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1.
On the basis of data collected during a seismological investigation carried out on Mt. Etna (Italy) during a phase of the volcanic activity marked by progressive transition from Strombolian bursts to effusive paroxysms at the SE crater (January 1990), three types of seismic regime have been recognized. They are interpreted to be linked to modifications in the regimes of volcanic gases and vapours within the upper levels of the magma column, as suggested by recent studies on the dynamics of magmatic fluids. Our analysis also reveals that the use of usual seismic parameters, such as the temporal patterns associated with the occurrence of discrete low-frequency events (“spindles”) and the coefficient m of the Ishimoto-Iida law, can furnish information about variations in the behaviour of the system before the irreversible evolution of the volcanic activity toward eruptive paroxysms.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract

Recent work pertaining to estimating error and accuracies in geomagnetic field modeling is reviewed from a unified viewpoint and illustrated with examples. The formulation of a finite dimensional approximation to the underlying infinite dimensional problem is developed. Central to the formulation is an inner product and norm in the solution space through which a priori information can be brought to bear on the problem. Such information is crucial to estimation of the effects of higher degree fields at the Core-Mantle boundary (CMB) because the behavior of higher degree fields is masked in our measurements by the presence of the field from the Earth's crust. Contributions to the errors in predicting geophysical quantities based on the approximate model are separated into three categories: (1) the usual error from the measurement noise; (2) the error from unmodeled fields, i.e. from sources in the crust, ionosphere, etc.; and (3) the error from truncating to a finite dimensioned solution and prediction space. The combination of the first two is termed low degree error while the third is referred to as truncation error.

The error analysis problem consists of “characterizing” the difference δz = z—z, where z is some quantity depending on the magnetic field and z is the estimate of z resulting from our model. Two approaches are discussed. The method of Confidence Set Inference (CSI) seeks to find an upper bound for |z—?|. Statistical methods, i.e. Bayesian or Stochastic Estimation, seek to estimate E(δz2 ), where E is the expectation value. Estimation of both the truncation error and low degree error is discussed for both approaches. Expressions are found for an upper bound for |δz| and for E(δz2 ). Of particular interest is the computation of the radial field, B., at the CMB for which error estimates are made as examples of the methods. Estimated accuracies of the Gauss coefficients are given for the various methods. In general, the lowest error estimates result when the greatest amount of a priori information is available and, indeed, the estimates for truncation error are completely dependent upon the nature of the a priori information assumed. For the most conservative approach, the error in computing point values of Br at the CMB is unbounded and one must be content with, e.g., averages over some large area. The various assumptions about a priori information are reviewed. Work is needed to extend and develop this information. In particular, information regarding the truncated fields is needed to determine if the pessimistic bounds presently available are realistic or if there is a real physical basis for lower error estimates. Characterization of crustal fields for degree greater than 50 is needed as is more rigorous characterization of the external fields.  相似文献   

3.
For transient, high frequency, and pulse like excitation of structures in the near field of strong earthquakes, the classical design approach based on relative response spectrum and mode superposition may not be conservative. For such excitations, it is more natural to use wave propagation methods. In this paper (Part I), we review several two-dimensional wave propagation models of buildings and show results for theoretical dispersion curves computed for these models. We also estimate the parameters of these models that would correspond to a seven-story reinforced concrete building in Van Nuys, California. Ambient vibration tests data for this building imply vertical shear wave velocity βz=112 m/s and anisotropy factor βx/βz=0.55 for NS vibrations, and βz=88 m/s and βx/βz=1 for EW vibrations. The velocity of shear waves propagating through the slabs is estimated to be about 2000 m/s. In the companion paper (Part II), we estimate phase velocities of vertically and horizontally propagating waves between seven pairs of recording points in the building using recorded response to four earthquakes.  相似文献   

4.
Summary After definitions is given an interpolation-like residual method. —It is pointed out the usual disjoining in two parts of the Bouguer-map to be unsatisfactory; in general is the whole «spectrum» to disjoin in several parts from the «noise» to the «regional». — There are someg zz (andg z) methods represented; in this way of representation are the methods without examples direct comparable.  相似文献   

5.
Load relaxation and cross-head displacement rate-change experiments have been used to establish log10 stress intensity factor (K) versus log10 crack velocity (v) diagrams for double torsion specimens, of synthetic quartz cracked on thea plane in liquid water and moist air.For crack propagation normal toz and normal tor at 20°C,K Ic (the critical stress intensity factor) was found to be 0.852±0.045 MN·m–3/2 and 1.002±0.048 MN·m–3/2, respectively.Subcritical crack growth at velocities from 10–3 m·s–1 to 10–9 m·s–1 at temperatures from 20°C to 80°C is believed to be facilitated by chemical reaction between the siloxane bonds of the quartz and the water or water vapour of the environment (stress corrosion). The slopes, of isotherms in theK-v diagrams are dependent upon crystallographic orientation. The isotherms have a slope of 12±0.6 for cracking normal tor and 19.9±1.7 for cracking normal toz. The activation enthalpy for crack propagation in the former orientation in liquid water at temperatures from 20°C to 80°C is 52.5±3.8 kJ·mole–1.A discussion is presented of the characteristics of theK-v diagrams for quartz.  相似文献   

6.
In a previous publication1 dealing with the lateral seismic response of dams and embankments the authors developed an inhomogeneous shear beam (SB) model in which the modulus increases as a power m of the depth, with m ranging from 0.35 to 0.90 and depending on material and geometric parameters. Reference 1 studied primarily the free vibration characteristics and the distribution of peak seismic displacements in earth dams. This paper focuses on seismic shear strains and stresses, and on seismic coefficients. Both steady-state and transient vibrations are considered and the effects of inhomogeneity are graphically illustrated. A comprehensive comparative study is undertaken using five dam cross-sections, each excited by four recorded accelerograms. It is found that plane-strain finite-element analyses yield distributions of peak values of seismic shear strains which, in general, are in good accord with the results of a ‘consistent’ inhomogeneous SB model. The limitations of the developed model are also elucidated and possible ways of overcoming them are suggested.  相似文献   

7.
Low frequency stochastic variations of the geomagnetic AE-index characterized by 1/fb-like power spectrum (where f is a frequency) are studied. Based on the analysis of experimental data we show that the Bz-component of IMF, velocity of solar wind plasma, and the coupling function of Akasofu are insufficient factors to explain these behaviors of the AE-index together with the 1/fb fluctuations of geomagnetic intensity. The effect of self-organized criticality (SOC) is proposed as an internal mechanism to generate 1/fb fluctuations in the magnetosphere. It is suggested that localized spatially current instabilities, developing in the magnetospheric tail at the initial substorm phase can be considered as SOC avalanches or dynamic clusters, superposition of which leads to the 1/fb fluctuations of macroscopic characteristics in the system. Using the sandpile model of SOC, we undertake numerical modeling of space-localized and global disturbances of magnetospheric current layer. Qualitative conformity between the disturbed dynamics of self-organized critical state of the model and the main phases of real magnetospheric substorm development is demonstrated. It is also shown that power spectrum of sandpile model fluctuations controlled by real solar wind parameters reproduces all distinctive spectral features of the AE fluctuations.  相似文献   

8.
Given the importance that traditional force-based seismic design still currently exhibits, studies addressing issues related to the definition of the behaviour factor values are considered to be of most interest. A probabilistic methodology is proposed for the calibration of the q-factor relating its value with two fundamental parameters, the displacement ductility capacity measured at a relevant location of the structure and the failure probability P f . The general foundation of this procedure is based on the probabilistic quantification of the seismic action and, by applying a transformation procedure, of the structural seismic demand in terms of displacement ductility. By recalling well established structural reliability procedures and by making use of nonlinear analysis methods, both static and dynamic, a general probabilistic framework, which is able to relate the ductility capacity, the failure probability P f and the behaviour factor, is defined. In order to illustrate some of the potentialities of the methodology, an application example is presented, addressing the q-factor assessment for a set of regular and irregular reinforced concrete frame structures, enforcing a given P f and two different ductility levels.  相似文献   

9.
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10.
Inverse dynamo theory seeks to gain information about the motion of a liquid conductor from measurements of the magnetic field in the surrounding vacuum. We consider here a highly simplified model problem, namely a steady α2-dynamo in plane geometry with an α-field varying only in the z-direction normal to the conductor–vacuum interface. Based on perturbation theory about constant-α solutions, we find as many integral conditions on α(z) as modes are present in the vacuum field. This result is corroborated by the complete solution of a special case.  相似文献   

11.
We have combined ∼300 h of tristatic measurements of the field-perpendicular F region ionospheric flow measured overhead at Tromsø by the EISCAT UHF radar, with simultaneous IMP-8 measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) upstream of the Earth’s magnetosphere, in order to examine the response time of the ionospheric flow to changes in the north-south component of the IMF (Bz). In calculating the flow response delay, the time taken by field changes observed by the spacecraft to first effect the ionosphere has been carefully estimated and subtracted from the response time. Two analysis methods have been employed. In the first, the flow data were divided into 2 h-intervals of magnetic local time (MLT) and cross-correlated with the “half-wave rectifier” function V2Bs, where V is the solar wind speed, and Bs is equal to IMF Bz if the latter is negative, and is zero otherwise. Response delays, determined from the time lag of the peak value of the cross-correlation coefficient, were computed versus MLT for both the east-west and north-south components of flow. The combined data set suggests minimum delays at ∼1400 MLT, with increased response times on the nightside. For the 12-h sector centred on 1400 MLT, the weighted average response delay was found to be 1.3 ± 0.8 min, while for the 12-h sector centred on 0200 MLT the weighted average delay was found to increase to 8.8 ± 1.7 min. In the second method we first inspected the IMF data for sharp and enduring (at least ∼5 min) changes in polarity of the north-south component, and then examined concurrent EISCAT flow data to determine the onset time of the corresponding enhancement or decay of the flow. For the case in which the flow response was timed from whichever of the flow components responded first, minimum response delays were again found at ∼1400 MLT, with average delays of 4.8 ± 0.5 min for the 12-h sector centred on 1400 MLT, increasing to 9.2 ± 0.8 min on the nightside. The response delay is thus found to be reasonably small at all local times, but typically ∼6 min longer on the nightside compared with the dayside. In order to make an estimate of the ionospheric information propagation speed implied by these results, we have fitted a simple theoretical curve to the delay data which assumes that information concerning the excitation and decay of flow propagates with constant speed away from some point on the equatorward edge of the dayside open-closed field line boundary, taken to lie at 77° magnetic latitude. For the combined cross-correlation results the best-fit epicentre of information propagation was found to be at 1400 MLT, with an information propagation phase speed of 9.0 km s−1. For the combined event analysis, the best-fit epicentre was also found to be located at 1400 MLT, with a phase speed of 6.8 km s−1.  相似文献   

12.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):142-150
Abstract

Due to its great importance, the availability of long flow records, contemporary as well as older, and the additional historical information of its behaviour, the Nile is an ideal test case for identifying and understanding hydrological behaviours, and for model development. Such behaviours include the long-term persistence, which historically has motivated the discovery of the Hurst phenomenon and has put into question classical statistical results and typical stochastic models. Based on the empirical evidence from the exploration of the Nile flows and on the theoretical insights provided by the principle of maximum entropy, a concept newly employed in hydrological stochastic modelling, an advanced yet simple stochastic methodology is developed. The approach is focused on the prediction of the Nile flow a month ahead, but the methodology is general and can be applied to any type of stochastic prediction. The stochastic methodology is also compared with deterministic approaches, specifically an analogue (local nonlinear chaotic) model and a connectionist (artificial neural network) model based on the same flow record. All models have good performance with the stochastic model outperforming in prediction skills and the analogue model in simplicity. In addition, the stochastic model has other elements of superiority such as the ability to provide long-term simulations and to improve understanding of natural behaviours.  相似文献   

13.
The 1975 sub-terminal activity was characterised by low effusion rates (0.3–0.5 m3 s−1) and the formation of a compound lava field composed of many thousands of flow units. Several boccas were active simultaneously and effusion rates from individual boccas varied from about 10−4 to 0.25 m3s−1. The morphology of lava flows was determined by effusion rate (E): aa flows with well-developed channels and levees formed when E > 2 × 10−3 m3 s−1, small pahoehoe flows formed when 2 × 10−3 m3 s−1 >E > 5 > 10−4 m3 s−1 and pahoehoe toes formed when E < 5 × 10−4 m3 s−1. There was very little variation with time in the effusion temperature, composition or phenocryst content of the lava.New boccas were commonly formed at the fronts of mature lava flows which had either ceased to flow or were moving slowly. These secondary boccas developed when fluid lava in the interior of mature aa flows either found a weakness in the flow front or was exposed by avalanching of the moving flow front. The resulting release of fluid lava was accompanied by either partial drainage of the mature flow or by the formation of a lava tube in the parent flow. The temperature of the lava forming the new bocca decreased with increasing distance from the source bocca (0.035°C m−1). It is demonstrated from the rate of temperature decrease and from theoretical considerations that many of the Etna lavas still contained a substantial proportion of uncooled material in their interior as they came to rest. The formation of secondary boccas is postulated to be one reason why direct measurements of effusion rates tend, in general, to overestimate the total effusion rates of sub-terminal Etna lava fields.  相似文献   

14.
The transient response of a layered structure to plane wave excitation can be considered to be composed of a series of waves and a ground wave. For the case of a half-space of conductivity σ and permeability μ the maximum in the electric field is found at a depth z and time t when t=z2σμ/2. This formula can be used to estimate the depth to a buried horizontal conductor with an accuracy that depends upon the resistive contrast at the conductor's surface. The above ray type of solution can be converted to a solution composed of a number of modes by the use of a Poisson transform and the transformed solutions yield decay constants that are consistent with the previously reported results. In the case of a finite source, the maximum in the electric field is strongly directed. The direction depends upon the geometry of the source and the air-earth interface. Although the maximum varies with direction it can be shown that in some directions similar laws to that above are valid. The depth to a conductor can be estimated from the early part of the transients when the ground wave is removed. The removal of the ground wave from the transient is facilitated by the use of an apparent conductivity formula. Although these results were obtained under restrictive conditions they do provide some insight into the electrical transients that are encountered by studying more complex models.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Abstract Identification of the presence of scaling in the river flow process has been a challenging problem in hydrology. Studies conducted thus far have viewed this problem essentially from a stochastic perspective, because the river flow process has traditionally been assumed to be a result of a very large number of variables. However, recent studies employing nonlinear deterministic and chaotic dynamic concepts have reported that the river flow process could also be the outcome of a deterministic system with only a few dominant variables. In the wake of such reports, a preliminary attempt is made in this study to investigate the type of scaling behaviour in the river flow process (i.e. chaotic or stochastic). The investigation is limited only to temporal scaling. Flow data of three different scales (daily, 5-day and 7-day) observed in each of three rivers in the USA: the Kentucky River in Kentucky, the Merced River in California and the Stillaguamish River in Washington, are analysed. It is assumed that the dynamic behaviour of the river flow process at these individual scales provides clues about the scaling behaviour between these scales. The correlation dimension is used as an indicator to distinguish between chaotic and stochastic behaviours. The results are mixed with regard to the type of flow behaviour at individual scales and, hence, to the type of scaling behaviour, as some data sets show chaotic behaviour while others show stochastic behaviour. They suggest that characterization (chaotic or stochastic) of river flow should be a necessary first step in any scaling study, as it could provide important information on the appropriate approach for data transformation purposes.  相似文献   

16.
Ionospheric F2-layer peak height hmF2 variations, as measured over 1986–1995 by the MU radar (34.85°N, 136.1°E) and as calculated with a theoretical model, are discussed. The diurnal variations of the measured peak height for different seasons and levels of solar activity are compared with those estimated from ionosonde M3000F2 and IRI predictions. Also given are the measured ion drift velocities and meridional neutral winds needed to understand the dynamic behavior of the F2-layer. It is found that: (1) hmF2 is generally higher during periods of the solar maximum than during periods of the solar minimum, and higher in summer than in winter; (2) for the solar maximum, hmF2 drops markedly in the morning and in the afternoon, while, for the solar minimum, the hmF2 minimum occurs in the morning during summer and usually in the afternoon during winter. In general, the measured hmF2 is well reproduced by our model when we use the observed drift velocities and plasma temperatures as inputs. Our modeling study shows that the neutral wind contributes strongly to the diurnal variation of hmF2 in winter by lowering the ionization layer by day, particularly for the solar maximum; it also helps to enlarge the day–night difference of hmF2 in summer. The northward electromagnetic drifts that usually cancel the neutral wind effect have only a minor effect for the location of the MU radar. Other features of the observed hmF2 variations, e.g., the solar maximum–minimum difference, the summer–winter difference, and the morning and afternoon drops, are explained by the basic processes of O+ production, loss and diffusion, as influenced by the atomic oxygen concentration and neutral and plasma temperatures.  相似文献   

17.
Decadal prediction using climate models faces long-standing challenges. While global climate models may reproduce long-term shifts in climate due to external forcing, in the near term, they often fail to accurately simulate interannual climate variability, as well as seasonal variability, wet and dry spells, and persistence, which are essential for water resources management. We developed a new climate-informed K-nearest neighbour (K-NN)-based stochastic modelling approach to capture the long-term trend and variability while replicating intra-annual statistics. The climate-informed K-NN stochastic model utilizes historical data along with climate state information to provide improved simulations of weather for near-term regional projections. Daily precipitation and temperature simulations are based on analogue weather days that belong to years similar to the current year's climate state. The climate-informed K-NN stochastic model is tested using 53 weather stations in the Northeast United States with an evident monotonic trend in annual precipitation. The model is also compared to the original K-NN weather generator and ISIMIP-2b GFDL general circulation model bias-corrected output in a cross-validation mode. Results indicate that the climate-informed K-NN model provides improved simulations for dry and wet regimes, and better uncertainty bounds for annual average precipitation. The model also replicates the within-year rainfall statistics. For the 1961–1970 dry regime, the model captures annual average precipitation and the intra-annual coefficient of variation. For the 2005–2014 wet regime, the model replicates the monotonic trend and daily persistence in precipitation. These improved modelled precipitation time series can be used for accurately simulating near-term streamflow, which in turn can be used for short-term water resources planning and management.  相似文献   

18.
We study an interval of 56 h on January 16 to 18, 1995, during which the GEOTAIL spacecraft traversed the duskside magnetosheath from X ≅ −15 to −40 RE and the EPIC/ICS and EPIC/STICS sensors sporadically detected tens of energetic particle bursts. This interval coincides with the expansion and growth of a great geomagnetic storm. The flux bursts are strongly dependent on the magnetic field orientation. They switch on whenever the Bz component approaches zero (Bz ≅ 0 nT). We strongly suggest a magnetospheric origin for the energetic ions and electrons streaming along these “exodus channels”. The time profiles for energetic protons and “tracer” O+ ions are nearly identical, which suggests a common source. We suggest that the particles leak out of the magnetosphere all the time and that when the magnetosheath magnetic field connects the spacecraft to the magnetotail, they stream away to be observed by the GEOTAIL sensors. The energetic electron fluxes are not observed as commonly as the ions, indicating that their source is more limited in extent. In one case study the magnetosheath magnetic field lines are draped around the magnetopause within the YZ plane and a dispersed structure for peak fluxes of different species is detected and interpreted as evidence for energetic electrons leaking out from the dawn LLBL and then being channelled along the draped magnetic field lines over the magnetopause. Protons leak from the equatorial dusk LLBL and this spatial differentiation between electron and proton sources results in the observed dispersion. A gradient of energetic proton intensities toward the ZGSM= 0 plane is inferred. There is a permanent layer of energetic particles adjacent to the magnetosheath during this interval in which the dominant component of the magnetic field was Bz.  相似文献   

19.
Compared to hydrograph recession analysis, which is widely applied in engineering hydrology, the quantitative assessment of stream salinity with time (i.e. the salinograph) has received significantly less attention. In particular, while in many previous hydrological studies an inverse relationship between hydrograph and salinograph responses is apparent, the concept of salinity accession (the inversely related salinity counterpart to hydrograph recession) has not been introduced nor quantitatively evaluated in previous literature. In this study, we conduct a mathematical analysis of salinograph accession, and determine new quantitative relationships between salinity accession and hydrograph recession parameters. An equation is formulated that reproduces the general trend in salinity accession. A salinity accession parameter kc is then introduced and is shown to be the ratio of direct runoff to total stream flow recession parameters: kr/k. The groundwater recession parameter kg was estimated using a simple and rapid method that uses both salinograph and hydrograph data. Salinity accession type‐curves illustrate that under certain conditions, the relative steepness of individual salinographs is dependent upon the ratio of groundwater salinity to direct runoff salinity: Cg/Cr. The salinity accession algorithms are applied to two contrasting field settings: Scott Creek, South Australia and Sandy Creek, northern Queensland, Australia. It was found that kg > k during periods of obvious stream flow recession, for the events analysed. Salinograph accession behaviour was fairly similar for both sites, despite contrasting environments. Using assumed end‐member salinities for groundwater and direct runoff based upon field observations, the behaviour of kc from the Scott Creek site was approximately reproduced by varying the initial groundwater to runoff flow ratio: Qg0/Qr0, within reasonable parameter ranges. The use of salinograph information when used in addition to standard hydrograph analyses provided useful information on recession characteristics of stream components. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Depth variable vertical eddy diffusion coefficients for heat (K z) were calculated from continuously measured temperature profiles in Überlinger See (western part of Lake Constance). The temperatures were averaged over vertical intervals of 10 m yielding 14 discrete values (maximum depth of Überlinger See: 147 m). A linear fit from 10 June to 29 September 1987 was used to smooth the significant temperature fluctuations caused by internal seiches of Lake Constance.Assuming horizontal homogeneity for the smoothed data the Gradient-Flux-Method was applied to compute vertical diffusion coefficientsK z at different depths using the depth variable volumes and surfaces of the 14 layers. The resulting mean diffusion coefficients for the period from June to September are 0.04 cm2/s near the thermocline and up to 0.8 cm2/s in deeper strata (accuracy: ± 50%). It is shown that horizontal mixing between Überlinger See and Obersee (main lake) alters the computation ofK z by less than 50%.A relationship betweenK z and stability (Brunt-Väisälä) frequencyN is found which corresponds well to the theory of internal wave induced turbulence.Combining the diffusion coefficients with measured phosphorus profiles, a phosphorus flux from the hypolimnion to the epilimnion of (0.7 ± 0.4) mg P m–2 d–1 was calculated, corresponding to about 20% of the average external loading per area of Lake Constance in 1986.  相似文献   

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