湿润区变成半干旱或半湿润区。空间分布上, 干旱化趋势明显的区域主要位于西北和东南地区, 同时短期和长期干旱发生次数在这两个地区的增加幅度也最大, 未来干旱化的发生时间也较其他地区要早;只在东北和西南地区未来或有变湿倾向, 但幅度较小。在季节尺度上, 北方地区变干主要发生在暖季, 南方则主要以冷季变干为主。造成中国干旱化的原因主要是由降水与蒸散发所表征的地表可用水量减少。 相似文献
9.
M. Bonell 《Climatic change》1998,39(2-3):215-272
The paper initially outlines selected uncertainties influencing climate change and their linkages with hydrology which have led to only a small section of the hydrological community (divided into 2 groups) being pro-active. Due to the foregoing uncertainties, the strategy adopted in this paper will be to focus on the principal conclusions from controlled experimental catchment studies and related process hydrology connected with land-use change arising from anthropogenic influences. The underlying philosophy is that even major natural disruptions to climate cause ecohydrological shifts in the response of landscapes and such changes may be indicated from recent hydrology research evaluating man-made impacts. The paper assesses the existing conclusions from hydrological work undertaken in both the closed forests of the humid tropics and the open forests of the tropical semi-arid regions based mostly from experimentation in headwater catchments. Such studies are concerned with the hydrological responses to the impacts of forest conversion on the change in total water yield and, in turn, the processes connected with dry weather flow (delayed flow) and storm runoff (quickflow). By taking the above approach, possible hydrological changes to climate change will be inferred, including some consideration given the outputs from atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the Amazon basin as an example. 相似文献
10.
Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Climate plays a crucial role in controlling vegetation distribution and climate change may therefore cause extended changes. A coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model called BIOME4 was modified by redefining the bioclimatic limits of key plant function types on the basis of the regional vegetation–climate relationships in China. Compared to existing natural vegetation distribution, BIOME4 is proven more reliable in simulating the overall vegetation distribution in China. Possible changes in vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios by using the improved model. Simulation results suggest that regional climate change would result in dramatic changes in vegetation distribution. Climate change may increase the areas covered by tropical forests, warm-temperate forests, savannahs/dry woodlands and grasslands/dry shrublands, but decrease the areas occupied by temperate forests, boreal forests, deserts, dry tundra and tundra across China. Most vegetation in east China, specifically the boreal forests and the tropical forests, may shift their boundaries northwards. The tundra and dry tundra on the Tibetan Plateau may be progressively confined to higher elevation. 相似文献
11.
India has 64 Mha under forests, of which 72% are tropical moist deciduous, dry deciduous, and wet evergreen forest. Projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are considered at regional level for India under two scenarios, the first involving greenhouse gas forcing, and the second, sulphate aerosols. Under the former model, a general increase in temperature and rainfall in all regions is indicated. This could potentially result in increased productivity, and shift forest type boundaries along attitudinal and rainfall gradients, with species migrating from lower to higher elevations and the drier forest types being transformed to moister types. The aerosol model, however, indicates a more modest increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in central and northern India, which would considerably stress the forests in these regions.Although India seems to have stabilized the area under forest since 1980, anthropogenic stresses such as livestock pressure, biomass demand for fuelwood and timber, and the fragmented nature of forests will all affect forest response to changing climate. Thus, forest area is unlikely to expand even if climatically suitable, and will probably decrease in parts of northeast India due to extensive shifting cultivation and deforestation. A number of general adaptation measures to climate change are listed. 相似文献
12.
Responses of arid and semiarid watersheds to increasing carbon dioxide and climate change as shown by simulation studies 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to double in the next century causing increased temperatures and decreasing precipitation in some regions of the U.S. The increase in CO2 will also directly affect stomatal conductance of plants. At the first-order watershed scale, changes in evaporative demand, transpiration, and runoff will also occur. Previous modeling studies of the effect of increased CO2 on the water budgets of watersheds have been single-factor exercises where a single parameter representing stomatal conductance was reduced and the results noted. After showing validation results of the hydrology module, we used a comprehensive ecosystem model to examine the consequences of changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2-induced plant-function characteristics on small-basin runoff. As a result of the complex interactions and of the compensatory mechanisms simulated by the model, we conclude that for arid and semiarid watersheds of the western United States, there will be little change or an actual decrease in surface runoff because of increased CO2 and climate change. This is due to the decrease in precipitation imposed on the model simulations. Implementing stomatal closure in the model did not increase runoff from the watersheds when temperatures were increased and precipitation decreased. 相似文献
13.
Anji Seth Sara A. Rauscher Maisa Rojas Alessandra Giannini Suzana J. Camargo 《Climatic change》2011,104(2):403-414
Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased
strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze
coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer
in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual
cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level
and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into
spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms
act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient
increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during
the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes
would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
14.
Water is one of the most critical resources in China. Climate change and soil degradation will be two major, interrelated environmental challenges faced by managers of water resources in coming decades. In this study, we used a water-balance model and updated databases to assess the interacting impacts of climate change and soil degradation on Chinas future water resources. We plotted the spatial pattern of changes in actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficits, and surface runoff across China in the 2020s using a resolution of 0.5° latitude and longitude under scenarios based on climate change, soil degradation, and a combination of the two. The results showed that climate change would affect the magnitude and spatial pattern of water resources on a national scale. Some regions in central, southwestern, and northeastern China would become more vulnerable to disastrous drought and floods as a result of soil degradation. Under the combined impacts of climate change and soil degradation, soil moisture deficits would increase most in central, western, and southwestern China; surface runoff would increase most in southeastern China. More detailed process-based models are needed to capture feedback mechanisms more effectively. 相似文献
15.
Future African Water Resources: Interactions between Soil Degradation and Global Warming 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Johannes J. Feddema 《Climatic change》1999,42(3):561-596
This study uses a well-established water balance methodology to evaluate the relative impact of global warming and soil degradation due to desertification on future African water resources. Using a baseline climatology, a GCM global warming scenario, a newly derived soil water-holding capacity data set, and a worldwide survey of soil degradation between 1950 and 1980, four climate and soil degradation scenarios are created to simulate the potential impact of global warming and soil degradation on African water resources for the 2010–2039 time period. Results indicate that, on a continental scale, the impact of global warming will be significantly greater than the impact of soil degradation. However, when only considering the locations where desertification is an issue (wet and dry climate regions), the potential effects of these two different human impacts on local water resources can be expected to be on the same order of magnitude. Drying associated with global warming is primarily the result of increased water demand (potential evapotranspiration) across the entire continent. While there are small increases in precipitation under global warming conditions, they are inadequate to meet the increased water demand. Soil degradation is most severe in highly populated, wet and dry climate regions and results in decreased water-holding capacities in these locations. This results in increased water surplus conditions during wet seasons when the soil's ability to absorb precipitation is reduced. At the same time, water deficits in these locations increase because of reduced soil water availability in the dry seasons. The net result of the combined scenarios is an intensification and extension of drought conditions during dry seasons. 相似文献
16.
Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
L. Ruby Leung Yun Qian Xindi Bian Warren M. Washington Jongil Han John O. Roads 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):75-113
To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (20 years) and three future(2040–2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper describes the regional simulations and focuses on the hydroclimate conditions in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and Sacramento-San Joaquin River (SSJ) Basin. Results based on global and regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1 to 2.5 °C strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack was about70% as indicated by the regional simulations. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation increased by 5 to 15 mm/day (15–20%) along theCascades and the Sierra. The warming resulted in increased rainfall at the expense of reduced snowfall, and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the CRB, these changes were accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induced higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the CRB and SSJ basin were affected mainly by changes in surface temperature, which were statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, while spatially incoherent, were not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer. Because snow and runoff are highly sensitive tospatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that (1) downscaling provides more realistic estimates of hydrologic impacts in mountainous regions such as the western U.S., and (2) despite relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, changes in snowpack and runoff can be much larger on monthly to seasonal time scales because the effects of temperature and precipitation are integrated over time and space through various surface hydrological and land-atmosphere feedback processes. Although the results reported in this study were derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by a global climate model that displays low climate sensitivity compared with most other models, climate change was found to significantly affect water resources in the western U.S. by the mid twenty-first century. 相似文献
17.
Somnath Baidya Roy 《Climatic change》2011,108(3):609-617
This work explores the dry season micrometeorology of fragmented forests in Amazonia. Numerical simulations with a coupled
atmosphere-vegetation model show that mesoscale moisture transport leads to a significant drying and vegetation stress at
the forest edges. Increased evaporation cannot fully compensate for the drying. Typical convective precipitation events that
occur in the dry season have a localized impact and do not affect the drying trend in the long term. Availability of soil
moisture can partially mitigate the drying effect and consequent vegetation stress. Edge effects can dominate the vegetation
dynamics and fire susceptibility of forest fragments as a whole. Hence, understanding the dynamics and drivers of edge effects
is crucial for understanding the ecology and future of tropical forests in a changing climate. 相似文献
18.
P. J. Crutzen A. C. Delany J. Greenberg P. Haagenson L. Heidt R. Lueb W. Pollock W. Seiler A. Wartburg P. Zimmerman 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1985,2(3):233-256
Field measurement programs in Brazil during the dry seasons in August and September 1979 and 1980 have demonstrated the large importance of the continental tropics in global air chemistry. Many important trace gases are produced in large amounts over the continents. During the dry season, much biomass burning takes place, especially in the cerrado regions, leading to a substantial emission of air pollutants, such as CO, NO
x
, N2O, CH4 and other hydrocarbons. Ozone concentrations are enhanced due to photochemical reactions. The large biogenic organic emissions from tropical forests play an important role in the photochemistry of the atmosphere and explain why CO is present in such high concentrations in the boundary layer of the tropical forest. Carbon monoxide production may represent more than 3% of the net primary productivity of the tropical forests. Ozone concentrations in the boundary layer of the tropical forests indicate strong removal processes. Due to atmospheric supply of NO
x
by lightning, there is probably a large production of O3 in the free troposphere over the Amazon tropical forests. This is transported to the marine-free troposphere and to the forest boundary layer. 相似文献
19.
20.
The Met Office Hadley Centre Unified Model (HadAM3) with the tiled version of the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme (MOSES2) land surface scheme is used to assess the impact of a comprehensive imposed vegetation annual cycle on global climate and hydrology. Two 25-year numerical experiments are completed: the first with structural vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index, LAI, canopy height, canopy water capacity, canopy heat capacity, albedo) held at annual mean values, the second with realistic seasonally varying vegetation characteristics. It is found that the seasonalities of latent heat flux and surface temperature are widely affected. The difference in latent heat flux between experiments is proportional to the difference in LAI. Summer growing season surface temperatures are between 1 and 4 K lower in the phenology experiment over a majority of grid points with a significant vegetation annual cycle. During winter, midlatitude surface temperatures are also cooler due to brighter surface albedo over low LAI surfaces whereas during the dry season in the tropics, characterized by dormant vegetation, surface temperatures are slightly warmer due to reduced transpiration. Precipitation is not as systematically affected as surface temperature by a vegetation annual cycle, but enhanced growing season precipitation rates are seen in regions where the latent heat flux (evaporation) difference is large. Differences between experiments in evapotranspiration, soil moisture storage, the timing of soil thaw, and canopy interception generate regional perturbations to surface and sub-surface runoff annual cycles in the model. 相似文献