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1.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
2.
This exploratory study contributes to our knowledge about the relationships between interpersonal communication sources and risk perception regarding natural hazards. Survey data (N?=?186) from a small village in northwest China was used, and the correlations between eight types of interpersonal communication sources related to disaster risk reduction and the perceived severity and perceived likelihood of occurrence of eight types of natural hazards were explored. Past studies have suggested that interpersonal communication sources are more likely to influence individuals in their perceived severity of natural hazards than in their perceived likelihood of occurrence. The results of this study moderately corroborate this finding. The results indicated that different sources have different relationships to risk perception, as positive correlations were found between obtaining information via certain trained science professionals (science teachers, emergency responders, scientific experts) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions, while negative relationships were found between obtaining information via certain personal contacts (other villagers and relatives and friends) and certain natural hazard risk perceptions. However, the strength of these relationships was weak (??0.197?≥?r?≤? 0.245). Age showed statically significant correlations with the perceived severity of most of the natural hazards. Studies with more representative samples and controls for theoretical factors are needed to better understand how interpersonal communication sources affect individuals' natural hazard risk perceptions. 相似文献
3.
Tiodora Hadumaon Siagian Purhadi Purhadi Suhartono Suhartono Hamonangan Ritonga 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1603-1617
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia. 相似文献
4.
Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper assesses the socioeconomic consequences of extreme coastal flooding events. Wealth and income impacts associated with different social groups in coastal communities in Israel are estimated. A range of coastal flood hazard zones based on different scenarios are identified. These are superimposed on a composite social vulnerability index to highlight the spatial variation in the socioeconomic structure of those areas exposed to flooding. Economic vulnerability is captured by the exposure of wealth and income. For the former, we correlate the distribution of housing stock at risk with the socioeconomic characteristics of threatened populations. We also estimate the value of residential assets exposed under the different scenarios. For the latter, we calculate the observed change in income distribution of the population under threat of inundation. We interpret the change in income distribution as an indicator of recovery potential. 相似文献
5.
H. Taubenb?ck N. Goseberg G. L?mmel N. Setiadi T. Schlurmann K. Nagel F. Siegert J. Birkmann K.-P. Traub S. Dech V. Keuck F. Lehmann G. Strunz H. Kl��pfel 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):915-945
More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world??s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia. 相似文献
6.
Driving factors for social vulnerability to coastal hazards in Southeast Asia: results from the meta-analysis 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Several decades of research has produced considerable understanding of the complex and interacting factors contributing to
the construction of social vulnerability to natural hazards. However, natural hazards remain a considerable challenge to poverty
reduction and development in many countries around the world and particularly in South and Southeast Asia. The objective of
this paper is to undertake a comprehensive systematic analysis of the scientific literature on coastal hazards to identify
the factors contributing to hazard vulnerability, to determine the relationships between them, and to review recommendations
for vulnerability reduction. With the employment of meta-analysis methodology, 361 social-economic impacting factors to vulnerability
are determined, as well as the complex causal relationship between them. Combined with the analysis on the current popular
recommendations in the literature, some important insights into the gaps between the driving factors and the coping policy
and measures are concluded. 相似文献
7.
Jui-Chin Chang 《GeoJournal》1996,38(3):251-257
Due to the frequent earthquake, steep slope, weak geological formation, erodible soil, and intensive rainfall in summer season, several kinds of natural hazard such as earthquake, typhoon, flooding, landslide and landsubsidence have suffered in Taiwan. Landslide and soil loss are major hazards in mountains and hills while flooding and land subsidence in the alluvial plain and low land by the coast. The magnitude and occurence of each kind of natural hazard are varied according to intensity of process and physical geographic environment. However, the research on natural hazards have been promoted by academic institution and numerous reduction treatments such as dams, dikes have been constructed to mitigate the vulnerability to natural hazards. 相似文献
8.
Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China. 相似文献
9.
The paper introduces a three-dimensional numerical technique to assess typhoon hazards in China coastal regions based on a series of full-set numerical meteorology simulations. The boundary and initial conditions of the simulations are provided by adding pseudorandom fluctuations, which represent the localized, short-term meteorological variations, to synoptic fields, which show the large-scale, long-term meteorological patterns. A series of bogus typhoons are inserted into the initial field to provide the “seeds” from which the artificial typhoons could grow. The initial positions and intensities of the bogus typhoons are drawn from the random variables whose statistics agree with those derived from historical typhoon track data. In the present study, 1503 full-set meteorology simulations of artificial typhoons are conducted. The extreme wind speeds versus return periods calculated from the simulation results are compared to not only the specifications in the load code, but also the results from the previous studies. It is found that the extreme wind speeds in the Pearl-River Delta are, contradicting to the common expectation, higher than at the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait, which imply that the typhoons hitting Guangdong are, on average, more intense than those influencing Fujian. Given the possibility to improve the three-dimensional meteorology model in the future, the simulation technique proposed in the present study provides a novel direction to assess the meteorological hazards, including threads posted by typhoons.
相似文献10.
Naomi W. Lazarus 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):635-648
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters. 相似文献
11.
Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction
of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of
the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely
affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability
on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone
areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to
be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order
to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability
map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements
of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world
“Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about
300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s. 相似文献
12.
浙江省永嘉县区域滑坡灾害人口易损性评价和伤亡风险预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
区域滑坡灾害人口易损性及人口伤亡风险预测研究是区域滑坡灾害预警预报工作的一个重要环节,该研究对提高预警预报工作的针对性和有效性具有关键作用.在对浙江省永嘉县有关资料进行分析的基础上,从研究区人口年龄结构、居民对滑坡灾害风险的防范意识、政府对滑坡灾害的重视程度及滑坡灾害预警预报体系的完善程度4个方面评价了研究区人口易损性,并给出了计算人口易损性的公式,据此得到了永嘉县人口易损性分布图.根据永嘉县的实际情况,提出了耕地人口密度的概念.综合人口易损性分布图、人口密度分布图和滑坡灾害易发性预测图得到了研究区受威胁人口伤亡风险预测图,为当地政府职能部门实施滑坡灾害风险的控制和管理提供决策依据. 相似文献
13.
Environmental hazard from saltwater intrusion in the Laizhou Gulf,Shandong Province of China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Coastal areas play an important role in the socioeconomic development of the coastal zones based on the different land uses.
These regions are vulnerable to hydrogeological hazards and are seriously affected by coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion
in the phreatic aquifer, and sea level rise, which are worsened by human action, thereby increasing the risk of land degradation
in the coastal regions. Saltwater intrusion in the Laizhou Gulf located in northern part of Shandong Province of China was
the main natural hazard. Manmade interventions and actions (i.e., exploitation of aquifers without adequate knowledge of the
hydrology setting and an adequate management program) worsen this natural hazard. Irrational human activity induces environmental
hazard to the overall coastal areas. 相似文献
14.
15.
In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province. 相似文献
16.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
17.
Social vulnerability and seismic risk perception. Case study: the historic center of the Bucharest Municipality/Romania 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Iuliana Armaş 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):397-410
Social vulnerability is as much a part of risk as building damage, hazard magnitude, and economic loss. Social vulnerability refers to the capacity of a human community exposed during the impact of a natural hazard event (in this case, an earthquake)
to resist, cope with, and recover from that impact. In the perspective of the 3rd millennium, we come to understand that the
most efficient and accessible way to reduce the pressure of natural risks is to reduce the vulnerability level of the human
communities exposed to that certain hazard. This study aims to test, in an exposed and vulnerable area, the relationship between
social vulnerability and the perception of the seismic risk. The research focuses only on the first level of social vulnerability,
defined as the ability of an individual within a household to recover from a natural hazard impact (Dwyer et al. 2004). A prevailing assumption was that social vulnerability influences the level of perception of the seismic risk, in an exposed, vulnerable area. To this end, two samples were used, different under the aspect of social vulnerability, in the context of the same residential
area. Social vulnerability was computed as a normalized composed index that includes the poverty ratio and the demographic
vulnerability ratio (depending on the age, gender, and education level indicators). The statistical processing has indicated
a significant difference in the high perception level for the two samples that were compared, in the sense that in the context
of an increased level of social vulnerability, people generally better acknowledge the seismic risk.
相似文献
| Iuliana ArmaşEmail: |
18.
Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km2. The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk. 相似文献
19.
Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies
to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people
are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this
article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how
everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit
the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their
risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health
conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity
and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood
management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen
adaptive capacity to present and future floods. 相似文献
20.
Although the elderly are commonly thought to be disproportionately vulnerable to natural hazards, the elderly populations of coastal communities are continuing to grow. Because there is little to no empirical hazards work specifically addressing the vulnerable elderly in coastal communities, this paper uses Sarasota County, Florida, as a case study to analyze how vulnerable the elderly are to hurricane hazards and whether all elderly people are equally vulnerable. To explore the spatial variations in degree and composition of vulnerability among this population, the analysis maps physical exposure to hurricane storm-surge inundation and precipitation-induced flooding and creates social vulnerability indices by applying principal components analysis to census block group data in a geographic information system. The results show that elderly inhabitants of barrier islands face a considerable physical threat from hurricane-induced storm surge and flooding but are less socially vulnerable because of their wealth; the elderly living inland are far less physically vulnerable but are poorer and consequently demonstrate high socioeconomic sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity to these hurricane hazards. The paper concludes that the elderly are not equally vulnerable: there are many different types of elderly living in many different locations, and their vulnerability varies by type and over space. Effective vulnerability reduction measures should account for these differences between the elderly populations. 相似文献