共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation. 相似文献
2.
Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays,
Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact
of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the
risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level
rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory
issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore,
geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate
the economic losses. 相似文献
3.
Probability-weighted hazard maps for comparing different flood risk management strategies: a case study 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
Giuliano Di Baldassarre Attilio Castellarin Alberto Montanari Armando Brath 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(3):479-496
The study proposes an original methodology for producing probability-weighted hazard maps based on an ensemble of numerical
simulations. These maps enable one to compare different strategies for flood risk management. The methodology was applied
over a 270-km2 flood-prone area close to the left levee system of a 28-km reach of the river Reno (Northern Central Italy). This reach is
characterised by the presence of a weir that allows controlled flooding of a large flood-prone area during major events. The
proposed probability-weighted hazard maps can be used to evaluate how a structural measure such as the mentioned weir alters
the spatial variability of flood hazard in the study area. This article shows an application by constructing two different
flood hazard maps: a first one which neglects the presence of the weir using a regular levee system instead, and a second
one that reflects the actual geometry with the weir. Flood hazard maps were generated by combining the results of several
inundation scenarios, simulated by coupling 1D- and 2D-hydrodynamic models. 相似文献
4.
Pablo Fraile-Jurado José I. Álvarez-Francoso Emilia Guisado-Pintado Noela Sánchez-Carnero José Ojeda-Zújar Stephen P. Leatherman 《Natural Hazards》2017,87(2):581-598
Global sea levels have risen through the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This rise will almost certainly continue and probably accelerate during the rest of the twenty-first century, albeit there is strong disagreement about the range of future sea level rise due to uncertainties regarding scenarios and emission of greenhouse gasses. Although the impacts of sea level rise are diverse, inundation during high tides is one of the most obvious and immediate consequences. A probabilistic methodology for mapping the inundation hazard because of sea level rise has been applied to the coast of El Puerto de Santa María in the province of Cádiz in southwest Spain. This methodology involves a step forward since represents the full range of probabilities, associated with each scenario of sea level rise considered, and thus offers a more realistic view of the probability of inundation in each area. Results show large differences in the spatial distribution of probable inundation in urban areas and wetlands leading to different consequences for management actions. 相似文献
5.
Mohammad Karamouz Ali Razmi Sara Nazif Zahra Zahmatkesh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(11):395
Due to increasing flood severities and frequencies, studies on coastal vulnerability assessment are of increasing concern. Evaluation of flood inundation depth and extent is the first issue in flood vulnerability analysis. This study has proposed a practical framework for reliable coastal floodplain delineation considering both inland and coastal flooding. New York City (NYC) has been considered as the case study because of its vulnerability to storm surge-induced hazards. For floodplain delineation, a distributed hydrologic model is used. In the proposed method, the severities of combined inland and coastal floods for different recurrence intervals are determined. Through analyzing past storms in the study region, a referenced (base) configuration of rainfall and storm surge is selected to be used for defining flood scenarios with different return periods. The inundated areas are determined under different flooding scenarios. The inundation maps of 2012 superstorm Sandy in NYC is simulated and compared with the FEMA revised maps which shows a close agreement. This methodology could be of significant value to the planners and engineers working on the preparedness of coastal urban communities against storms by providing a platform for updating inundation maps as new events are observed and new information becomes available. 相似文献
6.
A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies. 相似文献
7.
Huangpu River floodplain is historically vulnerable to flooding due to its location in the path of tropical cyclones, low elevation, relatively flat topography, rapid changes in sea level and fast rate of land subsidence due to urbanization. This paper presents a scenario-based study that investigates the fluvial flood potentials in the Huangpu River floodplain. Flood scenarios with return periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years were designed to cover the probable situations. Further, a flood inundation model (FloodMap) that tightly couples a river flow model with a 1D solution of the full form of the St. Venant equations and a 2D floodplain flow model was used to predict the river flow and inundation extents. Flood characteristics obtained from the simulations were used in the exposure analysis to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible land uses under different scenarios. Results suggest that overtopping inundation mainly occurs within 1–2 km of the banks of the Huangpu River, with larger inundation extent predicted in the upper and middle reaches of the channel, a result of varying protection levels from relatively rural upstream to high urbanized floodplain in the vicinity of the middle reaches. 相似文献
8.
The frequency in occurrence and severity of floods has increased globally. However, many regions around the globe, especially in developing countries, lack the necessary field monitoring data to characterize flood hazard risk. This paper puts forward methodology for developing flood hazard maps that define flood hazard risk, using a remote sensing and GIS-based flood hazard index (FHI), for the Nyamwamba watershed in western Uganda. The FHI was compiled using analytical hierarchy process and considered slope, flow accumulation, drainage network density, distance from drainage channel, geology, land use/cover and rainfall intensity as the flood causative factors. These factors were derived from Landsat, SRTM and PERSIANN remote sensing data products, except for geology that requires field data. The resultant composite FHI yielded a flood hazard map pointing out that over 11 and 18% of the study area was very highly and highly susceptible to flooding, respectively, while the remaining area ranged from medium to very low risk. The resulting flood hazard map was further verified using inundation area of a historical flood event in the study area. The proposed methodology was effective in producing a flood hazard map at the watershed local scale, in a data-scarce region, useful in devising flood mitigation measures. 相似文献
9.
Existing methods of evaluating the hazard posed by moraine-dammed lakes are unsystematic, subjective, and depend on the expertise
and biases of the geoscientist. In this paper, we provide a framework for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst
flood hazard in southwestern British Columbia. Our procedure relies on remote sensing methods and requires only limited knowledge
of glacial processes so that evaluations of outburst flood hazard can be incorporated into routine hazard assessments of glaciated
regions. We describe objective approaches, which incorporate existing empirical relations applicable to the study region,
for estimating outburst peak discharge, maximum volume, maximum travel distance, maximum area of inundation, and probability.
Outburst flood hazard is greatest for moderately large lakes that are impounded by large, narrow, ice-free moraine dams composed
of sedimentary rock debris and drain into steep, sediment-filled gullies above major river valleys. We demonstrate the application
of the procedure using three case studies and show that flood hazard varies, especially with major changes in lake level.
Our assessment scheme yields reproducible results and enables engineers and geoscientists to prioritize potentially hazardous
lakes for more detailed field investigation. 相似文献
10.
In the tropical and subtropical wet and dry regions, maintaining natural hydrologic connections between coastal rivers and adjacent ephemeral wetlands is critical to conserving and sustaining high levels of fisheries production within these systems. Though there is a consensus that there is a need to maintain these natural connections, little is known about what attributes of floodplain inundation regimes are most important in sustaining fisheries production. Two attributes of the flood season and thus floodplain inundation that may be particularly influential to fisheries are the amplitude of the flood season (floodplain water depth and spatial extent of inundation) and the duration of the flood season (i.e., time floodplains are inundated). In mangrove-dominated Everglades coastal rivers, seasonal inundation of upstream marsh floodplains may play an important role in provisioning recreational fisheries; however, this relationship remains unknown. Using two Everglades coastal river fisheries as a model, we tested whether the amplitude of the flood season or the duration of the flood season is more important in explaining variation in angler catch records of common snook and largemouth bass collected from 1992 to 2012. We validated angler catches with fisheries-independent electrofishing conducted in the same region from 2004 to 2012. Our results showed (1) that bass angler catches tracked electrofishing catches, while snook catches were completely mismatched. And (2) that previous year's marsh dynamics, particularly the duration of the flood season, was more influential than the flood season amplitude in explaining variation in bass catches, such that bass angler catches were negatively correlated to the period time that floodplains remained disconnected from coastal rivers in the previous year, while snook catches were not very well explained by floodplain inundation terms. 相似文献
11.
近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少，河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整，河道蓄泄关系发生变化，对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上，对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下，遇1954年洪水，长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明，未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷，河道槽蓄容积增加，相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大，三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大，总拦蓄洪量减小，长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小，但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
12.
Ben Daoued Amine Mouhous-Voyneau Nassima Hamdi Yasser Duluc Claire-Marie Sergent Philippe 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(3):1059-1088
Many coastal urban areas and many coastal facilities must be protected against pluvial and marine floods, as their location near the sea is necessary. As part of the development of a Probabilistic Flood Hazard Approach (PFHA), several flood phenomena have to be modelled at the same time (or with an offset time) to estimate the contribution of each one. Modelling the combination and the dependence of several flooding sources is a key issue in the context of a PFHA. As coastal zones in France are densely populated, marine flooding represents a natural hazard threatening the coastal populations and facilities in several areas along the shore. Indeed, marine flooding is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. It is mainly generated by storm action that makes sea level rise above the tide. Furthermore, when combined with rainfall, coastal flooding can be more consequent. While there are several approaches to analyse and characterize marine flooding hazard with either extreme sea levels or intense rainfall, only few studies combine these two phenomena in a PFHA framework. Thus this study aims to develop a method for the analysis of a combined action of rainfall and sea level. This analysis is performed on the city of Le Havre, a French urban city on the English Channel coast, as a case study. In this work, we have used deterministic materials for rainfall and sea level modelling and proposed a new approach for estimating the probabilities of flooding.
相似文献13.
近年来长江中下游来沙量持续减少,河道面临长距离、长历时的冲淤调整,河道蓄泄关系发生变化,对防洪造成影响。在长江中下游河道冲淤及其蓄泄能力变化预测成果的基础上,对比计算了现状和未来河道蓄泄能力条件下,遇1954年洪水,长江上游水库防洪调度和中下游地区超额洪量的变化情况。结果表明,未来随着长江中下游河道进一步冲刷,河道槽蓄容积增加,相同防洪控制水位下的河道安全泄量增大,三峡水库在进行防洪调度时可下泄流量增大,总拦蓄洪量减小,长江中下游地区总超额洪量减小,但超额洪量在地区分布上存在从上游向下游转移的情况。 相似文献
14.
Natural hazards in Central Java Province,Indonesia: an overview 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Muh Aris Marfai Lorenz King Lalan Prasad Singh Djati Mardiatno Junun Sartohadi Danang Sri Hadmoko Anggraini Dewi 《Environmental Geology》2008,56(2):335-351
Central Java Province, Indonesia, suffers from natural hazard processes such as land subsidence, coastal inundation, flood,
volcanic eruption, earthquake, tsunami, and landslide. The occurrence of each kind of natural hazard is varied according to
the intensity of geo-processes. It is necessary to learn from the historical record of coastal inundation, flood, volcanic
eruption, earthquake, tsunami, and landslide hazards in Central Java Province to address issues of comprehensive hazard mitigation
and management action. Through the understanding about the nature and spatial distribution of natural hazards, treatments
can be done to reduce the risks. This paper presents the natural hazard phenomena in Central Java Province and provides critical
information for hazard mitigation and reduction. 相似文献
15.
Frequent flood is a concern for most of the coastal regions of India. The importance of flood maps in governing strategies for flood risk management is of prime importance. Flood inundation maps are considered dependable output generated from simulation results from hydraulic models in evaluating flood risks. In the present work, a continuous hydrologic-hydraulic model has been implemented for mapping the flood, caused by the Baitarani River of Odisha, India. A rainfall time-series data were fed into the hydrologic model and the runoff generated from the model was given as an input into the hydraulic model. The study was performed using the HEC-HMS model and the FLO-2D model to map the extent of flooding in the area. Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) 90 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data, Land use/Land cover map (LULC), soil texture data of the basin area were used to compute the topographic and hydraulic parameters. Flood inundation was simulated using the FLO-2D model and based on the flow depth, hazard zones were specified using the MAPPER tool of the hydraulic model. Bhadrak District was found to be the most hazard-prone district affected by the flood of the Baitarani River. The result of the study exhibited the hydraulic model as a utile tool for generating inundation maps. An approach for assessing the risk of flooding and proper management could help in mitigating the flood. The automated procedure for mapping and the details of the study can be used for planning flood disaster preparedness in the worst affected area.
相似文献16.
17.
Bay of Bengal cyclone extreme water level estimate uncertainty 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
18.
Zekai Şen Hussam A. Khiyami Saad G. Al-Harthy Faisal A. Al-Ammawi Ali B. Al-Balkhi Mohammed I. Al-Zahrani Hashim M. Al-Hawsawy 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(9):3563-3572
Flood inundation maps are dependent on the topographic and geomorphologic features of a wadi (drainage basin) in arid regions, which are most susceptible for potential flash flood occurrences, such as in the southwestern part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is not possible to control the potential flood hazards by using only technological instruments that forewarn the occurrences or imminence. Additionally, it would be better to prepare flood risk maps so as to delineate the risky areas to educate the administrators and local settlers. The availability of these maps is the key requirement for any urban development that entails land use allocation, identification of dam, tunnel, highway, bridge sites, and infrastructure locations for sustainable future. This paper suggests the necessary steps in flood inundation map preparation after determining the possible flood discharge. For this purpose, a set of critical cross-sections along the possible flood plain are taken in the field with surveying methods and measurements. The calculation of the average flow velocity in each section is calculated according to the cross-section geometric, hydraulic, and material properties. Synthetic rating curves (SRC) are prepared for each cross section, which are very useful especially in arid and semi-arid regions where there are no perennial surface water flows for natural rating curve measurements. All the SRCs appear in the form of power function which relates the flow depth to discharge in a given cross section. It is then possible to calculate the flood depth in the cross section through its SRC. Depending on the cross-section shape, the flood width can be calculated. The connection of a series of widths on a scaled topographic map delineates the flood inundation area. If digital elevation map (DEM) is available, then the SRCs can be integrated with these maps and the flood inundation delineation can be achieved automatically. Since DEMs are not available, the topographic maps are used for this purpose in order to delineate flood inundation areas within wadis Hali and Yiba from the southwestern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 相似文献
19.
黄河上游径流丰枯变化特征及其环流背景 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
为了揭示影响黄河上游径流丰枯变化的气候因子,为径流的长期、超长期预报与水资源的规划利用提供依据,利用相关台站的降水、径流观测资料,分析了黄河上游汛期径流的丰枯变化特征及其环流背景.结果表明:黄河上游(唐乃亥以上)流域丰、枯水段基本上是交替出现的,总体上枯水持续时间多于丰水,一个完整的丰枯循环周期大约在18 a左右.黄河上游径流的丰、枯,与大气环流的异常有着非常密切的关系,其中,西太平洋副热带高压偏西、偏强、偏北,青藏高原中部地区有西风槽存在是黄河上游汛期降水偏多、径流偏丰的两个重要因素.因此,基于汛期流量的丰枯与其所对应的环流背景之间的联系,可根据前期环流的演变特征对黄河上游汛期流量的丰枯做出大致预测. 相似文献