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1.
Increasing Growing-Season Length in Illinois during the 20th Century   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Using daily minimum air-temperature (Tmin) data from the state of Illinois, the dates of spring and fall freezes – and the resulting growing-season length – are examined for trends during theperiod 1906–1997. Of the stations in the Daily Historical Climate Network, mostshow trends toward earlier spring freezes; however, trends in fall freezes are not consistent over the station network. Although the time series are highly variable (noisy), results suggest that the growing-season length in Illinois became roughly one week longer during the 20thcentury. To examine how changing freeze-date statistics relate to changing air-temperature probability distributions, percentiles of Tmin formoving 10-year periods were analyzed for trends during the typical times for spring and fall freezes in Illinois (i.e., the months of April and October). The lower portion of the April probability distribution shows substantially larger warming (0.5–0.7 ° C/100 yrs) than the upper portion of the distribution (0.2–0.3 ° C/100 yrs), suggesting that although cold events are warming during April, warm events are not warming as fast. Conversely, the lower portion of the October probability distribution shows modest cooling in Tmin (–0.2 ° C/100yrs for the 10th percentile), while middle and upper portions of the distribution show very large rates of cooling (up to –1.5 ° C/100 yrs for the 40th–70th percentiles). Analysis ofthe entire probability distribution provides a more-comprehensive perspective on climatic change than does the traditional focus on central tendency.  相似文献   

2.
Proxy data from five farmers; diaries in the Møre, Dovre and Trøndelag regions in central Norway were used for climatic reconstruction purposes. The method chosen was "simple linear regression analysis" with the start of the grain harvest (barley or oats) as predictor and summer temperature (May – August) as predictand. Overlapping periods with modern instrumental observations (starting 1858 or later) were used for calibration of the model. The model was tested on independent data by establishing the regression on one half of the overlapping period and applying the regression on the other half. The standard deviation in the residuals varied from 0.3°C to 0.7°C and the biases of the mean values from –0.3°C to +0.3°C. Climatic reconstructions were established for the early- and mid-nineteenth century summer temperature, i.e. during the last part of what has come to be regarded as the "Little Ice Age", in this article considered to end around 1880.By use of the proxy data model, huge inhomogeneities of the "classical" Trondheim series were detected, the early nineteenth century part of the series evidently being too warm. The inhomogeneity was removed by use of adjustment terms. The adjusted series indicates that in the Trondheim region the summer temperature during the last part of the "Little Ice Age" phase was about 1°C lower than the latest 60 years. This is in serious contradiction to the classical Trondheim series.  相似文献   

3.
Philip Camill 《Climatic change》2005,68(1-2):135-152
Permafrost covers 25% of the land surface in the northern hemisphere, where mean annual ground temperature is less than 0°C. A 1.4–5.8 °C warming by 2100 will likely change the sign of mean annual air and ground temperatures over much of the zones of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in the northern hemisphere, causing widespread permafrost thaw. In this study, I examined rates of discontinuous permafrost thaw in the boreal peatlands of northern Manitoba, Canada, using a combination of tree-ring analyses to document thaw rates from 1941–1991 and direct measurements of permanent benchmarks established in 1995 and resurveyed in 2002. I used instrumented records of mean annual and seasonal air temperatures, mean winter snow depth, and duration of continuous snow pack from climate stations across northern Manitoba to analyze temporal and spatial trends in these variables and their potential impacts on thaw. Permafrost thaw in central Canadian peatlands has accelerated significantly since 1950, concurrent with a significant, late-20th-century average climate warming of +1.32 °C in this region. There were strong seasonal differences in warming in northern Manitoba, with highest rates of warming during winter (+1.39 °C to +1.66 °C) and spring (+0.56 °C to +0.78 °C) at southern climate stations where permafrost thaw was most rapid. Projecting current warming trends to year 2100, I show that trends for north-central Canada are in good agreement with general circulation models, which suggest a 4–8 °C warming at high latitudes. This magnitude of warming will begin to eliminate most of the present range of sporadic and discontinuous permafrost in central Canada by 2100.  相似文献   

4.
Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis of the annual mean surface temperature series for land masses and sea in the northern and southern hemispheres indicated long-term linear warming trends of (0.12 to 0.56) °C/century with superposed significant periods in the ranges T = 5–6 yr, 10–11 yr, 15 yr, 20 yr, 28–32 yr, and 55–80 yr. Extrapolation in future indicated for 2000–2030 a departure of (+0.4 °C) above the 1950–70 level. However, for the 1980s, the observed values are above the expected level, probably indicating large greenhouse effects due to human intervention. In that case, our predictions would be underestimates.  相似文献   

5.
Summary The climatology and variability of summer convection and circulation over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean is investigated using satellite imagery, routine synoptic observations, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, sea surface temperatures (SST) and areal averaged rainfall departures. OLR has a –0.90 correlation with rainfall departures and the OLR minimum (ITCZ) in January and February lies across the 10°S latitude, extending further south near Madagascar. The intensity of ITCZ convection is greatest in the longitudes 20–35°E over northern Zambia and is considerably reduced over the SW Indian Ocean. Spatial correlations are analyzed for standardized departures of OLR, rainfall and SST. The correlations change sign in a coherent fashion, creating a climatic dipole between southern Africa and the SW Indian Ocean. Interannual trends are examined through analysis of January–February zonal and meridional wind indices constructed from significantly correlated variables at Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Mauritius. Circulation variability is dominated by quasi-decadal cycles and a trend of inereasing westerly winds. Zonal wind shear alternates from easterly (barotropic) to westerly and together with SST appears to regulate the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclogenesis. Areally averaged rainfall departures exhibit 6.25 year cycles in NE Madagascar and 12.5 and 18.75 year cycles in SW Madagascar and Zimbabwe, respectively. Summer rainfall and meridional winds in NE Madagascar and Zimbabwe are out of phase and negatively correlated in most summers. The presence of synoptic weather systems is assessed using daily Hovmoller-type satellite imagery composites. Convective structure is dominated by transient waves in the 10°–20°S latitude band, with periods of 15–20 days common. The waves are more prominent in summers with increased easterly shear and contribute to fluctuations in rainfall over SE Africa.With 8 Figures  相似文献   

6.
The more humid, warmer weather pattern predicted for the future is expected to increase the windthrow risk of trees through reduced tree anchorage due to a decrease in soil freezing between late autumn and early spring, i.e during the most windy months of the year. In this context, the present study aimed at calculating how a potential increase of up to 4°C in mean annual temperature might modify the duration of soil frost and the depth of frozen soil in forests and consequently increase the risk of windthrow. The risk was evaluated by combining the simulated critical windspeeds needed to uproot Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) under unfrozen soil conditions with the possible change in the frequency of these winds during the unfrozen period. The evaluation of the impacts of elevated temperature on the frequency of these winds at times of unfrozen and frozen soil conditions was based on monthly wind speed statistics for the years 1961–1990 (Meteorological Yearbooks of Finland, 1961–1990). Frost simulations in a Scots pine stand growing on a moraine sandy soil (height 20 m, stand density 800 stems ha–1) showed that the duration of soil frost will decrease from 4–5 months to 2–3 months per year in southern Finland and from 5–6 months to 4–5 months in northern Finland given a temperature elevation of 4°C. In addition, it could decrease substantially more in the deeper soil layers (40–60 cm) than near the surface (0–20 cm), particularly in southern Finland. Consequently, tree anchorage may lose much of the additional support gained at present from the frozen soil in winter, making Scots pines more liable to windthrow during winter and spring storms. Critical wind-speed simulations showed mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 to be enough to uproot Scots pines under unfrozen soil conditions, i.e. especially slender trees with a high height to breast height diameter ratio (taper of 1:120 and 1:100). In the future, as many as 80% of these mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 would occur during months when the soil is unfrozen in southern Finland, whereas the corresponding proportion at present is about 55%. In northern Finland, the percentage is 40% today and is expected to be 50% in the future. Thus, as the strongest winds usually occur between late autumn and early spring, climate change could increase the loss of standing timber through windthrow, especially in southern Finland.  相似文献   

7.
Seasonal variations of the spectra of wind speed and air temperature in the mesoscale frequency range from 1.3 × 10-4 to 1.5 × 10-3 Hz (10 min to 2 h periods) have been studied through observations over land for one year. Spectrographs [time series of isopleths of spectral densities, f · S(f) vs f] of wind speed and air temperature contain occasional peaks that are attributed to short-lived mesoscale atmospheric activity with narrow frequency bands. Significant spectral peaks of wind speed were found in 19% of the total observations in winter, and in 15–16% in the other seasons; for air temperature, they occured in 12% of observations in autumn, and in 16–19% in the other seasons. The peaks most often occurred in the period range from 30 min to 1 h; most had durations less than 24 h. Mesoscale fluctuations of wind speed and air temperature were highly correlated, and in most cases, phase differences were 90–180 ° with air temperature leading wind speed. Significant spectral peaks of wind speed often occurred during northerly seasonal cold winds in winter, and accompanied tropical and/or mid-latitude cyclones in the other seasons. When the peaks occurred, wind speed was usually relatively high and the atmospheric surface layer was unstable.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Wind direction variation in Lund, s. Sweden is investigated for the period 1740–1992. Around 1860 the initial bidirectional (W—E) continental flow pattern changed to a combined uni- (W) and bi-directional pattern, which has increased the maritimity; in recent decades, an exceptionally high W'ly influence is present. The process toward a higher degree of maritimity has not been a strictly linear one; the 1820's–1830's and the 1940's–1960's are exceptions from this generalization. Trends of declining N'ly and NE'ly winds are accompanied by increased frequencies of SE'ly and SW'ly winds. From the wind direction data, using multiple regression analysis, hindcasting models for temperature and zonality (zonality index P45°N-P65°N in the sector 5° E-40° E) are established for the time when such meteorological observations are unavailable (i.e. before 1860; temperature and before 1899; zonality). The accuracy of monthly zonality index estimations varies betweenR = 0.76–0.93; temperatureR = 0.35–0.80. Models for January temperature and zonality are the most reliable ones. Presence of a very low zonal index in January characterised the mid 18th century (average 4 hPa compared to the current value 10hPa) which resulted in colder winters, according to the January estimate, 1.5 °C colder than present.With 10 Figures  相似文献   

9.
The introductory paper to this special issue of Climatic Change summarizes the results of an array of studies dealing with the reconstruction of climatic trends and anomalies in sixteenth-century Europe and their impact on the natural and the social world. Areas discussed include glacier expansion in the Alps, the frequency of natural hazards (floods in central and southern Europe and storms on the Dutch North Sea coast), the impact of climate deterioration on grain prices and wine production, and finally, witch-hunts.The documentary data used for the reconstruction of seasonal and annual precipitation and temperatures in central Europe (Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic) include narrative sources, several types of proxy data and 32 weather diaries. Results were compared with long-term composite tree ring series and tested statistically by cross-correlating series of indices based on documentary data from the sixteenth century with those of simulated indices based on instrumental series (1901-1960). It was shown that series of indices can be taken as good substitutes for instrumental measurements.A corresponding set of weighted seasonal and annual series of temperature and precipitation indices for central Europe was computed from series of temperature and precipitation indices for Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, the weights being in proportion to the area of each country. The series of central European indices were then used to assess temperature and precipitation anomalies for the 1901-1960 period using transfer functions obtained from instrumental records. The statistical analysis of these series of estimated temperature and precipitation anomalies yielded features which are similar to those obtained from instrumental series.Results show that winter temperatures remained below the 1901-1960 average except in the 1520s and 1550s. Springs fluctuated from 0.3°C to 0.8°C below this average. Summer climate was divided into three periods of almost equal length. The first was characterized by an alternation of cool and warmer seasons. The second interval was 0.3°C warmer and between 5 and 6% drier than in the 1901–1960 period. It is emphasized that this warm period included several cold extremes in contrast to the recent period of warming. Summers from 1560 were 0.4°C colder and 4% more humid. Autumns were 0.7°C colder in the 1510s and 20% wetter in the 1570s. The deterioration of summer climate in the late sixteenth century initiated a second period of enlarged glaciers in this millennium (the first having been in the fourteenth century) which did not end until the late nineteenth century.An analysis of forcing factors (solar, volcanic, ENSO, greenhouse) points only to some volcanic forcing. In order to understand circulation patterns in the sixteenth century in terms of synoptic climatology, proxy information was mapped for a number of anomalous months. Attempts to compare circulation patterns in the sixteenth century with twentieth-century analogues revealed that despite broad agreements in pressure patterns, winters with distinct northeasterly patterns were more frequent in the sixteenth century, whereas the declining summer temperatures from the mid-1560s seem to be associated with a decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging from the Azores' center of action towards continental Europe. The number of severe storms on the Dutch North Sea coast was four times greater in the second half of the century than in the first. A more or less continuous increase in the number of floods over the entire century occurred in Germany and the Czech lands. The Iberian peninsula and the Garonne basin (France) had the greatest number of severe floods in the 1590s.The analysis of the effects of climate on rye prices in four German towns involved a model that included monthly temperatures and precipitation values known to affect grain production. The correlation with rye prices was found significant for the entire century and reached its highest values between 1565 and 1600. From the 1580s to the turn of the century wine production slumped almost simultaneously in four regions over a distance of 800 kilometers (Lake Zurich to western Hungary). This had far-reaching consequences for the Habsburg treasury and promoted a temporary shift in drinking habits from wine to beer. Peasant communities which were suffering large collective damage from the effects of climatic change pressed authorities for the organization of witch-hunts. Seemingly most witches were burnt as scapegoats of climatic change.  相似文献   

10.
It is well known that the magnetic field imbedded in the solar wind modulates the production of cosmogenic isotopes by galactic cosmic rays. Power spectral analysis yields evidence for fundamental periods relevant to this study including the Suess, Gleissberg, Hale and Schwabe cycles of ca. 210, 88, 22 and 11 years lengths. There is increasing evidence for an irradiance component accompanying each of these cycles. Assuming this is valid, we model the magnitude of irradiance change associated with these cycles that is compatible with the paleoclimate record. We conclude that the resultant model fit requires less than ±0.8 change in solar irradiance for each of these cycles even if we assume low climate sensitivity (0.5 °C(Wm–2)). Our solar irradiance model accounts for about 18% of 20th century global warming to 1997 and also predicts that the next maximum would occur in ad 2040 and contribute 0.2 °C to 21st century Northern Hemisphere warming.  相似文献   

11.
Climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20th century   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
Summary Climate data used for climate variability and change analyses, must be homogeneous, to be accurate. The data currently used in the Météo-France homogenization procedure, which does not require computation of regional reference series, was applied to precipitation and average air temperature series in Bulgaria. The Caussinus-Mestre method, with a double-step procedure, was used to detect multiple breaks and outliers in the long-term series of precipitation and average air temperature. A two factor linear model was applied for break correction. The homogenization procedure was run till all or most break risk was gone. Analysis of climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20th century was done on already homogenized precipitation and average air temperature series. The statistical significance of the trends obtained was evaluated by the coefficient of Spearman rank correlation. The variations of annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed an overall decrease. The country has experienced several drought episodes during the 20th century, most notably in the 1940s and 1980s. Seasonal precipitation in spring shows a positive trend at most weather stations across the country. The trend for summer and autumn precipitation is negative. A statistically significant increasing trend of winter precipitation in north Bulgaria was detected. No significant warming trend in the country was found during the last century inspite of the warming observed during the last two decades. Summer in Bulgaria tends to be warmer from the beginning of the 1980s. There is a statistically significant increasing trend of average air temperature during the winter season at the weather stations near the Danube river (north Bulgaria) during the periods 1901–2000 and 1931–2000.  相似文献   

12.
利用山东省122个国家级地面气象观测站的风速数据与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）提供的ERA- Interim再分析数据,采用小波分析、带通滤波等方法对2015年9月—2020年9月山东的大风天气及相应的低频大气环流形势进行分析。结果表明,近几年山东的大风天气有増加的趋势,春季大风发生频次最多,秋季最少;山东半岛东部大风频次最多,鲁南地区最少;全年只有7月偏南大风站次较偏北大风多,其余月份多以偏北大风为主。山东大风具有显著的11~13 d与20~23 d的低频振荡周期。其中,春季大风以11~13 d的振荡周期为主,秋、冬季以20~23 d的振荡周期为主,夏季大风的振荡周期不明显。振荡周期的演变与大范围的大风过程有对应关系,大范围的大风过程大致发生在振荡的波峰处。春季偏北大风盛行时,多伴有经向风自北向南的传播。秋季大约以35°N为界,对流层中高层在35°N以北,经向风自南向北传播,35°N以南,则是自北向南传播,对流层中低层反之。山东春季大风产生之前,乌拉尔山东侧低频气旋与黄海上空低频反气旋同时出现并东移,之后衍生出华北低频反气旋与渤海低频气旋,这两个系统的加强促使华北上空偏北风加大,为山东大风的产生提供了可能。同时,华北地区经向风正距平逐渐被负距平所代替,是山东大风天气产生的又一先兆。  相似文献   

13.
Intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) variation in terrestrial precipitation during 1901–98 was evaluated here by sampling annual precipitation rankings over 6–30 year moving time windows and converting those rankings to Mann-Whitney U statistics. Those U statistics were then used to identify the most significant concentrations of wet and dry years relative to a null hypothesis that assumes stationary climate variability. This time series analysis approach served as the basis of a climate survey method used to identify IMD precipitation regimes over continental areas, and was also used to evaluate IMD variation in time series of annual precipitation spatially averaged over those areas. These methods showed a highly significant incidence of wet years over North America during 1972–98, with 8 of the 10 wettest years of 1901–98 occurring during that 27-year period. A comparably significant incidence of late century wetness was also found over a northern Europe grid region, with 7 of the 10 wettest years occurring during 1978–98. Although significant wet and dry regimes were also found over other land areas in the last decades of the 20th century, the late century North American and northern European wet periods stood out as the most statistically significant found here during 1901–98. It is suggested that these recent wet periods are actually terrestrial evidence of a single multi-decadal precipitation mode extending across the North Atlantic, and the most observable evidence of an even broader pattern of recent North Atlantic climate change.  相似文献   

14.
Summary Using high altitude rocketsonde data for Thumba (8.5 N, 76.9E) and Balasore (21.5 N, 86.9E) and the stratalert messages for high latitudes for the winter (December–March) 1984–1985, an examination has been made to study the perturbations in the temperature and winds in the tropical middle atmosphere and their linkage with the dynamical events occurring over the high-latitude middle atmosphere during that winter.The results of analysis indicated occurrence of strong cooling in the mesosphere over a period of seven days (5–12 December 1984) and the depth of the cooling layer was 15 km. This incident was followed by a strong warming over a period of seven days (12–19 December 1984) and the depth of the warming layer was 13 km. The major warming event, which occurred over high latitudes during the later part of December and the first week of January, was followed by the cooling in the mesosphere and warming in the stratosphere at Thumba. Also the zonal winds were strong easterly and the meridional winds were northerly in the upper stratosphere and the lower mesosphere over tropics during the same period. Weaker zonal winds/stronger easterly winds were generally noticed to be associated with coolings/warmings over tropics.With 7 Figures  相似文献   

15.
An analysis of long-term records ofcorn yields and seasonal weather conditions inIllinois found major temporal shifts and importantspatial variations in the types of seasonal weatherconditions, expressed as the normality of temperatureand rainfall conditions, that create positive andnegative impacts on yields. Nineteen different typesof corn-weather seasons (May–August) occurred during1901–1997, and 9 of these seasons accounted for mostof the high corn yields (top 20 of the 97) and 8seasonal types produced most low yields (lowest 20values). Assessment of the years with either high orlow yields revealed (1) some corn-weather seasonaltypes were uniformly distributed throughout thecentury; (2) others were unevenly time distributed,some occurring only in early decades and others onlyin the last few decades; and (3) certain weather typesvaried regionally. The yield responses to certainseasonal types varied over time, being good early andnot so later, or vice versa. The findings indicatethat time changes in farming practices, cornvarieties, and agricultural technology have alteredhow certain types of growing season weather affectcorn yields. Regional differences in yield outcomesfrom a given set of weather conditions reflect varyingsoil and climate differences across Illinois. Thespatial and temporal differences reveal the importanceof using weather-impact results to define seasonalweather extremes. The kinds of seasons creating highyields predominated during 1901–1910 and 1961–1997,and most seasons creating low yields were concentratedbetween 1911 and 1960. Comparison of the 1901–1997temporal distributions of yield extremes (high andlow) with the temporal distributions of cyclonepassages and the incidence of ENSO conditions thataffect growing season weather conditions revealed agenerally good relationship. The shifting temporalresponses to various kinds of seasonal weatherconditions during the 20th century reveal some ofthe difficulties facing efforts to project realisticand detailed impacts in agriculture from alteredfuture seasonal weather conditions.  相似文献   

16.
Since the 18th century systematic measurements of rainfall have been collected in Italy. The daily rainfall series observed in Milan (1835–2001), Genoa (1833–2000), Bologna (1813–2001) and Palermo (1797–1999) are examples of available long rainfall records. These data series can help analyzing the evolution of precipitation. The present paper deals with long term evolution of: (i) annual rainfall amount; (ii) annual number of rainy events; (iii) intensity of rainfall, (iv) inter-annual rainfall partitioning, i.e. the duration of wet and dry periods, and (v) maximum annual values of daily rainfall amount, duration of wet and dry periods. The evolution is studied analyzing the first two order statistics and the 30-year return period quantiles via moving window analysis. Confidence intervals are introduced to check the statistical significance of the estimated statistics and quantiles. The results are compared with those provided by the traditional Mann-Kendall test. The analysis shows how the annual precipitation exhibits a negative trend in the first half of 20th century, with a subsequent positive trend in northern Italy (Genoa, Milan and Bologna). Conversely, the dataset for Palermo (southern Italy) displays only a negative trend. Because the number of precipitation episodes is found to decrease in the investigated period, the average rain rate is significantly increasing especially in northern Italy. This is also associated with shorter duration of rain episodes with an evident effect on rainfall extremes. Dry periods tend to be longer with increasing variability. The Mann-Kendall test and its progressive form have shown to be well suited for monotonic trend, but the confidence interval analysis, introduced here, is more appropriate if oscillations are significant.  相似文献   

17.
Interannual and interdecadal oscillation patterns in sea level   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
Relative sea-level height (RSLH) data at 213 tide-gauge stations have been analyzed on a monthly and an annual basis to study interannual and interdecadal oscillations, respectively. The main tools of the study are singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and multi-channel SSA (M-SSA). Very-low-frequency variability of RSLH was filtered by SSA to estimate the linear trend at each station. Global sea-level rise, after postglacial rebound corrections, has been found to equal 1.62±0.38 mm/y, by averaging over 175 stations which have a trend consistent with the neighboring ones. We have identified two dominant time scales of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, quasi-biennial and low-frequency, in the RSLH data at almost all stations. However, the amplitudes of both ENSO signals are higher in the equatorial Pacific and along the west coast of North America. RSLH data were interpolated along ocean coasts by latitudinal intervals of 5 or 10 degrees, depending on station density. Interannual variability was then examined by M-SSA in five regions: eastern Pacific (25°S–55°N at 10° resolution), western Pacific (35°S–45°N at 10°), equatorial Pacific (123°E–169°W, 6 stations), eastern Atlantic (30°S, 0°, and 30°N–70°N at 5°) and western Atlantic (50°S–50°N at 10°). Throughout the Pacific, we have found three dominant spatio-temporal oscillatory patterns, associated with time scales of ENSO variability; their periods are 2, 2.5–3 and 4–6 y. In the eastern Pacific, the biennial mode and the 6-y low-frequency mode propagate poleward. There is a southward propagation of low-frequency modes in the western Pacific RSLH, between 35°N and 5°S, but no clear propagation in the latitudes further south. However, equatorward propagation of the biennial signal is very clear in the Southern Hemisphere. In the equatorial Pacific, both the quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial modes at 10°N propagate westward. Strong and weak El Niño years are evident in the sea-level time series reconstructed from the quasi-biennial and low-frequency modes. Interannual variability with periods of 3 and 4–8 y is detected in the Atlantic RSLH data. In the eastern Atlantic region, we have found slow propagation of both modes northward and southward, away from 40–45°N. Interdecadal oscillations were studied using 81 stations with sufficiently long and continuous records. Most of these have variability at 9–13 and some at 18 y. Two significant eigenmode pairs, corresponding to periods of 11.6 and 12.8 y, are found in the eastern and western Atlantic ocean at latitudes 40°N–70°N and 10°N–50°N, respectively.  相似文献   

18.
Summary Data from 306 stations in India, for the 70 years (1901–70) of summer (June–September) monsoonal rainfall, are grouped into 32 sub-regions. Extreme event theory is used to analyse the return periods of extreme rainfall deficits within each of these sub-regions, using the log-Pearson type III frequency distribution in a spatial rather than a temporal context. The resultant estimates for 2, 5 and 10 year return periods are compared with the patterns derived from the Gaussian frequency distribution applied to the 306 stations individually; the 50 and 100 year return period estimates are also considered.
Zusammenfassung Die Daten über den sommerlichen Monsunregen (Juni–September) aus 70 Jahren (1901–70) von 306 Stationen in Indien werden in 32 Teilgebiete gruppiert. Zur Analyse der wiederkehrenden Perioden extremen Regendefizits in jedem dieser Teilgebiete wird die Theorie extremer Ereignisse verwendet, wobei die log-Pearson-Häufigkeitsverteilung vom Typ III eher in einem räumlichen als zeitlichen Zusammenhang verwendet wird. Die sich daraus ergebenden Schätzungen für wiederkehrende Perioden von 2, 5 und 10 Jahren werden mit den Mustern verglichen, die mit Hilfe der auf alle 306 Stationen einzeln angewandten Gaußschen Häufigkeitsverteilung gewonnen wurden. Die Abschätzung 50jähriger und 100jähriger Ereignisse wird ebenfalls besprochen.

With 6 Figures  相似文献   

19.
Summary During the last phase of the Indian Middle Atmosphere Programme everyday launchings of high altitude balloons were carried out at three locations i.e. Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77.5°E), Hyderabad (17.2°N, 78.3°E) and Bhubaneshwar (21.3°N, 85.5°E) for measuring winds and temperature between 1 and 30 km altitude in a campaign mode from 23 January 1989 to 31 March 1989. The data thus obtained have been examined to determine the characteristics of tropical/equatorial waves. Spectral analysis of the time series (68 points) of both zonal and meridional wind components using Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) reveal the presence of waves with periods between 4–30 days.Strong oscillations centered around 5 days and 18 days seem to dominate in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere at all the three stations. While 5 day wave has an amplitude of about 2 m/s, the 18 day wave has an amplitude between 8–10 m/s in the zonal and 5–6 m/s in meridional component around tropopause. Its amplitude is maximum over Hyderabad and decreases somewhat on either side i.e. over Trivandrum and Bhubaneshwar. Weekly rocket wind data from Balasore near Bhubaneshwar show that 18–20 day wave continues to propagate vertically in the altitude range of 30–60 km. Temperature data also exhibits similar oscillations with amplitude of about 1 K for 4–5 day wave and 2–3 K for 18 day wave maximising just above tropopause ( 18 km).It is found that some of the observed wave modes, particularly the 18 day wave have characteristics matching those of forced Rossby wave rather than Kelvin wave while the 5 day and 9 day waves have characteristics matching those of mixed Rossby-gravity waves. The latter may be generated due to convective forcing in the troposphere while the former may be penetrating from the midlatitudes.With 15 Figures  相似文献   

20.
We provide an assessment of surface temperature changes in mountainous areas of the world using a set of climate projections at a 0.5° resolution for two 30-year periods (2040–2069 and 2070–2099), using four Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios and five AOGCM. Projected average temperature changes varied between +3.2 °C (+0.4 °C/per decade) and +2.1 °C (+0.26 °C/per decade) for 2055 and +5.3 °C (+0.48 °C/per decade) and +2.8 °C for 2085 (+0.25 °C/per decade). The temperature is expected to rise by a greater amount in higher northern latitude mountains than in mountains located in temperate and tropical zones. The rate of warming in mountain systems is projected to be two to three times higher than that recorded during the 20th century. The tendency for a greater projected warming in northern latitude mountain systems is consistent across scenarios and is in agreement with observed trends. In light of these projections, warming is considered likely to affect biodiversity (e.g., species extinctions, changes in the composition of assemblages), water resources (e.g., a reduction in the extent of glaciated areas and snow pack), and natural hazards (e.g., floods). Accurate estimate of the effects of climate change in mountain systems is difficult because of uncertainties associated with the climate scenarios and the existence of non-linear feedbacks between impacts.  相似文献   

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