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1.
We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.  相似文献   

2.
中国东海、南海等近海临近琉球海沟、马尼拉海沟等俯冲带,地震频发。过去的海啸研究主要关注历史文献分析、海啸数值模拟等,据此评估中国近岸海啸灾害的历史和风险。历史时期是否引发了海啸,特别是具有特大致灾风险的大海啸记录,目前还不明确。近年来,本课题组通过对海岛、海洋沉积和海岸带及其岛屿的沉积过程、海啸遗迹和历史记录研究,阐述了确定古海啸的系列研究方法。首先通过对南海西沙群岛东岛湖泊沉积序列、大量砗磲和珊瑚块在海岛分布的特征分析,识别出距今千年的一次海啸事件。以此为标志,根据湖泊沉积结构作为识别海岛海啸沉积的特征。同时提出了确定海岛海啸发生时代的样品采集和定年方法,其中包括根据事件沉积层顶部和底部植物残体14C年龄定年和历史文献记录的印证。首次确定在过去1 300年中,南海发生过一次海啸,其发生时间为公元1076年。为了寻找更古老的海啸记录,结合对东海闽浙沿岸过去两千年海洋泥质沉积的分析,发现南海海啸在沉积序列中留下记录,但除此之外沉积记录中并无更强的扰动,因此东海在过去两千年中受到海啸的影响较小。1076年的海啸同时冲击了南海沿岸,通过对广东南澳岛考察发现,岛屿东南海岸保存着距今约1 000年的海啸沉积层,其中夹杂着宋代陶器瓷器残片。对遗迹数量变化的分析显示,岛上的文化受海啸破坏出现了长达500年的文化中断,直至明代中后期设镇之后才逐渐恢复。根据海啸层植物残体、贝壳14C测年、覆盖海啸层的海砂光释光定年以及瓷器碎片的年代鉴定了海啸的发生时代,并据此提出了海岸带古海啸沉积的定年方法。此外,不同环境下海啸沉积的特征也存在较大区别,需要结合地形、沉积物来源以及地球化学特征等多种指标进行识别。有迹象表明海南岛东侧海岸带有海啸破坏的明显证据,需要进行深入的研究。  相似文献   

3.
Pelinovsky  Efim  Kharif  Christian  Riabov  Igor  Francius  Marc 《Natural Hazards》2002,25(2):135-159
The problem of tsunami-risk for the French coast of the Mediterraneanis discussed. Historical data of tsunami manifestation on the French coast are described and analysed.Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Ligurian Sea is done and the tsunami wave heightdistribution along the French coast is calculated. For the earthquake magnitude 6.8 (typical value forMediterranean) the tsunami phenomenon has a very local character. It is shown that the tsunami tide-gaugerecords in the vicinity of Cannes–Imperia present irregularoscillations with characteristic periodof 20–30 min and total duration of 10–20h.Tsunami propagating from the Ligurian sea to the west coastof France have significantly lesser amplitudes and they are more low-frequency (period of 40–50min).The effect of far tsunamis generated in the southern Italy and Algerian coast is studied also, thedistribution of the amplitudes along the French coast for far tsunamis is more uniform.  相似文献   

4.
The Pacific coast, including the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kuriles, the Sea of Japan, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea, is the main tsunami-prone area in Russia. The Far East tsunamis are much more frequent, extensive, and devastating than those in the Black, Caspian, Baltic, and White Sea coasts, as well as in major inland lakes of Baikal, Ladoga, etc. The tsunami catalog of the Russian Far East from 1737 to present lists 110 events with mainly near-field and few far-field sources (105 and 5 events, respectively). Most of the catalogued tsunamis (95 cases) were induced by earthquakes, and few events had volcanic (3), landsliding (2), meteorological (3), and unknown (2) triggers. Altogether there were eleven devastating tsunamis for the period of observations, with > 10 m heights, two of which were great events in 1737 and 1952, when the waves exceeded 20 m. The wave heights were in the range 2.5-10 m in fifteen hazardous tsunami events and within the tidal range (~ 1-2 m) in thirteen cases; the other events were small and detectable only instrumentally. Thus, the average recurrence times for tsunamis of different magnitudes in the Russian Pacific coast are 25 years for devastating events and 10-15 years for hazardous tsunamis; small tsunamis occur almost every year, according to statistics for the last sixty years collected at the regional network of tide stations. The topics discussed in the paper concern the completeness and reliability of the Far East catalog; distribution of tsunami events in space and time; correlation between the intensity of tsunami and the magnitude of the causative undersea earthquake; tsunami recurrence; tsunami warning; and long-term hazard assessment and mapping.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
Historical tsunami records in the South China Sea are collected and analyzed in this paper. There have been about 54 tsunamis in the South China Sea since 1076. The impacts of the transoceanic tsunamis on the southeast coast of China are weak. However, the regional tsunamis in the South China Sea bring varying degrees of influence to the south coast of China, which occurred about 18 times. By the analysis of the potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea, numerical simulations of tsunami induced in the Manila Trench are carried out. It is found that the tsunami wave height is small near Haikou if the general earthquake tsunami occurred. But the tsunami wave height is large when a giant earthquake of M9.3 occurred. If this extreme situation arises, the impacts to the coast of Haikou will be serious.  相似文献   

7.
A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10−3 and 2.7 × 10−3 events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10−3 within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.  相似文献   

8.
A method for the evaluation of tsunami potential in the seas surrounding Italy is presented. A major difficulty for performing reliable estimates of tsunami occurrence is that the existing tsunami catalog for Italy includes a small number of cases. This is due partly to the catalog incompleteness, strangely more pronounced in our century, and partly to the relative infrequency of tsunamis along the Italian seas. Evaluation of tsunami activity is therefore deduced by complementing the tsunami catalog data with data on seismicity that are by far more abundant and reliable. Analysis of seismicity and assessment of earthquake rate in coastal and submarine regions form the basis of the present method to perform tsunami potential estimates for Italy. One essential limitation of the method is that only tsunamis of seismic origin are taken into account, which leads to an underestimation of the tsunami potential. Since tsunamis generated by earthquakes are much more frequent than events produced by slumps or volcanic eruptions, the underestimation is not dramatic and very likely affects only a limited portion of the Italian coasts. In the present application of the method, eight separate regions have been considered that together cover all the coasts of Italy. In each region, seismicity has been independently examined and the earthquake potential has been calculated in small 20 × 20 cells. Then, on the basis of suitable assumptions, tsunami potential has been evaluated in each cell. According to this study, the Italian coasts that are the most exposed to the attacks of locally generated tsunamis are to be found in the Messina Straits, in Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria, in the Ionian Sicilian coasts around Catania, and in the Gargano promontory in the Southern Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, this study confirms that the Northern Adriatic Sea has a low level of tsunami potential, in agreement with recent studies emphasizing that the large historical events concerning this region included in the first versions of the Italian tsunami catalog are largely overestimated and must be decreased.  相似文献   

9.
Prognostic characteristics of tsunamis in the East (Japan) Sea based on numerical simulations are investigated by using linear long wave theory. Due to the lack of observed data, the concept of the synthetic catalogue is applied to generate possible tsunami scenarios. It includes four real events that occurred in the East (Japan) Sea during the 20th century, 24 hypothetical tsunamigenic earthquakes located in the gap zones of the seismic map, and 76 idealized model ‘hydrodynamic’ sources covering the eastern part of the East (Japan) Sea uniformly. The tsunami wave height distributions along the East (Japan) Sea coastline due to these hypothetical events are computed. From the geographical distributions of tsunami wave height for all possible events, it is found that there exist several coastal locations where the tsunami risk is relatively lower than in other zones. The relation between the maximal value of the tsunami height and its average value is analyzed. It is found that the maximal tsunami height does not exceed the mean wave height times a constant. The uniform bounded curve for all areas can be obtained if the mean wave height is replaced by the modified mean wave height (1/3 of largest waves). The problem of quantitative definition of the prognostic tsunami wave height for each location based on the data from the synthetic catalogue is discussed. The results of tsunami wave height analysis based on the synthetic catalogue can be used as a tool for coastal disaster mitigation planning.  相似文献   

10.
The first 7 years of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) have had a significant positive impact on operations of the Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). As a result of its seismic project, the amount and quality of real-time seismic data flowing into PTWC has increased dramatically, enabling more rapid, accurate, and detailed analyses of seismic events with tsunamigenic potential. Its tsunameter project is now providing real-time tsunameter data from seven strategic locations in the deep ocean to more accurately measure tsunami waves as they propagate from likely source regions toward shorelines at risk. These data have already been used operationally to help evaluate potential tsunami threats. A new type of tsunami run-up gauge has been deployed in Hawaii to more rapidly assess local tsunamis. Lastly, numerical modeling of tsunamis done with support from the NTHMP is beginning to provide tools for real-time tsunami forecasting that should reduce the incidence of unnecessary warnings and provide more accurate forecasts for destructive tsunamis.  相似文献   

11.
The potential impacts of tsunamis along the Catalan Coast (NW Mediterranean) are analysed using numerical modelling. The region is characterized by moderate to low seismic activity and by moderate- to low-magnitude earthquakes. However, the occurrence of historical strong earthquakes and the location of several active offshore faults in front of the coast suggest that the possibility of an earthquake-triggered tsunami is not negligible although of low probability. Up to five faults have been identified to generate tsunamis, being the highest associated possible seismic magnitudes of up to 7.6. Coastal flooding and port agitation are characterized using the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis approach. The results show a multiple fault source contribution to tsunami hazard. The shelf dimensions and the existence of submerged canyons control the tsunami propagation. In wide shelves, waves travelling offshore may become trapped by refraction causing the wave energy to reach the coastline at some distance from the origin. The free surface water elevation increases at the head of the canyons due to the sharp depth gradients. The effects of potential tsunamis would be very harmful in low-lying coastal stretches, such as deltas, with a high population concentration, assets and infrastructures. The Ebro delta appears to be the most exposed coast, and about the 20% of the delta surface is prone to flooding due to its extremely low-lying nature. The activity at Barcelona port will be severely affected by inflow backflow current at the entrance of up to 2 m/s.  相似文献   

12.
Numerical Simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico Tsunami   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Mercado  A.  McCann  W. 《Natural Hazards》1998,18(1):57-76
The Caribbean Sea region is well known for its hurricanes, and less known for tsunamis. As part of its responsibilities in hazard assessment and mitigation, the U.S.A. Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Puerto Rico Civil Defense, funded a pilot study to perform a numerical simulation of the 1918 Puerto Rico tsunami, one of the most deadly in the region. As part of the study a review has been made of the tectonic and tsunamigenic environment around Puerto Rico, the fault parameters for the 1918 event have been estimated, and a numerical simulation has been done using a tsunami propagation and runup model obtained through the Tsunami Inundation Modeling for Exchange (TIME) program. Model results have been compared with the observed runup values all along the west coast of Puerto Rico.  相似文献   

13.
The 1945 Tsunami generated due to Makran Earthquake in the Arabian Sea was the most devastating tsunami in the history of the Arabian Sea and caused severe damage to property and loss of life. It occurred on 28th November 1945, 21:56 UTC (03:26 IST) with a magnitude of 8.0 (M w), originating off the Makran Coast of Pakistan in the Arabian Sea. It has impacted as far as Mumbai in India and was noticed up to Karvar Coast, Karnataka. More than 4,000 people were killed as a result of the earthquake and the tsunami. In this paper an attempt is made for a numerical simulation of the tsunami generation from the source, its propagation into the Arabian Sea and its effect on the western coast of India through the use of a numerical model, referred to as Tunami-N2. The present simulation is carried out for a duration of 300 min. It is observed from the results that the simulated arrival time of tsunami waves at the western coast of India is in good agreement with the available data sources. The paper also presents run-up elevation maps prepared using Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data, showing the possible area of inundation due to various wave heights along different parts of the Gujarat Coast. Thus, these results will be useful in planning the protection measures against inundation due to tsunami and in the implementation of a warning system.  相似文献   

14.
Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.  相似文献   

15.
Among the coastal districts of mega city Istanbul, Bakirkoy is one of the most critical one with the importance of air and marine transportation and presence of many other coastal facilities and structures that are prone to suffer from marine hazards. In the history, the Sea of Marmara has experienced numerous earthquake and landslide events and associated tsunamis. Therefore, tsunami risk assessment is essential for all coastal districts of Istanbul, including Bakirkoy district. In this study, a further developed methodology for tsunami human vulnerability and risk assessment Metropolitan Tsunami Human Vulnerability Assessment (MeTHuVA) is applied for Bakirkoy district of Istanbul, considering earthquake generated tsunamis. High-resolution tsunami hazard analysis is performed with the integration of coastal inundation computation with tsunami numerical tool NAMI DANCE and tsunami human vulnerability assessment with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis methods (MCDA). Using analytical hierarchy process method of MCDA, a hierarchical structure is established, composed of two main elements of tsunami human vulnerability: Vulnerability at Location and Evacuation Resilience. Tsunami risk assessment for Bakirkoy district is calculated by integrating result of hazard and vulnerability assessments with a risk relation that includes a parameter (n), which represents the preparedness and awareness level of the community. Tsunami simulations revealed that the maximum inundation distance is over 350 m on land and water penetrates almost 1700 m along Ayamama stream. Inundation is observed in eleven neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district. In the inundation zone, maximum flow depth is found to be over 5.7 m. The inundated area forms 4.2% of whole Bakirkoy district, and 62 buildings are located in the inundation zone. Hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment results for different neighborhoods of Bakirkoy district are presented and discussed.  相似文献   

16.
This paper discusses the applications of linear and nonlinear shallow water wave equations in practical tsunami simulations. We verify which hydrodynamic theory would be most appropriate for different ocean depths. The linear and nonlinear shallow water wave equations in describing tsunami wave propagation are compared for the China Sea. There is a critical zone between 400 and 500 m depth for employing linear and nonlinear models. Furthermore, the bottom frictional term exerts a noticeable influence on the propagation of the nonlinear waves in shallow water. We also apply different models based on these characteristics for forecasting potential seismogenic tsunamis along the Chinese coast. Our results indicate that tsunami waves can be modeled with linear theory with enough accuracy in South China Sea, but the nonlinear terms should not be neglected in the eastern China Sea region.  相似文献   

17.
The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).  相似文献   

18.
According to the old documents, two historic tsunamis of volcanic origin attacked Hokkaido, northern Japan. They are the 1640 Komagatake event which killed more than 700 people and the 1741 Oshima-Ohshima event which killed 1467 people. In order to obtain more information of these old tsunami disasters, we studied onshore tsunami deposits associated with these events. Tsunami deposits are identified by their sedimentary structure and granulometric characteristics. We traced the 1640 and 1741 tsunami deposits showing similar features at outcrops, by making pits or trenches. Minimum runup heights of these historic tsunamis were revealed by these tsunami deposit distributions. Trench survey is one of the best way to find and study onshore paleo-tsunami deposit  相似文献   

19.
The major earthquake measuring 8.1 on the Richter scale which struck the west coast of Mexico on Thursday 19 September 1985, generated a small tsunami. A major aftershock on 21 September, with a magnitude of 7.5 also produced a small tsunami. Both tsunamis propagated across the Pacific and were recorded by several tide stations in Central America, Colombia, Ecuador, French Polynesia, Samoa, and Hawaii. No reports of damage were received from any of the stations, and only minor damage due to the first tsunami was reported from the source region.A survey was made by the International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) of the coastal area affected, from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo. Tsunami runup measurements were taken and interviews with local residents in the coastal areas were conducted.A source mechanism study of the tsunamis was undertaken using seismic and geologic data and empirical relationships. Earthquake and tsunami energies were estimated and the tsunami genertion areas defined.The earthquake energies were estimated to be 5.61 × 1024 erg for the 19 September event and 9.9 × 1023 erg for the 21 September event. Tsunami energies were estimated to be 0.7 × 1020 erg for the first event and 0.56 × 1020 erg for the second event. The source area of the first tsunami was determined to be approximately one-half of the earthquake source area, or approximately 7500 km2, while the source area of the second tsunami was estimated to be equal to the earthquake area.The relatively small tsunamis generated by these large earthquakes are attributed to the shallow angle of subduction of the Cocos plate underneath the North American plate for this particular region, and to the small vertical component of crustal displacements. However, the angle of subduction increases further south and local earthquakes from that area have the potential of producing large tsunamis on the west coast of Mexico.This paper was presented at the 4th International Symposium on Natural and Man-made Coastal Hazards held in Ensenada, Mexico, August 1988.  相似文献   

20.
Choi  Byung-Ho  Cho  Yong-Sik  Yoon  Sung Bum 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(2):437-454
The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decades have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis and has sustained tsunami damage in the past. The aim of this study is to review the past, present, and future of some aspects of tsunami research in Korea. A composite numerical model comprising propagation and inundation models is described. The paper also covers tsunami mitigation efforts in Korea, and a tsunami hazard map is developed and introduced.  相似文献   

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