共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
The role of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in modulating synoptic and interannual variations of surface winds over the
Indian monsoon region is studied using daily averaged National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses for the period 1987–1996. Two dominant ISOs are found in all years, with a period between
30–60 days and 10–20 days respectively. Although the ISOs themselves explain only about 10–25% of the daily variance, the
spatial structure of variance of the ISOs is found to be nearly identical to that of high frequency activity (synoptic disturbances),
indicating a significant control by the ISOs in determining the synoptic variations. Zonal and meridional propagation characteristics
of the two modes and their interannual variability are studied in detail.
The synoptic structure of the 30–60 day mode is similar in all years and is shown to be intimately related to the strong (‘active’)
or weak (‘break’) phases of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The peak (trough) phase of the mode in the north Bay of
Bengal corresponds to the ‘active’ (‘break’) phase of monsoon strengthening (weakening) the entire large scale monsoon circulation.
The ISOs modulate synoptic activity through the intensification or weakening of the large scale monsoon flow (monsoon trough).
The peak wind anomalies associated with these ISOs could be as large as 30% of the seasonal mean winds in many regions. The
vorticity pattern associated with the 30–60 day mode has a bi-modal meridional structure similar to the one associated with
the seasonal mean winds but with a smaller meridional scale. The spatial structure of the 30–60 day mode is consistent with
fluctuations of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ) between one continental and an equatorial Indian Ocean position. The 10–20
day mode has maximum amplitude in the north Bay of Bengal, where it is comparable to that of the 30–60 day mode. Elsewhere
in the Indian Ocean, this mode is almost always weaker than the 30–60 day mode. In the Bay of Bengal region, the wind curl
anomalies associated with the peak phases of the ISOs could be as large as 50% of the seasonal mean wind curl. Hence, ISOs
in this region could drive significant ISOs in the ocean and might influence the seasonal mean currents in the Bay.
On the interannual time scale, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed wind stress is compared with the Florida State University monthly
mean stress. The seasonal mean stress as well as interannual standard deviation of monthly stress from the two analyses agree
well, indicating absence of any serious systematic bias in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysed winds. It is also found that the composite
structure of the 30–60 day mode is strikingly similar to the dominant mode of interannual variability of the seasonal mean
winds indicating a strong link between the ISOs and the seasonal mean. The ISO influences the seasonal mean and its interannual
variability either through increased/decreased residence time of the TCZ in the continental position or through occurrence
of stronger/weaker active/break spells. Thus, the ISOs seem to modulate all variability in this region from synoptic to interannual
scales. 相似文献
2.
This work is devoted to study of interannual variability of characteristics of Pacific summer waters (PSWs) supplied into
the AO in summer. The distribution area, volume, and heat content of PSWs have been calculated for the first time for the
entire Arctic Basin in the periods of 1950–1989 and 2008–2009 demonstrating the presence of substantial interannual variability.
From 1953 until 1983 a negative trend and since 1984 a positive trend have been observed; the latter lasted until 2009, when
the heat content, volume, and distribution area of PSWs reached their maximal values for the entire period considered. It
has been shown that PSW quantity in the Arctic Basin, identified by temperature, rather depends on the intensity of heat flux
through the Bering Strait, and the calculated value for PSW life in the Arctic Basin is seven years. 相似文献
3.
Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very
heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features
of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing
20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find
out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa.
Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa
in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy
rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low
pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough
extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with
less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It
occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay
followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts
of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS
to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant
trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the
monsoon months and the season as a whole. 相似文献
4.
Space spectral analysis of zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind and time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves at 850 hPa during monsoon 1991 (1st June
1991 to 31st August 1991) for the global belt between equator and 40°N are investigated. Space spectral analysis shows that
long waves (wavenumbers 1 and 2) dominate the energetics of Region 1 (equator to 20°N) while over Region 2 (20°N to 40°N)
the kinetic energy of short waves (wavenumbers 3 to 10) is more than kinetic energy of long waves. It has been found that
kinetic energy of long waves is dominated by zonal component while both (zonal and meridional) the components of wind have
almost equal contribution in the kinetic energy of short waves.
Temporal variations of kinetic energy of wavenumber 2 over Region 1 and Region 2 are almost identical. The correlation matrix
of different time series shows that (i) wavenumber 2 over Regions 1 and 2 might have the same energy source and (ii) there
is a possibility of an exchange of kinetic energy between wavenumber 1 over Region 1 and short waves over Region 2. Wave to
wave interactions indicate that short waves over Region 2 are the common source of kinetic energy to wavenumber 2 over Regions
1 and 2 and wavenumber 1 over Region 1. Time spectral analysis of kinetic energy of zonal waves indicates that wavenumber
1 is dominated by 30–45 day and bi-weekly oscillations while short waves are dominated by weekly and bi-weekly oscillations.
The correlation matrix, wave to wave interaction and time spectral analysis together suggest that short period oscillations
of kinetic energy of wavenumber 1 might be one of the factors causing dominant weekly (5–9 day) and bi-weekly (10–18 day)
oscillations in the kinetic energy of short waves. 相似文献
5.
Analyses of flood disasters were conducted using 1950–2001 data on the flood-damaged areas of cropland, the annual number
of flood disasters and the direct economic losses in Xinjiang. There is an increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang
during the second half of the 20th century, especially since the mid-1980s. Results of a non-parametric Mann–Kendall test
on the cropland-flooded index time series revealed an abrupt change in the mid-1980s. The reasons are discussed with respect
to changes in annual precipitation and regional human activities, by correlating cropland-flooded area to annual precipitation
and three socio-economic parameters (population, cropland area and GDP). The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged
area and the annual precipitation during the periods 1961–1998 and 1987–1998 were substantially higher than during the period
of 1961–1986. The correlation coefficients between the flood-damaged area and the three human activity parameters, however,
were relatively high for the whole period of 1961–1998, but generally not significant for the 1961–1986 and 1987–1998 periods,
separately. These suggest that the occurrence of flood disasters could be mainly induced by local human activities before
the mid-1980s, and thereafter mainly by abnormal precipitation in Xinjiang. Meteorological and hydrological records showed
that the number of heavy rainfall events and the frequency of rainstorm flood disasters increased since the 1980s. In addition,
siltation of reservoirs and loss of flood control structures are partly responsible for the increase of flood-damaged area.
These results suggest that the increasing trend in flood disasters in Xinjiang since the middle 1980s could be attributed,
at least in part, to an increasing trend in annual precipitation. 相似文献
6.
The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during
the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done
using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface
wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is
seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings
of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall
over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry
spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy
rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes
of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present. 相似文献
7.
Phytoplankton seasonal and interannual variability in the Guadiana upper estuary was analyzed during 1996–2005, a period that
encompassed a climatic controlled reduction in river flow that was superimposed on the construction of a dam. Phytoplankton
seasonal patterns revealed an alternation between a persistent light limitation and episodic nutrient limitation. Phytoplankton
succession, with early spring diatom blooms and summer–early fall cyanobacterial blooms, was apparently driven by changes
in nutrients, water temperature, and turbulence, clearly demonstrating the role of river flow and climate variability. Light
intensity in the mixed layer was a prevalent driver of phytoplankton interannual variability, and the increased turbidity
caused by the Alqueva dam construction was linked to pronounced decreases in chlorophyll a concentration, particularly at the start and end of the phytoplankton growing period. Decreases in annual maximum and average
abundances of diatoms, green algae, and cyanobacteria were also detected. Furthermore, chlorophyll a decreases after dam filling and a decrease in turbidity may point to a shift from light limitation towards a more nutrient-limited
mode in the near future. 相似文献
8.
Long and short term relationships between solar wind velocity and geomagnetic field at low latitudes
G. K. Rangarajan 《Journal of Earth System Science》1984,93(4):343-351
Solar wind velocity control of low latitude geomagnetic field both on long and short term basis is studied. It is shown that
semiannual averages of the low latitude field is inversely related to solar wind velocity and that there is a dominant local
time dependence of the relationship. Strongest correlation are confined to the local afternoon hours. It is also shown that
for a duration when the solar wind velocity exhibits significant recurrent pattern the low latitude geomagnetic field also
depicts strong solar synodic rotation periodicity of 27 days with significant coherence with velocity. The low latitude field
on a short term basis is influenced by variable solar wind velocity with a delay of about 1–2 days. During the period of systematic
recurrent pattern in solar wind velocity even the quiet-time night field at equatorial and low latitudes show a strong dependence
on velocity indicative of the solar wind control of the quiet-time proton belt encompassing the earth. 相似文献
9.
The predictability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from pre-season circulation indices is explored from observations during
1939–91. The predictand is the all-India average of June–September precipitation NIR, and the precursors examined are the
latitude position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E in April (L), the pressure tendency April minus January at Darwin (DPT),
March-April-May temperature at six stations in west central India (T6), the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the northeastern
Arabian Sea in May (ASM), SST anomaly in the Arabian Sea in January (ANJ), northern hemisphere temperature anomaly in January–February
(NHT), and Eurasian snow cover in January (SNOW). Monsoon rainfall tends to be enhanced with a more northerly ridge position,
small Darwin pressure tendency, warmer pre-season conditions, and reduced winter snow cover. However, relationships have varied
considerably over the past half-century, with the strongest associations during 1950–80, and a drastic weakening in the 1980s.
Four prediction models were constructed based on stepwise multiple regression, using as predictors combinations of L, DPT,
T6, ASM, and NHT, with 1939–68 as “dependent” dataset, or training period, and 1969–91 as “independent” dataset or verification
period. For the 1969–80 portion of the verification period calculated and observed NIR values agreed closely, with the models
explaining 74–79% of the variance. By contrast, after 1980 predictions deteriorated drastically, with the explained variance
for the 1969–89 time span dropping to 25–31%. The monsoon rainfall of 1990 and 1991 turned out to be again highly predictable
from models based on stepwise multiple regression and linear discriminant analysis and using as input L + DPT or L + DPT +
NHT, and with this encouragement an experimental real-time forecast was issued of the 1992 monsoon rainfall.
These results underline the need for investigations into decadal-scale changes in the general circulation setting and raise
concern for the continued success of seasonal forecasting. 相似文献
10.
The stretched-coordinate ocean general circulation model has been designed to study the observed variability due to wind and
thermodynamic forcings. The model domain extends from 60‡N to 60‡S and cyclically continuous in the longitudinal direction.
The horizontal resolution is 5‡ x 5‡ and 9 discrete vertical levels. First a spin-up experiment has been done with ECMWF-AMIP
1979 January mean fields. The wind stress, ambient atmospheric temperature, evaporation and precipitation have been used in
order to derive mechanical and thermodynamical surface forcings. Next, the experiment has been extended for another 30 years
(3 cycles each of 10 year period) with varying surface boundary conditions (from January 1979 to December 1988 of ECMWF-AMIP
monthly fields for each cycle) along with 120 years extended spin-up control run's results as initial conditions. The results
presented here are for the last 10 years simulations. The preliminary results of this experiment show that the model is capable
of simulating some of the general features and the pattern of interannual variability of the ocean. 相似文献
11.
B. Parthasarathy 《Journal of Earth System Science》1984,93(4):371-385
Analysis of summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall series of 29 subdivisions based on a fixed number of raingauges (306
stations) has been made for the 108-year period 1871–1978 for interannual and long-term variability of the rainfall. Statistical
tests show that the rainfall series of 29 sub-divisions are homogeneous, Gaussian-distributed and do not contain any persistence.
The highest and the lowest normal rainfall of 284 and 26 cm are observed over coastal Karnataka and west Rajasthan sub-divisions
respectively. The interannual variability (range) varies over different sub-divisions, the lowest being 55 and the highest
231% of the normal rainfall, for south Assam and Saurashtra and Kutch sub-divisions respectively. High spatial coherency is
observed between neighbouring sub-divisions; northeast region and northern west and peninsular Indian sub-divisions show oppositic
correlation tendency. Significant change in mean rainfall of six sub-divisions is noticed. Correlogram and spectrum analysis
show the presence of 14-year and QBO cycles in a few sub-divisional rainfall series. 相似文献
12.
Some statistical properties of the summer monsoon seasonal rainfall for India during the last 100 years (1881–1980) are presented.
The most recent decade of 1971–1980 shows the lowest value of standard-decadal average monsoon rainfall (86.40 cm) and is
also characterised by the second highest value of coefficient of variation in monsoon rainfall (12.4 %). The combined last
two standard-decadal period of 1961–1980 was the period of the largest coefficient of variation and the lowest average monsoon
rainfall for India.
The possible influence of global climatic variability on the performance of the monsoon is also examined. Analyses of correlation
coefficient show that a statistically significant positive relationship with a time-lag of about six months exists between
monsoon rainfall and northern hemispheric surface air temperature. A cooler northern hemisphere during January/February leads
to a poor monsoon.
All the major drought years during the last 3 decades had much cooler January/February periods over the northern hemisphere—1972
having the coldest January/February with a temperature departure of −0.94°C and the most disastrous monsoon failure. 相似文献
13.
We present an analysis of the poorly studied UV spectra of the symbiotic Nova PU Vul taken in 1991–1996. The continuum spectral
energy distribution during that period (the nebular phase) can be reproduced by the standard model, which includes radiation
from the hot component and nebula, in contrast to spectra observed in the 1980s, when the hot component of PU Vul was in its
“supergiant” stage. The hot component’s temperature gradually increased from74 000 K (1991) to 100 000 K (1996), and the evolution
of this component reflected by the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram corresponds to theoretical models describing the evolution
of a thermonuclear outburst in the envelope of a white dwarf. Based on our analysis of UV observations of the eclipse in 1993–1994,
we estimate the size of the cool component to have been at least 285R⊙. This confirms earlier suggestions that the cool component of PU Vul belongs to luminosity class II (bright giants) or I
(supergiants), rather than class III (normal giants). Our analysis of Rayleigh scattering of the hot component’s radiation
on atomic hydrogen in the extended atmosphere of the cool component suggests that the mass-loss rate of the cool component
of PU Vul is variable. 相似文献
14.
R. N. Iyengar 《Journal of Earth System Science》1991,100(2):105-126
The usefulness of principal component analysis for understanding the temporal variability of monsoon rainfall is studied.
Monthly rainfall data of Karnataka, spread on 50 stations for a period of 82 years have been analysed for interseasonal and
interannual variabilities. A subset of the above data comprising 10 stations from the coherent west zone of Karnataka has
also been investigated to bring out statistically significant interannual signals in the southwest monsoon rainfall. Conditional
probabilities are proposed for a few above normal/below normal transitions. A sample prediction exercise for June–July using
such a transition probability has been found to be successful. 相似文献
15.
A. Z. Shvidenko D. G. Shchepashchenko E. A. Vaganov A. I. Sukhinin Sh. Sh. Maksyutov I. McCallum I. P. Lakyda 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2011,441(2):1678-1682
Verified estimates of wildfire area and related carbon emissions in territories of Russia are reported for the period of 1998–2010.
It is shown that the average burnt area is estimated to be at 8.23 million hectares per year (uncertainty ±9.0%, confidence
interval 0.9), and carbon emissions—121 Tg C yr−1 (±23%), with a significant interannual variability of these indicators. A quantitative characteristic of fire emissions by
species is reported. Forests are a source of three quarters of all carbon emissions caused by wildfires. A significant acceleration
of fire regimes is expected during the 21st century as a result of climate change in the country. 相似文献
16.
Nityanand Singh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):1-36
Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation
in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm
isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area
(monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered
as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics
of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported.
To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area
and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global
surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere,
April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant
correlation.
A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested
in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges
whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura
(Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724.
Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding
year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May
as independent parameters. 相似文献
17.
Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years
return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel) and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa, Visakhapatnam
and Machilipatnam) in the north Indian Ocean. The wind dataset for Goa is compared with that from ERA-40 data. For higher
wind speeds (12–20m s−1), NCEP wind speed has higher percentage of occurrence than that of ERA-40. Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the
annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with an increase of 1.2 cm s−1 per year and a decreasing trend of −1.3 cm s−1 per year in the case of Goa. The Weibull distribution with shape parameter 2 fits the annual maximum wind data better than
FT-1 distribution. 相似文献
18.
Bijoy Thompson C. Gnanaseelan Anant Parekh P. S. Salvekar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):169-178
The variability in the long-term temperature and sea level over the north Indian Ocean during the period 1958–2000 has been
investigated using an Ocean General Circulation Model, Modular Ocean Model version 4. The model simulated fields are compared
with the sea level observations from tide-gauges, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite, in situ temperature profile observations from WHOI moored buoy and sea surface temperature (SST) observations from DS1, DS3 and DS4
moored buoys. It is seen that the long (6–8 years) warming episodes in the SST over the north Indian Ocean are followed by
short episodes (2–3 years) of cooling. The model temperature and sea level anomaly over the north Indian Ocean show an increasing
trend in the study period. The model thermocline heat content per unit area shows a linear increasing trend (from 1958–2000)
at the rate of 0.0018 × 1011 J/m2 per year for north Indian Ocean. North Indian Ocean sea level anomaly (thermosteric component) also shows a linear increasing
trend of 0.31 mm/year during 1958–2000. 相似文献
19.
Y. Sadhuram 《Journal of Earth System Science》1987,96(1):59-67
Variability in the standard deviation of surface wind direction (σθ), under different Pasquill stability regimes on diurnal, seasonal and interannual scales has been investigated making use
of a 10-year data set collected at Visakhapatnam (17°42′ N., 82° 18′ E) during January, April, August and October for winter,
pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons respectively. The diurnal scale variability in σθ is more pronounced during day time than in night. The seasonal variability in σθ is only moderate around noon while relatively large fluctuations are noticed on inter-annual scale only during day time in
January and August. The seasonal dispersion in σθ decreased from most unstable regime to most stable regime. 相似文献
20.
Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the
all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area,
fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having
similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted
means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This
paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed
to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction.
HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757
mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R
i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive
departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The
decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930
(negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have
been found in HIM rainfall series.
To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between
HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature
over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and
negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to
delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon
signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990.
Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been
developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the
variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i)
Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v)
South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis
(PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain
72% of variance in HIM rainfall. 相似文献